Advancing impact prediction and hypothesis testing in invasion ecology using a comparative functional response approach

Invasion ecology urgently requires predictive methodologies that can forecast the ecological impacts of existing, emerging and potential invasive species. We argue that many ecologically damaging invaders are characterised by their more efficient use of resources. Consequently, comparison of the classical ‘functional response’ (relationship between resource use and availability) between invasive and trophically analogous native species may allow prediction of invader ecological impact. We review the utility of species trait comparisons and the history and context of the use of functional responses in invasion ecology, then present our framework for the use of comparative functional responses. We show that functional response analyses, by describing the resource use of species over a range of resource availabilities, avoids many pitfalls of ‘snapshot’ assessments of resource use. Our framework demonstrates how comparisons of invader and native functional responses, within and between Type II and III functional responses, allow testing of the likely population-level outcomes of invasions for affected species. Furthermore, we describe how recent studies support the predictive capacity of this method; for example, the invasive ‘bloody red shrimp’ Hemimysis anomala shows higher Type II functional responses than native mysids and this corroborates, and could have predicted, actual invader impacts in the field. The comparative functional response method can also be used to examine differences in the impact of two or more invaders, two or more populations of the same invader, and the abiotic (e.g. temperature) and biotic (e.g. parasitism) context-dependencies of invader impacts. Our framework may also address the previous lack of rigour in testing major hypotheses in invasion ecology, such as the ‘enemy release’ and ‘biotic resistance’ hypotheses, as our approach explicitly considers demographic consequences for impacted resources, such as native and invasive prey species. We also identify potential challenges in the application of comparative functional responses in invasion ecology. These include incorporation of numerical responses, multiple predator effects and trait-mediated indirect interactions, replacement versus non-replacement study designs and the inclusion of functional responses in risk assessment frameworks. In future, the generation of sufficient case studies for a meta-analysis could test the overall hypothesis that comparative functional responses can indeed predict invasive species impacts.

A feasibility study testing four hypotheses with phase II outcomes in advanced colorectal cancer (MRC FOCUS3): a model for randomised controlled trials in the era of personalised medicine?

Background: Molecular characteristics of cancer vary between individuals. In future, most trials will require assessment of biomarkers to allocate patients into enriched populations in which targeted therapies are more likely to be effective. The MRC FOCUS3 trial is a feasibility study to assess key elements in the planning of such studies.

Patients and methods: Patients with advanced colorectal cancer were registered from 24 centres between February 2010 and April 2011. With their consent, patients' tumour samples were analysed for KRAS/BRAF oncogene mutation status and topoisomerase 1 (topo-1) immunohistochemistry. Patients were then classified into one of four molecular strata; within each strata patients were randomised to one of two hypothesis-driven experimental therapies or a common control arm (FOLFIRI chemotherapy). A 4-stage suite of patient information sheets (PISs) was developed to avoid patient overload.

Results: A total of 332 patients were registered, 244 randomised. Among randomised patients, biomarker results were provided within 10 working days (w.d.) in 71%, 15 w.d. in 91% and 20 w.d. in 99%. DNA mutation analysis was 100% concordant between two laboratories. Over 90% of participants reported excellent understanding of all aspects of the trial. In this randomised phase II setting, omission of irinotecan in the low topo-1 group was associated with increased response rate and addition of cetuximab in the KRAS, BRAF wild-type cohort was associated with longer progression-free survival.

Conclusions: Patient samples can be collected and analysed within workable time frames and with reproducible mutation results. Complex multi-arm designs are acceptable to patients with good PIS. Randomisation within each cohort provides outcome data that can inform clinical practice.

Validation and application of a reporter gene assay for the determination of estrogenic endocrine disruptor activity in milk

Endocrine disruptors (EDs) are compounds known to interfere with the endocrine system by disturbing the action or pathways of natural hormones which may lead to infertility or cancer.Our diet is considered to be one of the main exposure routes to EDs. Since milk and dairy products are major components of our diet they should be monitored for ED contamination. Most assays developed to date utilise targeted, chromatography based methods which lack information on the biological activity and mixture effects of the monitored compounds.A biological reporter gene assay (RGA) was developed to assess the total estrogen hormonal load in milk. It has been validated according to EU decision 2002/657/EC. Analytes were extracted by liquid-liquid extraction with acetonitrile followed by clean up on a HLB column which yielded good recovery and small matrix effects. The method has been shown to be estrogen specific, repeatable and reproducible, with covariance values below 20%. In conclusion, this method enables the detection of low levels of estrogen hormonal activity in milk with a detection capability of 36pgg EEQ and has been successfully applied in testing a range of milk samples. © 2014 Elsevier Ltd.

Ecological impacts of invasive alien species along temperature gradients: testing the role of environmental matching

Invasive alien species (IAS) can cause substantive ecological impacts, and the role of temperature in mediating these impacts may become increasingly significant in a changing climate. Habitat conditions and physiological optima offer predictive information for IAS impacts in novel environments. Here, using meta-analysis and laboratory experiments, we tested the hypothesis that the impacts of IAS in the field are inversely correlated with the difference in their ambient and optimal temperatures. A meta-analysis of 29 studies of consumptive impacts of IAS in inland waters revealed that the impacts of fishes and crustaceans are higher at temperatures that more closely match their thermal growth optima. In particular, the maximum impact potential was constrained by increased differences between ambient and optimal temperatures, as indicated by the steeper slope of a quantile regression on the upper 25th percentile of impact data compared to that of a weighted linear regression on all data with measured variances. We complemented this study with an experimental analysis of the functional response - the relationship between predation rate and prey supply - of two invasive predators (freshwater mysid shrimp, Hemimysis anomala and Mysis diluviana) across relevant temperature gradients; both of these species have previously been found to exert strong community-level impacts that are corroborated by their functional responses to different prey items. The functional response experiments showed that maximum feeding rates of H. anomala and M. diluviana have distinct peaks near their respective thermal optima. Although variation in impacts may be caused by numerous abiotic or biotic habitat characteristics, both our analyses point to temperature as a key mediator of IAS impact levels in inland waters and suggest that IAS management should prioritize habitats in the invaded range that more closely match the thermal optima of targeted invaders.

Testing Tidal Turbines - Part 1: Steady Towing Tests vs Tidal Moored Tests

Tidal turbines have been tested extensively at many scales in steady state flow. Testing medium- or full-scale devices in turbulent flow has been less thoroughly examined. The differences between turbine performances in these two different states are needed for testing method verification and numerical model validation. The work in this paper documents the performance of a 1/10 scale turbine in steady state pushing tests and tidal moored tests. The overall performance of the device appears to decrease with turbulent flow, though there is increased data scatter and therefore, reduced uncertainty. At maximum power performance, as velocity increases the mechanical power and electrical power reduction from steady to unsteady flow increases. The drive train conversion efficiency also decreases. This infers that the performance for this turbine design is affected by the presence of turbulent flow.

An optimized stereo vision implementation for embedded systems: application to RGB and Infra-Red images

The aim of this paper is to demonstrate the applicability and the effectiveness of a computationally demanding stereo matching algorithm in different lowcost and low-complexity embedded devices, by focusing on the analysis of timing and image quality performances. Various optimizations have been implemented to allow its deployment on specific hardware architectures while decreasing memory and processing time requirements: (1) reduction of color channel information and resolution for input images, (2) low-level software optimizations such as parallel computation, replacement of function calls or loop unrolling, (3) reduction of redundant data structures and internal data representation. The feasibility of a stereovision system on a low cost platform is evaluated by using standard datasets and images taken from Infra-Red (IR) cameras. Analysis of the resulting disparity map accuracy with respect to a full-size dataset is performed as well as the testing of suboptimal solutions

Developments in performance-based testing of concrete

Implementation of both design for durability and performance-based standards and specifications are limited by the lack of rapid, simple, science-based test methods for characterizing the transport properties and deterioration resistance of concrete. To this end, this paper presents the background rationale and current developments in the application of electrical property measurements - conductivity in this instance - as a testing methodology to evaluate the relative performance of a range of concrete mixes. The technique can not only be used on standard specimens (e.g. cubes), but also lends itself to in-situ monitoring thereby allowing measurements to be obtained on the as-placed concrete. It is the latter which forms the focus of the current work. Conductivity measurements are presented for concretes with and without supplementary cementitious materials (SCM's) from demoulding up to 400-days. It is shown that electrical conductivity measurements display a continual decrease over the entire test period and attributed to the pore structure refinement due to hydration and pozzolanic reaction in those concretes containing blast furnace slag or fly ash. The term Formation Factor is introduced to rank concrete performance in terms of is resistance to chloride penetration.

Design of Scaled Bridge Prototype for Energy Harvesting Testing

Energy harvesting from ambient vibration is a promising field, especially for applications in larger infrastructures such as bridges. These structures are more frequently monitored for damage detection because of their extended life, increased traffic load and environmental deterioration. In this regard, the possibility of sourcing the power necessary for the sensors from devices embedded in the structure, thus cutting the cost due to the management of battery replacing over the lifespan of the structure, is particularly attracting. Among others, piezoelectric devices have proven to be especially effective and easy to apply since they can be bonded to existing host structure. For these devices the energy harvesting capacity is achieved directly from the variation in the strain conditions from the surface of the structure. However these systems need to undergo significant research for optimisation of their harvesting capacity and for assessing the feasibility of application to various ranges of bridge span and load. In this regard scaled bridge prototypes can be effectively used not only to assess numerical models and studies in an inexpensive and repeatable way but also to test the electronic devices under realistic field conditions. In this paper the theory of physical similitude is applied to the design of bridge beams with embedded energy harvesting systems and health monitoring sensors. It will show both how bridge beams can be scaled in such a way to apply and test energy harvesting systems and 2) how experimental data from existing bridges can be applied to prototypes in a laboratory environment. The study will be used for assessing the reliability of the system over a train bridge case study undergoing a set load cycles and induced localised damage.

A Novel Dual-band Printed Diversity Antenna for Mobile Terminals

A novel dual-band printed diversity antenna is proposed and studied. The antenna, which consists of two back-to- back monopoles with symmetric configuration, is printed on a printed circuit board. The effects of some important parameters of the proposed antenna are deeply studied and the design methodology is given. A prototype of the proposed antenna operating at UMTS (1920-2170 MHz) and 2.4-GHz WLAN (2400-2484 MHz) bands is provided to demonstrate the usability of the methodology in dual-band diversity antenna for mobile terminals. In the above two bands, the isolations of the prototype are larger than 13 dB and 16 dB, respectively. The measured radiation patterns of the two monopoles in general cover complementary space regions. The diversity performance is also evaluated by calculating the envelope correlation coefficient, the mean effective gains of the antenna elements and the diversity gain. It is proved that the proposed antenna can provide spatial and pattern diversity to combat multipath fading.

A Four-element Antenna System for Mobile Phones

In this letter, a multiantenna system with four printed monopoles is presented. The monopoles that occupy relatively small area are positioned at the four corners of a printed circuit board, so that the four-element antenna system can be equipped on the lid of a folder-type mobile phone, leaving enough space for the circuits and reducing the effect of human hands. Based on simulation, a prototype for the Universal Mobile Telecommunications System (UMTS) operation has been constructed and tested. The measured -10-dB impedance bandwidths of the four elements are larger than 320 MHz with higher than 11.5-dB isolation. Moreover, the proposed antenna can provide spatial and pattern diversity in a diversity/multiple-input-multiple-output (MIMO) system.

Testing of a Market Fraction Model and Power-law Behaviour in the DAX 30

This paper tests a simple market fraction asset pricing model with heterogeneous
agents. By selecting a set of structural parameters of the model through a systematic procedure, we show that the autocorrelations (of returns, absolute returns and squared returns) of the market fraction model share the same pattern as those of the DAX 30. By conducting econometric analysis via Monte Carlo simulations, we characterize these power-law behaviours and find that estimates of the power-law decay indices, the (FI)GARCH parameters, and the tail index of the selected market fraction model closely match those of the DAX 30. The results strongly support the explanatory power of the heterogeneous agent models.

The influence of high air entry filter on the testing of unsaturated soils using the axis translation technique

Suction is an important stress variable that is required for reliable predictions of the likely performance of unsaturated soils. The axis translation technique is the best established method of measuring or controlling suction; however, the success of this application is heavily dependent on the rating of the high air entry filter (HAF) and how it is incorporated into the testing system. This paper reports some basic experiments in which samples of unsaturated kaolin were brought to saturation in stages using 5 bar and 15 bar HAFs. The results have shown that the water equilibrium in unsaturated soils is greatly affected by the rating of filters. The findings also suggest that the flow through unsaturated soils is not necessarily governed by the one-dimensional consolidation theory that was developed for saturated soils, and this may be attributed to the bimodal pore size distribution of unsaturated soils.

An optimised milk testing protocol to ensure accurate enumeration of viable Mycobacterium avium subsp. paratuberculosis by the PMS-phage assay

There is interest in determining levels of Mycobacterium avium subsp. paratuberculosis (MAP) contamination in milk. The optimal sample preparation for raw cows' milk to ensure accurate enumeration of viable MAP by the peptide-mediated magnetic separation (PMS)-phage assay was determined. Results indicated that milk samples should be refrigerated at 4 C after collection and MAP testing should commence within 24 h, or samples can be frozen at 70 C for up to one month without loss of MAP viability. Use of Bronopol is not advised as MAP viability is affected. The vast majority (>95%) of MAP in raw milk sedimented to the pellet upon centrifugation at 2500 g for 15 min, so this milk fraction should be tested. De-clumping of MAP cells was most effectively achieved by ultrasonication of the resuspended milk pellet on ice in a sonicator bath at 37 kHz for 4 min in ‘Pulse’ mode.

Empirical testing of genuine savings as an indicator of weak sustainability: a three-country analysis of long run trends

Genuine Savings has emerged as a widely used indicator of sustainable development. In this paper, we use long -term data stretching back to 1870 to undertake empirical tests of the relationship between Genuine Savings (GS) and future well-being for three countries: Britain, the USA and Germany. Our tests are based on an underlying theoretical relationship between GS and changes in the present value of future consumption. Based on both single country and panel results, we find evidence supporting the existence of javascript:void(0);a cointegrating (long run equilibrium) relationship between GS and future well-being, and fail to reject the basic theoretical result on the relationship between these two macroeconomic variables. This provides some support for the GS measure of weak sustainability.