The year-long unprecedented European heat and drought of 1540 – a worst case

The heat waves of 2003 in Western Europe and 2010 in Russia, commonly labelled as rare climatic anomalies outside of previous experience, are often taken as harbingers of more frequent extremes in the global warming-influenced future. However, a recent reconstruction of spring–summer temperatures for WE resulted in the likelihood of significantly higher temperatures in 1540. In order to check the plausibility of this result we investigated the severity of the 1540 drought by putting forward the argument of the known soil desiccation-temperature feedback. Based on more than 300 first-hand documentary weather report sources originating from an area of 2 to 3 million km2, we show that Europe was affected by an unprecedented 11-month-long Megadrought. The estimated number of precipitation days and precipitation amount for Central and Western Europe in 1540 is significantly lower than the 100-year minima of the instrumental measurement period for spring, summer and autumn. This result is supported by independent documentary evidence about extremely low river flows and Europe-wide wild-, forest- and settlement fires. We found that an event of this severity cannot be simulated by state-of-the-art climate models.

Alpine lacustrine varved record reveals summer temperature as main control of glacier fluctuations over the past 2250 years

Glacier fluctuations are a key indicator of changing climate. Their reconstruction beyond historical times unravels glacier variability and its forcing factors on long time scales, which can considerably improve our understanding of the climate–glacier relationship. Here, we present a 2250-year-long reconstruction of particle-mass accumulation rates recorded in the lacustrine sediments of Lake Trüebsee (Central Swiss Alps) that are directly related to glacier extent, thus reflecting a continuous record of fluctuations of the upstream-located Titlis Glacier. Mass accumulation rate values show strong centennial to multi-centennial fluctuations and reveal 12 well-pronounced periods of enhanced values corresponding to times of maximum extent of the neighboring Lower Grindelwald Glacier. This result supports previous studies of proglacial lake sediments that documented high mass accumulation rate values during glacier advances. The strong variability in the Lake Trüebsee mass accumulation rate record thus represents a highly sensitive paleoclimatic archive, which mirrors rapid and pronounced feedbacks of Titlis Glacier to climatic changes over the past 2250years. The comparison of our data with independent paleo-temperature reconstructions from tree rings suggests that variations in mean summer temperature were the primary driving factor of fluctuations of Titlis Glacier. Also, advances of Titlis Glacier occurred during the grand solar minima (Dalton, Maunder, Spörer, Wolf) of the last millennium. This relation of glacier extent with summer temperature reveals strong evidence that the mass balance of this Alpine glacier is primarily controlled by the intensity of glacier melting during summer.

Die beispiellose Hitze und Dürre von 1540 - ein Katastrophenszenario

Die Hitze- und Dürreperioden der Jahre 2003 und 201 O in Westeuropa und Russland wurden als sehr seltene klimatische Anomalien gewertet, deren Intensität außerhalb früherer Erfahrungen lag. Die Studie 'An underestimated record breaking event - why summer 1540 was likely warmer than 2003' zeigt hingegen, dass die Hitzewelle von 1540 wahrscheinlich noch wesentlich extremer war. Um dieses Resultat zu überprüfen, wurden in WETTER et al. (2014) die Niederschlagsverhältnisse und der bekannte Bodentrockenheit-Temperatur Rückkoppelungsme- chanismus (soll dessication-temperature feedback) untersucht. Basierend auf Ober 300 zeitgenössischen Quellen historischer Dokumentendaten aus ganz Europa konnte eine beispiellose, beinahe ununterbrochene Trockenphase von 11 Monaten für West und Mitteleuropa rekonstruiert werden. Die Schätzungen der saisonalen und jährlichen Niederschlagsmengen liegen signifikant unter den 100-jährlichen Minima der Instrumentellen Messperiode. Diese Resultate werden durch unabhängige historische Dokumentendaten unterstützt, welche von sehr niedrigen Wasserständen bedeutender Oberflächengewässer, europaweiten Feuersbrünsten und schweren sozioökonomischen Folgen berichten. Es zeigte sich weiterhin, dass die bis dato gängigen Klimamodelle noch nicht in der Lage sind, solch extreme Anomalien zu simulieren.

Modeling corrective experiences as motivational mountain pass

Aim: The landscape metaphor allows viewing corrective experiences (CE) as pathway to a state with relatively lower 'tension' (local minimum). However, such local minima are not easily accessible but obstructed by states with relatively high tension (local maxima) according to the landscape metaphor (Caspar & Berger, 2012). For example, an individual with spider phobia has to transiently tolerate high levels of tension during an exposure therapy to access the local minimum of habituation. To allow for more specific therapeutic guidelines and empirically testable hypotheses, we advance the landscape metaphor to a scientific model which bases on motivational processes. Specifically, we conceptualize CEs as available but unusual trajectories (=pathways) through a motivational space. The dimensions of the motivational state are set up by basic motives such as need for agency or attachment. Methods: Dynamic system theory is used to model motivational states and trajectories using mathematical equations. Fortunately, these equations have easy-to-comprehend and intuitive visual representations similar to the landscape metaphor. Thus, trajectories that represent CEs are informative and action guiding for both therapists and patients without knowledge on dynamic systems. However, the mathematical underpinnings of the model allow researchers to deduct hypotheses for empirical testing. Results: First, the results of simulations of CEs during exposure therapy in anxiety disorders are presented and compared to empirical findings. Second, hypothetical CEs in an autonomy-attachment conflict are reported from a simulation study. Discussion: Preliminary clinical implications for the evocation of CEs are drawn after a critical discussion of the proposed model.

Blind Deconvolution via Lower-Bounded Logarithmic Image Priors

In this work we devise two novel algorithms for blind deconvolution based on a family of logarithmic image priors. In contrast to recent approaches, we consider a minimalistic formulation of the blind deconvolution problem where there are only two energy terms: a least-squares term for the data fidelity and an image prior based on a lower-bounded logarithm of the norm of the image gradients. We show that this energy formulation is sufficient to achieve the state of the art in blind deconvolution with a good margin over previous methods. Much of the performance is due to the chosen prior. On the one hand, this prior is very effective in favoring sparsity of the image gradients. On the other hand, this prior is non convex. Therefore, solutions that can deal effectively with local minima of the energy become necessary. We devise two iterative minimization algorithms that at each iteration solve convex problems: one obtained via the primal-dual approach and one via majorization-minimization. While the former is computationally efficient, the latter achieves state-of-the-art performance on a public dataset.

New insights into the reconstructed temperature in Portugal over the last 400 years

The consistency of an existing reconstructed annual (December–November) temperature series for the Lisbon region (Portugal) from 1600 onwards, based on a European-wide reconstruction, with (1) five local borehole temperature–depth profiles; (2) synthetic temperature– depth profiles, generated from both reconstructed temperatures and two regional paleoclimate simulations in Portugal; (3) instrumental data sources over the twentieth century; and (4) temperature indices from documentary sources during the late Maunder Minimum (1675–1715) is assessed. The low-frequency variability in the reconstructed temperature in Portugal is not entirely consistent with local borehole temperature–depth profiles and with the simulated response of temperature in two regional paleoclimate simulations driven by reconstructions of various climate forcings. Therefore, the existing reconstructed series is calibrated by adjusting its low-frequency variability to the simulations (first-stage adjustment). The annual reconstructed series is then calibrated in its location and scale parameters, using the instrumental series and a linear regression between them (second-stage adjustment). This calibrated series shows clear footprints of the Maunder and Dalton minima, commonly related to changes in solar activity and explosive volcanic eruptions, and a strong recent-past warming, commonly related to human-driven forcing. Lastly, it is also in overall agreement with annual temperature indices over the late Maunder Minimum in Portugal. The series resulting from this post-reconstruction adjustment can be of foremost relevance to improve the current understanding of the driving mechanisms of climate variability in Portugal.

A regional climate palaeosimulation for Europe in the period 1500–1990 – Part 2: Shortcomings and strengths of models and reconstructions

This study compares gridded European seasonal series of surface air temperature (SAT) and precipitation (PRE) reconstructions with a regional climate simulation over the period 1500–1990. The area is analysed separately for nine subareas that represent the majority of the climate diversity in the European sector. In their spatial structure, an overall good agreement is found between the reconstructed and simulated climate features across Europe, supporting consistency in both products. Systematic biases between both data sets can be explained by a priori known deficiencies in the simulation. Simulations and reconstructions, however, largely differ in the temporal evolution of past climate for European subregions. In particular, the simulated anomalies during the Maunder and Dalton minima show stronger response to changes in the external forcings than recorded in the reconstructions. Although this disagreement is to some extent expected given the prominent role of internal variability in the evolution of regional temperature and precipitation, a certain degree of agreement is a priori expected in variables directly affected by external forcings. In this sense, the inability of the model to reproduce a warm period similar to that recorded for the winters during the first decades of the 18th century in the reconstructions is indicative of fundamental limitations in the simulation that preclude reproducing exceptionally anomalous conditions. Despite these limitations, the simulated climate is a physically consistent data set, which can be used as a benchmark to analyse the consistency and limitations of gridded reconstructions of different variables. A comparison of the leading modes of SAT and PRE variability indicates that reconstructions are too simplistic, especially for precipitation, which is associated with the linear statistical techniques used to generate the reconstructions. The analysis of the co-variability between sea level pressure (SLP) and SAT and PRE in the simulation yields a result which resembles the canonical co-variability recorded in the observations for the 20th century. However, the same analysis for reconstructions exhibits anomalously low correlations, which points towards a lack of dynamical consistency between independent reconstructions.

Ms. Barth. 84 - Postilla litteralis super Canticum canticorum, Isaiam, Ieremiam, Librum Threnorum, Ezechielem

Vorbesitzer: Johannes Oppeler de Butzbach; Bartholomaeusstift Frankfurt am Main

Ms. Barth. 81 - Postilla litteralis super epistolas Pauli

Vorbesitzer: Bartholomaeusstift Frankfurt am Main

Probing the Structure, Pseudorotation, and Radial Vibrations of Cyclopentane by Femtosecond Rotational Raman Coherence Spectroscopy

Femtosecond time-resolved Raman rotational coherence spectroscopy (RCS) is employed to determine accurate rotational, vibration–rotation coupling constants, and centrifugal distortion constants of cyclopentane (C⁵H¹⁰). Its lowest-frequency vibration is a pseudorotating ring deformation that interconverts 10 permutationally distinct but energetically degenerate “twist” minima interspersed by 10 “bent” conformers. While the individual twist and bent structures are polar asymmetric tops, the pseudorotation is fast on the time scale of external rotation, rendering cyclopentane a fluxionally nonpolar symmetric top molecule. The pseudorotational level pattern corresponds to a one-dimensional internal rotor with a pseudorotation constant Bps ≈ 2.8 cm⁻¹. The pseudorotational levels are significantly populated up to l = ± 13 at 298 K; <10% of the molecules are in the l = 0 level. The next-higher vibration is the “radial” ν²³ ring deformation mode at 273 cm⁻¹, which is far above the pseudorotational fundamental. Femtosecond Raman RCS measurements were performed in a gas cell at T = 293 K and in a pulsed supersonic jet at T ≈ 90 K. The jet cooling reduces the pseudorotational distribution to l < ±8 and eliminates the population of ν²³, allowing one to determine the rotational constant as A0 = B0 = 6484.930(11) MHz. This value is ∼300 times more precise than the previous value. The fit of the RCS transients reveals that the rotation–pseudorotation coupling constant αe,psB = −0.00070(1) MHz is diminutive, implying that excitation of the pseudorotation has virtually no effect on the B0 rotational constant of cyclopentane. The smallness of αe,psB can be realized when comparing to the vibration–rotation coupling constant of the ν²³ vibration, αe,23B = −9.547(1) MHz, which is about 10⁴ times larger.

Experimental and Calculated Spectra of π-Stacked Mild Charge-Transfer Complexes: Jet-Cooled Perylene·(Tetrachloroethene) n , n = 1,2

The S0 ↔ S1 spectra of the mild charge-transfer (CT) complexes perylene·tetrachloroethene (P·4ClE) and perylene·(tetrachloroethene)2 (P·(4ClE)2) are investigated by two-color resonant two-photon ionization (2C-R2PI) and dispersed fluorescence spectroscopy in supersonic jets. The S0 → S1 vibrationless transitions of P·4ClE and P·(4ClE)2 are shifted by δν = −451 and −858 cm–1 relative to perylene, translating to excited-state dissociation energy increases of 5.4 and 10.3 kJ/mol, respectively. The red shift is ∼30% larger than that of perylene·trans-1,2-dichloroethene; therefore, the increase in chlorination increases the excited-state stabilization and CT character of the interaction, but the electronic excitation remains largely confined to the perylene moiety. The 2C-R2PI and fluorescence spectra of P·4ClE exhibit strong progressions in the perylene intramolecular twist (1au) vibration (42 cm–1 in S0 and 55 cm–1 in S1), signaling that perylene deforms along its twist coordinate upon electronic excitation. The intermolecular stretching (Tz) and internal rotation (Rc) vibrations are weak; therefore, the P·4ClE intermolecular potential energy surface (IPES) changes little during the S0 ↔ S1 transition. The minimum-energy structures and inter- and intramolecular vibrational frequencies of P·4ClE and P·(4ClE)2 are calculated with the dispersion-corrected density functional theory (DFT) methods B97-D3, ωB97X-D, M06, and M06-2X and the spin-consistent-scaled (SCS) variant of the approximate second-order coupled-cluster method, SCS-CC2. All methods predict the global minima to be π-stacked centered coplanar structures with the long axis of tetrachloroethene rotated by τ ≈ 60° relative to the perylene long axis. The calculated binding energies are in the range of −D0 = 28–35 kJ/mol. A second minimum is predicted with τ ≈ 25°, with ∼1 kJ/mol smaller binding energy. Although both monomers are achiral, both the P·4ClE and P·(4ClE)2 complexes are chiral. The best agreement for adiabatic excitation energies and vibrational frequencies is observed for the ωB97X-D and M06-2X DFT methods.

Long-term forest fire ecology and dynamics in southern Switzerland

1 Pollen and charcoal analysis at two lakes in southern Switzerland revealed that fire has had a prominent role in changing the woodland composition of this area for more than 7000 years. 2 The sediment of Lago di Origlio for the period between 5100 and 3100 bc cal. was sampled continuously with a time interval of about 10 years. Peaks of charcoal particles were significantly correlated with repeated declines in pollen of Abies, Hedera, Tilia, Ulmus, Fraxinus excelsior t., Fagus and Vitis and with increases in Alnus glutinosa t., shrubs (e.g. Corylus, Salix and Sambucus nigra t.) and several herbaceous species. The final disappearance of the lowland Abies alba stands at around 3150 bc cal. may be an example of a fire-caused local extinction of a fire-intolerant species. 3 Forest fires tended to diminish pollen diversity. The charcoal peaks were preceded by pollen types indicating human activity. Charcoal minima occurred during periods of cold humid climate, when fire susceptibility would be reduced. 4 An increase of forest fires at about 2100 bc cal. severely reduced the remaining fire-sensitive plants: the mixed-oak forest was replaced by a fire-tolerant alder–oak forest. The very strong increase of charcoal influx, and the marked presence of anthropogenic indicators, point to principally anthropogenic causes. 5 We suggest that without anthropogenic disturbances Abies alba would still form lowland forests together with various deciduous broadleaved tree taxa.

SOMS: SurrOgate MultiStart algorithm for use with nonlinear programming for global optimization

SOMS is a general surrogate-based multistart algorithm, which is used in combination with any local optimizer to find global optima for computationally expensive functions with multiple local minima. SOMS differs from previous multistart methods in that a surrogate approximation is used by the multistart algorithm to help reduce the number of function evaluations necessary to identify the most promising points from which to start each nonlinear programming local search. SOMS’s numerical results are compared with four well-known methods, namely, Multi-Level Single Linkage (MLSL), MATLAB’s MultiStart, MATLAB’s GlobalSearch, and GLOBAL. In addition, we propose a class of wavy test functions that mimic the wavy nature of objective functions arising in many black-box simulations. Extensive comparisons of algorithms on the wavy testfunctions and on earlier standard global-optimization test functions are done for a total of 19 different test problems. The numerical results indicate that SOMS performs favorably in comparison to alternative methods and does especially well on wavy functions when the number of function evaluations allowed is limited.

Ms. Barth. 55 - Postilla super quattuor evangelia

Vorbesitzer: Bartholomaeusstift Frankfurt am Main

Complectens Partem Alteram Voluminis XXXI.

Vorlage d. Digitalisats aus d. Besitz d. Theol. Hochschule St. Georgen