‘Right Back Where We Started From’: From ‘The Classics’ To Keynes, And Back Again

The purpose of this paper is to highlight the curiously circular course followed by mainstream macroeconomic thinking in recent times. Having broken from classical orthodoxy in the late 1930s via Keynes’s General Theory, over the last three or four decades the mainstream conventional wisdom, regressing rather than progressing, has now come to embrace a conception of the working of the macroeconomy which is again of a classical, essentially pre-Keynesian, character. At the core of the analysis presented in the typical contemporary macro textbook is the (neo)classical model of the labour market, which represents employment as determined (given conditions of productivity) by the terms of labour supply. While it is allowed that changes in aggregate demand may temporarily affect output and employment, the contention is that in due course employment will automatically return to its ‘natural’ (full employment) level. Unemployment is therefore identified as a merely frictional or voluntary phenomenon: involuntary unemployment - in other words persisting demand-deficient unemployment - is entirely absent from the picture. Variations in aggregate demand are understood to have a lasting impact only on the price level, not on output and employment. This in effect amounts to a return to a Pigouvian conception such as targeted by Keynes in the General Theory. We take the view that this reversion to ideas which should by now be obsolete reflects not the discovery of logical or empirical deficiencies in the Keynes analysis, but results rather from doctrinaire blindness and failure of scholarship on account of which essential features of the Keynes theory have been overlooked or misrepresented. There is an urgent need for a critical appraisal of the current conventional macroeconomic wisdom.

Estimació de les emissions de metà generades per fermentació entèrica a la ramaderia bovina a Catalunya, com a font de gasos d'efecte hivernacle (GEH)

L’emissió de GEH generats per processos relacionats amb l’activitat antropogènica ha provocat que la temperatura mitjana de la Terra augmenti, originant el que es coneix com escalfament global. Les possibles conseqüències negatives per al conjunt de la biosfera han portat a l’adopció d’acords internacionals que obliguen als diferents Estats a realitzar Inventaris Nacionals d’Emissions a l’Atmosfera. El CH4, que és exhalat o eructat com a resultat del procés de fermentació entèrica dels remugants, genera un impacte que ha de ser quantificat en els diferents inventaris. En aquest projecte s’ha realitzat l’estimació del CH4 generat per la fermentació entèrica dels bovins a Catalunya. Per aquest objectiu s’han utilitat les equacions explicitades a les directrius del Panel Intergovernamental sobre el Canvi Climàtic (IPCC), així com l’equació de Cambra, L. et al. (2008) per a la determinació del factor de conversió Ym. El resultat final rebaixa les quantitats inventariades tant per l’administració catalana com per l’espanyola.

Pragmatic approach to nutrition in the ICU: Expert opinion regarding which calorie protein target.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Since the publications of the ESPEN guidelines on enteral and parenteral nutrition in ICU, numerous studies have added information to assist the nutritional management of critically ill patients regarding the recognition of the right population to feed, the energy-protein targeting, the route and the timing to start. METHODS: We reviewed and discussed the literature related to nutrition in the ICU from 2006 until October 2013. RESULTS: To identify safe, minimal and maximal amounts for the different nutrients and at the different stages of the acute illness is necessary. These amounts might be specific for different phases in the time course of the patient's illness. The best approach is to target the energy goal defined by indirect calorimetry. High protein intake (1.5 g/kg/d) is recommended during the early phase of the ICU stay, regardless of the simultaneous calorie intake. This recommendation can reduce catabolism. Later on, high protein intake remains recommended, likely combined with a sufficient amount of energy to avoid proteolysis. CONCLUSIONS: Pragmatic recommendations are proposed to practically optimize nutritional therapy based on recent publications. However, on some issues, there is insufficient evidence to make expert recommendations.

Advances in pharmacological studies of silymarin

Silymarin is the flavonoids extracted from the seeds of Silybum marianum (L) Gearth as a mixture of three structural isomers: silybin, silydianin and silychristin, the former being the most active component. Silymarin protects liver cell membrane against hepatotoxic agents and improves liver function in experimental animals and humans. It is generally accepted that silymarin exerts a membrane-stabilizing action preventing or inhibiting membrane peroxidation. The experiments with soybean lipoxygenase showed that the three components of silymarin brought about a concentration-dependent non-competitive inhibition of the lipoxygenase. The experiments also showed an analogous interaction with animal lipoxygenase, thus showing that an inhibition of the peroxidation of the fatty acid in vivo was self-evident. Silybin almost completely suppressed the formation of PG at the highest concentration (0.3 mM) and proved to be an inhibitor of PG synthesis in vitro. In our experiments, silybin at lower dose (65 mg/Kg) decreased liver lipoperoxide content and microsomal lipoperoxidation to 84.5% and 68.55% of those of the scalded control rats respectively, and prevented the decrease of liver microsomal cytochrome p-450 content and p-nitroanisole-0-demethylase activity 24 h post-scalding. Effects of silymarin on cardiovascular systen have been studied in this university since 1980. O. O silymarin 800 mg/Kg/d or silybin 600 mg/Kg/d reduced plasma total cholesterol, LDL-C and VLDL-C. They however, enhanced HDL-C in hyperlipenic rats. Further studies showed that silymarin enhanced HDL-C in hyperlipemic rats. Further studies showed that silymarin enhanced HDL-C but didn't affect HDL-C, a property of this component which is beneficial to treatment of atherosclerosis. The results showed silymarin 80 mg or silybin 60 mg decreased in vitro platelet aggregation (porcentagem) in rats. The maximal platelet aggregation induced by ADP declined significantly, and time to reach maximal platelet aggregation and five-minute disaggregation didn't change. In our experiments, iv silybin 22,4 mg/kg lowered the amplitude and duration of diastolic blood pressure (DBP) more than those of systolic (SBP), but the descending aortic blood flow, cardiac contractility and ECG did not change significantly in anesthetized open-chest cats. The results indicated a reduction of peripheral resistance and dilatatory action on the resistant blood vessels. These effects are beneficial to coronary heart disease. We also observed the effects of silybin on morphological change, the release of glutamic oxaloacetate aminotrasferase (GOT) and lactate dehydrogenase (LDH) as well as the radioactivity of 3H-TdR incorporated into DNA in normal cardiac cells and cells infected by coxsackie B5, virus os newborn rats. The results showed that silynin did not affect the morphology of normal cell, and that the pathological change of cells infected by virus was delayed and reduced as compared to control. We have investigated the effect of silybin on synthesis and release of LTs in the cultured porcine cerebral basilar arteries (PCBA). Silybin 100 and 500 µmol/L declined the amounts of LTs released from the PCBA incubsated in the presence of A 23187, AA and indomenthacin. The result suggests that silybin can inhibit the activity of 5-lipoxygenase of cerebral blood vessel and may protect the brain from ischemia.

Chemical and pharmacological investigation of Solanum species of Brazil: a search for solasodine and other potentially useful therapeutic agents

A systematic search for solasodine, an important staring material for the partial synthesis of steroidal hormones as well as other potentially bioactive constituents of various Solanum species of Brazil has been undertaken. Thus, the fruits of S. paludosum, S. asperum, S. sessiliforum and Solanum sp. were found to contain significant amounts of solasodine. The root bark of S. paludosum which showe durare like activity yelded tomatidenol and another yet unidentified alkaloid responsible for the biological activity. The fruits of S. asperum yelded a new spirosolane alkaloid, solaparnaine. The stem bark of S. pseudo-quina showed convulsive and exitatory activity from which (25S)-isosolafloridine was identified as the active principle. In addition, the latter alkaloid was also found to show antimicrobial activity.

(Optimal) Spatial Aggregation in the Determinants of Industrial Location

Empirical studies on the determinants of industrial location typically use variables measured at the available administrative level (municipalities, counties, etc.). However, this amounts to assuming that the effects these determinants may have on the location process do not extent beyond the geographical limits of the selected site. We address the validity of this assumption by comparing results from standard count data models with those obtained by calculating the geographical scope of the spatially varying explanatory variables using a wide range of distances and alternative spatial autocorrelation measures. Our results reject the usual practice of using administrative records as covariates without making some kind of spatial correction. Keywords: industrial location, count data models, spatial statistics JEL classification: C25, C52, R11, R30

A corneal dystrophy associated with transforming growth factor beta-induced Gly623Asp mutation an amyloidogenic phenotype.

PURPOSE: To present the light and electron microscopic findings of a unique corneal dystrophy never before described in a German family carrying the Gly623Asp Mutation of the TGFBI gene with late clinical onset. DESIGN: Experimental study. PARTICIPANTS: Four affected and 6 nonaffected family members. METHODS: Slit-lamp examination, photographic documentation, and isolation of genomic DNA from peripheral blood leucocytes obtained from each family member examined. Exons 3, 4, 5, and 11 to 14 of the TGFBI gene were amplified and sequenced in these family members. Five corneal buttons of 3 affected siblings were excised at the time of penetrating keratoplasty. Light and electron microscopic examination were performed including immunohistochemistry with antibodies against keratoepithelin (KE) 2 and 15. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Clinical and histologic characteristics of corneal opacification in affected patients and presence of coding region changes in the TGFBI gene. RESULTS: The specimens showed destructive changes in Bowman's layer and the adjacent stroma. Patchy Congo red-positive amyloid deposits were found within the epithelium in 1 cornea, in Bowman's layer and in the anterior stroma of all specimens also showing KE2, but not KE15, immunostaining. Electron microscopy revealed deposits mainly located in the anterior stroma and Bowman's layer and in small amounts in the basal area of some epithelial cells. The destroyed areas were strongly Alcian blue-positive, the Masson Trichrome stain proved mainly negative for the deposits. All affected but none of the unaffected family members had a heterozygous missense mutation in exon 14 of the TGFBI gene (G-->A transition at nucleotide 1915) replacing glycin by aspartic acid amino acid (Gly623Asp) at position 623 of the KE protein. CONCLUSIONS: In contrast with the patient carrying the Gly623Asp mutation of the TGFBI gene described by Afshari et al, our cases presented with Salzmann's nodular degeneration-like clinical features and their specimens contained KE2-positive amyloid. The reason for this now "meeting the expectation histologic phenotype" is unclear. The histologic findings emphasize that this is a unique corneal dystrophy, which shares no clinical characteristics with Reis-Bücklers' dystrophy and should be treated as a distinct entity. FINANCIAL DISCLOSURE(S): The authors have no proprietary or commercial interest in any materials discussed in this article.

Bayesian Networks for Probabilistic Inference and Decision Analysis in Forensic Science

Continuing developments in science and technology mean that the amounts of information forensic scientists are able to provide for criminal investigations is ever increasing. The commensurate increase in complexity creates difficulties for scientists and lawyers with regard to evaluation and interpretation, notably with respect to issues of inference and decision. Probability theory, implemented through graphical methods, and specifically Bayesian networks, provides powerful methods to deal with this complexity. Extensions of these methods to elements of decision theory provide further support and assistance to the judicial system. Bayesian Networks for Probabilistic Inference and Decision Analysis in Forensic Science provides a unique and comprehensive introduction to the use of Bayesian decision networks for the evaluation and interpretation of scientific findings in forensic science, and for the support of decision-makers in their scientific and legal tasks. Includes self-contained introductions to probability and decision theory. Develops the characteristics of Bayesian networks, object-oriented Bayesian networks and their extension to decision models. Features implementation of the methodology with reference to commercial and academically available software. Presents standard networks and their extensions that can be easily implemented and that can assist in the reader's own analysis of real cases. Provides a technique for structuring problems and organizing data based on methods and principles of scientific reasoning. Contains a method for the construction of coherent and defensible arguments for the analysis and evaluation of scientific findings and for decisions based on them. Is written in a lucid style, suitable for forensic scientists and lawyers with minimal mathematical background. Includes a foreword by Ian Evett. The clear and accessible style of this second edition makes this book ideal for all forensic scientists, applied statisticians and graduate students wishing to evaluate forensic findings from the perspective of probability and decision analysis. It will also appeal to lawyers and other scientists and professionals interested in the evaluation and interpretation of forensic findings, including decision making based on scientific information.

Replication of dengue viruses in mosquito cell cultures: a model from ultrastructural observations

Mosquito cell cultures infected with human sera from dengue-1 and dengue-2 outbreaks, started in Rio de Janeiro by 1986 and 1990 respectively, were examined by electron microscopy at different times post the infection of cell cultures. More information was obtained about cell penetration of virus particles in the presence or not of antibodies, their pathway inside the cells, replication mode and exit. Infectiveness of the virus at those different stages can only be attributed to the particles appearing inside the trans-Golgi vesicles; most of all newly formed virus particles remain inside the RER-derived cell vesicles or inside lysosomes, even during cell lysis. Groups of larges particles, 65-75 nm in diameter at dengue-2 infections, persist during cell passage. The large amounts of smooth membrane structures, as vesicles or tabules inside the RER are attributed to a cell response to viral infection.

An Introduction to parametric and non-parametric models for bivariate positive insurance claim severity distributions

We present a real data set of claims amounts where costs related to damage are recorded separately from those related to medical expenses. Only claims with positive costs are considered here. Two approaches to density estimation are presented: a classical parametric and a semi-parametric method, based on transformation kernel density estimation. We explore the data set with standard univariate methods. We also propose ways to select the bandwidth and transformation parameters in the univariate case based on Bayesian methods. We indicate how to compare the results of alternative methods both looking at the shape of the overall density domain and exploring the density estimates in the right tail.

Vitellogenesis in insects and other groups: a review

The eggs from oviparous organisms contain large amounts of vitellus, or yolk, wich are utilized by the growing embryo. Vitellogenesis is the process of vitellus accumulation and involves massive heterosynthetic synthesis of the protein vitellogenin (Vg) and its deposition in the oocyte. This work summarizes data on Vg structure, synthesis, uptake by oocytes and its fate during embryogenesis. The hormonal control of vitellogenesis and its tissue, sex and temporal regulation are also discussed. Where it is available, data on structure and expression of Vg-coding genes are reviewed. Insect vitellogenesis is priorized although other oviparous animal groups outside insects are also treated.

Linkages of dietary patterns, international trade and land use: the case of olive oil in the European Union

Within only two decades olive oil developed from a niche product which could hardly be found in food stores outside the producing regions towards an integrated component in the diets of industrial countries. This paper discusses the impacts of the promotion of the “healthy Mediterranean diet” on land use and agro-ecosystems in the producing countries. It examines the dynamics of olive oil production, trade and consumption in the EU15 in the period 1972 to 2003 and the links between dietary patterns, trade and land use. It analyses the underlying socio-economic driving forces behind the increasing spatial disconnect between production and consumption of olive oil in the EU15 and in particular in Spain, the world largest producer during the last three decades. In the observed period olive oil consumption increased 16 fold in the non-producing EU15 countries. In the geographically limited producing regions like Spain, the 5 fold increase in export production was associated with the rapid industrialization of olive production, the conversion of vast Mediterranean landscapes to olive monocultures and a range of environmental pressures. High amounts of subsidies of the European Common Agricultural Policy and feedback loops within production and consumption systems were driving the transformation of the olive oil system. Our analysis indicates the process of change was not immediately driven by increases in demand for olive oil in non-producing countries, but rather by the institutional setting of the European Union and by concerted political interventions.

An inhibition ELISA to determine alpha macroglobulin levels in mouse plasma

A sensitive method for quantifying mouse plasma alpha-macroglobulins (AM) using an inhibition ELISA is described. AM are important plasmaproteinase inhibitors that possibly act also as immunomodulatory molecules. The standard protocol develope in our experiments involves coating well with 10 µg/ml A2M in carbonate buffer, followed by incubation with a 1:1 (v/v) mixture of the plasma to be tested (diluted 1/1000) and goat anti-AM (diluted 1/1250). This is followed by further incubation, first with the enzyme-conjugated antibody and with the substrate prior to the reading of absorbance levels of the reaction products. Standard curve samples must be included in each plate, employing known amounts of the purified Murine Alpha-2-Macroglobulin (MuA2M) used for coating, with concentrations ranging from 0.001 to 10 µg/ml. Using test samples in triplicates and a 6-point standard curve in a single ELISA plate, 25 plasma samples can be tested accurately. The method offers an useful tool for establishing AM levelsin small samples of mouse plasma.

Spatial predictions of phylogenetic diversity in conservation decision making.

Considering genetic relatedness among species has long been argued as an important step toward measuring biological diversity more accurately, rather than relying solely on species richness. Some researchers have correlated measures of phylogenetic diversity and species richness across a series of sites and suggest that values of phylogenetic diversity do not differ enough from those of species richness to justify their inclusion in conservation planning. We compared predictions of species richness and 10 measures of phylogenetic diversity by creating distribution models for 168 individual species of a species-rich plant family, the Cape Proteaceae. When we used average amounts of land set aside for conservation to compare areas selected on the basis of species richness with areas selected on the basis of phylogenetic diversity, correlations between species richness and different measures of phylogenetic diversity varied considerably. Correlations between species richness and measures that were based on the length of phylogenetic tree branches and tree shape were weaker than those that were based on tree shape alone. Elevation explained up to 31% of the segregation of species rich versus phylogenetically rich areas. Given these results, the increased availability of molecular data, and the known ecological effect of phylogenetically rich communities, consideration of phylogenetic diversity in conservation decision making may be feasible and informative.

Turning sunlight into stone: the oxalate-carbonate pathway in a tropical tree ecosystem.

An African oxalogenic tree, the iroko tree (Milicia excelsa), has the property to enhance carbonate precipitation in tropical oxisols, where such accumulations are not expected due to the acidic conditions in these types of soils. This uncommon process is linked to the oxalate-carbonate pathway, which increases soil pH through oxalate oxidation. In order to investigate the oxalate-carbonate pathway in the iroko system, fluxes of matter have been identified, described, and evaluated from field to microscopic scales. In the first centimeters of the soil profile, decaying of the organic matter allows the release of whewellite crystals, mainly due to the action of termites and saprophytic fungi. In addition, a concomitant flux of carbonate formed in wood tissues contributes to the carbonate flux and is identified as a direct consequence of wood feeding by termites. Nevertheless, calcite biomineralization of the tree is not a consequence of in situ oxalate consumption, but rather related to the oxalate oxidation inside the upper part of the soil. The consequence of this oxidation is the presence of carbonate ions in the soil solution pumped through the roots, leading to preferential mineralization of the roots and the trunk base. An ideal scenario for the iroko biomineralization and soil carbonate accumulation starts with oxalatization: as the iroko tree grows, the organic matter flux to the soil constitutes the litter, and an oxalate pool is formed on the forest ground. Then, wood rotting agents (mainly termites, saprophytic fungi, and bacteria) release significant amounts of oxalate crystals from decaying plant tissues. In addition, some of these agents are themselves producers of oxalate (e.g. fungi). Both processes contribute to a soil pool of "available" oxalate crystals. Oxalate consumption by oxalotrophic bacteria can then start. Carbonate and calcium ions present in the soil solution represent the end products of the oxalate-carbonate pathway. The solution is pumped through the roots, leading to carbonate precipitation. The main pools of carbon are clearly identified as the organic matter (the tree and its organic products), the oxalate crystals, and the various carbonate features. A functional model based on field observations and diagenetic investigations with δ13C signatures of the various compartments involved in the local carbon cycle is proposed. It suggests that the iroko ecosystem can act as a long-term carbon sink, as long as the calcium source is related to non-carbonate rocks. Consequently, this carbon sink, driven by the oxalate carbonate pathway around an iroko tree, constitutes a true carbon trapping ecosystem as defined by ecological theory.