Quantifying uncertainty in critical loads: (A) literature review

Critical loads are the basis for policies controlling emissions of acidic substances in Europe. The implementation of these policies involves large expenditures, and it is reasonable for policymakers to ask what degree of certainty can be attached to the underlying critical load and exceedance estimates. This paper is a literature review of studies which attempt to estimate the uncertainty attached to critical loads. Critical load models and uncertainty analysis are briefly outlined. Most studies have used Monte Carlo analysis of some form to investigate the propagation of uncertainties in the definition of the input parameters through to uncertainties in critical loads. Though the input parameters are often poorly known, the critical load uncertainties are typically surprisingly small because of a "compensation of errors" mechanism. These results depend on the quality of the uncertainty estimates of the input parameters, and a "pedigree" classification for these is proposed. Sensitivity analysis shows that some input parameters are more important in influencing critical load uncertainty than others, but there have not been enough studies to form a general picture. Methods used for dealing with spatial variation are briefly discussed. Application of alternative models to the same site or modifications of existing models can lead to widely differing critical loads, indicating that research into the underlying science needs to continue.

Associations between elevated atmospheric temperature and human mortality: a critical review of the literature

The effects of the anomalously warm European summer of 2003 highlighted the importance of understanding the relationship between elevated atmospheric temperature and human mortality. This review is an extension of the brief evidence examining this relationship provided in the IPCC’s Assessment Reports. A comprehensive and critical review of the literature is presented, which highlights avenues for further research, and the respective merits and limitations of the methods used to analyse the relationships. In contrast to previous reviews that concentrate on the epidemiological evidence, this review acknowledges the inter-disciplinary nature of the topic and examines the evidence presented in epidemiological, environmental health, and climatological journals. As such, present temperature–mortality relationships are reviewed, followed by a discussion of how these are likely to change under climate change scenarios. The importance of uncertainty, and methods to include it in future work, are also considered.

Libraries and literature in Rome

A chapter of 6,000 words on books, literary culture, and public and private libraries in the ancient city of Rome

Searching efficiency and the functional response of a pause-travel forager

1. The feeding rates of many predators and parasitoids exhibit type II functional responses, with a decelerating rate of increase to reach an asymptotic value as the density of their prey or hosts increases. Holling's disc equation describes such relationships and predicts that the asymptotic feeding rate at high prey densities is set by handling time, while the rate at which feeding rate increases with increased prey density is determined by searching efficiency. Searching efficiency and handling time are also parameters in other models which describe the functional response. Models which incorporate functional responses in order to make predictions of the effects of food shortage thus rely upon a clear understanding and accurate quantification of searching efficiency and handling time. 2. Blackbird Turdus merula exhibit a type II functional response and use pause-travel foraging, a foraging technique in which animals search for prey while stationary and then move to capture prey. Pause-travel foraging allows accurate direct measurement of feeding rate and both searching efficiency and handling time. We use Blackbirds as a model species to: (i) compare observed measures of both searching efficiency and handling time with those estimated by statistically fitting the disc equation to the observed functional response; and (ii) investigate alternative measures of searching efficiency derived by the established method where search area is assumed to be circular and a new method that we propose where it is not. 3. We find that the disc equation can adequately explain the functional response of blackbirds feeding on artificial prey. However, this depends critically upon how searching efficiency is measured. Two variations on the previous method of measuring search area (a component of searching efficiency) overestimated searching efficiency, and hence predicted feeding rates higher than those observed. Two variations of our alternative approach produced lower estimates of searching efficiency, closer to that estimated by fitting the disc equation, and hence more accurately predicted feeding rate. Our study shows the limitations of the previous method of measuring searching efficiency, and describes a new method for measuring searching efficiency more accurately.