978 resultados para Logistic Regressions
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Trabalho de projecto apresentado como requisito parcial para obtenção do grau de Mestre em Estatística e Gestão de Informação
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Trabalho de Projecto apresentado como requisito parcial para obtenção do grau de Mestre em Estatistica e Gestão de Informação.
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INTRODUCTION: A growing body of evidence shows the prognostic value of oxygen uptake efficiency slope (OUES), a cardiopulmonary exercise test (CPET) parameter derived from the logarithmic relationship between O(2) consumption (VO(2)) and minute ventilation (VE) in patients with chronic heart failure (CHF). OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the prognostic value of a new CPET parameter - peak oxygen uptake efficiency (POUE) - and to compare it with OUES in patients with CHF. METHODS: We prospectively studied 206 consecutive patients with stable CHF due to dilated cardiomyopathy - 153 male, aged 53.3±13.0 years, 35.4% of ischemic etiology, left ventricular ejection fraction 27.7±8.0%, 81.1% in sinus rhythm, 97.1% receiving ACE-Is or ARBs, 78.2% beta-blockers and 60.2% spironolactone - who performed a first maximal symptom-limited treadmill CPET, using the modified Bruce protocol. In 33% of patients an cardioverter-defibrillator (ICD) or cardiac resynchronization therapy device (CRT-D) was implanted during follow-up. Peak VO(2), percentage of predicted peak VO(2), VE/VCO(2) slope, OUES and POUE were analyzed. OUES was calculated using the formula VO(2) (l/min) = OUES (log(10)VE) + b. POUE was calculated as pVO(2) (l/min) / log(10)peakVE (l/min). Correlation coefficients between the studied parameters were obtained. The prognosis of each variable adjusted for age was evaluated through Cox proportional hazard models and R2 percent (R2%) and V index (V6) were used as measures of the predictive accuracy of events of each of these variables. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves from logistic regression models were used to determine the cut-offs for OUES and POUE. RESULTS: pVO(2): 20.5±5.9; percentage of predicted peak VO(2): 68.6±18.2; VE/VCO(2) slope: 30.6±8.3; OUES: 1.85±0.61; POUE: 0.88±0.27. During a mean follow-up of 33.1±14.8 months, 45 (21.8%) patients died, 10 (4.9%) underwent urgent heart transplantation and in three patients (1.5%) a left ventricular assist device was implanted. All variables proved to be independent predictors of this combined event; however, VE/VCO2 slope was most strongly associated with events (HR 11.14). In this population, POUE was associated with a higher risk of events than OUES (HR 9.61 vs. 7.01), and was also a better predictor of events (R2: 28.91 vs. 22.37). CONCLUSION: POUE was more strongly associated with death, urgent heart transplantation and implantation of a left ventricular assist device and proved to be a better predictor of events than OUES. These results suggest that this new parameter can increase the prognostic value of CPET in patients with CHF.
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Burn mortality statistics may be misleading unless they account properly for the many factors that can influence outcome. Such estimates are useful for patients and others making medical and financial decisions concerning their care. This study aimed to define the clinical, microbiological and laboratorial predictors of mortality with a view to focus on better burn care. Data were collected using independent variables, which were analyzed sequentially and cumulatively, employing univariate statistics and a pooled, cross-sectional, multivariate logistic regression to establish which variables better predict the probability of mortality. Survivors and non-survivors among burn patients were compared to define the predictive factors of mortality. Mortality rate was 5.0%. Higher age, larger burn area, presence of fungi in the wound, shorter length of stay and the presence of multi-resistant bacteria in the wound significantly predicted increased mortality. The authors conclude that those patients who are most apt to die are those with age > 50 years, with limited skin donor sites and those with multi-resistant bacteria and fungi in the wound.
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The authors analyzed 704 transthoracic echocardiographic (TTE) examinations, performed routinely to all admitted patients to a general 16-bed Intensive Care Unit (ICU) during an 18-month period. Data acquisition and prevalence of abnormalities of cardiac structures and function were assessed, as well as the new, previously unknown severe diagnoses. A TTE was performed within the first 24 h of admission on 704 consecutive patients, with a mean age of 61.5+/-17.5 years, ICU stay of 10.6+/-17.1 days, APACHE II 22.6+/-8.9, and SAPS II 52.7+/-20.4. In four patients, TTE could not be performed. Left ventricular (LV) dimensions were quantified in 689 (97.8%) patients, and LV function in 670 (95.2%) patients. Cardiac output (CO) was determined in 610 (86.7%), and mitral E/A in 399 (85.9% of patients in sinus rhythm). Echocardiographic abnormalities were detected in 234 (33%) patients, the most common being left atrial (LA) enlargement (n=163), and LV dysfunction (n=132). Patients with these alterations were older (66+/-16.5 vs 58.1+/-17.4, p<0.001), presented a higher APACHE II score (24.4+/-8.7 vs 21.1+/-8.9, p<0.001), and had a higher mortality rate (40.1% vs 25.4%, p<0.001). Severe, previously unknown echocardiographic diagnoses were detected in 53 (7.5%) patients; the most frequent condition was severe LV dysfunction. Through a multivariate logistic regression analysis, it was determined that mortality was affected by tricuspid regurgitation (p=0.016, CI 1.007-1.016) and ICU stay (p<0.001, CI 1-1.019). We conclude that TTE can detect most cardiac structures in a general ICU. One-third of the patients studied presented cardiac structural or functional alterations and 7.5% severe previously unknown diagnoses.
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PURPOSE: To describe the anatomy and imaging findings of the prostatic arteries (PAs) on multirow-detector pelvic computed tomographic (CT) angiography and digital subtraction angiography (DSA) before embolization for symptomatic benign prostatic hyperplasia (BPH). MATERIALS AND METHODS: In a retrospective study from May 2010 to June 2011, 75 men (150 pelvic sides) underwent pelvic CT angiography and selective pelvic DSA before PA embolization for BPH. Each pelvic side was evaluated regarding the number of independent PAs and their origin, trajectory, termination, and anastomoses with adjacent arteries. RESULTS: A total of 57% of pelvic sides (n = 86) had only one PA, and 43% (n = 64) had two independent PAs identified (mean PA diameter, 1.6 mm ± 0.3). PAs originated from the internal pudendal artery in 34.1% of pelvic sides (n = 73), from a common trunk with the superior vesical artery in 20.1% (n = 43), from the anterior common gluteal-pudendal trunk in 17.8% (n = 38), from the obturator artery in 12.6% (n = 27), and from a common trunk with rectal branches in 8.4% (n = 18). In 57% of pelvic sides (n = 86), anastomoses to adjacent arteries were documented. There were 30 pelvic sides (20%) with accessory pudendal arteries in close relationship with the PAs. No correlations were found between PA diameter and patient age, prostate volume, or prostate-specific antigen values on multivariate analysis with logistic regression. CONCLUSIONS: PAs have highly variable origins between the left and right sides and between patients, and most frequently arise from the internal pudendal artery.
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INTRODUCTION: Metabolic syndrome (MS) is an independent predictor of acute cardiovascular events. However, few studies have addressed the relationship between MS and stable angiographic coronary artery disease (CAD), which has a different pathophysiological mechanism. We aimed to study the independent predictors for significant CAD, and to analyze the impact of MS (by the AHA/NHLBI definition) on CAD. METHODS: We prospectively included 300 patients, mean age 64±9 years, 59% male, admitted for elective coronary angiography (suspected ischemic heart disease), excluding patients with known cardiac disease. All patients underwent assessment of demographic, anthropometric, and laboratory data and risk factors, and subsequently underwent coronary angiography. RESULTS: In the study population, 23.0% were diabetic, 40.5% had MS (and no diabetes) and 36.7% had neither diagnosis. Significant CAD was present in 51.3% of patients. CAD patients were older and more frequently male and diabetic, with increased triglycerides and glucose and lower HDL cholesterol. Abdominal obesity was also less prevalent. MS was not associated with the presence of CAD (OR 0.94, 95% CI 0.59-1.48, p=0.778). Of the MS components, the most important predictors of CAD were increased glucose and triglycerides. Abdominal obesity was associated with a lower risk of CAD. In a multivariate logistic regression model for CAD, independent predictors of CAD were age, male gender, glucose and triglycerides. Body mass index had a protective effect. CONCLUSIONS: Although MS is associated with cardiovascular events, the same was not found for stable angiographically proven CAD. Age, gender, diabetes and triglycerides are the most influential factors for CAD, with abdominal obesity as a protective factor.
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Background: Although changes in eating patterns may occur during gestation, predictors of these changes have not been explored. This study aimed to identify predictors of adherence to the Mediterranean diet (MD) from the first to second trimester of pregnancy. Methods: A prospective study was conducted with 102 pregnant women aged 18-40, from the city of Porto, Portugal. Socio-demographic and lifestyle characteristics were assessed through a questionnaire. Food consumption was assessed with a three-day food diary completed during the first and second trimesters. Participants were categorized according to their change in adherence to the MD into the negative change group (i.e., women who had low adherence in each trimester or had high adherence in the first trimester and then low adherence in the second) and the positive change group (i.e., women who had high adherence in both trimesters or had low adherence in the first trimester and then high adherence in the second). Conditional stepwise logistic regression models were performed to assess the potential predictors of negative MD change. Results: Among the 102 women, 39.2% had negative change from the first to the second trimester. The logistic model´s results show that being married (OR=0.26, 95%CI: 0.10, 0.76) and having a higher intake of vegetables in the first trimester (OR=0.17, 95%CI: 0.10, 0.43) were associated with lower odds of having a negative change in adherence to the MD from the first to second trimester. Conclusion: Marital status and vegetable consumption seem to be associated with a lower occurrence of negative change in adherence to the MD from early to middle pregnancy.
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Background: Children with spina bifida represent the major risk group for latex sensitization. Purpose: To determine the prevalence of latex sensitization in these children and to identify risk factors. Material and methods: We studied 57 patients with spina bifida. The mean age was 5.6 years and the male/female ratio was 0.8/1. In all patients a questionnaire, skin prick test (SPT) with latex (UCBStallergènes, Lofarma and ALK-Abelló), common aeroallergens and fruits (UCB-Stallergènes) and serum determination of total IgE (AlaSTAT) were performed. Results: The prevalence of latex sensitization was 30 %; only two sensitized children (12 %) had symptoms after exposure. Risk factors for latex sensitization were age 5 years (p = 0.008; OR = 6.0; 95% CI = 1.7-22.1), having at least four previous surgical interventions (p < 0.0001; OR = 18.5; 95% CI = 3.6-94.8), having undergone surgery in the first 3 months of life (p = 0.008; OR = 5.4; 95% CI = 0.7-29.2) and total serum IgE 44 IU/ml (p = 0.03; OR = 3.8; 95 %CI = 1.1-13.1). Multiple logistic regression analysis showed that only a history of four or more surgical interventions (p < 0.0001; OR = 26.3; 95 %CI = 2.9-234.2) and total serum IgE 44 IU/ml (p = 0.02; OR = 8.6; 95% CI = 1.4-53.4) were independently associated with latex sensitization. Sex, family and personal allergic history, hydrocephalus with ventriculoperitoneal shunt, cystourethrograms, intermittent bladder catheterization and atopy were not related to latex sensitization. Conclusions: In children with spina bifida, significant and independent risk factors identified for latex sensitization were multiple interventions and higher levels of total serum IgE. A prospective study will clarify the clinical evolution of assymptomatic children sensitized to latex.
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Introduction and hypothesis Puborectalis avulsion is a likely etiological factor for female pelvic organ prolapse(FPOP). We performed a study to establish minimal sonographic criteria for the diagnosis of avulsion. Methods We analysed datasets of 764 women seen at a urogynecological service. Offline analysis of ultrasound datasets was performed blinded to patient data. Tomographic ultrasound imaging (TUI) was used to diagnose avulsion of the puborectalis muscle. Results Logistic regression modelling of TUI data showed that complete avulsion is best diagnosed by requiring the three central tomographic slices to be abnormal. This finding was obtained in 30% of patients and was associated with symptoms and signs of FPOP (P<0.001). Lesser degrees of trauma (‘partial avulsion’) were not associated with symptoms or signs of pelvic floor dysfunction. Conclusions Complete avulsion of the puborectalis muscle is best diagnosed on TUI by requiring all three central slices to be abnormal. Partial trauma seems of limited clinical relevance.
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O desenvolvimento do processo de produção de um produto para a indústria automóvel é sempre um desafio de nível de dificuldade exigente. Este trabalho teve por base o estudo do desenvolvimento do processo de produção de um produto para a área automóvel, constituído por diversos componentes e exigindo diversas etapas de produção. O desafio partiu de um cliente da SIMOLDES - PLÁSTICOS, S.A. que necessitava de uma peça em plástico para um novo modelo de automóvel. Foram estabelecidas as condições iniciais impostas pelo cliente e foram estudados os condicionalismos impostos pelas mesmas. Foram estudadas diferentes alternativas com vista à optimização do processo, garantindo a qualidade e tentando minimizar o custo final do produto. Foi realizada uma optimização dos moldes, por forma a poderem ser utilizadas máquinas com Força de Fecho mais baixa. Foram desenvolvidos alguns equipamentos que permitiram à empresa optar por novas formas de produção, utilizando materiais mais amigos do ambiente. Foram estudadas as condições de distribuição e optimização das tarefas, com vista à garantia do cumprimento dos prazos de entrega exigidos pelo cliente. Foi estudado o ‘layout’ que optimizou as operações de transporte das diferentes peças que constituem o produto final. Este trabalho foi elaborado com base num trabalho desenvolvido e implementado na SIMOLDES – PLÁSTICOS, S.A.
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Objectives: To assess induced labor-associated perinatal infection risk at Hospital D.Estefânia from January to June of 2010 at Hospital de D. Estefânia’s delivery rooms, reviewing the indications for inducing labor as well as the techniques used. Material and Methods: Performing an historical prospective study searching the clinical processes as well as the mother and newborn’s computer database from January to June of 2010. An exposed and an unexposed group were created; the first group comprises pregnant women and their newborns whose labor was induced. The unexposed group is constituted by newborns and pregnant women whose labor was spontaneous. Labor induction was performed using intra-vaginal prostaglandins in women who didn’t start it spontaneously; perinatal infection was defined either clinically or using blood tests. The gestational age was ≥ 37 weeks for both groups. 19 variables were studied for both groups. Results: A total of 190 mother-newborn pairs were included: 55 in the exposed group and 135 in the unexposed group. 3 cases of perinatal infection were reported, two in the exposed group and one in the unexposed group. Preliminary data resulted in a perinatal infection rate of 3.6% in the exposed group and 0.7% in the unexposed group; preliminary data suggest that the risk of perinatal infection may be increased in up to 5-fold when labor is inducted. Conclusions: A larger series of patients and a multivariable analysis using logistic regression are both necessary in order to perform a more thorough assessment of labor induction’s role in perinatal infection risk. One must also try to distinguish labor inducing- and clinical practicesrelated factors.
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Women account for 30% of all AIDS cases reported to the Health Ministry in Portugal and most infections are acquired through unprotected heterosexual sex with infected partners. This study analyzed socio-demographic and psychosocial predictors of consistent condom use and the role of education as a moderator variable among Portuguese women attending family planning clinics. A cross-sectional study using interviewer-administered fully structured questionnaires was conducted among 767 sexually active women (ages 18–65). Logistic regression analyses were used to explore the association between consistent condom use and the predictor variables. Overall, 78.7% of the women were inconsistent condom users. The results showed that consistent condom use was predicted by marital status (being not married), having greater perceptions of condom negotiation self-efficacy, having preparatory safer sexual behaviors, and not using condoms only when practicing abstinence. Living with a partner and having lack of risk perception significantly predicted inconsistent condom use. Less educated women were less likely to use condoms even when they perceive being at risk. The full model explained 53% of the variance in consistent condom use. This study emphasizes the need for implementing effective prevention interventions in this population showing the importance of taking education into consideration.
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Experimental and clinical data suggest a role of sex steroids in the pathogenesis of multiple sclerosis (MS). Scant information is available about the potential effect of oral contraceptive (OC) use on the prognosis of the disease. We aimed to evaluate this. The study population consisted of 132 women with relapsing-remitting MS before receiving disease modifying treatment and a mean disease duration 6.2 (SD 5.1) years. Three groups of patients were distinguished according to their OC behavior: [1] never-users, patients who never used OC [2] past-users, patients who stopped OC use before disease onset, and [3] after-users, those who used these drugs after disease onset. Multiple linear and logistic regression models were used to analyze the association between oral contraceptive use and annualized relapse rates, disability accumulation and severity of the disease. After-user patients had lower Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) and Multiple Sclerosis Severity Score (MSSS) values than never users (p<0.001 and p=0.002, respectively) and past users (p=0.010 and p=0.002, respectively). These patients were also more likely to have a benign disease course (MSSS<2.5) than never and past users together (OR: 4.52, 95%CI: 2.13-9.56, p<0.001). This effect remained significant after adjustment for confounders, including smoking and childbirths (OR: 2.97, 95%CI: 1.24, 6.54, p=0.011 and for MSSS β: -1.04; 95% C.I. -1.78, -0.30, p=0.006). These results suggest that OC use in women with relapsing-remitting MS is possible associated with a milder disabling disease course.
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A Logística, vista como uma perspetiva integradora entre os parceiros de negócio, com objetivos comuns de proporcionar ao cliente mais-valias e aspetos diferenciadores perante os outros concorrentes, contribui em muito na manutenção das empresas na globalização atual, que se torna cada vez mais flexível. Através de uma boa gestão de processos críticos de negócio, boa localização dos materiais, sejam eles quais forem, produtos finais, matérias-primas ou produtos em vias de fabrico e através do transporte a logística cria utilidade temporal e diferenciadora. De facto, a logística poderá assumir um papel fundamental em proporcionar valor acrescentado ao disponibilizar, a tempo, os serviços que os clientes necessitam ou esperam. Enquadrando-se na temática de gestão dos armazéns, o presente projeto consistiu no estudo de operações de picking com a finalidade de otimização dos processos de picking no armazém do operador logístico AR – Serviços de Logística, localizado em Ribeirão, Vila Nova de Famalicão. O trabalho inicial passou pelo levantamento do funcionamento das operações do processo de picking na empresa e posteriormente confrontá-los com as tecnologias e procedimentos atuais no mercado. Com base nos resultados obtidos, foi possível definir e implementar métricas enquadradas nas finalidades estratégicas e operacionais do operador logístico. As soluções passaram também pela melhoria da aplicação de gestão de armazéns (WMS), reavaliação dos indicadores previamente estabelecidos e na aquisição de equipamentos para automatização das operações picking e localizações. Os registos e informações relacionadas com os módulos fulcrais são armazenados e tratados na base de dados de suporte à aplicação com contributo de melhoria contínua aos procedimentos logístico da empresa e sua relação com os stakeholders na estratégia global de negócio com o operador logístico. Finalmente, foi possível analisar os resultados obtidos em modo real em relação as estimativas calculadas e definidas na fase de implementação e desenvolvimento.