The role of incentives for sustainable implementation of marine protected areas: an example from Tanzania

Although Marine Protected Areas (MPAs) are an increasingly popular policy tool for protecting marine stocks and biodiversity, they pose high costs for small-scale fisherfolk in poor countries. With Tanzania’s Mnazi Bay Ruvuma Estuary Marine Park as an example, we develop a spatial economic decision-modelling framework as a lens to examine fishers’ reactions to incentives created by an MPA. We argue that MPAs in poor countries can only contribute to sustainability if management induces changes in incentives to fish through a combination of enforcement (‘sticks’) and livelihood projects (‘carrots’). We emphasise practical implementation issues and implications for fostering marine ecosystem sustainability.

The relationship between community-based organisations and the effective management of coastal and marine resources in the Western Indian Ocean region

This study examines the relationship between community based organisations and marine and coastal resource management in the Western Indian Ocean Region.

Marine Isotope Stage 9 environments of fluvial deposits at Hackney, north London, UK

Middle Pleistocene deposits at Hackney, north London comprise a thick unit of organic sands and silts occupying a channel near the confluence of the River Thames in south-eastern England and its left-bank tributary the River Lea. They represent a short time interval, perhaps no more than a few years, within a late Middle Pleistocene interglacial. The organic sediments are overlain by unfossiliferous sands and gravels indicating deposition on the floodplain of a braided river under cool or cold climatic conditions. The fossil plant, insect, mollusc and vertebrate remains from the interglacial deposits all indicate climatic conditions with summers warmer than the present in SE England, and winters with a similar thermal climate. The biostratigraphic evidence suggests that the time period represented by the organic unit is part of MIS 9, although the geochronological evidence for such an age is inconclusive. The palaeontological evidence strongly suggests that this temperate stage was warmer than the succeeding temperate stage MIS 7 or the Holocene, and approaching the Ipswichian (MISs 5e) in its warmth. The multidisciplinary description of the Hackney deposits is one of the first to reconstruct terrestrial conditions in Marine Isotope Stage 9 in Western Europe.

Variability of marine aerosol fine-mode fraction and estimates of anthropogenic aerosol component over cloud-free oceans from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS)

In this study, we examine seasonal and geographical variability of marine aerosol fine-mode fraction ( fm) and its impacts on deriving the anthropogenic component of aerosol optical depth (ta) and direct radiative forcing from multispectral satellite measurements. A proxy of fm, empirically derived from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) Collection 5 data, shows large seasonal and geographical variations that are consistent with the Goddard Chemistry Aerosol Radiation Transport (GOCART) and Global Modeling Initiative (GMI) model simulations. The so-derived seasonally and spatially varying fm is then implemented into a method of estimating ta and direct radiative forcing from the MODIS measurements. It is found that the use of a constant value for fm as in previous studies would have overestimated ta by about 20% over global ocean, with the overestimation up to �45% in some regions and seasons. The 7-year (2001–2007) global ocean average ta is 0.035, with yearly average ranging from 0.031 to 0.039. Future improvement in measurements is needed to better separate anthropogenic aerosol from natural ones and to narrow down the wide range of aerosol direct radiative forcing.

Role of marine biology in glacial-interglacial CO2 cycles

It has been hypothesized that changes in the marine biological pump caused a major portion of the glacial reduction of atmospheric carbon dioxide by 80 to 100 parts per million through increased iron fertilization of marine plankton, increased ocean nutrient content or utilization, or shifts in dominant plankton types. We analyze sedimentary records of marine productivity at the peak and the middle of the last glacial cycle and show that neither changes in nutrient utilization in the Southern Ocean nor shifts in plankton dominance explain the CO2 drawdown. Iron fertilization and associated mechanisms can be responsible for no more than half the observed drawdown.

Dust sources and deposition during the last glacial maximum and current climate: a comparison of model results with paleodata from ice cores and marine sediments

Mineral dust aerosols in the atmosphere have the potential to affect the global climate by influencing the radiative balance of the atmosphere and the supply of micronutrients to the ocean. Ice and marine sediment cores indicate that dust deposition from the atmosphere was at some locations 2–20 times greater during glacial periods, raising the possibility that mineral aerosols might have contributed to climate change on glacial-interglacial time scales. To address this question, we have used linked terrestrial biosphere, dust source, and atmospheric transport models to simulate the dust cycle in the atmosphere for current and last glacial maximum (LGM) climates. We obtain a 2.5-fold higher dust loading in the entire atmosphere and a twenty-fold higher loading in high latitudes, in LGM relative to present. Comparisons to a compilation of atmospheric dust deposition flux estimates for LGM and present in marine sediment and ice cores show that the simulated flux ratios are broadly in agreement with observations; differences suggest where further improvements in the simple dust model could be made. The simulated increase in high-latitude dustiness depends on the expansion of unvegetated areas, especially in the high latitudes and in central Asia, caused by a combination of increased aridity and low atmospheric [CO2]. The existence of these dust source areas at the LGM is supported by pollen data and loess distribution in the northern continents. These results point to a role for vegetation feedbacks, including climate effects and physiological effects of low [CO2], in modulating the atmospheric distribution of dust.

Clouds, aerosols, and precipitation in the marine boundary layer: an ARM Mobile Facility Deployment

The Clouds, Aerosol, and Precipitation in the Marine Boundary Layer (CAP-MBL) deployment at Graciosa Island in the Azores generated a 21-month (April 2009–December 2010) comprehensive dataset documenting clouds, aerosols, and precipitation using the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Program (ARM) Mobile Facility (AMF). The scientific aim of the deployment is to gain improved understanding of the interactions of clouds, aerosols, and precipitation in the marine boundary layer. Graciosa Island straddles the boundary between the subtropics and midlatitudes in the northeast Atlantic Ocean and consequently experiences a great diversity of meteorological and cloudiness conditions. Low clouds are the dominant cloud type, with stratocumulus and cumulus occurring regularly. Approximately half of all clouds contained precipitation detectable as radar echoes below the cloud base. Radar and satellite observations show that clouds with tops from 1 to 11 km contribute more or less equally to surface-measured precipitation at Graciosa. A wide range of aerosol conditions was sampled during the deployment consistent with the diversity of sources as indicated by back-trajectory analysis. Preliminary findings suggest important two-way interactions between aerosols and clouds at Graciosa, with aerosols affecting light precipitation and cloud radiative properties while being controlled in part by precipitation scavenging. The data from Graciosa are being compared with short-range forecasts made with a variety of models. A pilot analysis with two climate and two weather forecast models shows that they reproduce the observed time-varying vertical structure of lower-tropospheric cloud fairly well but the cloud-nucleating aerosol concentrations less well. The Graciosa site has been chosen to be a permanent fixed ARM site that became operational in October 2013.

Joint retrievals of cloud and drizzle in marine boundary layer clouds using ground-based radar, lidar and zenith radiances

Active remote sensing of marine boundary-layer clouds is challenging as drizzle drops often dominate the observed radar reflectivity. We present a new method to simultaneously retrieve cloud and drizzle vertical profiles in drizzling boundary-layer clouds using surface-based observations of radar reflectivity, lidar attenuated backscatter, and zenith radiances under conditions when precipitation does not reach the surface. Specifically, the vertical structure of droplet size and water content of both cloud and drizzle is characterised throughout the cloud. An ensemble optimal estimation approach provides full error statistics given the uncertainty in the observations. To evaluate the new method, we first perform retrievals using synthetic measurements from large-eddy simulation snapshots of cumulus under stratocumulus, where cloud water path is retrieved with an error of 31 g m−2 . The method also performs well in non-drizzling clouds where no assumption of the cloud profile is required. We then apply the method to observations of marine stratocumulus obtained during the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement MAGIC deployment in the Northeast Pacific. Here, retrieved cloud water path agrees well with independent three-channel microwave radiometer retrievals, with a root mean square difference of 10–20 g m−2.

Marine protected areas in artisanal fisheries: a spatial bio-economic model based on observations in Costa Rica and Tanzania

In many lower-income countries, the establishment of marine protected areas (MPAs) involves significant opportunity costs for artisanal fishers, reflected in changes in how they allocate their labor in response to the MPA. The resource economics literature rarely addresses such labor allocation decisions of artisanal fishers and how, in turn, these contribute to the impact of MPAs on fish stocks, yield, and income. This paper develops a spatial bio-economic model of a fishery adjacent to a village of people who allocate their labor between fishing and on-shore wage opportunities to establish a spatial Nash equilibrium at a steady state fish stock in response to various locations for no-take zone MPAs and managed access MPAs. Villagers’ fishing location decisions are based on distance costs, fishing returns, and wages. Here, the MPA location determines its impact on fish stocks, fish yield, and villager income due to distance costs, congestion, and fish dispersal. Incorporating wage labor opportunities into the framework allows examination of the MPA’s impact on rural incomes, with results determining that win-wins between yield and stocks occur in very different MPA locations than do win-wins between income and stocks. Similarly, villagers in a high-wage setting face a lower burden from MPAs than do those in low-wage settings. Motivated by issues of central importance in Tanzania and Costa Rica, we impose various policies on this fishery – location specific no-take zones, increasing on-shore wages, and restricting MPA access to a subset of villagers – to analyze the impact of an MPA on fish stocks and rural incomes in such settings.

Regionally coupled atmosphere-ocean-sea ice-marine biogeochemistry model ROM: 1. Description and validation

The general circulation models used to simulate global climate typically feature resolution too coarse to reproduce many smaller-scale processes, which are crucial to determining the regional responses to climate change. A novel approach to downscale climate change scenarios is presented which includes the interactions between the North Atlantic Ocean and the European shelves as well as their impact on the North Atlantic and European climate. The goal of this paper is to introduce the global ocean-regional atmosphere coupling concept and to show the potential benefits of this model system to simulate present-day climate. A global ocean-sea ice-marine biogeochemistry model (MPIOM/HAMOCC) with regionally high horizontal resolution is coupled to an atmospheric regional model (REMO) and global terrestrial hydrology model (HD) via the OASIS coupler. Moreover, results obtained with ROM using NCEP/NCAR reanalysis and ECHAM5/MPIOM CMIP3 historical simulations as boundary conditions are presented and discussed for the North Atlantic and North European region. The validation of all the model components, i.e., ocean, atmosphere, terrestrial hydrology, and ocean biogeochemistry is performed and discussed. The careful and detailed validation of ROM provides evidence that the proposed model system improves the simulation of many aspects of the regional climate, remarkably the ocean, even though some biases persist in other model components, thus leaving potential for future improvement. We conclude that ROM is a powerful tool to estimate possible impacts of climate change on the regional scale.

Multiyear predictability of tropical marine productivity

Phytoplankton is at the base of the marine food web. Its carbon fixation, the net primary productivity (NPP), sustains most living marine resources. In regions like the tropical Pacific (30°N–30°S), natural fluctuations of NPP have large impacts on marine ecosystems including fisheries. The capacity to predict these natural variations would provide an important asset to science-based management approaches but remains unexplored yet. In this paper, we demonstrate that natural variations of NPP in the tropical Pacific can be forecasted several years in advance beyond the physical environment, whereas those of sea surface temperature are limited to 1 y. These results open previously unidentified perspectives for the future development of science-based management techniques of marine ecosystems based on multiyear forecasts of NPP.