Multivariate prediction

The problem of prediction is considered in a multidimensional setting. Extending an idea presented by Barndorff-Nielsen and Cox, a predictive density for a multivariate random variable of interest is proposed. This density has the form of an estimative density plus a correction term. It gives simultaneous prediction regions with coverage error of smaller asymptotic order than the estimative density. A simulation study is also presented showing the magnitude of the improvement with respect to the estimative method.

Blocking hypoxia-induced autophagy in tumors restores cytotoxic T-cell activity and promotes regression.

The relationship between hypoxic stress, autophagy, and specific cell-mediated cytotoxicity remains unknown. This study shows that hypoxia-induced resistance of lung tumor to cytolytic T lymphocyte (CTL)-mediated lysis is associated with autophagy induction in target cells. In turn, this correlates with STAT3 phosphorylation on tyrosine 705 residue (pSTAT3) and HIF-1α accumulation. Inhibition of autophagy by siRNA targeting of either beclin1 or Atg5 resulted in impairment of pSTAT3 and restoration of hypoxic tumor cell susceptibility to CTL-mediated lysis. Furthermore, inhibition of pSTAT3 in hypoxic Atg5 or beclin1-targeted tumor cells was found to be associated with the inhibition Src kinase (pSrc). Autophagy-induced pSTAT3 and pSrc regulation seemed to involve the ubiquitin proteasome system and p62/SQSTM1. In vivo experiments using B16-F10 melanoma tumor cells indicated that depletion of beclin1 resulted in an inhibition of B16-F10 tumor growth and increased tumor apoptosis. Moreover, in vivo inhibition of autophagy by hydroxychloroquine in B16-F10 tumor-bearing mice and mice vaccinated with tyrosinase-related protein-2 peptide dramatically increased tumor growth inhibition. Collectively, this study establishes a novel functional link between hypoxia-induced autophagy and the regulation of antigen-specific T-cell lysis and points to a major role of autophagy in the control of in vivo tumor growth.

Adoption of the Healthy Heart Kit by Alberta family physicians

OBJECTIVE: The Healthy Heart Kit (HHK) is a risk management and patient education kit for the prevention of cardiovascular disease (CVD) and the promotion of CV health. There are currently no published data examining predictors of HHK use by physicians. The main objective of this study was to examine the association between physicians' characteristics (socio-demographic, cognitive, and behavioural) and the use of the HHK. METHODS: All registered family physicians in Alberta (n=3068) were invited to participate in the "Healthy Heart Kit" Study. Consenting physicians (n=153) received the Kit and were requested to use it for two months. At the end of this period, a questionnaire collected data on the frequency of Kit use by physicians, as well as socio-demographic, cognitive, and behavioural variables pertaining to the physicians. RESULTS: The questionnaire was returned by 115 physicians (follow-up rate = 75%). On a scale ranging from 0 to 100, the mean score of Kit use was 61 [SD=26]. A multiple linear regression showed that "agreement with the Kit" and the degree of "confidence in using the Kit" was strongly associated with Kit use, explaining 46% of the variability for Kit use. Time since graduation was inversely associated with Kit use, and a trend was observed for smaller practices to be associated with lower use. CONCLUSION: Given these findings, future research and practice should explore innovative strategies to gain initial agreement among physicians to employ such clinical tools. Participation of older physicians and solo-practitioners in this process should be emphasized.

Analysis and spatial modeling of the indoor radon Swiss data

The present research deals with an important public health threat, which is the pollution created by radon gas accumulation inside dwellings. The spatial modeling of indoor radon in Switzerland is particularly complex and challenging because of many influencing factors that should be taken into account. Indoor radon data analysis must be addressed from both a statistical and a spatial point of view. As a multivariate process, it was important at first to define the influence of each factor. In particular, it was important to define the influence of geology as being closely associated to indoor radon. This association was indeed observed for the Swiss data but not probed to be the sole determinant for the spatial modeling. The statistical analysis of data, both at univariate and multivariate level, was followed by an exploratory spatial analysis. Many tools proposed in the literature were tested and adapted, including fractality, declustering and moving windows methods. The use of Quan-tité Morisita Index (QMI) as a procedure to evaluate data clustering in function of the radon level was proposed. The existing methods of declustering were revised and applied in an attempt to approach the global histogram parameters. The exploratory phase comes along with the definition of multiple scales of interest for indoor radon mapping in Switzerland. The analysis was done with a top-to-down resolution approach, from regional to local lev¬els in order to find the appropriate scales for modeling. In this sense, data partition was optimized in order to cope with stationary conditions of geostatistical models. Common methods of spatial modeling such as Κ Nearest Neighbors (KNN), variography and General Regression Neural Networks (GRNN) were proposed as exploratory tools. In the following section, different spatial interpolation methods were applied for a par-ticular dataset. A bottom to top method complexity approach was adopted and the results were analyzed together in order to find common definitions of continuity and neighborhood parameters. Additionally, a data filter based on cross-validation was tested with the purpose of reducing noise at local scale (the CVMF). At the end of the chapter, a series of test for data consistency and methods robustness were performed. This lead to conclude about the importance of data splitting and the limitation of generalization methods for reproducing statistical distributions. The last section was dedicated to modeling methods with probabilistic interpretations. Data transformation and simulations thus allowed the use of multigaussian models and helped take the indoor radon pollution data uncertainty into consideration. The catego-rization transform was presented as a solution for extreme values modeling through clas-sification. Simulation scenarios were proposed, including an alternative proposal for the reproduction of the global histogram based on the sampling domain. The sequential Gaussian simulation (SGS) was presented as the method giving the most complete information, while classification performed in a more robust way. An error measure was defined in relation to the decision function for data classification hardening. Within the classification methods, probabilistic neural networks (PNN) show to be better adapted for modeling of high threshold categorization and for automation. Support vector machines (SVM) on the contrary performed well under balanced category conditions. In general, it was concluded that a particular prediction or estimation method is not better under all conditions of scale and neighborhood definitions. Simulations should be the basis, while other methods can provide complementary information to accomplish an efficient indoor radon decision making.

Analytical Measures of Learners' Written Interlanguage

This paper aims at reconsidering some analytical measures to best encapsulate the interlanguage, in writing, of young beginner learners of English as a foreign language in the light of previous and work-in-progress research conducted within the BAF project, and in particular, whether clause and sentence length should be best viewed as a fluency or syntactic complexity measusre or as part of a different construct. In the light of a factor analysis (Navés, forthcoming) and multivariate and correlation studies (Navés et al. 2003, Navés, 2006, Torres et al. 2006) it becomes clear that the relationship between different analytical measures is also dependent on learner¿s cognitive maturity (age) and proficiency (amount of instruction). Finally, clause and sentence length should not be viewed as either a fluency or sytactic complexity measure but as part of a different construct. It is concluded that further research using regression analysis and cluster analysis is neeed in order to identify and validate the constructs of the writing components and their measurements.

Two Signatures For A New Blood-Based Test For Colorectal Cancer Screening

Background: Detection rates for adenoma and early colorectal cancer (CRC) are unsatisfactory due to low compliance towards invasive screening procedures such as colonoscopy. There is a large unmet screening need calling for an accurate, non-invasive and cost-effective test to screen for early neoplastic and pre-neoplastic lesions. Our goal is to identify effective biomarker combinations to develop a screening test aimed at detecting precancerous lesions and early CRC stages, based on a multigene assay performed on peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMC).Methods: A pilot study was conducted on 92 subjects. Colonoscopy revealed 21 CRC, 30 adenomas larger than 1 cm and 41 healthy controls. A panel of 103 biomarkers was selected by two approaches: a candidate gene approach based on literature review and whole transcriptome analysis of a subset of this cohort by Illumina TAG profiling. Blood samples were taken from each patient and PBMC purified. Total RNA was extracted and the 103 biomarkers were tested by multiplex RT-qPCR on the cohort. Different univariate and multivariate statistical methods were applied on the PCR data and 60 biomarkers, with significant p-value (< 0.01) for most of the methods, were selected.Results: The 60 biomarkers are involved in several different biological functions, such as cell adhesion, cell motility, cell signaling, cell proliferation, development and cancer. Two distinct molecular signatures derived from the biomarker combinations were established based on penalized logistic regression to separate patients without lesion from those with CRC or adenoma. These signatures were validated using bootstrapping method, leading to a separation of patients without lesion from those with CRC (Se 67%, Sp 93%, AUC 0.87) and from those with adenoma larger than 1cm (Se 63%, Sp 83%, AUC 0.77). In addition, the organ and disease specificity of these signatures was confirmed by means of patients with other cancer types and inflammatory bowel diseases.Conclusions: The two defined biomarker combinations effectively detect the presence of CRC and adenomas larger than 1 cm with high sensitivity and specificity. A prospective, multicentric, pivotal study is underway in order to validate these results in a larger cohort.

Outcome of patients with acute coronary syndrome in hospitals of different sizes in Switzerland

Objective: To assess the impact of patient admission in different hospital types in Switzerland on early in-hospital and 1-year outcomes in patients with acute coronary syndrome (ACS).Methods: From 1997 to 2009, 31,010 ACS patients from 76 Swiss hospitals were enrolled in the AMIS Plus registry. Large tertiary teaching institutions with 24 hour/7 day cardiac catheterization facilities were classified as type A hospitals, all others as type B. One-year outcome was studied in a subgroup of patients admitted after 2005. Multivariate logistic regression models were used to calculate the odds ratios (OR with 95%CI) for independent predictors of mortality and major adverse cardiac events (MACE).Results: There were 11 type A hospitals with admissions of 15,987 (52%) patients and 65 type B hospitals with 15,023 (48%) patients. Patients initially admitted into B hospitals were older, more frequently female, hypertensive and diabetic, had more severe comorbidities and more frequently NSTE-ACS/UA. They were less likely to receive aspirin, clopidogrel and GPIIb/IIIa antagonists. STE-ACS patients initially admitted into B hospitals received more thrombolysis than those admitted into A hospitals, but less percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI). From the patients admitted to B hospitals, 5271 (35%) were transferred for intervention. Crude in-hospital mortality and MACE were higher in patients from B hospitals. Crude 1-year mortality of 3747 ACS patients followed up was higher in patients initially admitted into B hospitals, but no differences were found for MACE. Hospital type, after adjustment for age, risk factors, type of ACS and co-morbidities, was not an independent predictor of in-hospital mortality (OR 0.94; 0.76-1.16), in-hospital MACE (0.98; 0.82-1.17), 1-year mortality or 1-year MACE (1.06; 0.85-1.33). Analysis of the time of admission indicated a crude outcome in favor of hospitalization during duty-hours but no significant effect could be documented for 1-year outcome.Conclusion: ACS patients admitted to type B hospitals were older, had more severe co-morbidities, more NSTEACS and received less intensive treatment. However, after correcting for baseline inequalities, early and mid-term outcomes were similar regardless of hospital type. Ultimate patient outcome thus does not appear to be influenced by the type of hospital where the initial admission takes place. Appropriate early referral of selected patients probably partly explains this finding.

Clinical trial substantiates the predictive value of O-6-methylguanine-DNA methyltransferase promoter methylation in glioblastoma patients treated with temozolomide.

PURPOSE: In the setting of a prospective clinical trial, we determined the predictive value of the methylation status of the O-6-methylguanine-DNA methyltransferase (MGMT) promoter for outcome in glioblastoma patients treated with the alkylating agent temozolomide. Expression of this excision repair enzyme has been associated with resistance to alkylating chemotherapy. EXPERIMENTAL DESIGN: The methylation status of MGMT in the tumor biopsies was evaluated in 38 patients undergoing resection for newly diagnosed glioblastoma and enrolled in a Phase II trial testing concomitant and adjuvant temozolomide and radiation. The epigenetic silencing of the MGMT gene was determined using methylation-specific PCR. RESULTS: Inactivation of the MGMT gene by promoter methylation was associated with longer survival (P = 0.0051; Log-rank test). At 18 months, survival was 62% (16 of 26) for patients testing positive for a methylated MGMT promoter but reached only 8% (1 of 12) in absence of methylation (P = 0.002; Fisher's exact test). In the presence of other clinically relevant factors, methylation of the MGMT promoter remains the only significant predictor (P = 0.017; Cox regression). CONCLUSIONS: This prospective clinical trial identifies MGMT-methylation status as an independent predictor for glioblastoma patients treated with a methylating agent. The association of the epigenetic inactivation of the DNA repair gene MGMT with better outcome in this homogenous cohort may have important implications for the design of future trials and supports efforts to deplete MGMT by O-6-benzylguanine, a noncytotoxic substrate of this enzyme.

Assessment of vascular invasion by bone and soft tissue tumours of the limbs: usefulness of MDCT angiography.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the accuracy of computed tomography angiography (CTA) in predicting arterial encasement by limb tumours, by comparing CTA with surgical findings (gold standard). METHODS: Preoperative CTA images of 55 arteries in 48 patients were assessed for arterial status: cross-sectional CTA images were scored as showing a fat plane between artery and tumour (score 0), slight contact between artery and tumour (score 1), partial arterial encasement (score 2) or total arterial encasement (score 3). Reformatted CTA images were assessed for arterial displacement, rigid wall, stenosis or occlusion. At surgery, arteries were classified as free or surgically encased; 45 arteries were free and 10 were surgically encased. RESULTS: Multivariate logistic regression identified the axial CTA score as a relevant predictor for arterial encasement and subsequent vascular intervention during surgery. All sites where CTA showed a fat plane between the tumour and the artery were classified as free at surgery (n = 28/28). The sensitivity of total arterial encasement on CTA (score 3) was 90%, specificity 93%, accuracy 93% and positive likelihood ratio 13.5. CONCLUSION: CTA evidence of total arterial encasement is a highly specific indication of arterial encasement. The presence of fat between the tumour and the artery on CTA rules out arterial involvement at surgery.

Looking for Validity or Testing It? The Perils of Stepwise Regression, Extreme-Scores Analysis, Heteroscedasticity, and Measurement Error

When researchers introduce a new test they have to demonstrate that it is valid, using unbiased designs and suitable statistical procedures. In this article we use Monte Carlo analyses to highlight how incorrect statistical procedures (i.e., stepwise regression, extreme scores analyses) or ignoring regression assumptions (e.g., heteroscedasticity) contribute to wrong validity estimates. Beyond these demonstrations, and as an example, we re-examined the results reported by Warwick, Nettelbeck, and Ward (2010) concerning the validity of the Ability Emotional Intelligence Measure (AEIM). Warwick et al. used the wrong statistical procedures to conclude that the AEIM was incrementally valid beyond intelligence and personality traits in predicting various outcomes. In our re-analysis, we found that the reliability-corrected multiple correlation of their measures with personality and intelligence was up to .69. Using robust statistical procedures and appropriate controls, we also found that the AEIM did not predict incremental variance in GPA, stress, loneliness, or well-being, demonstrating the importance for testing validity instead of looking for it.

Contribution of multimorbidity to overall mortality in the population-based CoLaus study

Introduction : Multimorbidity (MM) is currently a major health concern for hospitalized patients but little is known about the relative importance of MM in the general population. Accordingly we assessed whether MM could be a good predictor of overall mortality. Method : Data from the population based CoLaus Study: 3239 participants (1731 women, mean age 50+/-9 years) followed for a median time of 5.4 years (range 0.4 to 8.5 years). MM was defined as presenting >=2 morbidities according to Barnett et al. (27 items, measured data). Survival analysis was conducted using Cox regression. Results : During follow-up, 53 (1.6%) participants died. Participants who died had a higher number of morbidities (2.4 +/- 1.6 vs. 1.9 +/- 1.5, p<0.05) and had a higher prevalence of MM (69.8% vs. 55.9%, p<0.05). On bivariate analysis, presence of MM (defined as a yes/no variable) was significantly related with overall mortality: relative risk (RR) of 1.84, 95% confidence interval [1.02; 3.31], p<0.05 (see figure), but this association became non-significant after adjusting for age, gender and smoking: RR=1.68 [0.93; 3.04], p=0.09. Similar results were obtained when using the number of morbidities: RR for an extra morbidity 1.22 [1.05; 1.44], p<0.02; after adjusting for age, gender and smoking, RR=1.16 [0.99; 1.37], p=0.07. Conclusion : During a short 5 year observation period, measured MM in the general population is associated with overall mortality. This association becomes borderline significant after multivariate adjustment. These observations will have to be confirmed during a longer follow-up period. This increased mortality in MM patients may require developing specific strategies of screening and prevention.

Viral genotype-specific role of PNPLA3, PPARG, MTTP, and IL28B in hepatitis C virus-associated steatosis.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Steatosis is a prominent feature of hepatitis C, especially in patients infected with genotype 3. The analysis of genetic polymorphisms influencing steatosis in chronic hepatitis C has been limited by the studies' small sample size, and important single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs), such as those in the patatin-like phospholipase family 3 protein (PNPLA3), were never evaluated. METHODS: We analyzed the role of SNPs, from 19 systematically selected candidate genes, on steatosis in 626 Caucasian hepatitis C virus (HCV) infected patients. SNPs were extracted from a genome-wide association-generated dataset. Associations of alleles with the presence and/or different severity of steatosis were evaluated by univariate and multivariate logistic regression, accounting for all relevant covariates. RESULTS: The risk of steatosis was increased by carriage of I148M in PNPLA3, but only in patients with HCV genotypes non-3 (odds ratio [OR]=1.9, 95% confidence interval [CI]=1.6-2.3, p<0.001) and similar, albeit weaker associations were found for SNPs in peroxisome proliferator-activated receptor-γ (PPARG) and interleukin-28B (IL28B). Carriage of a SNP in the microsomal triglyceride transfer protein (MTTP) increased the risk of steatosis, but only in patients with HCV genotype 3 (rs1800803, OR=3.4, 95% CI=2.4-4.9, p=0.001). CONCLUSIONS: The rs738409 SNP in PNPLA3 is associated with an increased risk of steatosis in patients infected with HCV genotypes non-3. Host genes affect steatosis depending on the infecting HCV genotype, suggesting their interaction with viral factors.

Adapting football to the child: an application of the logistic regression model in observational mewthodology.

Logistic regression is included into the analysis techniques which are valid for observationalmethodology. However, its presence at the heart of thismethodology, and more specifically in physical activity and sports studies, is scarce. With a view to highlighting the possibilities this technique offers within the scope of observational methodology applied to physical activity and sports, an application of the logistic regression model is presented. The model is applied in the context of an observational design which aims to determine, from the analysis of use of the playing area, which football discipline (7 a side football, 9 a side football or 11 a side football) is best adapted to the child"s possibilities. A multiple logistic regression model can provide an effective prognosis regarding the probability of a move being successful (reaching the opposing goal area) depending on the sector in which the move commenced and the football discipline which is being played.

HDR brachytherapy boost and external radiotherapy for unfavorable prostate cancer patients

Purpose/Objective: To evaluate the outcome of prostate cancer patients treated with a combination of HDR Brachytherapy boost (HDR-BT) and 3D conformal external pelvic radiotherapy (EBRT) in a dose escalation study. Materials and Methods: 162 patients were followed between November 2004 and December 2010 . Two different dose escalation groups were done: group 1 (n= 92), 1 fraction HDR boost (9-10 Gy ) followed by EBRT (60 Gy in 6 weeks) - BED: 203-216 Gy and group 2 (n=70): 2 fraction HDR boost (18-19 Gy), 6 hours interval between fractions, followed by EBRT (46 Gy in 4.5 weeks) - BED: 233.3 -247 Gy; 116 pts (71.6%) received concomitant androgen deprivation. Patients were classified according to the MSKCC criteria into high (N=137) and intermediate (N=25) risk. Phoenix biochemical failure definition was used. Toxicity was scored by Radiation Morbidity Scoring Criteria (RTOG) Results: The mean follow-up was 41 (range 7-84) months. The 7- years cancer-specific and overall survival was 100% an 92%, respectively. The 7 years actuarial biochemical control rate was 89% and 100% for group 1 and 2, respectively. One patient from group 1 and two patients from group 2 never reached a low nadir. Two patients developed distant metastases 12 and 16 months after the treatment. In a multivariate Cox-regression analysis neither treatment nor risk group (intermediate vs. high risk) were associated with increased risk for biochemical failure. The RTOG grade 3 genitourinary early toxicity was 1.0% and 8.5% while gastrointestinal/genitourinary late toxicity was 7.6% and 1.4% for group 1 and 2, respectively Conclusions: HDR BT boost followed by EBRT appears to be a safe, feasible and effective treatment for patients with unfavorable localized prostate cancer. This study shows a beneficial effect on biochemical control in group 2 pts, however without statistical significance. Higher radiation doses (BED 233.3-247 Gy) do not seem to carry extra toxicity.