Global-scale climate impact functions: the relationship between climate forcing and impact

Although there is a strong policy interest in the impacts of climate change corresponding to different degrees of climate change, there is so far little consistent empirical evidence of the relationship between climate forcing and impact. This is because the vast majority of impact assessments use emissions-based scenarios with associated socio-economic assumptions, and it is not feasible to infer impacts at other temperature changes by interpolation. This paper presents an assessment of the global-scale impacts of climate change in 2050 corresponding to defined increases in global mean temperature, using spatially-explicit impacts models representing impacts in the water resources, river flooding, coastal, agriculture, ecosystem and built environment sectors. Pattern-scaling is used to construct climate scenarios associated with specific changes in global mean surface temperature, and a relationship between temperature and sea level used to construct sea level rise scenarios. Climate scenarios are constructed from 21 climate models to give an indication of the uncertainty between forcing and response. The analysis shows that there is considerable uncertainty in the impacts associated with a given increase in global mean temperature, due largely to uncertainty in the projected regional change in precipitation. This has important policy implications. There is evidence for some sectors of a non-linear relationship between global mean temperature change and impact, due to the changing relative importance of temperature and precipitation change. In the socio-economic sectors considered here, the relationships are reasonably consistent between socio-economic scenarios if impacts are expressed in proportional terms, but there can be large differences in absolute terms. There are a number of caveats with the approach, including the use of pattern-scaling to construct scenarios, the use of one impacts model per sector, and the sensitivity of the shape of the relationships between forcing and response to the definition of the impact indicator.

Income differentials and corporate performance

Purpose – This paper seeks to make the case for new research into the perceived fairness and impact of executive pay. Design/methodology/approach – The paper reviews the literature regarding executive compensation and corporate performance and examines the evidence that a more egalitarian approach to pay could be justified in terms of long-term shareholder value. Findings – There would appear to be no evidence to suggest that the growing gap between the pay of executives and that of the average employee generates long-term enterprise value, and it may even be detrimental to firms, if not the liberal capitalist consensus on which the corporate licence to operate is based. Research limitations/implications – The paper outlines a new approach to tracking income differentials with corporate performance through the development of a corporate Gini coefficient “league table”. Social implications – The proposed research is expected to point towards better practice in executive remuneration, and support the growing momentum for a sustainable and enlightened approach to business, in which the key goal is long-term enterprise value based on a fair distribution of the rewards of business. Originality/value – In producing a deeper understanding of the impact of widening income differentials, the paper should be of interest to senior executives in publicly quoted companies as well as press commentators, government officials and academics.

Cloud banding and winds in intense European cyclones: results from the DIAMET project

The DIAMET (DIAbatic influences on Mesoscale structures in ExTratropical storms) project aims to improve forecasts of high-impact weather in extratropical cyclones through field measurements, high-resolution numerical modeling, and improved design of ensemble forecasting and data assimilation systems. This article introduces DIAMET and presents some of the first results. Four field campaigns were conducted by the project, one of which, in late 2011, coincided with an exceptionally stormy period marked by an unusually strong, zonal North Atlantic jet stream and a succession of severe windstorms in northwest Europe. As a result, December 2011 had the highest monthly North Atlantic Oscillation index (2.52) of any December in the last 60 years. Detailed observations of several of these storms were gathered using the UK’s BAe146 research aircraft and extensive ground-based measurements. As an example of the results obtained during the campaign, observations are presented of cyclone Friedhelm on 8 December 2011, when surface winds with gusts exceeding 30 m s-1 crossed central Scotland, leading to widespread disruption to transportation and electricity supply. Friedhelm deepened 44 hPa in 24 hours and developed a pronounced bent-back front wrapping around the storm center. The strongest winds at 850 hPa and the surface occurred in the southern quadrant of the storm, and detailed measurements showed these to be most intense in clear air between bands of showers. High-resolution ensemble forecasts from the Met Office showed similar features, with the strongest winds aligned in linear swaths between the bands, suggesting that there is potential for improved skill in forecasts of damaging winds.

The impacts of climate change across the globe: a multi-sectoral assessment

The overall global-scale consequences of climate change are dependent on the distribution of impacts across regions, and there are multiple dimensions to these impacts.This paper presents a global assessment of the potential impacts of climate change across several sectors, using a harmonised set of impacts models forced by the same climate and socio-economic scenarios. Indicators of impact cover the water resources, river and coastal flooding, agriculture, natural environment and built environment sectors. Impacts are assessed under four SRES socio-economic and emissions scenarios, and the effects of uncertainty in the projected pattern of climate change are incorporated by constructing climate scenarios from 21 global climate models. There is considerable uncertainty in projected regional impacts across the climate model scenarios, and coherent assessments of impacts across sectors and regions therefore must be based on each model pattern separately; using ensemble means, for example, reduces variability between sectors and indicators. An example narrative assessment is presented in the paper. Under this narrative approximately 1 billion people would be exposed to increased water resources stress, around 450 million people exposed to increased river flooding, and 1.3 million extra people would be flooded in coastal floods each year. Crop productivity would fall in most regions, and residential energy demands would be reduced in most regions because reduced heating demands would offset higher cooling demands. Most of the global impacts on water stress and flooding would be in Asia, but the proportional impacts in the Middle East North Africa region would be larger. By 2050 there are emerging differences in impact between different emissions and socio-economic scenarios even though the changes in temperature and sea level are similar, and these differences are greater in 2080. However, for all the indicators, the range in projected impacts between different climate models is considerably greater than the range between emissions and socio-economic scenarios.

Design of delay-tolerant space–time codes with limited feedback

In cooperative communication networks, owing to the nodes' arbitrary geographical locations and individual oscillators, the system is fundamentally asynchronous. Such a timing mismatch may cause rank deficiency of the conventional space-time codes and, thus, performance degradation. One efficient way to overcome such an issue is the delay-tolerant space-time codes (DT-STCs). The existing DT-STCs are designed assuming that the transmitter has no knowledge about the channels. In this paper, we show how the performance of DT-STCs can be improved by utilizing some feedback information. A general framework for designing DT-STC with limited feedback is first proposed, allowing for flexible system parameters such as the number of transmit/receive antennas, modulated symbols, and the length of codewords. Then, a new design method is proposed by combining Lloyd's algorithm and the stochastic gradient-descent algorithm to obtain optimal codebook of STCs, particularly for systems with linear minimum-mean-square-error receiver. Finally, simulation results confirm the performance of the newly designed DT-STCs with limited feedback.

Atypical processing of voice sounds in infants at risk for Autism Spectrum Disorder

Adults diagnosed with autism spectrum disorder (ASD) show a reduced sensitivity (degree of selective response) to social stimuli such as human voices. In order to determine whether this reduced sensitivity is a consequence of years of poor social interaction and communication or is present prior to significant experience, we used functional MRI to examine cortical sensitivity to auditory stimuli in infants at high familial risk for later emerging ASD (HR group, N = 15), and compared this to infants with no family history of ASD (LR group, N = 18). The infants (aged between 4 and 7 months) were presented with voice and environmental sounds while asleep in the scanner and their behaviour was also examined in the context of observed parent-infant interaction. Whereas LR infants showed early specialisation for human voice processing in right temporal and medial frontal regions, the HR infants did not. Similarly, LR infants showed stronger sensitivity than HR infants to sad vocalisations in the right fusiform gyrus and left hippocampus. Also, in the HR group only, there was an association between each infant's degree of engagement during social interaction and the degree of voice sensitivity in key cortical regions. These results suggest that at least some infants at high-risk for ASD have atypical neural responses to human voice with and without emotional valence. Further exploration of the relationship between behaviour during social interaction and voice processing may help better understand the mechanisms that lead to different outcomes in at risk populations.

Climate change projections using the IPSL-CM5 Earth System Model: from CMIP3 to CMIP5

We present the global general circulation model IPSL-CM5 developed to study the long-term response of the climate system to natural and anthropogenic forcings as part of the 5th Phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). This model includes an interactive carbon cycle, a representation of tropospheric and stratospheric chemistry, and a comprehensive representation of aerosols. As it represents the principal dynamical, physical, and bio-geochemical processes relevant to the climate system, it may be referred to as an Earth System Model. However, the IPSL-CM5 model may be used in a multitude of configurations associated with different boundary conditions and with a range of complexities in terms of processes and interactions. This paper presents an overview of the different model components and explains how they were coupled and used to simulate historical climate changes over the past 150 years and different scenarios of future climate change. A single version of the IPSL-CM5 model (IPSL-CM5A-LR) was used to provide climate projections associated with different socio-economic scenarios, including the different Representative Concentration Pathways considered by CMIP5 and several scenarios from the Special Report on Emission Scenarios considered by CMIP3. Results suggest that the magnitude of global warming projections primarily depends on the socio-economic scenario considered, that there is potential for an aggressive mitigation policy to limit global warming to about two degrees, and that the behavior of some components of the climate system such as the Arctic sea ice and the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation may change drastically by the end of the twenty-first century in the case of a no climate policy scenario. Although the magnitude of regional temperature and precipitation changes depends fairly linearly on the magnitude of the projected global warming (and thus on the scenario considered), the geographical pattern of these changes is strikingly similar for the different scenarios. The representation of atmospheric physical processes in the model is shown to strongly influence the simulated climate variability and both the magnitude and pattern of the projected climate changes.

Mid-holocene and last glacial maximum climate simulations with the IPSL model-part I: comparing IPSLCM5A to IPSLCM4

The climates of the mid-Holocene (MH), 6,000 years ago, and of the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), 21,000 years ago, have extensively been simulated, in particular in the framework of the Palaeoclimate Modelling Intercomparion Project. These periods are well documented by paleo-records, which can be used for evaluating model results for climates different from the present one. Here, we present new simulations of the MH and the LGM climates obtained with the IPSL_CM5A model and compare them to our previous results obtained with the IPSL_CM4 model. Compared to IPSL_CM4, IPSL_CM5A includes two new features: the interactive representation of the plant phenology and marine biogeochemistry. But one of the most important differences between these models is the latitudinal resolution and vertical domain of their atmospheric component, which have been improved in IPSL_CM5A and results in a better representation of the mid-latitude jet-streams. The Asian monsoon’s representation is also substantially improved. The global average mean annual temperature simulated for the pre-industrial (PI) period is colder in IPSL_CM5A than in IPSL_CM4 but their climate sensitivity to a CO2 doubling is similar. Here we show that these differences in the simulated PI climate have an impact on the simulated MH and LGM climatic anomalies. The larger cooling response to LGM boundary conditions in IPSL_CM5A appears to be mainly due to differences between the PMIP3 and PMIP2 boundary conditions, as shown by a short wave radiative forcing/feedback analysis based on a simplified perturbation method. It is found that the sensitivity computed from the LGM climate is lower than that computed from 2 × CO2 simulations, confirming previous studies based on different models. For the MH, the Asian monsoon, stronger in the IPSL_CM5A PI simulation, is also more sensitive to the insolation changes. The African monsoon is also further amplified in IPSL_CM5A due to the impact of the interactive phenology. Finally the changes in variability for both models and for MH and LGM are presented taking the example of the El-Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which is very different in the PI simulations. ENSO variability is damped in both model versions at the MH, whereas inconsistent responses are found between the two versions for the LGM. Part 2 of this paper examines whether these differences between IPSL_CM4 and IPSL_CM5A can be distinguished when comparing those results to palaeo-climatic reconstructions and investigates new approaches for model-data comparisons made possible by the inclusion of new components in IPSL_CM5A.

Moho map of South America from receiver functions and surface waves

We estimate crustal structure and thickness of South America north of roughly 40 degrees S. To this end, we analyzed receiver functions from 20 relatively new temporary broadband seismic stations deployed across eastern Brazil. In the analysis we include teleseismic and some regional events, particularly for stations that recorded few suitable earthquakes. We first estimate crustal thickness and average Poisson`s ratio using two different stacking methods. We then combine the new crustal constraints with results from previous receiver function studies. To interpolate the crustal thickness between the station locations, we jointly invert these Moho point constraints, Rayleigh wave group velocities, and regional S and Rayleigh waveforms for a continuous map of Moho depth. The new tomographic Moho map suggests that Moho depth and Moho relief vary slightly with age within the Precambrian crust. Whether or not a positive correlation between crustal thickness and geologic age is derived from the pre-interpolation point constraints depends strongly on the selected subset of receiver functions. This implies that using only pre-interpolation point constraints (receiver functions) inadequately samples the spatial variation in geologic age. The new Moho map also reveals an anomalously deep Moho beneath the oldest core of the Amazonian Craton.

Analysis of peptides in prohormone convertase 1/3 null mouse brain using quantitative peptidomics

P>Neuropeptides are produced from larger precursors by limited proteolysis, first by endopeptidases and then by carboxypeptidases. Major endopeptidases required for these cleavages include prohormone convertase (PC) 1/3 and PC2. In this study, quantitative peptidomics analysis was used to characterize the specific role PC1/3 plays in this process. Peptides isolated from hypothalamus, amygdala, and striatum of PC1/3 null mice were compared with those from heterozygous and wild-type mice. Extracts were labeled with stable isotopic tags and fractionated by HPLC, after which relative peptide levels were determined using tandem mass spectrometry. In total, 92 peptides were found, of which 35 were known neuropeptides or related peptides derived from 15 distinct secretory pathway proteins: 7B2, chromogranin A and B, cocaine- and amphetamine-regulated transcript, procholecystokinin, proenkephalin, promelanin concentrating hormone, proneurotensin, propituitary adenylate cyclase-activating peptide, proSAAS, prosomatosatin, provasoactive intestinal peptide, provasopressin, secretogranin III, and VGF. Among the peptides derived from these proteins, similar to 1/3 were decreased in the PC1/3 null mice relative to wild-type mice, similar to 1/3 showed no change, and similar to 1/3 increased in PC1/3 null. Cleavage sites were analyzed in peptides that showed no change or that decreased in PC1/3 mice, and these results were compared with peptides that showed no change or decreased in previous peptidomic studies with PC2 null mice. Analysis of these sites showed that while PC1/3 and PC2 have overlapping substrate preferences, there are particular cleavage site residues that distinguish peptides preferred by each PC.

CCP1/Nna1 functions in protein turnover in mouse brain: Implications for cell death in Purkinje cell degeneration mice

Purkinje cell degeneration (pcd) mice have a mutation within the gene encoding cytosolic carboxypeptidase 1 (CCP1/Nna1), which has homology to metallocarboxypeptidases. To assess the function of CCP1/Nna1, quantitative proteomics and peptidomics approaches were used to compare proteins and peptides in mutant and wild-type mice. Hundreds of peptides derived from cytosolic and mitochondrial proteins are greatly elevated in pcd mouse hypothalamus, amygdala, cortex, prefrontal cortex, and striatum. However, the major proteins detected on 2-D gel electrophoresis were present in mutant and wild-type mouse cortex and hypothalamus at comparable levels, and proteasome activity is normal in these brain regions of pcd mice, suggesting that the increase in cellular peptide levels in the pcd mice is due to reduced degradation of the peptides downstream of the proteasome. Both nondegenerating and degenerating regions of pcd mouse brain, but not wild-type mouse brain, show elevated autophagy, which can be triggered by a decrease in amino acid levels. Taken together with previous studies on CCP1/Nna1, these data suggest that CCP1/Nna1 plays a role in protein turnover by cleaving proteasome-generated peptides into amino acids and that decreased peptide turnover in the pcd mice leads to cell death.-Berezniuk, I., Sironi, J., Callaway, M. B., Castro, L. M., Hirata, I. Y., Ferro, E. S., Fricker, L. D. CCP1/Nna1 functions in protein turnover in mouse brain: Implications for cell death in Purkinje cell degeneration mice. FASEB J. 24, 1813-1823 (2010). www.fasebj.org

Hemopressins and other hemoglobin-derived peptides in mouse brain: comparison between brain, blood, and heart peptidome and regulation in Cpefat/fat mice

P>Many hemoglobin-derived peptides are present in mouse brain, and several of these have bioactive properties including the hemopressins, a related series of peptides that bind to cannabinoid CB1 receptors. Although hemoglobin is a major component of red blood cells, it is also present in neurons and glia. To examine whether the hemoglobin-derived peptides in brain are similar to those present in blood and heart, we used a peptidomics approach involving mass spectrometry. Many hemoglobin-derived peptides are found only in brain and not in blood, whereas all hemoglobin-derived peptides found in heart were also seen in blood. Thus, it is likely that the majority of the hemoglobin-derived peptides detected in brain are produced from brain hemoglobin and not erythrocytes. We also examined if the hemopressins and other major hemoglobin-derived peptides were regulated in the Cpefat/fat mouse; previously these mice were reported to have elevated levels of several hemoglobin-derived peptides. Many, but not all of the hemoglobin-derived peptides were elevated in several brain regions of the Cpefat/fat mouse. Taken together, these findings suggest that the post-translational processing of alpha and beta hemoglobin into the hemopressins, as well as other peptides, is up-regulated in some but not all Cpefat/fat mouse brain regions.

Novel endogenous peptide agonists of cannabinoid receptors

Hemopressin (Hp), a 9-residue alpha-hemoglobin-derived peptide, was previously reported to function as a CB(1) cannabinoid receptor antagonist (1). In this study, we report that mass spectrometry (MS) data from peptidomics analyses of mouse brain extracts identified N-terminally extended forms of Hp containing either three (RVD-Hp alpha) or two (VD-Hp alpha) additional amino acids, as well as a beta-hemoglobinderived peptide with sequence similarity to that of hemopressin (VD-Hp beta). Characterization of the alpha-hemoglobin-derived peptides using binding and functional assays shows that in contrast to Hp, which functions as a CB(1) cannabinoid receptor antagonist, both RVD-Hp alpha and VD-Hp alpha function as agonists. Studies examining the increase in the phosphorylation of ERK1/2 levels or release of intracellular Ca(2+) indicate that these peptides activate a signal transduction pathway distinct from that activated by the endo-cannabinoid, 2-arachidonoylglycerol, or the classic CB(1) agonist, Hu-210. This finding suggests an additional mode of regulation of endogenous cannabinoid receptor activity. Taken together, these results suggest that the CB(1) receptor is involved in the integration of signals from both lipid-and peptide-derived signaling molecules.-Gomes, I., Grushko, J. S., Golebiewska, U., Hoogendoorn, S., Gupta, A., Heimann, A. S., Ferro, E. S., Scarlata, S., Fricker, L. D., Devi, L. A. Novel endogenous peptide agonists of cannabinoid receptors. FASEB J. 23, 3020-3029 (2009). www.fasebj.org