Extremal properties of certain risk models

Cette thèse s'intéresse à étudier les propriétés extrémales de certains modèles de risque d'intérêt dans diverses applications de l'assurance, de la finance et des statistiques. Cette thèse se développe selon deux axes principaux, à savoir: Dans la première partie, nous nous concentrons sur deux modèles de risques univariés, c'est-à- dire, un modèle de risque de déflation et un modèle de risque de réassurance. Nous étudions le développement des queues de distribution sous certaines conditions des risques commun¬s. Les principaux résultats sont ainsi illustrés par des exemples typiques et des simulations numériques. Enfin, les résultats sont appliqués aux domaines des assurances, par exemple, les approximations de Value-at-Risk, d'espérance conditionnelle unilatérale etc. La deuxième partie de cette thèse est consacrée à trois modèles à deux variables: Le premier modèle concerne la censure à deux variables des événements extrême. Pour ce modèle, nous proposons tout d'abord une classe d'estimateurs pour les coefficients de dépendance et la probabilité des queues de distributions. Ces estimateurs sont flexibles en raison d'un paramètre de réglage. Leurs distributions asymptotiques sont obtenues sous certaines condi¬tions lentes bivariées de second ordre. Ensuite, nous donnons quelques exemples et présentons une petite étude de simulations de Monte Carlo, suivie par une application sur un ensemble de données réelles d'assurance. L'objectif de notre deuxième modèle de risque à deux variables est l'étude de coefficients de dépendance des queues de distributions obliques et asymétriques à deux variables. Ces distri¬butions obliques et asymétriques sont largement utiles dans les applications statistiques. Elles sont générées principalement par le mélange moyenne-variance de lois normales et le mélange de lois normales asymétriques d'échelles, qui distinguent la structure de dépendance de queue comme indiqué par nos principaux résultats. Le troisième modèle de risque à deux variables concerne le rapprochement des maxima de séries triangulaires elliptiques obliques. Les résultats théoriques sont fondés sur certaines hypothèses concernant le périmètre aléatoire sous-jacent des queues de distributions. -- This thesis aims to investigate the extremal properties of certain risk models of interest in vari¬ous applications from insurance, finance and statistics. This thesis develops along two principal lines, namely: In the first part, we focus on two univariate risk models, i.e., deflated risk and reinsurance risk models. Therein we investigate their tail expansions under certain tail conditions of the common risks. Our main results are illustrated by some typical examples and numerical simu¬lations as well. Finally, the findings are formulated into some applications in insurance fields, for instance, the approximations of Value-at-Risk, conditional tail expectations etc. The second part of this thesis is devoted to the following three bivariate models: The first model is concerned with bivariate censoring of extreme events. For this model, we first propose a class of estimators for both tail dependence coefficient and tail probability. These estimators are flexible due to a tuning parameter and their asymptotic distributions are obtained under some second order bivariate slowly varying conditions of the model. Then, we give some examples and present a small Monte Carlo simulation study followed by an application on a real-data set from insurance. The objective of our second bivariate risk model is the investigation of tail dependence coefficient of bivariate skew slash distributions. Such skew slash distributions are extensively useful in statistical applications and they are generated mainly by normal mean-variance mixture and scaled skew-normal mixture, which distinguish the tail dependence structure as shown by our principle results. The third bivariate risk model is concerned with the approximation of the component-wise maxima of skew elliptical triangular arrays. The theoretical results are based on certain tail assumptions on the underlying random radius.

Beclin 1 mitigates motor and neuropathological deficits in genetic mouse models of Machado-Joseph disease.

Machado-Joseph disease or spinocerebellar ataxia type 3, the most common dominantly-inherited spinocerebellar ataxia, results from translation of the polyglutamine-expanded and aggregation prone ataxin 3 protein. Clinical manifestations include cerebellar ataxia and pyramidal signs and there is no therapy to delay disease progression. Beclin 1, an autophagy-related protein and essential gene for cell survival, is decreased in several neurodegenerative disorders. This study aimed at evaluating if lentiviral-mediated beclin 1 overexpression would rescue motor and neuropathological impairments when administered to pre- and post-symptomatic lentiviral-based and transgenic mouse models of Machado-Joseph disease. Beclin 1-mediated significant improvements in motor coordination, balance and gait with beclin 1-treated mice equilibrating longer periods in the Rotarod and presenting longer and narrower footprints. Furthermore, in agreement with the improvements observed in motor function beclin 1 overexpression prevented neuronal dysfunction and neurodegeneration, decreasing formation of polyglutamine-expanded aggregates, preserving Purkinje cell arborization and immunoreactivity for neuronal markers. These data show that overexpression of beclin 1 in the mouse cerebellum is able to rescue and hinder the progression of motor deficits when administered to pre- and post-symptomatic stages of the disease.

Validation of Logistic Regression Models for Landslide Susceptibility Maps

A wide range of numerical models and tools have been developed over the last decades to support the decision making process in environmental applications, ranging from physical models to a variety of statistically-based methods. In this study, a landslide susceptibility map of a part of Three Gorges Reservoir region of China was produced, employing binary logistic regression analyses. The available information includes the digital elevation model of the region, geological map and different GIS layers including land cover data obtained from satellite imagery. The landslides were observed and documented during the field studies. The validation analysis is exploited to investigate the quality of mapping.

La integració de persones amb discapacitats en el lleure. Una resposta educativa i social : les colònies integradores

Aquest vol ser un treball que, emmarcat dins l'esfera del lleure, centri la seva atenció en la interrelació dels vèrtexs d'un triangle que formen els següents components: un grup d'infants i d'adolescents, un grup de monitors i unes activitats de lleure. Els objectius van dirigits als nens i als monitors, perquè aquesta empresa la construeixen entre tots els que hi prenen part. La intervenció psicopedagògica vol aconseguir que la interacció d'aquests elements, en aquest context, possibiliti que tots els nens assoleixin uns objectius educatius i socials determinats. No es tracta d'un plantejament descriptiu dels tipus d'aprenentatge que tenen lloc a la colònia, alguns tan evidents com l'aprenentatge per imitació de models o l'aprenentatge vicari per a l'aprenentatge social d'actituds i de comportaments, sinó d'assessorar els monitors sobre com han d'intervenir en les relacions que s'estableixen en el si de la colònia per tal d'arribar a aconseguir els canvis en els comportaments i en les actituds.

Free Technology Academy : a Joint Venture of Free Software and OER

The decision to publish educational materials openly and under free licenses brings up the challenge of doing it in a sustainable way. Some lessons can be learned from the business models for production, maintenance and distribution of Free and Open Source Software. The Free Technology Academy (FTA) has taken on these challenges and has implemented some of these models. We briefly review the FTA educational programme, methodologies and organisation, and see to which extent these models are proving successful in the case of the FTA.

Innovative Applications : Open Educational Resources and Mobile Resources Repository for the Instruction of Educational Researchers in Mexico

The movement of Open Educational Resources (OER) is one of the most important trends that are helping education through the Internet worldwide. "Tecnológico de Monterrey" (http://tecvirtual.itesm.mx/) in Mexico, with other Mexican higher education institutions, is creating an Internet/web based repository of OERs and Mobile Resources for the instruction and development of educational researchers at undergraduate, Master's and Doctoral level. There is a lack of open educational resources and material available at the Internet that can help and assist the development and education of educational researchers in Spanish speaking countries. This OER repository is part of a project that is experimenting new technology for the delivery of OERs from one repository (http://catedra.ruv.itesm.mx/) through an indexed OER catalog (http://www.temoa.info/) to mobile devices (Ipod, Iphone, MP3, MP4). This paper presentation will describe and comment about this project: outcomes, best practices, difficulties and technological constraints.

How to foster sharing of educational resources?

The future of OER is highly dependent on the future of education in general. A future that will be determined by major changes in society that demand more people with a higher education and life long learning. Each vision for the long term future needs to take the qualitative and quantitative demands into account. Backcasting from a vision we arrive at useful steps to take, some of which we managed to start up in the form of pilots as part of the European research project Share.TEC.

Open Educational Resources : Experiences of use in a Latin-American context

This paper presents practical experiences using Open educational Resources (OER) for basic and elementary education (K12), educational research and research training on two inter-institutional projects with the collaboration of thirteen higher education institutions and with the support of the Corporación de Universidades para el Desarrollo del Internet (CUDI) and by the Consejo Nacional de Ciencia y Tecnología (CONACYT) of Mexico and hosted by the Tecnológico de Monterrey. The first initiative is titled "Knowledge Hub for K-12 Education" with the main goal of enrich a catalog of Open Educational Resources for basic and elementary education (K-12) for Mexico and Spanish speaking countries in Latin-America. The main goal of the second initiative is to build a collection of Open Educational Resources for Mobile Learning to address the issue of educational research and research training.

Examining the sustainability issues in UKOER projects : Developing a sustainable OER ecosystem in HE

The development of open educational resources (OERs) is becoming a strategic priority for governments and education institutions around the world, in response to funding cuts and rising costs in educational provision. In the United Kingdom, a government-sponsored Pilot Programme on Open Educational Recourses (JISC/HEA, 2009) was launched in 2009 with an initial budget of £5.7m. This paper reviews the key sustainability issues identified by the projects including the different approaches and models that have been adopted in order to sustain the continuing development and release of OER once funding has ended. The analysis also considers the challenges relating to the development and implementation of policies and processes for sustainable OER practice within institutions and among academics. The paper concludes by drawing on the experiences from the wider United Kingdom and international OER communities to develop a sustainable OER ecosystem model that can facilitate discussions on future development of OER initiatives.

Towards a Social Learning Space for Open Educational Resources

We identify a number of meanings of "Open", as part of the motivating rationale for a social media space tuned for learning, called SocialLearn. We discuss why online social learning seems to be emerging so strongly at this point, explore features of social learning, and identify some of the dimensions that we believe characterize the social learning design space, before describing the emerging design concept and implementation.

Open online courses in Colombia : report of an educational and technological experiment

Based on a discussion of the background, features and limitations of open online courses, this paper describes a technological solution to support their offering, built on online tools that don't require self-managed hosting. This is a proof of concept that intends to highlight the possibilities and obstacles related to this kind of educational practice in a Latin American context.

Determinants of the educational use of digital learning materials: The mediating role of self-efficacy, perceived norm and attitude

Initiatives to stimulate the development and propagation of open educational resources (OER) need a sufficiently large community that can be mobilized to participate in this endeavour. Failure to achieve this could lead to underuse of OER. In the context of the Wikiwijs initiative a large scale survey was undertaken amongst primary and secondary school teachers to explore possible determinants of the educational use of digital learning materials (DLMs). Basing on the Integrative Model of Behaviour Prediction it was conjectured that self-efficacy, attitude and perceived norm would take a central role in explaining the intention to use DLMs. Several other predictors were added to the model as well whose effects were hypothesized to be mediated by the three central variables.All conjectured relationships were found using path analysis on survey data from 1484 teachers. Intention to DLMs was most strongly determined by self-efficacy, followed by attitude. ICT proficiency was in its turn the strongest predictor of self-efficacy. Perceived norm played only a limited role in the intention to use DLMs. Concluding, it seems paramount for the success of projects such as Wikiwijs to train teachers in the use of digital learning materials and ICT (e.g. the digital blackboard) and to impact on their attitude.