A MULTILEVEL MODEL TO ADDRESS BATCH EFFECTS IN COPY NUMBER ESTIMATION USING SNP ARRAYS

Submicroscopic changes in chromosomal DNA copy number dosage are common and have been implicated in many heritable diseases and cancers. Recent high-throughput technologies have a resolution that permits the detection of segmental changes in DNA copy number that span thousands of basepairs across the genome. Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) may simultaneously screen for copy number-phenotype and SNP-phenotype associations as part of the analytic strategy. However, genome-wide array analyses are particularly susceptible to batch effects as the logistics of preparing DNA and processing thousands of arrays often involves multiple laboratories and technicians, or changes over calendar time to the reagents and laboratory equipment. Failure to adjust for batch effects can lead to incorrect inference and requires inefficient post-hoc quality control procedures that exclude regions that are associated with batch. Our work extends previous model-based approaches for copy number estimation by explicitly modeling batch effects and using shrinkage to improve locus-specific estimates of copy number uncertainty. Key features of this approach include the use of diallelic genotype calls from experimental data to estimate batch- and locus-specific parameters of background and signal without the requirement of training data. We illustrate these ideas using a study of bipolar disease and a study of chromosome 21 trisomy. The former has batch effects that dominate much of the observed variation in quantile-normalized intensities, while the latter illustrates the robustness of our approach to datasets where as many as 25% of the samples have altered copy number. Locus-specific estimates of copy number can be plotted on the copy-number scale to investigate mosaicism and guide the choice of appropriate downstream approaches for smoothing the copy number as a function of physical position. The software is open source and implemented in the R package CRLMM available at Bioconductor (http:www.bioconductor.org).

Ozone and Mortality: A Meta-Analysis of Time-Series Studies and Comparison to a Multi-City Study (The National Morbidity, Mortality, and Air Pollution Study)

While many time-series studies of ozone and daily mortality identified positive associations,others yielded null or inconclusive results. We performed a meta-analysis of 144 effect estimates from 39 time-series studies, and estimated pooled effects by lags, age groups,cause-specific mortality, and concentration metrics. We compared results to estimates from the National Morbidity, Mortality, and Air Pollution Study (NMMAPS), a time-series study of 95 large U.S. cities from 1987 to 2000. Both meta-analysis and NMMAPS results provided strong evidence of a short-term association between ozone and mortality, with larger effects for cardiovascular and respiratory mortality, the elderly, and current day ozone exposure as compared to other single day lags. In both analyses, results were not sensitive to adjustment for particulate matter and model specifications. In the meta-analysis we found that a 10 ppb increase in daily ozone is associated with a 0.83 (95% confidence interval: 0.53, 1.12%) increase in total mortality, whereas the corresponding NMMAPS estimate is 0.25%(0.12, 0.39%). Meta-analysis results were consistently larger than those from NMMAPS,indicating publication bias. Additional publication bias is evident regarding the choice of lags in time-series studies, and the larger heterogeneity in posterior city-specific estimates in the meta-analysis, as compared with NMAMPS.

A HIDDEN MARKOV MODEL FOR JOINT ESTIMATION OF GENOTYPE AND COPY NUMBER IN HIGH-THROUGHPUT SNP CHIPS

Amplifications and deletions of chromosomal DNA, as well as copy-neutral loss of heterozygosity have been associated with diseases processes. High-throughput single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) arrays are useful for making genome-wide estimates of copy number and genotype calls. Because neighboring SNPs in high throughput SNP arrays are likely to have dependent copy number and genotype due to the underlying haplotype structure and linkage disequilibrium, hidden Markov models (HMM) may be useful for improving genotype calls and copy number estimates that do not incorporate information from nearby SNPs. We improve previous approaches that utilize a HMM framework for inference in high throughput SNP arrays by integrating copy number, genotype calls, and the corresponding confidence scores when available. Using simulated data, we demonstrate how confidence scores control smoothing in a probabilistic framework. Software for fitting HMMs to SNP array data is available in the R package ICE.

Experimental model to evaluate in vivo and in vitro cartilage MR imaging by means of histological analyses

OBJECTIVES: Implementation of an experimental model to compare cartilage MR imaging by means of histological analyses. MATERIAL AND METHODS: MRI was obtained from 4 patients expecting total knee replacement at 1.5 and/or 3T prior surgery. The timeframe between pre-op MRI and knee replacement was within two days. Resected cartilage-bone samples were tagged with Ethi((R))-pins to reproduce the histological cutting course. Pre-operative scanning at 1.5T included following parameters for fast low angle shot (FLASH: TR/TE/FA=33ms/6ms/30 degrees , BW=110kHz, 120mmx120mm FOV, 256x256 matrix, 0.65mm slice-thickness) and double echo steady state (DESS: TR/TE/FA=23.7ms/6.9ms/40 degrees , BW=130kHz, 120x120mm FOV, 256x256 matrix, 0.65mm slice-thickness). At 3T, scan parameters were: FLASH (TR/TE/FA=12.2ms/5.1ms/10 degrees , BW=130kHz, 170x170mm FOV, 320x320, 0.5mm slice-thickness) and DESS (TR/TE/FA=15.6ms/4.5ms/25 degrees , BW=200kHz, 135mmx150mm FOV, 288x320matrix, 0.5mm slice-thickness). Imaging of the specimens was done the same day at 1.5T. MRI (Noyes) and histological (Mankin) score scales were correlated using the paired t-test. Sensitivity and specificity for the detection of different grades of cartilage degeneration were assessed. Inter-reader and intra-reader reliability was determined using Kappa analysis. RESULTS: Low correlation (sensitivity, specificity) was found for both sequences in normal to mild Mankin grades. Only moderate to severe changes were diagnosed with higher significance and specificity. The use of higher field-strengths was advantageous for both protocols with sensitivity values ranging from 13.6% to 93.3% (FLASH) and 20.5% to 96.2% (DESS). Kappa values ranged from 0.488 to 0.944. CONCLUSIONS: Correlating MR images with continuous histological slices was feasible by using three-dimensional imaging, multi-planar-reformat and marker pins. The capability of diagnosing early cartilage changes with high accuracy could not be proven for both FLASH and DESS.

Diesel spray mixing limited vaporization with non-ideal and multi-component fuel thermophysical property effects

Internal combustion engines are, and will continue to be, a primary mode of power generation for ground transportation. Challenges exist in meeting fuel consumption regulations and emission standards while upholding performance, as fuel prices rise, and resource depletion and environmental impacts are of increasing concern. Diesel engines are advantageous due to their inherent efficiency advantage over spark ignition engines; however, their NOx and soot emissions can be difficult to control and reduce due to an inherent tradeoff. Diesel combustion is spray and mixing controlled providing an intrinsic link between spray and emissions, motivating detailed, fundamental studies on spray, vaporization, mixing, and combustion characteristics under engine relevant conditions. An optical combustion vessel facility has been developed at Michigan Technological University for these studies, with detailed tests and analysis being conducted. In this combustion vessel facility a preburn procedure for thermodynamic state generation is used, and validated using chemical kinetics modeling both for the MTU vessel, and institutions comprising the Engine Combustion Network international collaborative research initiative. It is shown that minor species produced are representative of modern diesel engines running exhaust gas recirculation and do not impact the autoignition of n-heptane. Diesel spray testing of a high-pressure (2000 bar) multi-hole injector is undertaken including non-vaporizing, vaporizing, and combusting tests, with sprays characterized using Mie back scatter imaging diagnostics. Liquid phase spray parameter trends agree with literature. Fluctuations in liquid length about a quasi-steady value are quantified, along with plume to plume variations. Hypotheses are developed for their causes including fuel pressure fluctuations, nozzle cavitation, internal injector flow and geometry, chamber temperature gradients, and turbulence. These are explored using a mixing limited vaporization model with an equation of state approach for thermopyhysical properties. This model is also applied to single and multi-component surrogates. Results include the development of the combustion research facility and validated thermodynamic state generation procedure. The developed equation of state approach provides application for improving surrogate fuels, both single and multi-component, in terms of diesel spray liquid length, with knowledge of only critical fuel properties. Experimental studies are coupled with modeling incorporating improved thermodynamic non-ideal gas and fuel

Analyzing the effects of vertical acceleration and deceleration in multi-phase, debris-flow sediment-column experiments / by Christine Marie Williams.

Water-saturated debris flows are among some of the most destructive mass movements. Their complex nature presents a challenge for quantitative description and modeling. In order to improve understanding of the dynamics of these flows, it is important to seek a simplified dynamic system underlying their behavior. Models currently in use to describe the motion of debris flows employ depth-averaged equations of motion, typically assuming negligible effects from vertical acceleration. However, in many cases debris flows experience significant vertical acceleration as they move across irregular surfaces, and it has been proposed that friction associated with vertical forces and liquefaction merit inclusion in any comprehensive mechanical model. The intent of this work is to determine the effect of vertical acceleration through a series of laboratory experiments designed to simulate debris flows, testing a recent model for debris flows experimentally. In the experiments, a mass of water-saturated sediment is released suddenly from a holding container, and parameters including rate of collapse, pore-fluid pressure, and bed load are monitored. Experiments are simplified to axial geometry so that variables act solely in the vertical dimension. Steady state equations to infer motion of the moving sediment mass are not sufficient to model accurately the independent solid and fluid constituents in these experiments. The model developed in this work more accurately predicts the bed-normal stress of a saturated sediment mass in motion and illustrates the importance of acceleration and deceleration.

Multi-antenna non-line-of-sight identification techniques for target localization in mobile ad-hoc networks

Target localization has a wide range of military and civilian applications in wireless mobile networks. Examples include battle-field surveillance, emergency 911 (E911), traffc alert, habitat monitoring, resource allocation, routing, and disaster mitigation. Basic localization techniques include time-of-arrival (TOA), direction-of-arrival (DOA) and received-signal strength (RSS) estimation. Techniques that are proposed based on TOA and DOA are very sensitive to the availability of Line-of-sight (LOS) which is the direct path between the transmitter and the receiver. If LOS is not available, TOA and DOA estimation errors create a large localization error. In order to reduce NLOS localization error, NLOS identifcation, mitigation, and localization techniques have been proposed. This research investigates NLOS identifcation for multiple antennas radio systems. The techniques proposed in the literature mainly use one antenna element to enable NLOS identifcation. When a single antenna is utilized, limited features of the wireless channel can be exploited to identify NLOS situations. However, in DOA-based wireless localization systems, multiple antenna elements are available. In addition, multiple antenna technology has been adopted in many widely used wireless systems such as wireless LAN 802.11n and WiMAX 802.16e which are good candidates for localization based services. In this work, the potential of spatial channel information for high performance NLOS identifcation is investigated. Considering narrowband multiple antenna wireless systems, two xvNLOS identifcation techniques are proposed. Here, the implementation of spatial correlation of channel coeffcients across antenna elements as a metric for NLOS identifcation is proposed. In order to obtain the spatial correlation, a new multi-input multi-output (MIMO) channel model based on rough surface theory is proposed. This model can be used to compute the spatial correlation between the antenna pair separated by any distance. In addition, a new NLOS identifcation technique that exploits the statistics of phase difference across two antenna elements is proposed. This technique assumes the phases received across two antenna elements are uncorrelated. This assumption is validated based on the well-known circular and elliptic scattering models. Next, it is proved that the channel Rician K-factor is a function of the phase difference variance. Exploiting Rician K-factor, techniques to identify NLOS scenarios are proposed. Considering wideband multiple antenna wireless systems which use MIMO-orthogonal frequency division multiplexing (OFDM) signaling, space-time-frequency channel correlation is exploited to attain NLOS identifcation in time-varying, frequency-selective and spaceselective radio channels. Novel NLOS identi?cation measures based on space, time and frequency channel correlation are proposed and their performances are evaluated. These measures represent a better NLOS identifcation performance compared to those that only use space, time or frequency.

Development of an optimization model for biofuel facility size and location and a simulation model for design of a biofuel supply chain

To mitigate greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and reduce U.S. dependence on imported oil, the United States (U.S.) is pursuing several options to create biofuels from renewable woody biomass (hereafter referred to as “biomass”). Because of the distributed nature of biomass feedstock, the cost and complexity of biomass recovery operations has significant challenges that hinder increased biomass utilization for energy production. To facilitate the exploration of a wide variety of conditions that promise profitable biomass utilization and tapping unused forest residues, it is proposed to develop biofuel supply chain models based on optimization and simulation approaches. The biofuel supply chain is structured around four components: biofuel facility locations and sizes, biomass harvesting/forwarding, transportation, and storage. A Geographic Information System (GIS) based approach is proposed as a first step for selecting potential facility locations for biofuel production from forest biomass based on a set of evaluation criteria, such as accessibility to biomass, railway/road transportation network, water body and workforce. The development of optimization and simulation models is also proposed. The results of the models will be used to determine (1) the number, location, and size of the biofuel facilities, and (2) the amounts of biomass to be transported between the harvesting areas and the biofuel facilities over a 20-year timeframe. The multi-criteria objective is to minimize the weighted sum of the delivered feedstock cost, energy consumption, and GHG emissions simultaneously. Finally, a series of sensitivity analyses will be conducted to identify the sensitivity of the decisions, such as the optimal site selected for the biofuel facility, to changes in influential parameters, such as biomass availability and transportation fuel price. Intellectual Merit The proposed research will facilitate the exploration of a wide variety of conditions that promise profitable biomass utilization in the renewable biofuel industry. The GIS-based facility location analysis considers a series of factors which have not been considered simultaneously in previous research. Location analysis is critical to the financial success of producing biofuel. The modeling of woody biomass supply chains using both optimization and simulation, combing with the GIS-based approach as a precursor, have not been done to date. The optimization and simulation models can help to ensure the economic and environmental viability and sustainability of the entire biofuel supply chain at both the strategic design level and the operational planning level. Broader Impacts The proposed models for biorefineries can be applied to other types of manufacturing or processing operations using biomass. This is because the biomass feedstock supply chain is similar, if not the same, for biorefineries, biomass fired or co-fired power plants, or torrefaction/pelletization operations. Additionally, the research results of this research will continue to be disseminated internationally through publications in journals, such as Biomass and Bioenergy, and Renewable Energy, and presentations at conferences, such as the 2011 Industrial Engineering Research Conference. For example, part of the research work related to biofuel facility identification has been published: Zhang, Johnson and Sutherland [2011] (see Appendix A). There will also be opportunities for the Michigan Tech campus community to learn about the research through the Sustainable Future Institute.

Multi-software modeling technique for field distribution propagation through an optical vertical interconnect assembly

Embedded siloxane polymer waveguides have shown promising results for use in optical backplanes. They exhibit high temperature stability, low optical absorption, and require common processing techniques. A challenging aspect of this technology is out-of-plane coupling of the waveguides. A multi-software approach to modeling an optical vertical interconnect (via) is proposed. This approach utilizes the beam propagation method to generate varied modal field distribution structures which are then propagated through a via model using the angular spectrum propagation technique. Simulation results show average losses between 2.5 and 4.5 dB for different initial input conditions. Certain configurations show losses of less than 3 dB and it is shown that in an input/output pair of vias, average losses per via may be lower than the targeted 3 dB.

Risk assessment for invasive exotic plants using multi-criteria risk models

Invasive exotic plants have altered natural ecosystems across much of North America. In the Midwest, the presence of invasive plants is increasing rapidly, causing changes in ecosystem patterns and processes. Early detection has become a key component in invasive plant management and in the detection of ecosystem change. Risk assessment through predictive modeling has been a useful resource for monitoring and assisting with treatment decisions for invasive plants. Predictive models were developed to assist with early detection of ten target invasive plants in the Great Lakes Network of the National Park Service and for garlic mustard throughout the Upper Peninsula of Michigan. These multi-criteria risk models utilize geographic information system (GIS) data to predict the areas at highest risk for three phases of invasion: introduction, establishment, and spread. An accuracy assessment of the models for the ten target plants in the Great Lakes Network showed an average overall accuracy of 86.3%. The model developed for garlic mustard in the Upper Peninsula resulted in an accuracy of 99.0%. Used as one of many resources, the risk maps created from the model outputs will assist with the detection of ecosystem change, the monitoring of plant invasions, and the management of invasive plants through prioritized control efforts.

Colonization history of the Swiss Rhine basin by the bullhead (Cottus gobio): inference under a Bayesian spatially explicit framework

The present distribution of freshwater fish in the Alpine region has been strongly affected by colonization events occurring after the last glacial maximum (LGM), some 20,000 years ago. We use here a spatially explicit simulation framework to model and better understand their colonization dynamics in the Swiss Rhine basin. This approach is applied to the European bullhead (Cottus gobio), which is an ideal model organism to study fish past demographic processes since it has not been managed by humans. The molecular diversity of eight sampled populations is simulated and compared to observed data at six microsatellite loci under an approximate Bayesian computation framework to estimate the parameters of the colonization process. Our demographic estimates fit well with current knowledge about the biology of this species, but they suggest that the Swiss Rhine basin was colonized very recently, after the Younger Dryas some 6600 years ago. We discuss the implication of this result, as well as the strengths and limits of the spatially explicit approach coupled to the approximate Bayesian computation framework.

Bayesian change-point analysis in linear regression model with scale mixtures of normal distributions

In this thesis, we consider Bayesian inference on the detection of variance change-point models with scale mixtures of normal (for short SMN) distributions. This class of distributions is symmetric and thick-tailed and includes as special cases: Gaussian, Student-t, contaminated normal, and slash distributions. The proposed models provide greater flexibility to analyze a lot of practical data, which often show heavy-tail and may not satisfy the normal assumption. As to the Bayesian analysis, we specify some prior distributions for the unknown parameters in the variance change-point models with the SMN distributions. Due to the complexity of the joint posterior distribution, we propose an efficient Gibbs-type with Metropolis- Hastings sampling algorithm for posterior Bayesian inference. Thereafter, following the idea of [1], we consider the problems of the single and multiple change-point detections. The performance of the proposed procedures is illustrated and analyzed by simulation studies. A real application to the closing price data of U.S. stock market has been analyzed for illustrative purposes.

Multi-parametric classification of Alzheimer's disease and mild cognitive impairment: the impact of quantitative magnetization transfer MR imaging

Multi-parametric and quantitative magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) techniques have come into the focus of interest, both as a research and diagnostic modality for the evaluation of patients suffering from mild cognitive decline and overt dementia. In this study we address the question, if disease related quantitative magnetization transfer effects (qMT) within the intra- and extracellular matrices of the hippocampus may aid in the differentiation between clinically diagnosed patients with Alzheimer disease (AD), patients with mild cognitive impairment (MCI) and healthy controls. We evaluated 22 patients with AD (n=12) and MCI (n=10) and 22 healthy elderly (n=12) and younger (n=10) controls with multi-parametric MRI. Neuropsychological testing was performed in patients and elderly controls (n=34). In order to quantify the qMT effects, the absorption spectrum was sampled at relevant off-resonance frequencies. The qMT-parameters were calculated according to a two-pool spin-bath model including the T1- and T2 relaxation parameters of the free pool, determined in separate experiments. Histograms (fixed bin-size) of the normalized qMT-parameter values (z-scores) within the anterior and posterior hippocampus (hippocampal head and body) were subjected to a fuzzy-c-means classification algorithm with downstreamed PCA projection. The within-cluster sums of point-to-centroid distances were used to examine the effects of qMT- and diffusion anisotropy parameters on the discrimination of healthy volunteers, patients with Alzheimer and MCIs. The qMT-parameters T2(r) (T2 of the restricted pool) and F (fractional pool size) differentiated between the three groups (control, MCI and AD) in the anterior hippocampus. In our cohort, the MT ratio, as proposed in previous reports, did not differentiate between MCI and AD or healthy controls and MCI, but between healthy controls and AD.

Evaluation of a Bayesian MCMC Random Effects Inference Methodology for Capture-Mark-Recapture Data

Monte Carlo simulation was used to evaluate properties of a simple Bayesian MCMC analysis of the random effects model for single group Cormack-Jolly-Seber capture-recapture data. The MCMC method is applied to the model via a logit link, so parameters p, S are on a logit scale, where logit(S) is assumed to have, and is generated from, a normal distribution with mean μ and variance σ2 . Marginal prior distributions on logit(p) and μ were independent normal with mean zero and standard deviation 1.75 for logit(p) and 100 for μ ; hence minimally informative. Marginal prior distribution on σ2 was placed on τ2=1/σ2 as a gamma distribution with α=β=0.001 . The study design has 432 points spread over 5 factors: occasions (t) , new releases per occasion (u), p, μ , and σ . At each design point 100 independent trials were completed (hence 43,200 trials in total), each with sample size n=10,000 from the parameter posterior distribution. At 128 of these design points comparisons are made to previously reported results from a method of moments procedure. We looked at properties of point and interval inference on μ , and σ based on the posterior mean, median, and mode and equal-tailed 95% credibility interval. Bayesian inference did very well for the parameter μ , but under the conditions used here, MCMC inference performance for σ was mixed: poor for sparse data (i.e., only 7 occasions) or σ=0 , but good when there were sufficient data and not small σ .

Lag Camera: A Moving Multi-Camera Array for Scene-Acquisition

Many applications, such as telepresence, virtual reality, and interactive walkthroughs, require a three-dimensional(3D)model of real-world environments. Methods, such as lightfields, geometric reconstruction and computer vision use cameras to acquire visual samples of the environment and construct a model. Unfortunately, obtaining models of real-world locations is a challenging task. In particular, important environments are often actively in use, containing moving objects, such as people entering and leaving the scene. The methods previously listed have difficulty in capturing the color and structure of the environment while in the presence of moving and temporary occluders. We describe a class of cameras called lag cameras. The main concept is to generalize a camera to take samples over space and time. Such a camera, can easily and interactively detect moving objects while continuously moving through the environment. Moreover, since both the lag camera and occluder are moving, the scene behind the occluder is captured by the lag camera even from viewpoints where the occluder lies in between the lag camera and the hidden scene. We demonstrate an implementation of a lag camera, complete with analysis and captured environments.