Application of a Bayesian Network complex system model to a successful community electricity demand reduction program

Utilities worldwide are focused on supplying peak electricity demand reliably and cost effectively, requiring a thorough understanding of all the factors influencing residential electricity use at peak times. An electricity demand reduction project based on comprehensive residential consumer engagement was established within an Australian community in 2008, and by 2011, peak demand had decreased to below pre-intervention levels. This paper applied field data discovered through qualitative in-depth interviews of 22 residential households at the community to a Bayesian Network complex system model to examine whether the system model could explain successful peak demand reduction in the case study location. The knowledge and understanding acquired through insights into the major influential factors and the potential impact of changes to these factors on peak demand would underpin demand reduction intervention strategies for a wider target group.

Medical semantic similarity with a neural language model

Advances in neural network language models have demonstrated that these models can effectively learn representations of words meaning. In this paper, we explore a variation of neural language models that can learn on concepts taken from structured ontologies and extracted from free-text, rather than directly from terms in free-text. This model is employed for the task of measuring semantic similarity between medical concepts, a task that is central to a number of techniques in medical informatics and information retrieval. The model is built with two medical corpora (journal abstracts and patient records) and empirically validated on two ground-truth datasets of human-judged concept pairs assessed by medical professionals. Empirically, our approach correlates closely with expert human assessors ($\approx$ 0.9) and outperforms a number of state-of-the-art benchmarks for medical semantic similarity. The demonstrated superiority of this model for providing an effective semantic similarity measure is promising in that this may translate into effectiveness gains for techniques in medical information retrieval and medical informatics (e.g., query expansion and literature-based discovery).

DFL: A Data Flow Language

Many novel computer architectures like array and multiprocessors which achieve high performance through the use of concurrency exploit variations of the von Neumann model of computation. The effective utilization of the machines makes special demands on programmers and their programming languages, such as the structuring of data into vectors or the partitioning of programs into concurrent processes. In comparison, the data flow model of computation demands only that the principle of structured programming be followed. A data flow program, often represented as a data flow graph, is a program that expresses a computation by indicating the data dependencies among operators. A data flow computer is a machine designed to take advantage of concurrency in data flow graphs by executing data independent operations in parallel. In this paper, we discuss the design of a high level language (DFL: Data Flow Language) suitable for data flow computers. Some sample procedures in DFL are presented. The implementation aspects have not been discussed in detail since there are no new problems encountered. The language DFL embodies the concepts of functional programming, but in appearance closely resembles Pascal. The language is a better vehicle than the data flow graph for expressing a parallel algorithm. The compiler has been implemented on a DEC 1090 system in Pascal.

SuSeFLAV 1.2: Program for supersymmetric mass spectra with seesaw mechanism and rare lepton flavor violating decays

Accurate supersymmetric spectra are required to confront data from direct and indirect searches of supersymmetry. SuSeFLAV is a numerical tool capable of computing supersymmetric spectra precisely for various supersymmetric breaking scenarios applicable even in the presence of flavor violation. The program solves MSSM RGEs with complete 3 x 3 flavor mixing at 2-loop level and one loop finite threshold corrections to all MSSM parameters by incorporating radiative electroweak symmetry breaking conditions. The program also incorporates the Type-I seesaw mechanism with three massive right handed neutrinos at user defined mass scales and mixing. It also computes branching ratios of flavor violating processes such as l(j) -> l(i)gamma, l(j) -> 3 l(i), b -> s gamma and supersymmetric contributions to flavor conserving quantities such as (g(mu) - 2). A large choice of executables suitable for various operations of the program are provided. Program summary Program title: SuSeFLAV Catalogue identifier: AEOD_v1_0 Program summary URL: http://cpc.cs.qub.ac.uk/summaries/AEOD_v1_0.html Program obtainable from: CPC Program Library, Queen's University, Belfast, N. Ireland Licensing provisions: GNU General Public License No. of lines in distributed program, including test data, etc.: 76552 No. of bytes in distributed program, including test data, etc.: 582787 Distribution format: tar.gz Programming language: Fortran 95. Computer: Personal Computer, Work-Station. Operating system: Linux, Unix. Classification: 11.6. Nature of problem: Determination of masses and mixing of supersymmetric particles within the context of MSSM with conserved R-parity with and without the presence of Type-I seesaw. Inter-generational mixing is considered while calculating the mass spectrum. Supersymmetry breaking parameters are taken as inputs at a high scale specified by the mechanism of supersymmetry breaking. RG equations including full inter-generational mixing are then used to evolve these parameters up to the electroweak breaking scale. The low energy supersymmetric spectrum is calculated at the scale where successful radiative electroweak symmetry breaking occurs. At weak scale standard model fermion masses, gauge couplings are determined including the supersymmetric radiative corrections. Once the spectrum is computed, the program proceeds to various lepton flavor violating observables (e.g., BR(mu -> e gamma), BR(tau -> mu gamma) etc.) at the weak scale. Solution method: Two loop RGEs with full 3 x 3 flavor mixing for all supersymmetry breaking parameters are used to compute the low energy supersymmetric mass spectrum. An adaptive step size Runge-Kutta method is used to solve the RGEs numerically between the high scale and the electroweak breaking scale. Iterative procedure is employed to get the consistent radiative electroweak symmetry breaking condition. The masses of the supersymmetric particles are computed at 1-loop order. The third generation SM particles and the gauge couplings are evaluated at the 1-loop order including supersymmetric corrections. A further iteration of the full program is employed such that the SM masses and couplings are consistent with the supersymmetric particle spectrum. Additional comments: Several executables are presented for the user. Running time: 0.2 s on a Intel(R) Core(TM) i5 CPU 650 with 3.20 GHz. (c) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Use of contexts in language model interpolation and adaptation

Language models (LMs) are often constructed by building multiple individual component models that are combined using context independent interpolation weights. By tuning these weights, using either perplexity or discriminative approaches, it is possible to adapt LMs to a particular task. This paper investigates the use of context dependent weighting in both interpolation and test-time adaptation of language models. Depending on the previous word contexts, a discrete history weighting function is used to adjust the contribution from each component model. As this dramatically increases the number of parameters to estimate, robust weight estimation schemes are required. Several approaches are described in this paper. The first approach is based on MAP estimation where interpolation weights of lower order contexts are used as smoothing priors. The second approach uses training data to ensure robust estimation of LM interpolation weights. This can also serve as a smoothing prior for MAP adaptation. A normalized perplexity metric is proposed to handle the bias of the standard perplexity criterion to corpus size. A range of schemes to combine weight information obtained from training data and test data hypotheses are also proposed to improve robustness during context dependent LM adaptation. In addition, a minimum Bayes' risk (MBR) based discriminative training scheme is also proposed. An efficient weighted finite state transducer (WFST) decoding algorithm for context dependent interpolation is also presented. The proposed technique was evaluated using a state-of-the-art Mandarin Chinese broadcast speech transcription task. Character error rate (CER) reductions up to 7.3 relative were obtained as well as consistent perplexity improvements. © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Language model cross adaptation for LVCSR system combination

State-of-the-art large vocabulary continuous speech recognition (LVCSR) systems often combine outputs from multiple sub-systems that may even be developed at different sites. Cross system adaptation, in which model adaptation is performed using the outputs from another sub-system, can be used as an alternative to hypothesis level combination schemes such as ROVER. Normally cross adaptation is only performed on the acoustic models. However, there are many other levels in LVCSR systems' modelling hierarchy where complimentary features may be exploited, for example, the sub-word and the word level, to further improve cross adaptation based system combination. It is thus interesting to also cross adapt language models (LMs) to capture these additional useful features. In this paper cross adaptation is applied to three forms of language models, a multi-level LM that models both syllable and word sequences, a word level neural network LM, and the linear combination of the two. Significant error rate reductions of 4.0-7.1% relative were obtained over ROVER and acoustic model only cross adaptation when combining a range of Chinese LVCSR sub-systems used in the 2010 and 2011 DARPA GALE evaluations. © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Program Representation Size in an Intermediate Language with Intersection and Union Types

The CIL compiler for core Standard ML compiles whole programs using a novel typed intermediate language (TIL) with intersection and union types and flow labels on both terms and types. The CIL term representation duplicates portions of the program where intersection types are introduced and union types are eliminated. This duplication makes it easier to represent type information and to introduce customized data representations. However, duplication incurs compile-time space costs that are potentially much greater than are incurred in TILs employing type-level abstraction or quantification. In this paper, we present empirical data on the compile-time space costs of using CIL as an intermediate language. The data shows that these costs can be made tractable by using sufficiently fine-grained flow analyses together with standard hash-consing techniques. The data also suggests that non-duplicating formulations of intersection (and union) types would not achieve significantly better space complexity.

The development of a computer model to optimize the performance of a 50kWp photovoltaic system

A computer model has been developed to optimize the performance of a 50kWp photovoltaic system which supplies electrical energy to a dairy farm at Fota Island in Cork Harbour. Optimization of the system involves maximising the efficiency and increasing the performance and reliability of each hardware unit. The model accepts horizontal insolation, ambient temperature, wind speed, wind direction and load demand as inputs. An optimization program uses the computer model to simulate the optimum operating conditions. From this analysis, criteria are established which are used to improve the photovoltaic system operation. This thesis describes the model concepts, the model implementation and the model verification procedures used during development. It also describes the techniques which are used during system optimization. The software, which is written in FORTRAN, is structured in modular units to provide logical and efficient programming. These modular units may also be used in the modelling and optimization of other photovoltaic systems.

Systematic Usage of Embedded Modelling Languages in Automated Model Transformation Chains

Annotation of programs using embedded Domain-Specific Languages (embedded DSLs), such as the program annotation facility for the Java programming language, is a well-known practice in computer science. In this paper we argue for and propose a specialized approach for the usage of embedded Domain-Specific Modelling Languages (embedded DSMLs) in Model-Driven Engineering (MDE) processes that in particular supports automated many-step model transformation chains. It can happen that information defined at some point, using an embedded DSML, is not required in the next immediate transformation step, but in a later one. We propose a new approach of model annotation enabling flexible many-step transformation chains. The approach utilizes a combination of embedded DSMLs, trace models and a megamodel. We demonstrate our approach based on an example MDE process and an industrial case study.

Effects of computer-mediated communication and face-to-face communication on the quantity and quality of discourse produced by English as a second language students /

The effects oftwo types of small-group communication, synchronous computer-mediated and face-to-face, on the quantity and quality of verbal output were con^ared. Quantity was deiSned as the number of turns taken per minute, the number of Analysis-of-Speech units (AS-units) produced per minute, and the number ofwords produced per minute. Quality was defined as the number of words produced per AS-unit. In addition, the interaction of gender and type of communication was explored for any differences that existed in the output produced. Questionnaires were also given to participants to determine attitudes toward computer-mediated and face-to-face communication. Thirty intermediate-level students fi-om the Intensive English Language Program (lELP) at Brock University participated in the study, including 15 females and 15 males. Nonparametric tests, including the Wilcoxon matched-pairs test, Mann-Whitney U test, and Friedman test were used to test for significance at the p < .05 level. No significant differences were found in the effects of computer-mediated and face-to-face communication on the output produced during follow-up speaking sessions. However, the quantity and quality of interaction was significantly higher during face-to-face sessions than computer-mediated sessions. No significant differences were found in the output produced by males and females in these 2 conditions. While participants felt that the use of computer-mediated communication may aid in the development of certain language skills, they generally preferred face-to-face communication. These results differed fi-om previous studies that found a greater quantity and quality of output in addition to a greater equality of interaction produced during computer-mediated sessions in comparison to face-to-face sessions (Kern, 1995; Warschauer, 1996).

A Dynamical Systems Model for Language Change

Formalizing linguists' intuitions of language change as a dynamical system, we quantify the time course of language change including sudden vs. gradual changes in languages. We apply the computer model to the historical loss of Verb Second from Old French to modern French, showing that otherwise adequate grammatical theories can fail our new evolutionary criterion.

The STATFLUX code: a statistical method for calculation of flow and set of parameters, based on the Multiple-Compartment Biokinetical Model

The code STATFLUX, implementing a new and simple statistical procedure for the calculation of transfer coefficients in radionuclide transport to animals and plants, is proposed. The method is based on the general multiple-compartment model, which uses a system of linear equations involving geometrical volume considerations. Flow parameters were estimated by employing two different least-squares procedures: Derivative and Gauss-Marquardt methods, with the available experimental data of radionuclide concentrations as the input functions of time. The solution of the inverse problem, which relates a given set of flow parameter with the time evolution of concentration functions, is achieved via a Monte Carlo Simulation procedure.Program summaryTitle of program: STATFLUXCatalogue identifier: ADYS_v1_0Program summary URL: http://cpc.cs.qub.ac.uk/summaries/ADYS_v1_0Program obtainable from: CPC Program Library, Queen's University of Belfast, N. IrelandLicensing provisions: noneComputer for which the program is designed and others on which it has been tested: Micro-computer with Intel Pentium III, 3.0 GHzInstallation: Laboratory of Linear Accelerator, Department of Experimental Physics, University of São Paulo, BrazilOperating system: Windows 2000 and Windows XPProgramming language used: Fortran-77 as implemented in Microsoft Fortran 4.0. NOTE: Microsoft Fortran includes non-standard features which are used in this program. Standard Fortran compilers such as, g77, f77, ifort and NAG95, are not able to compile the code and therefore it has not been possible for the CPC Program Library to test the program.Memory, required to execute with typical data: 8 Mbytes of RAM memory and 100 MB of Hard disk memoryNo. of bits in a word: 16No. of lines in distributed program, including test data, etc.: 6912No. of bytes in distributed Program, including test data, etc.: 229 541Distribution format: tar.gzNature of the physical problem: the investigation of transport mechanisms for radioactive substances, through environmental pathways, is very important for radiological protection of populations. One such pathway, associated with the food chain, is the grass-animal-man sequence. The distribution of trace elements in humans and laboratory animals has been intensively studied over the past 60 years [R.C. Pendlenton, C.W. Mays, R.D. Lloyd, A.L. Brooks, Differential accumulation of iodine-131 from local fallout in people and milk, Health Phys. 9 (1963) 1253-1262]. In addition, investigations on the incidence of cancer in humans, and a possible causal relationship to radioactive fallout, have been undertaken [E.S. Weiss, M.L. Rallison, W.T. London, W.T. Carlyle Thompson, Thyroid nodularity in southwestern Utah school children exposed to fallout radiation, Amer. J. Public Health 61 (1971) 241-249; M.L. Rallison, B.M. Dobyns, F.R. Keating, J.E. Rall, F.H. Tyler, Thyroid diseases in children, Amer. J. Med. 56 (1974) 457-463; J.L. Lyon, M.R. Klauber, J.W. Gardner, K.S. Udall, Childhood leukemia associated with fallout from nuclear testing, N. Engl. J. Med. 300 (1979) 397-402]. From the pathways of entry of radionuclides in the human (or animal) body, ingestion is the most important because it is closely related to life-long alimentary (or dietary) habits. Those radionuclides which are able to enter the living cells by either metabolic or other processes give rise to localized doses which can be very high. The evaluation of these internally localized doses is of paramount importance for the assessment of radiobiological risks and radiological protection. The time behavior of trace concentration in organs is the principal input for prediction of internal doses after acute or chronic exposure. The General Multiple-Compartment Model (GMCM) is the powerful and more accepted method for biokinetical studies, which allows the calculation of concentration of trace elements in organs as a function of time, when the flow parameters of the model are known. However, few biokinetics data exist in the literature, and the determination of flow and transfer parameters by statistical fitting for each system is an open problem.Restriction on the complexity of the problem: This version of the code works with the constant volume approximation, which is valid for many situations where the biological half-live of a trace is lower than the volume rise time. Another restriction is related to the central flux model. The model considered in the code assumes that exist one central compartment (e.g., blood), that connect the flow with all compartments, and the flow between other compartments is not included.Typical running time: Depends on the choice for calculations. Using the Derivative Method the time is very short (a few minutes) for any number of compartments considered. When the Gauss-Marquardt iterative method is used the calculation time can be approximately 5-6 hours when similar to 15 compartments are considered. (C) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Tensor3D: A computer graphics program to simulate 3D real-time deformation and visualization of geometric bodies

Tensor3D is a geometric modeling program with the capacity to simulate and visualize in real-time the deformation, specified through a tensor matrix and applied to triangulated models representing geological bodies. 3D visualization allows the study of deformational processes that are traditionally conducted in 2D, such as simple and pure shears. Besides geometric objects that are immediately available in the program window, the program can read other models from disk, thus being able to import objects created with different open-source or proprietary programs. A strain ellipsoid and a bounding box are simultaneously shown and instantly deformed with the main object. The principal axes of strain are visualized as well to provide graphical information about the orientation of the tensor's normal components. The deformed models can also be saved, retrieved later and deformed again, in order to study different steps of progressive strain, or to make this data available to other programs. The shape of stress ellipsoids and the corresponding Mohr circles defined by any stress tensor can also be represented. The application was written using the Visualization ToolKit, a powerful scientific visualization library in the public domain. This development choice, allied to the use of the Tcl/Tk programming language, which is independent on the host computational platform, makes the program a useful tool for the study of geometric deformations directly in three dimensions in teaching as well as research activities. (C) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Turning math attractive to computer science students: an application-to-model approach

This paper describes an innovative approach to develop the understanding about the relevance of mathematics to computer science. The mathematical subjects are introduced through an application-to-model scheme that lead computer science students to a better understanding of why they have to learn math and learn it effectively. Our approach consists of a single one semester course, taught at the first semester of the program, where the students are initially exposed to some typical computer applications. When they recognize the applications' complexity, the instructor gives the mathematical models supporting such applications, even before a formal introduction to the model in a math course. We applied this approach at Unesp (Brazil) and the results include a large reduction in the rate of students that abandon the college and better students in the final years of our program.