Abundance of Belugas, Delphinapterus leucas, in Cook Inlet, Alaska, 1994–2000

Annual abundance estimates of belugas, Delphinapterus leucas, in Cook Inlet were calculated from counts made by aerial observers and aerial video recordings. Whale group-size estimates were corrected for subsurface whales (availability bias) and whales that were at the surface but were missed (detection bias). Logistic regression was used to estimate the probability that entire groups were missed during the systematic surveys, and the results were used to calculate a correction to account for the whales in these missed groups (1.015, CV = 0.03 in 1994–98; 1.021, CV = 0.01 in 1999– 2000). Calculated abundances were 653 (CV = 0.43) in 1994, 491 (CV = 0.44) in 1995, 594 (CV = 0.28) in 1996, 440 (CV = 0.14) in 1997, 347 (CV = 0.29) in 1998, 367 (CV = 0.14) in 1999, and 435 (CV = 0.23, 95% CI=279–679) in 2000. For management purposes the current Nbest = 435 and Nmin = 360. These estimates replace preliminary estimates of 749 for 1994 and 357 for 1999. Monte Carlo simulations indicate a 47% probability that from June 1994 to June 1998 abundance of the Cook Inlet stock of belugas was depleted by 50%. The decline appears to have stopped in 1998.

Custo-efetividade da prova tuberculínica versus QuantiFERON-TB Gold-In-Tube no diagnóstico e tratamento da infecção latente tuberculosa em profissionais de saúde da Atenção Básica no Brasil.

Os profissionais da área da saúde formam um dos grupos mais vulneráveis à infecção pelo Mycobacterium tuberculosis (Mtb). Segundo estimativas da Organização Mundial de Saúde (OMS), 8,8 milhões de pessoas estavam infectadas pelo Mtb e ocorreram 1,4 milhão de óbitos por tuberculose (TB) em 2010. A identificação de pessoas com Infecção Latente Tuberculosa (ILTB) é considerada pela OMS como uma prioridade no controle da doença, especialmente em países em desenvolvimento em que a incidência da doença ativa tem apresentado redução. O objetivo do presente trabalho foi avaliar, no Brasil, o custo-efetividade dos testes Prova Tuberculínica (PT) e Quantiferon TB Gold-In-Tube (QTF-GIT) no diagnóstico e tratamento da ILTB em profissionais de saúde atuantes na atenção básica, sob a perspectiva do Sistema Único de Saúde (SUS), comparando cinco estratégias que incluem o QTF-GIT, distintos pontos de corte para a PT e uso sequencial dos dois testes; e analisar o impacto do tabagismo sobre o risco de ILTB entre os profissionais de saúde, destacando-se a categoria da Enfermagem. Foi realizada uma avaliação econômica completa do tipo custo-efetividade, conduzida considerando uma coorte hipotética de 10.000 profissionais de saúde atuantes na atenção básica, com horizonte temporal restrito a um ano. Um modelo analítico de decisão, caracterizado por uma árvore de probabilidades de eventos, foi desenvolvido utilizando o software TreeAge ProTM 2013 para simular os resultados clínicos e impactos econômicos em saúde da nova tecnologia diagnóstica (QTF-GIT) versus a PT tradicional. Esse modelo simulou cinco estratégias diagnósticas para detecção e tratamento da ILTB: (a) PT, usando ponto de corte de 5mm; (b) PT, usando ponto de corte de 10 mm; (c) teste QTF-GIT; (d) PT, com ponto de corte de 5mm, seguida de teste QTF-GIT quando PT positiva; (e) PT, com ponto de corte de 10mm, seguida de teste QTF-GIT quando PT positiva. Foi realizada análise de sensibilidade determinística univariada. Na determinação dos fatores associados à ILTB, foi elaborado um modelo de regressão logística múltipla com seleção hierarquizada, utilizando o software Stata. A estratégia mais custo-efetiva foi a PT no ponto de corte ≥10mm, considerando como medida de desfecho tanto o número de indivíduos corretamente classificados pelos testes assim como o número de casos de TB evitados. A utilização isolada do QTF-GIT revelou-se a estratégia de menor eficiência, com RCEI= R$ 343,24 por profissional corretamente classificado pelo teste. Encontrou-se risco à ILTB significantemente maior para sexo masculino [OR=1,89; IC 95%:1,11-3,20], idade ≥ 41 anos [OR=1,56; IC 95%: 1.09-2,22], contato próximo com familiar com TB [OR=1,55; IC 95%: 1.02-2,36], status do tabagismo fumante [OR=1,75; IC 95%: 1.03-2,98] e categoria profissional da Enfermagem [OR=1,44; IC 95%: 1.02-2,03]. Concluiu-se que a PT no ponto de corte de 10mm é a estratégia diagnóstica mais custo-efetiva para ILTB entre os profissionais de saúde na atenção básica e que a ILTB está associada ao hábito do tabagismo e à categoria profissional de Enfermagem.

Design, construction and evaluation of systems to predict risk in obstetrics.

We present a systematic, practical approach to developing risk prediction systems, suitable for use with large databases of medical information. An important part of this approach is a novel feature selection algorithm which uses the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve to measure the expected discriminative power of different sets of predictor variables. We describe this algorithm and use it to select variables to predict risk of a specific adverse pregnancy outcome: failure to progress in labour. Neural network, logistic regression and hierarchical Bayesian risk prediction models are constructed, all of which achieve close to the limit of performance attainable on this prediction task. We show that better prediction performance requires more discriminative clinical information rather than improved modelling techniques. It is also shown that better diagnostic criteria in clinical records would greatly assist the development of systems to predict risk in pregnancy.

Skin lesions on common bottlenose dolphins (Tursiops truncatus) from three sites in the Northwest Atlantic, USA

Skin disease occurs frequently in many cetacean species across the globe; methods to categorize lesions have relied on photo-identification (photo-id), stranding, and bycatch data. The current study used photo-id data from four sampling months during 2009 to estimate skin lesion prevalence and type occurring on bottlenose dolphins (Tursiops truncatus) from three sites along the southeast United States coast [Sarasota Bay, FL (SSB); near Brunswick and Sapelo Island, GA (BSG); and near Charleston, SC (CHS)]. The prevalence of lesions was highest among BSG dolphins (P=0.587) and lowest in SSB (P=0.380), and the overall prevalence was significantly different among all sites (p<0.0167). Logistic regression modeling revealed a significant reduction in the odds of lesion occurrence for increasing water temperatures (OR=0.92; 95%CI:0.906-0.938) and a significantly increased odds of lesion occurrence for BSG dolphins (OR=1.39; 95%CI:1.203-1.614). Approximately one-third of the lesioned dolphins from each site presented with multiple types, and population differences in lesion type occurrence were observed (p<0.05). Lesions on stranded dolphins were sampled to determine the etiology of different lesion types, which included three visually distinct samples positive for herpesvirus. Although generally considered non-fatal, skin disease may be indicative of animal health or exposure to anthropogenic or environmental threats, and photo-id data provide an efficient and cost-effective approach to document the occurrence of skin lesions in free-ranging populations.

Predicting the distribution of Vibrio vulnificus in Chesapeake Bay

Vibrio vulnificus is a gram-negative pathogenic bacterium endemic to coastal waters worldwide, and a leading cause of seafood related mortality. Because of human health concerns, understanding the ecology of the species and potentially predicting its distribution is of great importance. We evaluated and applied a previously published qPCR assay to water samples (n = 235) collected from the main-stem of the Chesapeake Bay (2007 – 2008) by Maryland and Virginia State water quality monitoring programs. Results confirmed strong relationships between the likelihood of Vibrio vulnificus presence and both temperature and salinity that were used to develop a logistic regression model. The habitat model demonstrated a high degree of concordance (93%), and robustness as subsequent bootstrapping (n=1000) did not change model output (P > 0.05). We forced this empirical habitat model with temperature and salinity predictions generated by a regional hydrodynamic modeling system to demonstrate its utility in future pathogen forecasting efforts in the Chesapeake Bay.

An environmentally based growth model that uses finite difference calculus with maximum likelihood method: its application to the brackish water bivalve Corbicula japonica in Lake Abashiri, Japan

We present a growth analysis model that combines large amounts of environmental data with limited amounts of biological data and apply it to Corbicula japonica. The model uses the maximum-likelihood method with the Akaike information criterion, which provides an objective criterion for model selection. An adequate distribution for describing a single cohort is selected from available probability density functions, which are expressed by location and scale parameters. Daily relative increase rates of the location parameter are expressed by a multivariate logistic function with environmental factors for each day and categorical variables indicating animal ages as independent variables. Daily relative increase rates of the scale parameter are expressed by an equation describing the relationship with the daily relative increase rate of the location parameter. Corbicula japonica grows to a modal shell length of 0.7 mm during the first year in Lake Abashiri. Compared with the attain-able maximum size of about 30 mm, the growth of juveniles is extremely slow because their growth is less susceptible to environmental factors until the second winter. The extremely slow growth in Lake Abashiri could be a geographical genetic variation within C. japonica.

Reproductive biology of the blue swimmer crab (Portunus pelagicus, Decapoda: Portunidae) in five bodies of water on the west coast of Australia

Portunus pelagicus was collected at regular intervals from two marine embayments and two estuaries on the lower west coast of Australia and from a large embayment located approximately 800 km farther north. The samples were used to obtain data on the reproductive biology of this species in three very different environments. Unlike females, the males show a loosening of the attachment of the abdominal flap to the cephalothorax at a prepubertal rather than a pubertal molt. Males become gonadally mature (spermatophores and seminal fluid present in the medial region of the vas deferentia) at a very similar carapace width (CW) to that at which they achieve morphometric maturity, as reflected by a change in the relative size of the largest cheliped. Logistic curves, derived from the prevalence of mature male P. pelagicus, generally had wider confidence limits with morphometric than with gonadal data. This presumably reflects the fact that the morphometric (allometric) method of classifying a male P. pelagicus as mature employs probabilities and is thus indirect, whereas gonadal structure allows a mature male to be readily identified. However, the very close correspondence between the CW50’s derived for P. pelagicus by the two methods implies that either method can be used for management purposes. Portunus pelagicus attained maturity at a significantly greater size in the large embayment than in the four more southern bodies of water, where water temperatures were lower and the densities of crabs and fishing pressure were greater. As a result of the emigration of mature female P. pelagicus from estuaries, the CW50’s derived by using the prevalence of mature females in estuaries represent overestimates for those populations as a whole. Estimates of the number of egg batches produced in a spawning season ranged from one in small crabs to three in large crabs. These data, together with the batch fecundities of different size crabs, indicate that the estimated number of eggs produced by P. pelagicus during the spawning season ranges from about 78,000 in small crabs (CW=80 mm) to about 1,000,000 in large crabs (CW=180 mm).

Distribution of CCR2-64I and SDF1-3 ' A alleles and HIV status in 7 ethnic populations of Cameroon

Limited information is available on the prevalence among rural Africans of host genetic polymorphisms conferring resistance to HIV-1 infection or slowing HIV disease progression.We report the allelic frequencies of the AIDS-related polymorphisms CCR2-64I, SDF1-3#A, and CCR5-D32 in 321 volunteers from 7 ethnic groups in Cameroon. Allelic frequencies differed among the 7 ethnic groups, ranging from 10.8% to 31.3% for CCR2-64I and 0.0% to 7.1% for SDF1-3#A. No CCR5-D32 alleles were found. HIV seroprevalence was 6.9% in the total population and peaked at younger ages in girls and women than in boys and men. Among 15- to 54-year-olds, HIV seroprevalence varied from 2.0% to 11.1% among the village populations. Conditional logistic regression analysis using data from boys and men aged 15 to 54 years showed the number of CCR2-64I alleles to be a significant risk factor for HIV seropositivity (odds ratio per allele adjusted for age and matched on ethnic group = 6.3, 95% confidence interval: 1.3–30.3); this association was not found in women. The findings are consistent with the hypothesis that CCR2-64I alleles may delay HIV disease progression without affecting susceptibility to infection among men. We did not observe this relation among women, and other factors, such as multiple pregnancies or maternal stressors (eg, breastfeeding), may have masked any protective effect of CCR2-64I alleles. Further study of this issue among women is warranted. SDF1-3#A did not differ between HIV-seropositive and HIV-seronegative individuals but wasassociated with increasing age among HIV-seronegative women, suggesting a protective effect against HIV-1 infection.

On the origin of new genes in Drosophila

Several mechanisms have been proposed to account for the origination of new genes. Despite extensive case studies, the general principles governing this fundamental process are still unclear at the whole-genome level. Here, we unveil genome-wide patterns

Temperature-Dependent Growth and Life Cycle of Nemoura sichuanensis (Plecoptera: Nemouridae) in a Chinese Mountain Stream

Plecoptera constitute a numerically and ecologically significant component in mountain streams all over the world, but little is known of their life cycles in Asia. The life cycle of Nemoura sichuanensis and its relationship to water temperature was investigated during a 4-year study in a headwater stream (known as the Jiuchong torrent) of the Xiangxi River in Central China. Size structure histograms suggest that the life cycle was univoltine, and the relationships between the growth of Nemoura sichuanensis, physiological time, and effective accumulated water temperature were described using logistic regressions. The growth pattern was generally similar within year classes but growth rates did vary between year-classes. Our field data suggest a critical thermal threshold for emergence in Nemoura sichuanensis, that was close to 9 degrees C. The total number of physiological days required for completing larval development was 250 days. The effective accumulated water temperature was 2500 degree-days in the field. Development during the life cycle increased somewhat linearly with the physiological time and the effective accumulated water temperature, but some non-linear relationships were best developed by logistic equations.

The growth patterns of juvenile and precocious Chinese mitten crabs, Eriocheir sinensis (Decapoda, Grapsidae), stocked in freshwater lakes of China

Stocking experiments with Eriocheir sinensis were conducted in two small, shallow lakes to study its growth pattern in 1994-1997. For the initially immature crabs, carapace width (CW) increases from 21.2 +/- 0.4 mm (mean +/- s.e.) for females and 22.3 +/- 0.5 mm for males in January, to 65.4 +/- 0.5 mm for females and 66.9 +/- 0.6 mm for males in October. There is no significant difference in CW and carapace length (CL), although there is a large difference in body weight (BW) between sexes in every month from January to August when crabs are juvenile, however, there are significant differences in CW, CL. and BW between sexes after September when the crabs become sexually mature. The growth curve from January to October fits a logistic equation and may be expressed as CW = 75.7 (1 + exp (0.914 - 0.011t))(-1) for females, and CW = 77.5 (1 + exp (0.889 - 0.011t))-1 for males, where CW is in mm, t in days. For precocious crabs (reaching maturity by the first autumn, CW does not change much from January to July, which indicates that precocious crabs stop growing. Like juveniles, the precocious crabs show no differences in CW and CL, but do show a statistically significant difference in BW between sexes.

The study of banded spherulite patterns by coupled logistic map lattice model

Banded spherulite patterns are simulated in two dimensions by means of a coupled logistic map lattice model. Both target pattern and spiral pattern which have been proved to be existent experimentally in banded spherulite are obtained by choosing suitable parameters in the model. The simulation results also indicate that the band spacing is decreased with the increase of parameter mu in the logistic map and increased with the increase of the coupling parameter epsilon, which is quite similar to the results in some experiments. Moreover, the relationship between the parameters and the corresponding patterns is obtained, and the target patterns and spiral patterns are distinguished for a given group of initial values, which may guide the study of banded spherulite.

Prevalence of Asthma Symptoms and Associated Factors in Schoolchildren from Brazilian Amazon Islands

Objectives. To determine the prevalence of asthma symptoms among schoolchildren living on two different Brazilian Amazon islands and to identify the risk factors related to this condition. Methods. A cross-sectional study of 400 schoolchildren (5-8 years old) using written questionnaires produced by the International Study of Asthma and Allergies in Childhood, a skin prick test (allergic sensitization), and a stool examination (for helminthic infection). Nonparametric tests were carried out, and the risk factors were identified by logistic regression. Results. the prevalence of active asthma symptoms was markedly higher in children living on Outeiro Island (OI) than those living on Comb Island (CBI) (30.5% and 16.5%, respectively). the logistic regression identified several risk factors of asthma symptoms on CBI: parental history of asthma, night coughing in the past year, and currently have a cat. On OI, the major risk factors were parental history of asthma, personal history of eczema, having two or more older siblings, and night coughing in the past year. the risk factors in common on both the islands were night coughing in the past year and parental history of asthma. Conclusions. the prevalence of asthma symptoms was higher in those with a lifestyle closer to that observed in urban areas (i.e., better sanitation and hygiene), reinforcing the protective effect of a rural environment. Different risk factors were associated with asthma symptoms in schoolchildren living on OI and on CBI. This fact may reflect the environmental individuality and particularities of each island.

Early determinants of overweight and obesity at 5 years old in preschoolers from inner of Minas Gerais, Brazil

Introduction: Brazil is experiencing a nutritional transition characterized by a reduction in the prevalence of nutritional deficits and an increase in overweight and obesity, not only in adults but also in children and adolescents.Objectives: This study was designed to evaluate the factors associated with overweight and obesity in Brazilian 5-year-old preschoolers.Methods: A cross-sectional study of a cohort of 232 preschoolers born in Diamantina/Minas Gerais, Brazil, was undertaken. the data, including socioeconomic status, anthropometry, diet, previous history of the preschoolers and family history, were collected between July of 2009 and July of 2010. To identify the factors associated with overweight and obesity, a logistic regression and a hierarchical model were undertaken.Results: Overweight and obesity occurred in 17.2% of the preschoolers. After adjusting for mother's obesity, per capita income, protective food intake, weight gain at age 0-4 months and time spent playing, the factors associated with overweight and obesity that reached statistical significance were mother's obesity [OR = 3.12 (95% CI 1.41-6.91), P = 0.01], weight gain of more than 0.85 kg/month in the first four months of life [OR = 2.16 (95% CI 1.01-4.64), P = 0.041 and lower per capita income [OR = 0.32 (95 %CI 0.13-0.79), P = 0.01].Conclusion: the results show that more weight gain during the first four months of life and being born of mothers with obesity increased the odds of overweight/obesity in the preschoolers, while lower per capita income was a protective factor.