Evaluation of a Bayesian MCMC Random Effects Inference Methodology for Capture-Mark-Recapture Data

Monte Carlo simulation was used to evaluate properties of a simple Bayesian MCMC analysis of the random effects model for single group Cormack-Jolly-Seber capture-recapture data. The MCMC method is applied to the model via a logit link, so parameters p, S are on a logit scale, where logit(S) is assumed to have, and is generated from, a normal distribution with mean μ and variance σ2 . Marginal prior distributions on logit(p) and μ were independent normal with mean zero and standard deviation 1.75 for logit(p) and 100 for μ ; hence minimally informative. Marginal prior distribution on σ2 was placed on τ2=1/σ2 as a gamma distribution with α=β=0.001 . The study design has 432 points spread over 5 factors: occasions (t) , new releases per occasion (u), p, μ , and σ . At each design point 100 independent trials were completed (hence 43,200 trials in total), each with sample size n=10,000 from the parameter posterior distribution. At 128 of these design points comparisons are made to previously reported results from a method of moments procedure. We looked at properties of point and interval inference on μ , and σ based on the posterior mean, median, and mode and equal-tailed 95% credibility interval. Bayesian inference did very well for the parameter μ , but under the conditions used here, MCMC inference performance for σ was mixed: poor for sparse data (i.e., only 7 occasions) or σ=0 , but good when there were sufficient data and not small σ .

Biomechanical evaluation of the stabilizing function of the atlantoaxial ligaments under shear loading: A canine cadaveric study

OBJECTIVES To evaluate the stabilizing function of atlanto-axial ligaments in dogs. STUDY DESIGN Cadaveric biomechanical study. ANIMALS Beagle dog cadavers (n = 10). METHODS The craniocervical region was collected from 10 Beagle cadavers, and the occipito-atlanto-axial region was prepared and freed from the surrounding muscles. Care was taken to preserve integrity of the atlantoaxial ligaments and atlantoaxial joint capsule. The atlanto-occipital joints were blocked with 2 diverging transarticular 1.8 mm positive threaded K-wires. Specimen extremities were embedded in polymethylmethacrylate (PMMA) and mounted on a simulator testing shear load at the atlantoaxial joint. Range of motion (ROM) and neutral zone (NZ) were determined with all ligaments intact, after cutting the apical ligament, both alar ligaments, the transverse ligaments and finally after cutting the dorsal atlantoaxial ligament. RESULTS ROM increased similarly and stepwise during testing. The most significant increase was observed after transection of the alar ligaments. CONCLUSION The alar ligaments seem to be the most important ligamentous structures for stabilization of the atlantoaxial joint under shear load.

Evaluation of Condition Scoring of Feeder Calves as a Tool for Management and Nutrition

Two experiments were conducted to evaluate the effects of body condition scores of beef calves on performance efficiency and carcass characteristics. In Experiment 1, 111 steer calves were stratified by breed and condition score (CS) and randomly allotted to 14 pens. The study was analyzed as a 2 x 3 factorial design, with two breeds (Angus and Simmental) and three initial CS (4.4, 5.1, and 5.6). In Experiment 2, 76 steer calves were allotted to six pens by CS. The resultant pens averaged 3.9, 4.5, 4.7, 5.0, 5.1, and 5.6 in CS. Calves in both studies were fed a corn-based finishing diet formulated to 13.5% crude protein. All calves were implanted with Synovex- SÒ initially and reimplanted with Revalor-SÒ. In Experiment 1, 29-day dry matter intake (lb/day) increased with CS (17.9, 18.1, and 19.1 for 4.4, 5.1, and 5.6, respectively; p < .04). Daily gain (29 days) tended to decrease with increasing CS (4.19, 3.71, and 3.26; p < .13). Days on feed decreased with increasing CS (185, 180, and 178d; p < .07). In Experiment 2, daily gains also increased with decreasing initial CS for the first 114 days (p < .05) and tended to increase overall (p < .20). In Experiment 1, calves with lower initial CS had less external fat at slaughter (.48, .53, and .61 in. for CS 4.4, 5.1, and 5.6, respectively; p < .05). This effect was also noted at slaughter (p < .10), as well as at 57 days (p < .06) and at 148 days (p < .06) as measured by real-time ultrasound. Measurements of intramuscular fat and marbling were not different in either study. These data suggest that CS of feeder calves may be a useful tool for adjusting energy requirements of calves based on body condition. Also, feeder cattle may be sorted into outcome or management groups earlier than currently practiced using body condition and/or real-time ultrasound.

Canine noninflammatory alopecia: a comprehensive evaluation of common and distinguishing histological characteristics

BACKGROUND Noninflammatory alopecia is a frequent problem in dogs, and the pathogenesis is still unclear. OBJECTIVE The objective of this study was a comparative histological description of skin biopsies from dogs with different alopecic disorders and control dogs matched for coat type, season and disease duration. ANIMALS Twenty-one cases of alopecia X in plush-coated dogs, 12 cases of recurrent flank alopecia, three cases of hyperestrogenism, 15 cases of hyperadrenocorticism, 12 cases of hypothyroidism and 12 cases of primary alopecic disorders of unknown cause were evaluated. The controls were biopsies from 38 dogs of different coat types. METHODS We evaluated five serial sections of each biopsy histologically and immunohistologically to compare the histological findings within the disease groups and with the control. RESULTS All the dogs with hair cycle disorders had a significant increase in the number of hairless hair follicles, which we assigned to kenogen. In addition, dogs with alopecia X had the lowest percentage of anagen follicles and the highest percentage of telogen follicles. CONCLUSIONS The marked increase in kenogen follicles is a strong indication that the induction of the new anagen phase is impaired in hair cycle disorders. The findings in dogs with alopecia X further suggest that premature catagen is also involved in the pathogenesis. Further work to investigate the stem cell compartment and possible initiating factors for the different cycle phases is required to elucidate the exact pathogenesis.

Bone mineral density (BMD) and computer tomographic measurements of the equine proximal phalanx in correlation with breaking strength

Despite the fact that bone mineral density (BMD) is an important fracture risk predictor in human medicine, studies in equine orthopedic research are still lacking. We hypothesized that BMD correlates with bone failure and fatigue fractures of this bone. Thus, the objectives of this study were to measure the structural and mechanical properties of the proximal phalanx with dual energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA), to correlate the data obtained from DXA and computer tomography (CT) measurements to those obtained by loading pressure examination and to establish representative region of interest (ROI) for in vitro BMD measurements of the equine proximal phalanx for predicting bone failure force. DXA was used to measure the whole bone BMD and additional three ROI sites in 14 equine proximal phalanges. Following evaluation of the bone density, whole bone, cortical width and area in the mid-diaphyseal plane were measured on CT images. Bones were broken using a manually controlled universal bone crusher to measure bone failure force and reevaluated for the site of fractures on follow-up CT images. Compressive load was applied at a constant displacement rate of 2 mm/min until failure, defined as the first clear drop in the load measurement. The lowest BMD was measured at the trabecular region (mean +/- SD: 1.52 +/- 0.12 g/cm2; median: 1.48 g/cm2; range: 1.38-1.83 g/cm2). There was a significant positive linear correlation between trabelcular BMD and the breaking strength (P = 0.023, r = 0.62). The trabecular region of the proximal phalanx appears to be the only significant indicator of failure of strength in vitro. This finding should be reassessed to further reveal the prognostic value of trabecular BMD in an in vivo fracture risk model.

Variability between laboratories performing coagulation tests with identical platforms: a nationwide evaluation study.

BACKGROUND While the assessment of analytical precision within medical laboratories has received much attention in scientific enquiry, the degree of as well as the sources causing variation between them remains incompletely understood. In this study, we quantified the variance components when performing coagulation tests with identical analytical platforms in different laboratories and computed intraclass correlations coefficients (ICC) for each coagulation test. METHODS Data from eight laboratories measuring fibrinogen twice in twenty healthy subjects with one out of 3 different platforms and single measurements of prothrombin time (PT), and coagulation factors II, V, VII, VIII, IX, X, XI and XIII were analysed. By platform, the variance components of (i) the subjects, (ii) the laboratory and the technician and (iii) the total variance were obtained for fibrinogen as well as (i) and (iii) for the remaining factors using ANOVA. RESULTS The variability for fibrinogen measurements within a laboratory ranged from 0.02 to 0.04, the variability between laboratories ranged from 0.006 to 0.097. The ICC for fibrinogen ranged from 0.37 to 0.66 and from 0.19 to 0.80 for PT between the platforms. For the remaining factors the ICC's ranged from 0.04 (FII) to 0.93 (FVIII). CONCLUSIONS Variance components that could be attributed to technicians or laboratory procedures were substantial, led to disappointingly low intraclass correlation coefficients for several factors and were pronounced for some of the platforms. Our findings call for sustained efforts to raise the level of standardization of structures and procedures involved in the quantification of coagulation factors.

Activity of anidulafungin in a murine model of Candida krusei infection: evaluation of mortality and disease burden by quantitative tissue cultures and measurement of serum (1,3)-beta-D-glucan levels.

Experience with anidulafungin against Candida krusei is limited. Immunosuppressed mice were injected with 1.3 x 10(7) to 1.5 x 10(7) CFU of C. krusei. Animals were treated with saline, 40 mg/kg fluconazole, 1 mg/kg amphotericin B, or 10 and 20 mg/kg anidulafungin for 5 days. Anidulafungin improved survival and significantly reduced the number of CFU/g in kidneys and serum beta-glucan levels.

EVALUATION OF INTENSITY MODULATED RADIATION THERAPY (IMRT) DELIVERY ERROR DUE TO IMRT TREATMENT PLAN COMPLEXITY AND IMPROPERLY MATCHED DOSIMETRY DATA

Intensity modulated radiation therapy (IMRT) is a technique that delivers a highly conformal dose distribution to a target volume while attempting to maximally spare the surrounding normal tissues. IMRT is a common treatment modality used for treating head and neck (H&N) cancers, and the presence of many critical structures in this region requires accurate treatment delivery. The Radiological Physics Center (RPC) acts as both a remote and on-site quality assurance agency that credentials institutions participating in clinical trials. To date, about 30% of all IMRT participants have failed the RPC’s remote audit using the IMRT H&N phantom. The purpose of this project is to evaluate possible causes of H&N IMRT delivery errors observed by the RPC, specifically IMRT treatment plan complexity and the use of improper dosimetry data from machines that were thought to be matched but in reality were not. Eight H&N IMRT plans with a range of complexity defined by total MU (1460-3466), number of segments (54-225), and modulation complexity scores (MCS) (0.181-0.609) were created in Pinnacle v.8m. These plans were delivered to the RPC’s H&N phantom on a single Varian Clinac. One of the IMRT plans (1851 MU, 88 segments, and MCS=0.469) was equivalent to the median H&N plan from 130 previous RPC H&N phantom irradiations. This average IMRT plan was also delivered on four matched Varian Clinac machines and the dose distribution calculated using a different 6MV beam model. Radiochromic film and TLD within the phantom were used to analyze the dose profiles and absolute doses, respectively. The measured and calculated were compared to evaluate the dosimetric accuracy. All deliveries met the RPC acceptance criteria of ±7% absolute dose difference and 4 mm distance-to-agreement (DTA). Additionally, gamma index analysis was performed for all deliveries using a ±7%/4mm and ±5%/3mm criteria. Increasing the treatment plan complexity by varying the MU, number of segments, or varying the MCS resulted in no clear trend toward an increase in dosimetric error determined by the absolute dose difference, DTA, or gamma index. Varying the delivery machines as well as the beam model (use of a Clinac 6EX 6MV beam model vs. Clinac 21EX 6MV model), also did not show any clear trend towards an increased dosimetric error using the same criteria indicated above.

An evaluation of the personal response system program for the elderly in Harris County, Texas

The Personal Response System Program at Huffington Center on Aging, Baylor College of Medicine, provides emergency call systems for elderly people living independently in Houston, Texas. The goal of the project was to complete a formative evaluation of the Personal Response System Program. The specific aims of the evaluation were three-fold. One aim was to evaluate participant health status and level of disability. The second aim was to develop a health care cost estimation strategy. Finally, a preliminary cost-effectiveness analysis was completed to evaluate the program's impact on health care costs and health status among the elderly target population. ^ The evaluation was a longitudinal, randomized experimental design. After the screening of 120 volunteers for eligibility, clients were asked to complete a written questionnaire and a monthly health service contact diary. Volunteers were contacted by telephone interviewers to collect health status information from 100 eligible clients (83%) on three occasions during the six months of follow-up. ^ Initially, volunteers were randomized to two experimental groups. The two groups were found to be comparable at the beginning of the study. No significant differences were detected related to health status, level of disability, or history of physician visits at baseline. However, the group with the Personal Response System (PRS) device had more adverse health events, higher IADL scores, more frequent use of walkers, lower average health status scores, and fewer community volunteers hours than the usual care comparison group. ^ The health care costs were estimated based on an algorithm adapted from the American Medical Association guidelines. Average total health care costs for the group with the PRS device ($912) were greater than the usual care group ($464). However, median health care values for the PRS group ($263) were similar to the usual care comparison group ($234). The preliminary findings indicated that the use of the PRS device was not associated with health care cost savings. ^ In the preliminary cost-effectiveness analysis, use of the personal response system was found to be associated with increased mental health status among elderly clients. The cost-effectiveness evaluation indicated that the associated cost for six months was $710 per unit increase in mental component score when the $150 PRS subscription was included. However, clients with the PRS device were found to have a greater decline in physical health status during the six-month follow-up. The beneficial effect on mental health status was found to be in contrast to negative findings associated with changes in physical health status. The implications for future research relate to the need to identify risk factors among geriatric populations to better target groups that would most likely benefit from PRS Program enrollment. ^

Simple Estimation of Incident HIV Infection Rates in Notification Cohorts Based on Window Periods of Algorithms for Evaluation of Line-Immunoassay Result Patterns

Background Tests for recent infections (TRIs) are important for HIV surveillance. We have shown that a patient's antibody pattern in a confirmatory line immunoassay (Inno-Lia) also yields information on time since infection. We have published algorithms which, with a certain sensitivity and specificity, distinguish between incident (< = 12 months) and older infection. In order to use these algorithms like other TRIs, i.e., based on their windows, we now determined their window periods. Methods We classified Inno-Lia results of 527 treatment-naïve patients with HIV-1 infection < = 12 months according to incidence by 25 algorithms. The time after which all infections were ruled older, i.e. the algorithm's window, was determined by linear regression of the proportion ruled incident in dependence of time since infection. Window-based incident infection rates (IIR) were determined utilizing the relationship ‘Prevalence = Incidence x Duration’ in four annual cohorts of HIV-1 notifications. Results were compared to performance-based IIR also derived from Inno-Lia results, but utilizing the relationship ‘incident = true incident + false incident’ and also to the IIR derived from the BED incidence assay. Results Window periods varied between 45.8 and 130.1 days and correlated well with the algorithms' diagnostic sensitivity (R2 = 0.962; P<0.0001). Among the 25 algorithms, the mean window-based IIR among the 748 notifications of 2005/06 was 0.457 compared to 0.453 obtained for performance-based IIR with a model not correcting for selection bias. Evaluation of BED results using a window of 153 days yielded an IIR of 0.669. Window-based IIR and performance-based IIR increased by 22.4% and respectively 30.6% in 2008, while 2009 and 2010 showed a return to baseline for both methods. Conclusions IIR estimations by window- and performance-based evaluations of Inno-Lia algorithm results were similar and can be used together to assess IIR changes between annual HIV notification cohorts.

Evaluation of liver parenchyma and perfusion using dynamic contrast-enhanced computed tomography and contrast-enhanced ultrasonography in captive green iguanas (Iguana iguana) under general anesthesia.

BACKGROUND Contrast-enhanced diagnostic imaging techniques are considered useful in veterinary and human medicine to evaluate liver perfusion and focal hepatic lesions. Although hepatic diseases are a common occurrence in reptile medicine, there is no reference to the use of contrast-enhanced ultrasound (CEUS) and contrast-enhanced computed tomography (CECT) to evaluate the liver in lizards. Therefore, the aim of this study was to evaluate the pattern of change in echogenicity and attenuation of the liver in green iguanas (Iguana iguana) after administration of specific contrast media. RESULTS An increase in liver echogenicity and density was evident during CEUS and CECT, respectively. In CEUS, the mean ± SD (median; range) peak enhancement was 19.9% ± 7.5 (18.3; 11.7-34.6). Time to peak enhancement was 134.0 ± 125.1 (68.4; 59.6-364.5) seconds. During CECT, first visualization of the contrast medium was at 3.6 ± 0.5 (4; 3-4) seconds in the aorta, 10.7 ± 2.2 (10.5; 7-14) seconds in the hepatic arteries, and 15 ± 4.5 (14.5; 10-24) seconds in the liver parenchyma. Time to peak was 14.1 ± 3.4 (13; 11-21) and 31 ± 9.6 (29; 23-45) seconds in the aorta and the liver parenchyma, respectively. CONCLUSION CEUS and dynamic CECT are practical means to determine liver hemodynamics in green iguanas. Distribution of contrast medium in iguana differed from mammals. Specific reference ranges of hepatic perfusion for diagnostic evaluation of the liver in iguanas are necessary since the use of mammalian references may lead the clinician to formulate incorrect diagnostic suspicions.

Evaluation of chocolate as a source of dietary copper

Chocolate has frequently been proposed to be a valuable source of dietary copper, but data on the copper content of major contemporary chocolate brands are scarce. The copper content of 22 brands of chocolate, many of which are sold worldwide, is thus presented here. A reliable hot ashing procedure to determine the copper content of chocolate by inductively coupled plasma atomic emission spectroscopy is also described. It was found that the copper contents of the chocolates analyzed here varied in the range of 1.85 ± 0.10 to 16.50 ± 1.29 μg/g. There was a linear correlation of the copper content of chocolate to its cocoa content with a correlation coefficient R2 of 0.89, showing that the copper was largely contributed to the chocolate by the cocoa. The value of chocolate as a source of dietary copper is discussed.

Development and Evaluation of a New Tablet Computer Application for the Therapy of Brain-Injured Patients with Aphasia

Introduction Language is the most important mean of communication and plays a central role in our everyday life. Brain damage (e.g. stroke) can lead to acquired disorders of lan- guage affecting the four linguistic modalities (i.e. reading, writing, speech production and comprehension) in different combinations and levels of severity. Every year, more than 5000 people (Aphasie Suisse) are affected by aphasia in Switzerland alone. Since aphasia is highly individual, the level of difficulty and the content of tasks have to be adapted continuously by the speech therapists. Computer-based assignments allow patients to train independently at home and thus increasing the frequency of ther- apy. Recent developments in tablet computers have opened new opportunities to use these devices for rehabilitation purposes. Especially older people, who have no prior experience with computers, can benefit from the new technologies. Methods The aim of this project was to develop an application that enables patients to train language related tasks autonomously and, on the other hand, allows speech therapists to assign exercises to the patients and to track their results online. Seven categories with various types of assignments were implemented. The application has two parts which are separated by a user management system into a patient interface and a therapist interface. Both interfaces were evaluated using the SUS (Subject Usability Scale). The patient interface was tested by 15 healthy controls and 5 patients. For the patients, we also collected tracking data for further analysis. The therapist interface was evaluated by 5 speech therapists. Results The SUS score are xpatients = 98 and xhealthy = 92.7 (median = 95, SD = 7, 95% CI [88.8, 96.6]) in case of the patient interface and xtherapists = 68 in case of the therapist interface. Conclusion Both, the patients and the healthy subjects, attested high SUS scores to the patient interface. These scores are considered as "best imaginable". The therapist interface got a lower SUS score compared to the patient interface, but is still considered as "good" and "usable". The user tracking system and the interviews revealed that there is room for improvements and inspired new ideas for future versions.

Antarctic temperature changes during the last millennium: evaluation of simulations and reconstructions

Temperature changes in Antarctica over the last millennium are investigated using proxy records, a set of simulations driven by natural and anthropogenic forcings and one simulation with data assimilation. Over Antarctica, a long term cooling trend in annual mean is simulated during the period 1000–1850. The main contributor to this cooling trend is the volcanic forcing, astronomical forcing playing a dominant role at seasonal timescale. Since 1850, all the models produce an Antarctic warming in response to the increase in greenhouse gas concentrations. We present a composite of Antarctic temperature, calculated by averaging seven temperature records derived from isotope measurements in ice cores. This simple approach is supported by the coherency displayed between model results at these data grid points and Antarctic mean temperature. The composite shows a weak multi-centennial cooling trend during the pre-industrial period and a warming after 1850 that is broadly consistent with model results. In both data and simulations, large regional variations are superimposed on this common signal, at decadal to centennial timescales. The model results appear spatially more consistent than ice core records. We conclude that more records are needed to resolve the complex spatial distribution of Antarctic temperature variations during the last millennium.

Confidence Bands for Isotonic Median Curves using Sign-Tests

Suppose that one observes independent random variables (X1, Y1), (X2, Y2), …, (Xn, Yn) in R2 with unknown distributions, except that Median(Yi | Xi = M(x) for some unknown isotonic function M. We describe an explicit algorithm for the computation of confidence bands for the median function M whose running time is of order O(n2). The bands rely on multiscale sign tests and are shown to have desirable asymptotic properties.