Potential drought stress in a Swiss mountain catchment-Ensemble forecasting of high mountain soil moisture reveals a drastic decrease, despite major uncertainties

Climate change is expected to profoundly influence the hydrosphere of mountain ecosystems. The focus of current process-based research is centered on the reaction of glaciers and runoff to climate change; spatially explicit impacts on soil moisture remain widely neglected. We spatio-temporally analyzed the impact of the climate on soil moisture in a mesoscale high mountain catchment to facilitate the development of mitigation and adaptation strategies at the level of vegetation patterns. Two regional climate models were downscaled using three different approaches (statistical downscaling, delta change, and direct use) to drive a hydrological model (WaSiM-ETH) for reference and scenario period (1960–1990 and 2070–2100), resulting in an ensemble forecast of six members. For all ensembles members we found large changes in temperature, resulting in decreasing snow and ice storage and earlier runoff, but only small changes in evapotranspiration. The occurrence of downscaled dry spells was found to fluctuate greatly, causing soil moisture depletion and drought stress potential to show high variability in both space and time. In general, the choice of the downscaling approach had a stronger influence on the results than the applied regional climate model. All of the results indicate that summer soil moisture decreases, which leads to more frequent declines below a critical soil moisture level and an advanced evapotranspiration deficit. Forests up to an elevation of 1800 m a.s.l. are likely to be threatened the most, while alpine areas and most pastures remain nearly unaffected. Nevertheless, the ensemble variability was found to be extremely high and should be interpreted as a bandwidth of possible future drought stress situations.

Wetting and spreading of a surfactant film on solid particles: influence of sharp edges and surface irregularities

In addition to particle size and surface chemistry, the shape of particles plays an important role in their wetting and displacement by the surfactant film in the lung. The role of particle shape was the subject of our investigations using a model system consisting of a modified Langmuir-Wilhelmy surface balance. We measured the influence of sharp edges (lines) and other highly curved surfaces, including sharp corners or spikes, of different particles on the spreading of a dipalmitoylphosphatidyl (DPPC) film. The edges of cylindrical sapphire plates (circular curved edges, 1.65 mm radius) were wetted at a surface tension of 10.7 mJ/m2 (standard error (SE) = 0.45, n = 20) compared with that of 13.8 mJ/m2 (SE = 0.20, n = 20) for cubic sapphire plates (straight linear edges, edge length 3 mm) (p < 0.05). The top surfaces of the sapphire plates (cubic and cylindrical) were wetted at 8.4 mJ/m2 (SE = 0.54, n = 20) and 9.1 mJ/m2 (SE = 0.50, n = 20), respectively, but the difference was not significant (p > 0.05). The surfaces of the plates showed significantly higher resistance to spreading compared to that of the edges, as substantially lower surface tensions were required to initiate wetting (p < 0.05). Similar results were found for talc particles, were the edges of macro- and microcrystalline particles were wetted at 7.2 mJ/m2 (SE = 0.52, n = 20) and 8.2 mJ/m2 (SE = 0.30, n = 20) (p > 0.05), respectively, whereas the surfaces were wetted at 3.8 mJ/m2 (SE = 0.89, n = 20) and 5.8 mJ/m2 (SE = 0.52, n = 20) (p < 0.05), respectively. Further experiments with pollen of malvaceae and maize (spiky and fine knobbly surfaces) were wetted at 10.0 mJ/m2 (SE = 0.52, n = 10) and 22.75 mJ/m2 (SE = 0.81, n = 10), respectively (p < 0.05). These results show that resistance to spreading of a DPPC film on various surfaces is dependent on the extent these surfaces are curved. This is seen with cubic sapphire plates which have at their corners a radius of curvature of about 0.75 microm, spiky malvaceae pollen with an even smaller radius on top of their spikes, or talc with various highly curved surfaces. These highly curved surfaces resisted wetting by the DPPC film to a higher degree than more moderately curved surfaces such as those of cylindrical sapphire plates, maize pollens, or polystyrene spheres, which have a surface free energy similar to that of talc but a smooth surface. The macroscopic plane surfaces of the particles demonstrated the greatest resistance to spreading. This was explained by the extremely fine grooves in the nanometer range, as revealed by electron microscopy. In summary, to understand the effects of airborne particles retained on the surfaces of the respiratory tract, and ultimately their pathological potential, not only the particle size and surface chemistry but also the particle shape should be taken in consideration.