Contrasting interannual and multidecadal NAO variability

Decadal and longer timescale variability in the winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) has considerable impact on regional climate, yet it remains unclear what fraction of this variability is potentially predictable. This study takes a new approach to this question by demonstrating clear physical differences between NAO variability on interannual-decadal (<30 year) and multidecadal (>30 year) timescales. It is shown that on the shorter timescale the NAO is dominated by variations in the latitude of the North Atlantic jet and storm track, whereas on the longer timescale it represents changes in their strength instead. NAO variability on the two timescales is associated with different dynamical behaviour in terms of eddy-mean flow interaction, Rossby wave breaking and blocking. The two timescales also exhibit different regional impacts on temperature and precipitation and different relationships to sea surface temperatures. These results are derived from linear regression analysis of the Twentieth Century and NCEP-NCAR reanalyses and of a high-resolution HiGEM General Circulation Model control simulation, with additional analysis of a long sea level pressure reconstruction. Evidence is presented for an influence of the ocean circulation on the longer timescale variability of the NAO, which is particularly clear in the model data. As well as providing new evidence of potential predictability, these findings are shown to have implications for the reconstruction and interpretation of long climate records.

Formulation and implementation of a residual-mean ocean circulation model

A parameterization of mesoscale eddies in coarse-resolution ocean general circulation models (GCM) is formulated and implemented using a residual-mean formalism. In that framework, mean buoyancy is advected by the residual velocity (the sum of the Eulerian and eddy-induced velocities) and modified by a residual flux which accounts for the diabatic effects of mesoscale eddies. The residual velocity is obtained by stepping forward a residual-mean momentum equation in which eddy stresses appear as forcing terms. Study of the spatial distribution of eddy stresses, derived by using them as control parameters to ‘‘fit’’ the residual-mean model to observations, supports the idea that eddy stresses can be likened to a vertical down-gradient flux of momentum with a coefficient which is constant in the vertical. The residual eddy flux is set to zero in the ocean interior, where mesoscale eddies are assumed to be quasi-adiabatic, but is parameterized by a horizontal down-gradient diffusivity near the surface where eddies develop a diabatic component as they stir properties horizontally across steep isopycnals. The residual-mean model is implemented and tested in the MIT general circulation model. It is shown that the resulting model (1) has a climatology that is superior to that obtained using the Gent and McWilliams parameterization scheme with a spatially uniform diffusivity and (2) allows one to significantly reduce the (spurious) horizontal viscosity used in coarse resolution GCMs.

Improving flood forecasts for better flood preparedness in the UK (and beyond)

This winter (2013/14) coastal storms and an unprecedented amount of rainfall led to significant and widespread flooding across the southern UK. Despite much criticism and blame surrounding the flood events, the Flood Forecasting Centre, a recent development in national-level flood forecasting capabilities for the government and emergency response communities, has received considerable praise. Here we consider how scientific developments and organisational change have led to improvements in the forecasting and flood preparedness seen in this winter's flooding. Although such improvements are admirable, there are many technical and communication challenges that remain for probabilistic flood forecasts to achieve their full potential.

On the 'special' status of emotional faces... Comment on Yang, Hong, and Blake (2010)

A wealth of literature suggests that emotional faces are given special status as visual objects: Cognitive models suggest that emotional stimuli, particularly threat-relevant facial expressions such as fear and anger, are prioritized in visual processing and may be identified by a subcortical “quick and dirty” pathway in the absence of awareness (Tamietto & de Gelder, 2010). Both neuroimaging studies (Williams, Morris, McGlone, Abbott, & Mattingley, 2004) and backward masking studies (Whalen, Rauch, Etcoff, McInerney, & Lee, 1998) have supported the notion of emotion processing without awareness. Recently, our own group (Adams, Gray, Garner, & Graf, 2010) showed adaptation to emotional faces that were rendered invisible using a variant of binocular rivalry: continual flash suppression (CFS, Tsuchiya & Koch, 2005). Here we (i) respond to Yang, Hong, and Blake's (2010) criticisms of our adaptation paper and (ii) provide a unified account of adaptation to facial expression, identity, and gender, under conditions of unawareness

K-Surfer: a KNIME extension for the management and analysis of Human brain MRI FreeSurfer/FSL data

Human brain imaging techniques, such as Magnetic Resonance Imaging (MRI) or Diffusion Tensor Imaging (DTI), have been established as scientific and diagnostic tools and their adoption is growing in popularity. Statistical methods, machine learning and data mining algorithms have successfully been adopted to extract predictive and descriptive models from neuroimage data. However, the knowledge discovery process typically requires also the adoption of pre-processing, post-processing and visualisation techniques in complex data workflows. Currently, a main problem for the integrated preprocessing and mining of MRI data is the lack of comprehensive platforms able to avoid the manual invocation of preprocessing and mining tools, that yields to an error-prone and inefficient process. In this work we present K-Surfer, a novel plug-in of the Konstanz Information Miner (KNIME) workbench, that automatizes the preprocessing of brain images and leverages the mining capabilities of KNIME in an integrated way. K-Surfer supports the importing, filtering, merging and pre-processing of neuroimage data from FreeSurfer, a tool for human brain MRI feature extraction and interpretation. K-Surfer automatizes the steps for importing FreeSurfer data, reducing time costs, eliminating human errors and enabling the design of complex analytics workflow for neuroimage data by leveraging the rich functionalities available in the KNIME workbench.

Researching farmer behaviour in climate change adaptation and sustainable agriculture: lessons learned from five case studies

Understanding farmer behaviour is needed for local agricultural systems to produce food sustainably while facing multiple pressures. We synthesize existing literature to identify three fundamental questions that correspond to three distinct areas of knowledge necessary to understand farmer behaviour: 1) decision-making model; 2) cross-scale and cross-level pressures; and 3) temporal dynamics. We use this framework to compare five interdisciplinary case studies of agricultural systems in distinct geographical contexts across the globe. We find that these three areas of knowledge are important to understanding farmer behaviour, and can be used to guide the interdisciplinary design and interpretation of studies in the future. Most importantly, we find that these three areas need to be addressed simultaneously in order to understand farmer behaviour. We also identify three methodological challenges hindering this understanding: the suitability of theoretical frameworks, the trade-offs among methods and the limited timeframe of typical research projects. We propose that a triangulation research strategy that makes use of mixed methods, or collaborations between researchers across mixed disciplines, can be used to successfully address all three areas simultaneously and show how this has been achieved in the case studies. The framework facilitates interdisciplinary research on farmer behaviour by opening up spaces of structured dialogue on assumptions, research questions and methods employed in investigation.

Teaching and learning Chinese: heritage language classroom discourse in Montreal

This paper explores issues of teaching and learning Chinese as a heritage language in a Chinese heritage language school, the Zhonguo Saturday School, in Montreal, Quebec. With a student population of more than 1000, this school is the largest of the eight Chinese Heritage Language schools in Montreal. Students participating in this study were from seven different classes (grade K, two, three, four, five, six, and special class), their ages ranging from 4 to 13 years. The study took place over a period of two years between 2000 and 2002. Focusing on primary level classroom discourse and drawing on the works of Vygotsky and Bakhtin, I examine how teachers and students use language to communicate, and how their communication mediates teaching, learning and heritage language acquisition. Data sources include classroom observations, interviews with students and their teachers, students’ writings, and video and audio taping of classroom activities. Implications for heritage language development and maintenance are discussed with reference to the findings of this study.

A critical evaluation of the ability of the Spinning Enhanced Visible and Infrared Imager (SEVIRI) thermal infrared red-green-blue rendering to identify dust events: theoretical analysis

Using a combination of idealized radiative transfer simulations and a case study from the first field campaign of the Saharan Mineral Dust Experiment (SAMUM) in southern Morocco, this paper provides a systematic assessment of the limitations of the widely used Spinning Enhanced Visible and Infrared Imager (SEVIRI) red-green-blue (RGB) thermal infrared dust product. Both analyses indicate that the ability of the product to identify dust, via its characteristic pink coloring, is strongly dependent on the column water vapor, the lower tropospheric lapse rate, and dust altitude. In particular, when column water vapor exceeds ∼20–25 mm, dust presence, even for visible optical depths of the order 0.8, is effectively masked. Variability in dust optical properties also has a marked impact on the imagery, primarily as a result of variability in dust composition. There is a moderate sensitivity to the satellite viewing geometry, particularly in moist conditions. The underlying surface can act to confound the signal seen through variations in spectral emissivity, which are predominantly manifested in the 8.7μm SEVIRI channel. In addition, if a temperature inversion is present, typical of early morning conditions over the Sahara and Sahel, an increased dust loading can actually reduce the pink coloring of the RGB image compared to pristine conditions. Attempts to match specific SEVIRI observations to simulations using SAMUM measurements are challenging because of high uncertainties in surface skin temperature and emissivity. Recommendations concerning the use and interpretation of the SEVIRI RGB imagery are provided on the basis of these findings.

Time-lapse geophysical investigations over known archaeological features using electrical resistivity imaging and earth resistance

Electrical methods of geophysical survey are known to produce results that are hard to predict at different times of the year, and under differing weather conditions. This is a problem which can lead to misinterpretation of archaeological features under investigation. The dynamic relationship between a ‘natural’ soil matrix and an archaeological feature is a complex one, which greatly affects the success of the feature’s detection when using active electrical methods of geophysical survey. This study has monitored the gradual variation of measured resistivity over a selection of study areas. By targeting difficult to find, and often ‘missing’ electrical anomalies of known archaeological features, this study has increased the understanding of both the detection and interpretation capabilities of such geophysical surveys. A 16 month time-lapse study over 4 archaeological features has taken place to investigate the aforementioned detection problem across different soils and environments. In addition to the commonly used Twin-Probe earth resistance survey, electrical resistivity imaging (ERI) and quadrature electro-magnetic induction (EMI) were also utilised to explore the problem. Statistical analyses have provided a novel interpretation, which has yielded new insights into how the detection of archaeological features is influenced by the relationship between the target feature and the surrounding ‘natural’ soils. The study has highlighted both the complexity and previous misconceptions around the predictability of the electrical methods. The analysis has confirmed that each site provides an individual and nuanced situation, the variation clearly relating to the composition of the soils (particularly pore size) and the local weather history. The wide range of reasons behind survey success at each specific study site has been revealed. The outcomes have shown that a simplistic model of seasonality is not universally applicable to the electrical detection of archaeological features. This has led to the development of a method for quantifying survey success, enabling a deeper understanding of the unique way in which each site is affected by the interaction of local environmental and geological conditions.

Clonal Relationship among Atypical Enteropathogenic Escherichia coli Strains Isolated from Different Animal Species and Humans

Forty-nine typical and atypical enteropathogenic Escherichia coli (EPEC) strains belonging to different serotypes and isolated from humans, pets (cats and dogs), farm animals (bovines, sheep, and rabbits), and wild animals (monkeys) were investigated for virulence markers and clonal similarity by pulsed-field gel electrophoresis (PFGE) and multilocus sequence typing (MLST). The virulence markers analyzed revealed that atypical EPEC strains isolated from animals have the potential to cause diarrhea in humans. A close clonal relationship between human and animal isolates was found by MLST and PFGE. These results indicate that these animals act as atypical EPEC reservoirs and may represent sources of infection for humans. Since humans also act as a reservoir of atypical EPEC strains, the cycle of mutual infection of atypical EPEC between animals and humans, mainly pets and their owners, cannot be ruled out since the transmission dynamics between the reservoirs are not yet clearly understood.

Aflatoxins and cyclopiazonic acid in feed and milk from dairy farms in Sao Paulo, Brazil

The occurrence of aflatoxins (AF) B(1), B(2), G(1), G(2) and cyclopiazonic acid (CPA) in feeds, and AFM(1) and CPA in milk was determined in dairy farms located in the northeastern region of Sao Paulo state, Brazil, between October 2005 and February 2006. AF and CPA determinations were performed by HPLC. AFB(1) was found in 42% of feed at levels or 1.0-26.4 mu g kg(-1) (mean: 7.1 +/- 7.2 mu g kg(-1)). The concentrations of AFM(1) in raw milk varied between 0.010 and 0.645 mu g l(-1) (mean: 0.104 +/- 0.138 mu g l(-1)). Only one sample was above the tolerance limit adopted in Brazil (0.50 mu g l(-1)) for AFM(1) in milk. Regarding CPA in feed, six (12%) samples showed concentrations of 12.5-1533 mu g kg(-1) (mean: 57.6 +/- 48.7 mu g kg(-1)). CPA was detected in only three milk samples (6%) at levels of 6.4, 8.8 and 9.1 mu g l(-1). Concentrations of aflatoxins and CPA in feed and milk were relatively low, although the high frequency of both mycotoxins indicates the necessity to continuously monitor dairy farms to prevent contamination of feed ingredients.

Epidemiology and Genetic Variability of Human Metapneumovirus During a 4-Year-Long Study in Southeastern Brazil

Epidemiological and molecular characteristics of human metapneumovirus (hMPV) were compared with human respiratory syncytial virus (hRSV) in infants and young children admitted for acute lower respiratory tract infections in a prospective study during four consecutive years in subtropical Brazil. GeneScan polymerase chain assays (GeneScan RT-PCR) were used to detect hMPV and hRSV in nasopharyngeal aspirates of 1,670 children during January 2003 to December 2006. hMPV and hRSV were detected, respectively, in 191 (11.4%) and in 702 (42%) of the children admitted with acute lower respiratory tract infections at the Sao Paulo University Hospital. Sequencing data of the hMPV F gene revealed that two groups of the virus, each divided into two subgroups, co-circulated during three consecutive years. It was also shown that a clear dominance of genotype B1 occurred during the years 2004 and 2005, followed by genotype A2 during 2006. J. Med. Virol. 81:915-921,2009. (C) 2009 Wiley-Liss, Inc.