Regime dependent changes in global precipitation

Assessment of changes in precipitation (P) as a function of percentiles of surface temperature (T) and 500 hPa vertical velocity (ω) are presented, considering present-day simulations and observational estimates from the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) combined with the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts Interim reanalysis (ERA Interim). There is a tendency for models to overestimate P in the warm, subsiding regimes compared to GPCP, in some cases by more than 100%, while many models underestimate P in the moderate temperature regimes. Considering climate change projections between 1980–1999 and 2080–2099, responses in P are characterised by dP/dT ≥ 4%/K over the coldest 10–20% of land points and over warm, ascending ocean points while P declines over the warmest, descending regimes (dP/dT ∼ − 4%/K for model ensemble means). The reduced Walker circulation limits this contrasting dP/dT response in the tropical wet and dry regimes only marginally. Around 70% of the global surface area exhibits a consistent sign for dP/dT in at least 6 out of a 7-member model ensemble when considering P composites in terms of dynamic regime.

Haldane's Mackindergarten: a radical experiment in British military education

This article critically evaluates a course that was conceived and run at the LSE by Sir Halford Mackinder for officers of the Britsh Army between 1907 and 1932.There is an examination of the nature of the syllabus,the aims and objectives of this course.An explanation is also given as to why the army cut it seven years before the outbreak of the Second World War.

From apotheosis to damnation: Mussolini and the Fascist regime, 1936-45

This is an essay for a catalogue of the exhibition 'Against Mussolini: art and the fall of a dictator' held at the Estorick Collection, London, September - December 2010. The essay examines shifting attitudes towards Mussolini in the years immediately preceding his fall, and suggests that the development of 'anti-fascism' was less pronounced than often suggested.

Military doctrine, command philosophy and the generation of fighting power: genesis and theory

Military doctrine is one of the conceptual components of war. Its raison d’être is that of a force multiplier. It enables a smaller force to take on and defeat a larger force in battle. This article’s departure point is the aphorism of Sir Julian Corbett, who described doctrine as ‘the soul of warfare’. The second dimension to creating a force multiplier effect is forging doctrine with an appropriate command philosophy. The challenge for commanders is how, in unique circumstances, to formulate, disseminate and apply an appropriate doctrine and combine it with a relevant command philosophy. This can only be achieved by policy-makers and senior commanders successfully answering the Clausewitzian question: what kind of conflict are they involved in? Once an answer has been provided, a synthesis of these two factors can be developed and applied. Doctrine has implications for all three levels of war. Tactically, doctrine does two things: first, it helps to create a tempo of operations; second, it develops a transitory quality that will produce operational effect, and ultimately facilitate the pursuit of strategic objectives. Its function is to provide both training and instruction. At the operational level instruction and understanding are critical functions. Third, at the strategic level it provides understanding and direction. Using John Gooch’s six components of doctrine, it will be argued that there is a lacunae in the theory of doctrine as these components can manifest themselves in very different ways at the three levels of war. They can in turn affect the transitory quality of tactical operations. Doctrine is pivotal to success in war. Without doctrine and the appropriate command philosophy military operations cannot be successfully concluded against an active and determined foe.

Property company performance and real interest rates: a regime-switching approach

Linear models of property market performance may be misspecified if there exist distinct states where the market drivers behave in different ways. This paper examines the applicability of non-linear regime-based models. A Self Exciting Threshold Autoregressive (SETAR) model is applied to property company share data, using the real rate of interest to define regimes. Distinct regimes appear exhibiting markedly different market behaviour. The model both casts doubt on the specification of conventional linear models and offers the possibility of developing effective trading rules for real estate equities.

Internationalized regimes: a second dimension of regime hybridity

Traditional approaches have conceptualized political regimes almost exclusively with reference to domestic-level political factors. However, many current and historical political regimes have entailed a major role for international actors, and in some cases the external influence has been so great that regimes have become internationalized. This article explores the concept of internationalized regimes and argues that they should be seen as a distinct form of hybrid regime type that demonstrates a distinct dimension of hybridity. Until now, regime hybridity has been conceived of along a single dimension of domestic politics: the level of competitiveness. Yet, some regimes are characterised by a different type of hybridity, in which domestic and international authority are found together within a single political system. The article explores the dynamics of internationalized regimes within three settings, those of international occupation, international administration and informal empire.