A fast cross-entropy method for estimating buffer overflows in queuing networks

In this paper, we propose a fast adaptive importance sampling method for the efficient simulation of buffer overflow probabilities in queueing networks. The method comprises three stages. First, we estimate the minimum cross-entropy tilting parameter for a small buffer level; next, we use this as a starting value for the estimation of the optimal tilting parameter for the actual (large) buffer level. Finally, the tilting parameter just found is used to estimate the overflow probability of interest. We study various properties of the method in more detail for the M/M/1 queue and conjecture that similar properties also hold for quite general queueing networks. Numerical results support this conjecture and demonstrate the high efficiency of the proposed algorithm.

Enzyme deactivation in fixed bed reactors with michaelis-menten kinetics

Rate expression for enzyme poisoning which are consistent with a Michaelis-Menten main reaction are used to analyze the performance of a fixed bed reactor containing immobilized enzyme. When enzyme deactivation results from the irreversible bonding of a product molecule to an existing substrate-enzyme complex, it is shown that minimum enzyme activity can occur in the interior of the bed, well away from the ends. This suggests that bed sectioning techniques may enable direct evaluation of fundamental poisoning mechanisms.

An initial assessment of policies for saving a rare Australian glider: Experimental results, economics and ecology

Reviews the ecological status of the mahogany glider and describes its distribution, habitat and abundance, life history and threats to it. Three serial surveys of Brisbane residents provide data on the knowledge of respondents about the mahogany glider. The results provide information about the attitudes of respondents to the mahogany glider, to its conservation and relevant public policies and about variations in these factors as the knowledge of participants of the mahogany glider alters. Similarly data is provided and analysed about the willingness to pay of respondents to conserve the mahogany glider. Population viability analysis is applied to estimate the required habitat area for a minimum viable population of the mahogany glider to ensure at least a 95% probability of its survival for 100 years. Places are identified in Queensland where the requisite minimum area of critical habitat can be conserved. Using the survey results as a basis, the likely willingness of groups of Australians to pay for the conservation of the mahogany glider is estimated and consequently their willingness to pay for the minimum required area of its habitat. Methods for estimating the cost of protecting this habitat are outlined. Australia-wide benefits seem to exceed the costs. Establishing a national park containing the minimum viable population of the mahogany glider is an appealing management option. This would also be beneficial in conserving other endangered wildlife species. Therefore, additional economic benefits to those estimated on account of the mahogany glider itself can be obtained.

Characterization of calcium-activated chloride channels in patches excised from the dendritic knob of mammalian olfactory receptor neurons

We investigated the properties of calcium-activated chloride channels in inside-out membrane patches from the dendritic knobs of acutely dissociated rat olfactory receptor neurons. Patches typically contained large calcium-activated currents, with total conductances in the range 30-75 nS. The dose response curve for calcium exhibited an EC50 of about 26 mu M. In symmetrical NaCl solutions, the current-voltage relationship reversed at 0 mV and was linear between -80 and +70 mV. When the intracellular NaCl concentration was progressively reduced from 150 to 25 mM, the reversal potential changed in a manner consistent with a chloride-selective conductance. Indeed, modeling these data with the Goldman-Hodgkin-Katz equation revealed a P-Na/P-Cl of 0.034. The halide permeability sequence was P-Cl > P-F > P-I > P-Br indicating that permeation through the channel was dominated by ion binding sites with a high field strength. The channels were also permeable to the large organic anions, SCN-, acetate(-), and gluconate(-), with the permeability sequence P-Cl > P-SCN > gluconaie. Significant permeation to gluconate ions suggested that the channel pore had a minimum diameter of at least 5.8 Angstrom.

A mathematical model of HIV transmission in NSW prisons

A mathematical model was developed to estimate HIV incidence in NSW prisons. Data included: duration of imprisonment; number of inmates using each needle; lower and higher number of shared injections per IDU per week; proportion of IDUs using bleach; efficacy of bleach; HIV prevalence and probability of infection. HIV prevalence in IDUs in prison was estimated to have risen from 0.8 to 5.7% (12.2%) over 180 weeks when using lower (and higher) values for frequency of shared injections. The estimated minimum (and maximum) number of IDU inmates infected with HIV in NSW prisons was 38 (and 152) in 1993 according to the model. These figures require confirmation by seroincidence studies. (C) 1998 Published by Elsevier Science Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Analysis of small signal stability margins using genetic optimization

Power system small signal stability analysis aims to explore different small signal stability conditions and controls, namely: (1) exploring the power system security domains and boundaries in the space of power system parameters of interest, including load flow feasibility, saddle node and Hopf bifurcation ones; (2) finding the maximum and minimum damping conditions; and (3) determining control actions to provide and increase small signal stability. These problems are presented in this paper as different modifications of a general optimization to a minimum/maximum, depending on the initial guesses of variables and numerical methods used. In the considered problems, all the extreme points are of interest. Additionally, there are difficulties with finding the derivatives of the objective functions with respect to parameters. Numerical computations of derivatives in traditional optimization procedures are time consuming. In this paper, we propose a new black-box genetic optimization technique for comprehensive small signal stability analysis, which can effectively cope with highly nonlinear objective functions with multiple minima and maxima, and derivatives that can not be expressed analytically. The optimization result can then be used to provide such important information such as system optimal control decision making, assessment of the maximum network's transmission capacity, etc. (C) 1998 Elsevier Science S.A. All rights reserved.

The Modified Card Sorting Test: Test-retest stability and relationships with demographic variables in a healthy older adult sample

Objectives. To investigate the test-retest stability of a standardized version of Nelson's (1976) Modified Card Sorting Test (MCST) and its relationships with demographic variables in a sample of healthy older adults. Design. A standard card order and administration were devised for the MCST and administered to participants at an initial assessment, and again at a second session conducted a minimum of six months later in order to examine its test-retest stability. Participants were also administered the WAIS-R at initial assessment in order to provide a measure of psychometric intelligence. Methods. Thirty-six (24 female, 12 male) healthy older adults aged 52 to 77 years with mean education 12.42 years (SD = 3.53) completed the MCST on two occasions approximately 7.5 months (SD = 1.61) apart. Stability coefficients and test-retest differences were calculated for the range of scores. The effect of gender on MCST performance was examined. Correlations between MCST scores and age, education and WAIS-R IQs were also determined. Results. Stability coefficients ranged from .26 for the percent perseverative errors measure to .49 for the failure to maintain set measure. Several measures were significantly correlated with age, education and WAIS-R IQs, although no effect of gender on MCST performance was found. Conclusions. None of the stability coefficients reached the level required for clinical decision making. The results indicate that participants' age, education, and intelligence need to be considered when interpreting MCST performance. Normative studies of MCST performance as well as further studies with patients with executive dysfunction are needed.

On uniquely determining cell-wall material properties with the compression experiment

A finite element model (FEM) of the cell-compression experiment has been developed in dimensionless form to extract the fundamental cell-wall-material properties (i.e. the constitutive equation and its parameters) from experiment force-displacement data. The FEM simulates the compression of a thin-walled, liquid-filled sphere between two flat surfaces. The cell-wall was taken to be permeable and the FEM therefore accounts for volume loss during compression. Previous models assume an impermeable wall and hence a conserved cell volume during compression. A parametric study was conducted for structural parameters representative of yeast. It was shown that the common approach of assuming reasonable values for unmeasured parameters (e.g. cell-wall thickness, initial radial stretch) can give rise to nonunique solutions for both the form and constants in the cell-wall constitutive relationship. Similarly, measurement errors can also lead to an incorrectly defined cell-wall constitutive relationship. Unique determination of the fundamental wall properties by cell compression requires accurate and precise measurement of a minimum set of parameters (initial cell radius, initial cell-wall thickness, and the volume loss during compression). In the absence of such measurements the derived constitutive relationship may be in considerable error, and should be evaluated against its ability to predict the outcome of other mechanical experiments. (C) 1998 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Effects of data characteristics on the results of reserve selection algorithms

We tested the effects of four data characteristics on the results of reserve selection algorithms. The data characteristics were nestedness of features (land types in this case), rarity of features, size variation of sites (potential reserves) and size of data sets (numbers of sites and features). We manipulated data sets to produce three levels, with replication, of each of these data characteristics while holding the other three characteristics constant. We then used an optimizing algorithm and three heuristic algorithms to select sites to solve several reservation problems. We measured efficiency as the number or total area of selected sites, indicating the relative cost of a reserve system. Higher nestedness increased the efficiency of all algorithms (reduced the total cost of new reserves). Higher rarity reduced the efficiency of all algorithms (increased the total cost of new reserves). More variation in site size increased the efficiency of all algorithms expressed in terms of total area of selected sites. We measured the suboptimality of heuristic algorithms as the percentage increase of their results over optimal (minimum possible) results. Suboptimality is a measure of the reliability of heuristics as indicative costing analyses. Higher rarity reduced the suboptimality of heuristics (increased their reliability) and there is some evidence that more size variation did the same for the total area of selected sites. We discuss the implications of these results for the use of reserve selection algorithms as indicative and real-world planning tools.

Photoinhibition and photoprotection in symbiotic dinoflagellates from reef-building corals

Pulse-amplitude-modulation fluorometry and oxygen respirometry were used to investigate diel photosynthetic responses by symbiotic dinoflagellates to light levels in summer and winter on a high latitude coral reef. The symbiotic dinoflagellates from 2 species of reef-building coral (Porites cylindrica and Stylophora pistillata) showed photoinhibitory decreases in the ratio of variable (F-v) to maximal (F-m) fluorescence (F-v/F-m) as early as 09:00 h on both summer and winter days on the reefs associated with One Tree Island (23 degrees 30' S, 152 degrees 06' E; Great Barrier Reef, Australia). This was due to decreases in maximum, F-m, and to a smaller extent minimum, F-0, chlorophyll fluorescence. Complete recovery took 4 to 6 h and began to occur as soon as light levels fell each day. Chlorophyll fluorescence quenching analysis of corals measured during the early afternoon revealed classic regulation of photosystem II (PSII) efficiency through non-photochemical quenching (NPQ). These results appear to be similar to data collected for other algae and higher plants, suggesting involvement of the xanthophyll cycle of symbiotic dinoflagellates in regulating the quantum efficiency of PSII. The ability of symbiotic dinoflagellates to develop significant NPQ, however, depended strongly on when the symbiotic dinoflagellates were studied. Whereas symbiotic dinoflagellates from corals in the early afternoon showed a significant capacity to regulate the efficiency of PSII using NPQ, those sampled before sunrise had a slower and much reduced capacity, suggesting that elements of the xanthophyll cycle are suppressed prior to sunrise. A second major finding of this study is that the quantum efficiency of PSII in symbiotic dinoflagellates is strongly diurnal, and is as much as 50% lower just prior to sunrise than later in the day. When combined with oxygen flux data, these results indicate that a greater portion of the electron transport occurring later in the day is likely to be due to the increases in the rate of carbon fixation by Rubisco or to higher flutes through the Mehler-Ascorbate-Peroxidase (MAP) cycle.

Adaptation of sorghum: characterisation of genotypic flowering responses to temperature and photoperiod

Sorghum [Sorghum bicolor (L.) Moench] is an important cereal crop grown in a wide range of tropical and temperate environments. This study was conducted to characterise the photothermal flowering responses of sorghum genotypes and to examine relationships between photothermal characteristics and environment of origin in order to better understand the phenological basis of adaptation to environment in sorghum. Twenty-four germplasm accessions and one hybrid from 24 major sorghum-growing areas were grown in a wide range of environments varying in temperature and photoperiod in India, Kenya and Mall between 1992 and 1995. Times from sowing to flowering (f) were recorded, and the responsiveness of 1/f to temperature and photoperiod was quantified using photothermal models. Times from sowing to flowering were accurately predicted in a wide range of environments using a multiplicative rate photothermal model. Significant variation in the minimum time to flower (F-m) and photoperiod sensitivity (critical photoperiod, P-c, and photoperiod-sensitivity slope, P-s) was observed among the genotypes; in contrast there was little variation in base temperature (Tb) Adaptation of sorghum to the diverse environments in which it is grown was largely determined by photoperiod sensitivity and minimum time to flower; photoperiod sensitivity determines bread adaptation to latitude (daylength), while variation in the minimum time to flower determines specific adaptation within smaller ranges of latitude, e.g. within the humid and sub-humid tropics.

A test of competing explanations of compensation demanded

We find that prospect theory behavior is significantly more prevalent than utility theory behavior in experiments involving multiple, real items. In the experiments, subjects were endowed with three items and asked the minimum payments they required to be willing to return one, two, or three of them. Our key observation is that prospect theory implies concavity of compensation demanded, whereas utility theory implies convexity. We examine whether the compensation demanded is convex or concave in the number of items returned. (JEL C91).

Physical properties and fluidization behaviour of fresh green bean particulates during fluidized bed drying

Changes in the physical properties (such as particle density, bulk density of the bed, shrinkage and bed porosity) of fresh green bean particulates were investigated during drying. Three length:diameter ratios (1:1, 2:1 and 3:1) were considered, using drying conditions of 50 +/- 2 degrees C and 13 +/- 2% relative humidity in a heat pump dehumidifier system. The fluidization behaviour was also evaluated at 10 levels of moisture content. The fluidization experiments demonstrated that the minimum fluidization velocity decreases as the drying proceeds due to the reduced moisture content and changes in the physical properties of the bean particulates. Empirical relationships of the following nature were developed for the change in shrinkage [VR = 1 - Be-kMR], particle density [rho(p) = A + BMR + C (exp)(-D MR)], bulk density [rho(b) = a(1) + b(1)MR + c(1)MR(2)] and bed porosity [epsilon = a(2) + b(2)MR + c(2)MR(2)] with the moisture content during fluidized bed drying.

Aluminium alloys - their physical and mechanical properties: Grain formation in AlSi7Mg0.35 foundry alloy at low superheat

Hypoeutectic AI-Si alloys represent the most widely used alloy system for cast aluminium applications. This system has a unique behaviour with respect to grain formation where an increase in silicon content results in a transition to larger grain sizes after a minimum at an intermediate concentration. As a result of the already large solute content, grain refinement by solute additions is inefficient and nucleant particles from the common aluminium grain refiners are not as effective as in wrought alloys. However, casting conditions, such as a low pouring temperature, that promote the formation of wall crystals tie. crystals nucleated in the thermally undercooled layer at or next to mould walls) are very effective in yielding a small grain size. This paper presents results of an investigation of the effect of low superheat and mould preheat temperature on grain size. It was found that pouring temperature controls the effectiveness of the wall mechanism while mould preheat has little effect until high preheat temperatures at which a large increase in grain size occurs. The observed changes in grain size are explained in terms of the balance between nucleation rate and survival rate of crystal nuclei resulting from changes in superheat and mould temperature.

Impact of increasing the re-supply interval on the seasonality of subsidised prescription use in Australia

Objective: To evaluate the impact of increasing the minimum resupply period for prescriptions on the Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme (PBS) in November 1994. The intervention was designed to reduce the stockpiling of medicines used for chronic medical conditions under the PBS safety net. Methods: Interrupted times series regression analyses were performed on 114 months of PBS drug utilisation data from January 1991 to June 2000. These analyses assessed whether there had been a significant interaction between the onset of the intervention in November 1994 and the extreme levels of drug utilisation in the months of December (peak utilisation) and January (lowest utilisation) respectively. Both serial and 12-month lag autocorrelations were controlled for. Results: The onset of the intervention was associated with a significant reduction in the December peak in drug utilisation; after the introduction of the policy there were 1,150,196 fewer proscriptions on average or that month (95% Cl 708,333-1,592,059). There was, however, no significant change in the low level of utilisation in January. The effect of the policy appears to be decreasing across successive postintervention years. though the odds of a prescription being dispensed in December remained significantly lower in 1999 compared to each of the pre-intervention years (11% vs. 14%) Conclusion: Analysis of the impact of increasing the re-supply period for PBS prescriptions showed that the magnitude of peak utilisation in December had been markedly reduced by the policy, though this effect appears to be decreasing over time. Continued monitoring and policy review is warranted in order to ensure that the initial effect of the intervention be maintained.