Szimulációk és érzékenységvizsgálatok a magyar gazdaság egy középméretű makromodelljével = Simulations and sensitivity analyses with a medium-sized macro model of the Hungarian economy

A tanulmányban a Pénzügyminisztérium gazdaságpolitikai főosztálya és az MTA Közgazdaságtudományi Intézete által kifejlesztett középméretű negyedéves makrogazdasági modell segítségével elemezzük a magyar gazdaság legfontosabb mechanizmusait. A modellezés során követett alapelvek és a modell blokkjainak bemutatása után egy forgatókönyv-elemzés keretében vizsgáljuk a makrogazdasági és költségvetési folyamatokat befolyásoló főbb faktorok hatásait. A - tágan értelmezett - "bizonytalansági tényezőket" három csoportba soroljuk: megkülönböztetjük a külső környezet (például árfolyam) változását, a gazdasági szereplők viselkedésében rejlő bizonytalanságokat (például a bérigazodás sebességének vagy a fogyasztássimítás mértékének bizonytalanságát), valamint a gazdaságpolitikai lépéseket (például állami bérek emelését). Megmutatjuk, hogy e kockázatok makrokövetkezményei nem függetlenek egymástól, például egy árfolyamváltozás hatását befolyásolja a bérigazodás sebessége. ______ This paper analyses the most important mechanisms of the Hungarian economy using a medium-sized quarterly macroeconomic model developed jointly by the Economic Policy Department of the Ministry of Finance and the Institute of Economics of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences. After introducing the fundamental principles of modelling and the building blocks of the model investigated, within a scenario analysis, the authors present the effects of the main factors behind the macroeconomic and budgetary processes. The sources of uncertainty - defined in a broad sense - are categorized in three groups: change in the external environment (e.g. the exchange rate), uncertainties in the behav-iour of economic agents (e.g. in speed of wage adjustment or extent of consumption smoothing), and economic policy decisions (e.g. the increase in public sector wages). The macroeconomic consequences of these uncertainties are shown not to be independent of each other. For instance, the effects of an exchange rate shock are influenced by the speed of wage adjustment.

Development and implementation of a tool to assess the micro/macro elements in an organization

This study examines the congruency of planning between organizational structure and process, through an evaluation and planning model known as the Micro/Macro Dynamic Planning Grid. The model compares day-to-day planning within an organization to planning imposed by organizational administration and accrediting agencies. A survey instrument was developed to assess the micro and macro sociological analysis elements utilized by an organization.^ The Micro/Macro Dynamic Planning Grid consists of four quadrants. Each quadrant contains characteristics that reflect the interaction between the micro and macro elements of planning, objectives and goals within an organization. The Over Macro/Over Micro, Quadrant 1, contains attributes that reflect a tremendous amount of action and ongoing adjustments, typical of an organization undergoing significant changes in either leadership, program and/or structure. Over Macro/Under Micro, Quadrant 2, reflects planning characteristics found in large, bureaucratic systems with little regard given to the workings of their component parts. Under Macro/Under Micro, Quadrant 3, reflects the uncooperative, uncoordinated organization, one that contains a multiplicity of viewpoints, language, objectives and goals. Under Macro/Under Micro, Quadrant 4 represents the worst case scenario for any organization. The attributes of this quadrant are very reactive, chaotic, non-productive and redundant.^ There were three phases to the study: development of the initial instrument, pilot testing the initial instrument and item revision, and administration and assessment of the refined instrument. The survey instrument was found to be valid and reliable for the purposes and audiences herein described.^ In order to expand the applicability of the instrument to other organizational settings, the survey was administered to three professional colleges within a university.^ The first three specific research questions collectively answered, in the affirmative, the basic research question: Can the Micro/Macro Dynamic Planning Grid be applied to an organization through an organizational development tool? The first specific question: Can an instrument be constructed that applies the Micro/Macro Dynamic Planning Grid? The second specific research question: Is the constructed instrument valid and reliable? The third specific research question: Does an instrument that applies the Micro/Macro Dynamic Planning Grid assess congruency of micro and macro planning, goals and objectives within an organization? The fourth specific research question: What are the differences in the responses based on roles and responsibilities within an organization? involved statistical analysis of the response data and comparisons obtained with the demographic data. (Abstract shortened by UMI.) ^

Characterization of the Anti-Quorum Sensing Activity Exhibited by Marine Macro algae of South Florida

Quorum sensing is a communication mechanism employed by many bacteria. The bacteria secrete signal molecules known as acyl homoseriene lactones (AHLs) that cue to population size/density. Bacteria can be alerted of this optimum population by the concentration of these signal molecules. When the concentration of AHLs exceed a threshold valve, they enter the bacterial cell and causes the transcription of genes encoding virulence factors necessary for their colonization and survival. The marine algae Delise a pulchra, found off the coast of Australia is thought to produce compounds that inhibit the activity of the AHLs. The algae employ these compounds, known as furanones, as an anti-fouling agent. We postulated that marine algae of South Florida might contain similar activity; we screened 30 different algal species and found 22 species had the activity. Algal extracts were made from Halimeda incrassata using hexane, chloroform, ethyl acetate and methanol as solvents. The extracts were assayed for anti-quorum sensing activity. The results showed many of the South Florida green algae to possess anti-quorum sensing activity, however extracts of H incrassata did not show quorum sensing inhibition.

(Tables 1, 3) Details of Agassiz trawl stations and numbers of specimens per macro- and megazoobenthic taxon collected during POLARSTERN cruise ANT-XXII/3 (ANDEEP III)

The assemblages inhabiting the continental shelf around Antarctica are known to be very patchy, in large part due to deep iceberg impacts. The present study shows that richness and abundance of much deeper benthos, at slope and abyssal depths, also vary greatly in the Southern and South Atlantic oceans. On the ANDEEP III expedition, we deployed 16 Agassiz trawls to sample the zoobenthos at depths from 1055 to 4930 m across the northern Weddell Sea and two South Atlantic basins. A total of 5933 specimens, belonging to 44 higher taxonomic groups, were collected. Overall the most frequent taxa were Ophiuroidea, Bivalvia, Polychaeta and Asteroidea, and the most abundant taxa were Malacostraca, Polychaeta and Bivalvia. Species richness per station varied from 6 to 148. The taxonomic composition of assemblages, based on relative taxon richness, varied considerably between sites but showed no relation to depth. The former three most abundant taxa accounted for 10-30% each of all taxa present. Standardised abundances based on trawl catches varied between 1 and 252 individuals per 1000 m2. Abundance significantly decreased with increasing depth, and assemblages showed high patchiness in their distribution. Cluster analysis based on relative abundance showed changes of community structure that were not linked to depth, area, sediment grain size or temperature. Generally abundances of zoobenthos in the abyssal Weddell Sea are lower than shelf abundances by several orders of magnitude.

Verificación de algoritmos y estructuras de datos en Dafny

La verificación formal de un programa es la demostración de que este funciona de acuerdo a una descripción del comportamiento esperado en toda posible ejecución. La especificación de lo deseado puede utilizar técnicas diversas y entrar en mayor o menor detalle, pero para ganarse el título de formal esta ha de ser matemáticamente rigurosa. El estudio y ejercicio manual de alguna de esas técnicas forma parte del currículo común a los estudios de grado de la Facultad de Informática y del itinerario de Ciencias de la Computación de la Facultad de Ciencias Matemáticas de la Universidad Complutense de Madrid, como es el caso de la verificación con pre- y postcondiciones o lógica de Hoare. En el presente trabajo se explora la automatización de estos métodos mediante el lenguaje y verificador Dafny, con el que se especifican y verifican algoritmos y estructuras de datos de diversa complejidad. Dafny es un lenguaje de programación diseñado para integrar la especificación y permitir la verificación automática de sus programas, con la ayuda del programador y de un demostrador de teoremas en la sombra. Dafny es un proyecto en desarrollo activo aunque suficientemente maduro, que genera programas ejecutables.

El filme de vanguardia mudo y los nuevos medios digitales del siglo XXI: autores principales, estructuras plásticas complejas y estrategias creativas

El origen y naturaleza de la investigación refieren al filme de vanguardia mudo como forma plástica y recurso técnico adjunto a los nuevos medios mecánicos de principios del siglo veinte – léase, fotografía, fotomontaje, cine, impresión offset - y sus correspondencias creativas y metodológicas con la vanguardia del software informático y nuevos medios digitales. En este sentido, la propuesta conceptual y formal señala este campo de correspondencias y combinatorias como plataforma de análisis crítico y proyectual, antes que un sistema homogéneo de interpretación y sistematización del ámbito de interés. El filme de vanguardia deriva de las mediaciones sociales, científicas y políticas de las vanguardias artísticas en arte, diseño y arquitectura de las primeras décadas de la era industrial. A este respecto, los filmes seleccionados se realizaron durante el período mudo; es decir, no hay diálogos ni banda sonora incorporada al material fílmico. Sin embargo, en estricto rigor, tampoco es correcto identificarlos a tábula rasa con la denominada estética muda; puesto que esta obra refiere otra interfaz, otro vector y botón de búsqueda de los pioneros de la nueva visión mecánica...

Essays in Macro Finance

I study the link between capital markets and sources of macroeconomic risk. In chapter 1 I show that expected inflation risk is priced in the cross section of stock returns even after controlling for cash flow growth and volatility risks. Motivated by this evidence I study a long run risk model with a built-in inflation non-neutrality channel that allows me to decompose the real stochastic discount factor into news about current and expected cash flow growth, news about expected inflation and news about volatility. The model can successfully price a broad menu of assets and provides a setting for analyzing cross sectional variation in expected inflation risk premium. For industries like retail and durable goods inflation risk can account for nearly a third of the overall risk premium while the energy industry and a broad commodity index act like inflation hedges. Nominal bonds are exposed to expected inflation risk and have inflation premiums that increase with bond maturity. The price of expected inflation risk was very high during the 70's and 80's, but has come down a lot since being very close to zero over the past decade. On average, the expected inflation price of risk is negative, consistent with the view that periods of high inflation represent a "bad" state of the world and are associated with low economic growth and poor stock market performance. In chapter 2 I look at the way capital markets react to predetermined macroeconomic announcements. I document significantly higher excess returns on the US stock market on macro release dates as compared to days when no macroeconomic news hit the market. Almost the entire equity premium since 1997 is being realized on days when macroeconomic news are released. At high frequency, there is a pattern of returns increasing in the hours prior to the pre-determined announcement time, peaking around the time of the announcement and dropping thereafter.

Risk factors for macro- and microvascular complications among older adults with diagnosed type 2 diabetes: findings from The Irish Longitudinal Study on Ageing

Objective. To explore risk factors for macro- and microvascular complications in a nationally representative sample of adults aged 50 years and over with type 2 diabetes in Ireland. Methods. Data from the first wave of The Irish Longitudinal Study on Ageing (TILDA) (2009–2011) was used in cross-sectional analysis. The presence of doctor diagnosis of diabetes, risk factors, and macro and microvascular complications were determined by self-report. Gender-specific differences in risk factor prevalence were assessed with the chi-squared test. Binomial regression analysis was conducted to explore independent associations between established risk factors and diabetes-related complications. Results. Among 8175 respondents, 655 were classified as having type 2 diabetes. Older age, being male, a history of smoking, a lower level of physical activity, and a diagnosis of high cholesterol were independent predictors of macrovascular complications. Diabetes diagnosis of 10 or more years, a history of smoking, and a diagnosis of hypertension were associated with an increased risk of microvascular complications. Older age, third-level education, and a high level of physical activity were protective factors (

Water chemistry, carbonate system parameters, and macro-organism biomass of vent and off-vent sites in the Columbretes Islands Marine Reserve

Ocean acidification is receiving increasing attention because of its potential to affect marine ecosystems. Rare CO2 vents offer a unique opportunity to investigate the response of benthic ecosystems to acidification. However, the benthic habitats investigated so far are mainly found at very shallow water (less than or equal to 5 m depth) and therefore are not representative of the broad range of continental shelf habitats. Here, we show that a decrease from pH 8.1 to 7.9 observed in a CO2 vent system at 40 m depth leads to a dramatic shift in highly diverse and structurally complex habitats. Forests of the kelp Laminaria rodriguezii usually found at larger depths (greater than 65 m) replace the otherwise dominant habitats (i.e. coralligenous outcrops and rhodolith beds), which are mainly characterized by calcifying organisms. Only the aragonite-calcifying algae are able to survive in acidified waters, while high-magnesium-calcite organisms are almost completely absent. Although a long-term survey of the venting area would be necessary to fully understand the effects of the variability of pH and other carbonate parameters over the structure and functioning of the investigated mesophotic habitats, our results suggest that in addition of significant changes at species level, moderate ocean acidification may entail major shifts in the distribution and dominance of key benthic ecosystems at regional scale, which could have broad ecological and socio-economic implications.

Macro-epibenthic communities, bathymetry and enviromental information at the tip of the Antarctic Peninsula

The Southern Ocean ecosystem at the Antarctic Peninsula has steep natural environmental gradients, e.g. in terms of water masses and ice cover, and experiences regional above global average climate change. An ecological macroepibenthic survey was conducted in three ecoregions in the north-western Weddell Sea, on the continental shelf of the Antarctic Peninsula in the Bransfield Strait and on the shelf of the South Shetland Islands in the Drake Passage, defined by their environmental envelop. The aim was to improve the so far poor knowledge of the structure of this component of the Southern Ocean ecosystem and its ecological driving forces. It can also provide a baseline to assess the impact of ongoing climate change to the benthic diversity, functioning and ecosystem services. Different intermediate-scaled topographic features such as canyon systems including the corresponding topographically defined habitats 'bank', 'upper slope', 'slope' and 'canyon/deep' were sampled. In addition, the physical and biological environmental factors such as sea-ice cover, chlorophyll-a concentration, small-scale bottom topography and water masses were analysed. Catches by Agassiz trawl showed high among-station variability in biomass of 96 higher systematic groups including ecological key taxa. Large-scale patterns separating the three ecoregions from each other could be correlated with the two environmental factors, sea-ice and depth. Attribution to habitats only poorly explained benthic composition, and small-scale bottom topography did not explain such patterns at all. The large-scale factors, sea-ice and depth, might have caused large-scale differences in pelagic benthic coupling, whilst small-scale variability, also affecting larger scales, seemed to be predominantly driven by unknown physical drivers or biological interactions.

From labelling to social aid for immigrants in the 21st Century

Migration is as old as humanity, but since the 1990s migration flows in Western Europe have led to societies that are not just multicultural but so-called «super-diverse». As a result, Western towns now have very complex social structures, with amongst others large amounts of small immigrant communities that are in constant change. In this paper we argue that for social workers to be able to offer adequate professional help to non-native residents in town, they will need balanced view of ‘culture’ and of the role culture plays in social aid. Culture is never static, but is continually changing. By teaching social workers about how to look at cultural backgrounds of immigrant groups and about the limitations of then role that culture plays in communication, they will be better equipped to provide adequate aid and will contribute to making various groups grow towards each other and to avoid people thinking in terms of ‘out-group-homogeneity’. Nowadays, inclusion is a priority in social work that almost every social worker supports. Social workers should have an open attitude to allow them to approach every individual as a unique person. They will see the other person as the person they are, and not as a part of a specific cultural group. Knowledge about the others makes them see the cultural heterogeneity in every group. The social sector, though, must be aware not to fall into the trap of the ‘inclusion mania’! This will cause the social deprivation of a particular group to be forgotten. An inclusive policy requires an inclusive society. Otherwise, this could result in even more deprivation of other groups, already discriminated against. Emancipation of deprived people demands a certain target-group policymaking. Categorized aid will raise efficiency of working with immigrants and of acknowledging the cultural identity of the non-natives group. It will also create the possibility to work on fighting social deprivation, in which most immigrants can be found.