WINE GRAPE QUALITY OF GRAPEVINES GROWN IN THE CERRADO ECOREGION OF BRAZIL

Aims: Geographical indication plays an important role in the improvement of wine quality. In this context, the search for new grape growing areas has been constant. The Sao Francisco River Valley in the cerrado of Minas Gerais State (Brazil) has been pointed out in the Geoviticulture Multicriteria Climatic Classification System (MCC System) as a potentially winegrowing region, especially considering the autumn-winter period when night temperatures are favorable to grape ripening. In this work, we studied the maturation curves and fruit composition of four wine grape varieties (Syrah, Merlot, Cabernet-Sauvignon and Cabernet Franc) in two growing seasons in order to validate the state of Minas Gerais as a new winegrowing region in Brazil. Methods and results: Quality parameters (berry weight, pH, titratable acidity and total soluble solids) were measured weekly from veraison to harvest, and sugar, organic acid, anthocyanin and phenolic concentrations were determined in must and berry skins and seeds at harvest. Syrah berries showed the highest weight throughout maturation which contributed to higher yield (8.92 ton ha(-1)), followed closely by Merlot (8.07 ton ha(-1)). Bern, sugar concentrations were higher and malic acid levels were lower than the values usually observed in wine grapes harvested during summer in traditional winegrowing regions in Brazil. Cabernet Franc showed lower levels of anthocyanins and skin phenolics per kg berries and the highest values of seed phenolics, which were not affected by growing season. Conclusion: Weather conditions of the cerrado of Minas Gerais State in Brazil during winter allowed complete maturation of Cabernet-Sauvignon, Cabernet Franc, Merlot and Syrah cultivars as revealed by the satisfactory sugar, anthocyanin and skin phenolic accumulation. Significance and impact of the study: This study revealed the potential of the cerrado ecoregion in the northeast of Minas Gerais to become a new winemaking region in Brazil.

On compliance of business processes with business contracts

This paper addresses the problem of ensuring compliance of business processes, implemented within and across organisational boundaries, with the constraints stated in related business contracts. In order to deal with the complexity of this problem we propose two solutions that allow for a systematic and increasingly automated support for addressing two specific compliance issues. One solution provides a set of guidelines for progressively transforming contract conditions into business processes that are consistent with contract conditions thus avoiding violation of the rules in contract. Another solution compares rules in business contracts and rules in business processes to check for possible inconsistencies. Both approaches rely on a computer interpretable representation of contract conditions that embodies contract semantics. This semantics is described in terms of a logic based formalism allowing for the description of obligations, prohibitions, permissions and violations conditions in contracts. This semantics was based on an analysis of typical building blocks of many commercial, financial and government contracts. The study proved that our contract formalism provides a good foundation for describing key types of conditions in contracts, and has also given several insights into valuable transformation techniques and formalisms needed to establish better alignment between these two, traditionally separate areas of research and endeavour. The study also revealed a number of new areas of research, some of which we intend to address in near future.

Development of educational policy and early intervention for learning difficulties in Australia: In the case of Queensland

This paper aims to describe the historical outline and current development of the educational policy for students with learning difficulties in Australia, focusing especially on the state of Queensland. In order to develop educational policy of learning difficulities at the state level, the concept of learning difficulities had been discussed until the middle of the 1970's. Receiving the submissions which argued strongly against a diagnostically-oriented definition of learning disabilities, the Select Comittee concluded that there was much conceptual confusion regarding the definition and cause of learining difficulties that might take many years to resolve. Despite that it was recongnised that action was needed to assist children by looking at their "total learning environmerit", and recommended the development of an educational policy for students with learning difficulties. During 1980's, support teachers for students with learning difficulties were employed in many schools. Scince the early 1980's support teachers have been making their efforts in regular classrooms rather than in the resource rooms. Their roles have been to help students with learning difficulties using effective and specific skills, and to consult with the regular classroom teacher in solving the problems related to learning difficulties in regular classes. Currently, the support system for students with learning difficulties has been employed to organize a more systematic and broader approach in Queensland based on the accountability of schools. In the context of enphasizing literacy and numeracy, a systematic whole school approach and particular programs, such as the Year 2 Diagnostic Net and Reading Recovery, have been introduced into the educational system for early identification and early intervention.

Increasing profits and reducing risks in crop production using participatory systems simulation approaches

The development of cropping systems simulation capabilities world-wide combined with easy access to powerful computing has resulted in a plethora of agricultural models and consequently, model applications. Nonetheless, the scientific credibility of such applications and their relevance to farming practice is still being questioned. Our objective in this paper is to highlight some of the model applications from which benefits for farmers were or could be obtained via changed agricultural practice or policy. Changed on-farm practice due to the direct contribution of modelling, while keenly sought after, may in some cases be less achievable than a contribution via agricultural policies. This paper is intended to give some guidance for future model applications. It is not a comprehensive review of model applications, nor is it intended to discuss modelling in the context of social science or extension policy. Rather, we take snapshots around the globe to 'take stock' and to demonstrate that well-defined financial and environmental benefits can be obtained on-farm from the use of models. We highlight the importance of 'relevance' and hence the importance of true partnerships between all stakeholders (farmer, scientists, advisers) for the successful development and adoption of simulation approaches. Specifically, we address some key points that are essential for successful model applications such as: (1) issues to be addressed must be neither trivial nor obvious; (2) a modelling approach must reduce complexity rather than proliferate choices in order to aid the decision-making process (3) the cropping systems must be sufficiently flexible to allow management interventions based on insights gained from models. The pro and cons of normative approaches (e.g. decision support software that can reach a wide audience quickly but are often poorly contextualized for any individual client) versus model applications within the context of an individual client's situation will also be discussed. We suggest that a tandem approach is necessary whereby the latter is used in the early stages of model application for confidence building amongst client groups. This paper focuses on five specific regions that differ fundamentally in terms of environment and socio-economic structure and hence in their requirements for successful model applications. Specifically, we will give examples from Australia and South America (high climatic variability, large areas, low input, technologically advanced); Africa (high climatic variability, small areas, low input, subsistence agriculture); India (high climatic variability, small areas, medium level inputs, technologically progressing; and Europe (relatively low climatic variability, small areas, high input, technologically advanced). The contrast between Australia and Europe will further demonstrate how successful model applications are strongly influenced by the policy framework within which producers operate. We suggest that this might eventually lead to better adoption of fully integrated systems approaches and result in the development of resilient farming systems that are in tune with current climatic conditions and are adaptable to biophysical and socioeconomic variability and change. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Benefits, harms and costs of screening mammography in women 70 years and over: a systematic review

Objective: To assess the (i) benefits, (ii) harms and (iii) costs of continuing mammographic screening for women 70 years and over. Data sources and synthesis: (i) We conducted a MEDLINE search (1966 - July 2000) for decision-analytic models estimating life-expectancy gains from screening in older women. The five studies meeting the inclusion criteria were critically appraised using standard criteria. We estimated relative benefit from each model's estimate of effectiveness of screening in older women relative to that in women aged 50-69 years using the same model. (ii) With data from BreastScreen Queensland, we constructed balance sheets of the consequences of screening for women in 10-year age groups (40-49 to 80-89 years), and (iii) we used a validated model to estimate the marginal cost-effectiveness of extending screening to women 70 years and over. Results: For women aged 70-79 years, the relative benefit was estimated as 40%-72%, and 18%-62% with adjustment for the impact of screening on quality of life. For women over 80 years the relative benefit was about a third, and with quality-of-life adjustment only 14%, that in women aged 50-69 years. (ii) Of 10 000 Australian women participating in ongoing screening, about 400 are recalled for further testing, and, depending on age, about 70-112 undergo biopsy and about 19-80 cancers are detected. (iii) Cost-effectiveness estimates for extending the upper age limit for mammographic screening from 69 to 79 years range from $8119 to $27 751 per quality-adjusted life-year saved, which compares favourably with extending screening to women aged 40-49 years (estimated at between $24 000 and $65 000 per life-year saved). Conclusions: Women 70 years and over, in consultation with their healthcare providers, may want to decide for themselves whether to continue mammographic screening. Decision-support materials are needed for women in this age group.

SPAnDX: a process-based population dynamics model to explore management and climate change impacts on an invasive alien plant, Acacia nilotica

This paper describes a process-based metapopulation dynamics and phenology model of prickly acacia, Acacia nilotica, an invasive alien species in Australia. The model, SPAnDX, describes the interactions between riparian and upland sub-populations of A. nilotica within livestock paddocks, including the effects of extrinsic factors such as temperature, soil moisture availability and atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide. The model includes the effects of management events such as changing the livestock species or stocking rate, applying fire, and herbicide application. The predicted population behaviour of A. nilotica was sensitive to climate. Using 35 years daily weather datasets for five representative sites spanning the range of conditions that A. nilotica is found in Australia, the model predicted biomass levels that closely accord with expected values at each site. SPAnDX can be used as a decision-support tool in integrated weed management, and to explore the sensitivity of cultural management practices to climate change throughout the range of A. nilotica. The cohort-based DYMEX modelling package used to build and run SPAnDX provided several advantages over more traditional population modelling approaches (e.g. an appropriate specific formalism (discrete time, cohort-based, process-oriented), user-friendly graphical environment, extensible library of reusable components, and useful and flexible input/output support framework). (C) 2003 Published by Elsevier Science B.V.

Desenvolvimento e avaliação da acurácia do sistema de filtração (BacFil 6.0) na detecção de bacilos álcool-ácido resistentes em amostras de lavado broncoalveolar de pacientes com suspeita de tuberculose

A baciloscopia é o principal método diagnóstico da tuberculose (TB) em razão do seu baixo custo, rapidez e facilidade de execução. Porém sua sensibilidade é baixa, principalmente nas formas paucibacilares da doença. Nesse sentido, novas metodologias que resultem no aumento da sensibilidade da baciloscopia tornam-se absolutamente necessárias. Neste estudo, nos propusemos a aprimorar e padronizar o sistema de filtração BacFil e avaliar sua performance e acurácia em amostras paucibacilares (lavado broncoalveolar). Para alcançar esses objetivos desenvolvemos o estudo em duas fases. Na primeira fase, foram realizados ensaios para definir: 1) utilização de membranas brancas para visualização de BAAR corados por Auramina-O; 2) aumento do volume de NALC, utilização de pérolas de vidro no processo de digestão das amostras e mudança no sistema do suporte do pré-filtro; 3) meios de fixação da membrana de filtração na lâmina de microscopia; 4) limite de detecção da técnica; 5) aumento do volume de NaOCl e a influência desse aumento na visualização de BAAR na membrana. Verificou-se que: a membrana de policarbonato branca tem a mesma eficiência da membrana de policarbonato preta na visualização de BAAR fluorescentes; o método modificado utilizando maior concentração de NALC, pérolas de vidro e sistema de pré-filtro baseado em orifícios obteve 98% de passagem das amostras pelo sistema; a melhor forma de fixação da membrana na lâmina foi obtida por intermédio da utilização de fita dupla face; o limite de detecção da técnica de filtração utilizando o sistema BacFil versão 6.0 foi de 2 a 9 BAAR por mililitro de suspensão bacteriana com D.O de 0,250 ± 0,01 a 625nm; o aumento da concentração de NaOCl para 10% ajuda na passagem de um maior volume de amostra pelo sistema, porém ocasiona a diminuição da quantidade BAAR na membrana de filtração após o período necessário para todo o processo. Na segunda fase foi avaliado acurácia da técnica padronizada em 101 amostras de lavado broncoalveolar (LBA) de pacientes com suspeita de TB provenientes do Hospital Universitário Cassiano Antônio de Moraes. Observou-se que a sensibilidade da técnica de filtração (BacFil versão 6.0) foi de 76% e especificidade de 95%. A sensibilidade obtida foi significativamente maior do que a observada na baciloscopia após centrifugação que foi de 59% (p = 0,001). No entanto, constatou-se uma diminuição de especificidade na técnica de filtração (95%) em relação a técnica de 8 centrifugação (99%). Concluímos que as modificações realizadas nos sistema de filtração permitiu sanar os problemas técnicos apresentados nas versões anteriores e aumentar a sensibilidade da baciloscopia de amostras paucibacilares (lavado broncoalveolar) para o diagnóstico da TB pulmonar.

Modelos quantitativos de apoio as decisões: II

O sucesso da aplicação de técnicas de Análise das Decisões como apoio em problemas com um único objetivo predominante abriu caminho para estudos de problemas mais ambiciosos como os de decisões com multicritérios e decisões e de grupo (estes dois tipos utilizam metodologias muito semelhantes). Como evolução natural da Análise das Decisões, resultou a metodologia MAUT (Multi-Attribute Utility Theory). Seu rigorismo teórico torna as aplicações difíceis para um analista menos preparado. Como conseqüência, surgiu a metodologia AHP (Analytic Hierarchy Process) de utilização extremamente simples. A crítica ao AHP veio da escola européia que criou uma série de métodos conhecidos pela abreviação comum: MCDA (Multicriteria Decision Aid).

Sistema de gestão e controlo da atribuição de endereçamento de rede

Com a evolução tecnológica, a informática assumiu um papel fulcral na nossa vida actual tanto numa vertente doméstica como para as mais variadíssimas organizações. As redes IP estão disseminadas por todo o lado, escritórios, habitações, estabelecimentos de ensino, espaços comerciais, com as mais diversas topologias e dimensões, que como qualquer recurso devem ser bem geridas. O presente projecto insere-se neste contexto, pretendendo criar um sistema para dar apoio no controlo e gestão de endereçamento IP dados por um servidor DHCP. A problemática central que este projecto pretende tratar é a detecção da configuração forçada de endereços IP por parte dos utilizadores, notificando tais situações aos administradores de rede. O sistema é constituído por vários componentes como Linux, MySQL, ISC DHCP, SNMP, PHP, APACHE e irá interagir com equipamentos de rede que possuam tabelas de endereços para que a informação, nestas encontradas, seja comparada com a informação dos endereços fornecidos pelo servidor DHCP. O sistema dá suporte a uma página web que pretende auxiliar algumas configurações e fornecer informações estatísticas sobre a rede.

Sistema de apoio à criminologia

Este trabalho consiste no desenvolvimento de um Sistema de Apoio à Criminologia – SAC, onde se pretende ajudar os detectives/analistas na prevenção proactiva da criminalidade e na gestão dos seus recursos materiais e humanos, bem como impulsionar estudos sobre a alta incidência de determinados tipos de crime numa dada região. Historicamente, a resolução de crimes tem sido uma prerrogativa da justiça penal e dos seus especialistas e, com o aumento da utilização de sistemas computacionais no sistema judicial para registar todos os dados que dizem respeito a ocorrências de crimes, dados de suspeitos e vítimas, registo criminal de indivíduos e outros dados que fluem dentro da organização, cresce a necessidade de transformar estes dados em informação proveitosa no combate à criminalidade. O SAC tira partido de técnicas de extracção de conhecimento de informação e aplica-as a um conjunto de dados de ocorrências de crimes numa dada região e espaço temporal, bem como a um conjunto de variáveis que influenciam a criminalidade, as quais foram estudadas e identificadas neste trabalho. Este trabalho é constituído por um modelo de extracção de conhecimento de informação e por uma aplicação que permite ao utilizador fornecer um conjunto de dados adequado, garantindo a máxima eficácia do modelo.

An architecture for an effective usage of data mining in business intelligence systems

Business Intelligence (BI) is one emergent area of the Decision Support Systems (DSS) discipline. Over the last years, the evolution in this area has been considerable. Similarly, in the last years, there has been a huge growth and consolidation of the Data Mining (DM) field. DM is being used with success in BI systems, but a truly DM integration with BI is lacking. Therefore, a lack of an effective usage of DM in BI can be found in some BI systems. An architecture that pretends to conduct to an effective usage of DM in BI is presented.

VPPs information needs for effective operation in competitive electricity markets

The large increase of renewable energy sources and Distributed Generation (DG) of electricity gives place to the Virtual Power Producer (VPP) concept. VPPs may turn electricity generation by renewable sources valuable in electricity markets. Information availability and adequate decision-support tools are crucial for achieving VPPs’ goals. This involves information concerning associated producers and market operation. This paper presents ViProd, a simulation tool that allows simulating VPPs operation, focusing mainly in the information requirements for adequate decision making.

ANN-Based LMP forecasting in a distribution network with large penetration of DG

In recent years, power systems have experienced many changes in their paradigm. The introduction of new players in the management of distributed generation leads to the decentralization of control and decision-making, so that each player is able to play in the market environment. In the new context, it will be very relevant that aggregator players allow midsize, small and micro players to act in a competitive environment. In order to achieve their objectives, virtual power players and single players are required to optimize their energy resource management process. To achieve this, it is essential to have financial resources capable of providing access to appropriate decision support tools. As small players have difficulties in having access to such tools, it is necessary that these players can benefit from alternative methodologies to support their decisions. This paper presents a methodology, based on Artificial Neural Networks (ANN), and intended to support smaller players. In this case the present methodology uses a training set that is created using energy resource scheduling solutions obtained using a mixed-integer linear programming (MIP) approach as the reference optimization methodology. The trained network is used to obtain locational marginal prices in a distribution network. The main goal of the paper is to verify the accuracy of the ANN based approach. Moreover, the use of a single ANN is compared with the use of two or more ANN to forecast the locational marginal price.

Balancing market integration in MASCEM electricity market simulator

With the restructuring of the energy sector in industrialized countries there is an increased complexity in market players’ interactions along with emerging problems and new issues to be addressed. Decision support tools that facilitate the study and understanding of these markets are extremely useful to provide players with competitive advantage. In this context arises MASCEM, a multi-agent simulator for competitive electricity markets. It is essential to reinforce MASCEM with the ability to recreate electricity markets reality in the fullest possible extent, making it able to simulate as many types of markets models and players as possible. This paper presents the development of the Balancing Market in MASCEM. A key module to the study of competitive electricity markets, as it has well defined and distinct characteristics previously implemented.

Intelligent energy resource management considering vehicle-to-grid: A simulated annealing approach

This paper proposes a simulated annealing (SA) approach to address energy resources management from the point of view of a virtual power player (VPP) operating in a smart grid. Distributed generation, demand response, and gridable vehicles are intelligently managed on a multiperiod basis according to V2G user´s profiles and requirements. Apart from using the aggregated resources, the VPP can also purchase additional energy from a set of external suppliers. The paper includes a case study for a 33 bus distribution network with 66 generators, 32 loads, and 1000 gridable vehicles. The results of the SA approach are compared with a methodology based on mixed-integer nonlinear programming. A variation of this method, using ac load flow, is also used and the results are compared with the SA solution using network simulation. The proposed SA approach proved to be able to obtain good solutions in low execution times, providing VPPs with suitable decision support for the management of a large number of distributed resources.