Impacto do estilo de vida no controle do peso durante a gestação e pós-parto

O objetivo desta tese é avaliar o impacto do estilo de vida materno no ganho de peso durante a gestação e na sua evolução durante o pós-parto. Inicialmente, foi realizada uma revisão da literatura sobre os indicadores utilizados para computar as mudanças de peso ocorridas durante a gestação e o pós-parto (artigo I). Posteriormente, utilizou-se o modelo de regressão logística para avaliar a associação entre a abstinência ao fumo durante o pré-natal e o ganho de peso gestacional (GPG) excessivo, segundo as recomendações do Institute of Medicine (IOM), em 1.249 mulheres que deram à luz a recém-nascidos vivos a termo em 1984/85 em Estocolmo, Suécia (artigo II). Em seguida, foi utilizado o modelo de regressão linear múltipla para avaliar o efeito do GPG excessivo no índice de massa corporal (IMC) materno 15 anos após o parto. A população elegível para análise foi constituída de 483 mulheres suecas, que foram acompanhadas desde o nascimento da criança índice em 1984/85 até 1999/2000 (artigo III). Por último, uma revisão sistemática com a utilização de metanálise foi realizada para apreciar o efeito da dieta, exercício ou ambos na perda de peso no pós-parto (artigo IV). A diversidade de indicadores utilizada para computar o GPG e a retenção de peso no pós-parto dificulta a interpretação e comparação dos resultados de pesquisas sobre o tema. A baixa qualidade dos registros obstétricos e a escolha inadequada do indicador são consideradas as possíveis causas da não associação entre o ganho de peso materno e os desfechos gestacionais encontrada em alguns estudos (artigo I). Ex-fumantes apresentam 1,8 vezes mais chance de GPG excessivo em relação às mulheres não fumantes, mesmo após o ajuste pelas variáveis de confusão, como o consumo de álcool, atividade física, entre outras (artigo II). Mulheres que tiveram GPG excessivo apresentaram maior retenção de peso 15 anos após parto (10,0 kg) do que as mulheres que ganharam peso conforme os limites recomendados pelo IOM (6,7 kg). Mesmo após o controle pelas variáveis de confusão, o GPG excessivo provocou um aumento significativo de 0,72 kg/m2 no IMC materno (artigo III). Mulheres aconselhadas a praticarem exercícios aeróbicos durante o pós-parto não perderam, significativamente, mais peso que as mulheres alocadas no grupo controle (diferença de média ponderada (DMP): 0,00; IC 95%: -8,63/ 8,63). Mulheres alocadas no grupo dieta (DMP: -1,70; IC 95%: -2,08/ -1,32) ou dieta e exercício (DMP: -2,89; IC 95%: -4,83/ -0,95) perderam, significativamente, mais peso que as mulheres alocadas no grupo controle. Nenhuma das estratégias de intervenção para perda de peso no pós-parto (exercício; dieta; dieta e exercício) provocou efeitos adversos à saúde materno-infantil (artigo IV). Os achados apontam para a importância da identificação precoce de mulheres sob-risco GPG excessivo. Os profissionais de saúde devem fornecer aconselhamento adequado durante o pré-natal para o controle do GPG e motivar as mulheres a perderem o peso retido durante o pós-parto. Assinala-se também que os profissionais de saúde devem recomendar programas de modificação do estilo de vida relacionados à dieta combinada ao exercício físico para perda de peso durante o pós-parto e, consequentemente, para a prevenção da obesidade associada ao ciclo reprodutivo.

Bycatch in marine fisheries

A review of the significant contributions in the peer-reviewed literature indicates that the discarding of marine fish known as bycatch remains one of the most significant problem facing fisheries managers. Bycatch has negative affects on marine biodiversity, is ripe with ethical and moral issues surrounding the waste of life from increased juvenile fish mortality, hinders commercial profitability and recreational satisfaction, increases management costs, and results in socio-cultural problems and conflicts. While appearing to have a simple conservation engineering solution, reducing or eliminating bycatch in marine fishing operations given the presently existing regulated open access management environment is demonstrated to actually be so complex that its effects can appear to be counter-intuitive. An ecosystem simulation model that explicitly incorporates the human and biological dimensions is used to evaluate proposed bycatch reduction regulations for two fishing fleets exploiting three out of seven species of fish, each with ten cohorts, in two resource areas. One of the fishing fleets is divided into two components representing commercial fishermen and recreational anglers. The seven fish species represent predator, prey, and competitor behaviors and one stock is treated as an endangered species. The results displayed in a series of figures demonstrate the potential unintended effects of simplistic management approaches and the need for a holistic and comprehensive approach to bycatch management. That is, an ecosystem model that explicitly incorporates socio-cultural and biophysical attributes into a common framework allows the magnitude and direction of behavioral responses to be predicted based on changes in governance or biophysical constraints to determine if management goals and objectives have been obtained through the use of quantitative metrics.

An environmentally based growth model that uses finite difference calculus with maximum likelihood method: its application to the brackish water bivalve Corbicula japonica in Lake Abashiri, Japan

We present a growth analysis model that combines large amounts of environmental data with limited amounts of biological data and apply it to Corbicula japonica. The model uses the maximum-likelihood method with the Akaike information criterion, which provides an objective criterion for model selection. An adequate distribution for describing a single cohort is selected from available probability density functions, which are expressed by location and scale parameters. Daily relative increase rates of the location parameter are expressed by a multivariate logistic function with environmental factors for each day and categorical variables indicating animal ages as independent variables. Daily relative increase rates of the scale parameter are expressed by an equation describing the relationship with the daily relative increase rate of the location parameter. Corbicula japonica grows to a modal shell length of 0.7 mm during the first year in Lake Abashiri. Compared with the attain-able maximum size of about 30 mm, the growth of juveniles is extremely slow because their growth is less susceptible to environmental factors until the second winter. The extremely slow growth in Lake Abashiri could be a geographical genetic variation within C. japonica.

Life history and population dynamics of the finetooth shark (Carcharhinus isodon) in the northeastern Gulf of Mexico

The life history and population dynamics of the finetooth shark (Carcharhinus isodon) in the north-eastern Gulf of Mexico were studied by determining age, growth, size-at-maturity, natural mortality, productivity, and elasticity of vital rates of the population. The von Bertalanffy growth model was estimated as Lt=1559 mm TL (1–e–0.24 (t+2.07)) for females and Lt = 1337 mm TL (1–e–0.41 (t+1.39)) for males. For comparison, the Fabens growth equation was also fitted separately to observed size-at-age data, and the fits to the data were found to be similar. The oldest aged specimens were 8.0 and 8.1 yr, and theoretical longevity estimates were 14.4 and 8.5 yr for females and males, respectively. Median length at maturity was 1187 and 1230 mm TL, equivalent to 3.9 and 4.3 yr for males and females, respectively. Two scenarios, based on the results of the two equations used to describe growth, were considered for population modeling and the results were similar. Annual rates of survivorship estimated through five methods ranged from 0.850/yr to 0.607/yr for scenario 1 and from 0.840/yr to 0.590/yr for scenario 2. Productivities were 0.041/yr for scenario 1 and 0.038/yr for scenario 2 when the population level that produces maximum sustain-able yield is assumed to occur at an instantaneous total mortality rate (Z) equaling 1.5 M, and were 0.071/yr and 0.067/yr, when Z=2 M for scenario 1 and 2, respectively. Mean generation time was 6.96 yr and 6.34 yr for scenarios 1 and 2, respectively. Elasticities calculated through simulation of Leslie matrices averaged 12.6% (12.1% for scenario 2) for fertility, 47.7% (46.2% for scenario 2) for juvenile survival, and 39.7% (41.6% for scenario 2) for adult survival. In all, the finetooth shark exhibits life-history and population characteristics intermediate to those of sharks in the small coastal complex and those from some large coastal species, such as the blacktip shark (Carcharhinus limbatus).

The use of object oriented modelling and simulation tools in constraint satisfaction for embodiment design

The software package Dymola, which implements the new, vendor-independent standard modelling language Modelica, exemplifies the emerging generation of object-oriented modelling and simulation tools. This paper shows how, in addition to its simulation capabilities, it may be used as an embodiment design tool, to size automatically a design assembled from a library of generic parametric components. The example used is a miniature model aircraft diesel engine. To this end, the component classes contain extra algebraic equations calculating the overload factor (or its reciprocal, the safety factor) for all the different modes of failure, such as buckling or tensile yield. Thus the simulation results contain the maximum overload or minimum safety factor for each failure mode along with the critical instant and the device state at which it occurs. The Dymola "Initial Conditions Calculation" function, controlled by a simple software script, may then be used to perform automatic component sizing. Each component is minimised in mass, subject to a chosen safety factor against failure, over a given operating cycle. Whilst the example is in the realm of mechanical design, it must be emphasised that the approach is equally applicable to the electrical or mechatronic domains, indeed to any design problem requiring numerical constraint satisfaction.

Redesigning the design process through interactive simulation: A case study of life-cycle engineering in jet engine conceptual design

Many aerospace companies are currently making the transition to providing fully-integrated product-service offerings in which their products are designed from the outset with life-cycle considerations in mind. Based on a case study at Rolls-Royce, Civil Aerospace, this paper demonstrates how an interactive approach to process simulation can be used to support the redesign of existing design processes in order to incorporate life-cycle engineering (LCE) considerations. The case study provides insights into the problems of redesigning the conceptual stages of a complex, concurrent engineering design process and the practical value of process simulation as a tool to support the specification of process changes in the context of engineering design. The paper also illustrates how development of a simulation model can provide significant benefit to companies through the understanding of process behaviour that is gained through validating the behaviour of the model using different design and iteration scenarios. Keywords: jet engine design; life-cycle engineering; LCE; process change; design process simulation; applied signposting model; ASM. Copyright © 2011 Inderscience Enterprises Ltd.

Towards the development of an integrated design framework using the Blackboard model

Current research into the process of engineering design is extending the use of computers towards the acquisition, representation and application of design process knowledge in addition to the existing storage and manipulation of product-based models of design objects. This is a difficult task because the design of mechanical systems is a complex, often unpredictable process involving ill-structured problem solving skills and large amounts of knowledge, some which may be of an incomplete and subjective nature. Design problems require the integration of a variety of modes of working such as numerical, graphical, algorithmic or heuristic and demand products through synthesis, analysis and evaluation activities.

This report presents the results of a feasibility study into the blackboard approach and discusses the development of an initial prototype system that will enable an alphanumeric design dialogue between a designer and an expert to be analysed in a formal way, thus providing real-life protocol data on which to base the blackboard message structures.

Product life trade-offs: what if products fail early?

Increasing product life allows the embodied emissions in products to be spread across a longer period but can mean that opportunities to improve use-phase efficiency are foregone. In this paper, a model that evaluates this trade-off is presented and used to estimate the optimal product life for a range of metal-intensive products. Two strategies that have potential to save emissions are explored: (1) adding extra embodied emissions to make products more sturdy, increasing product life, and (2) increasing frequency of use, causing early product failure to take advantage of improvements in use-phase efficiency. These strategies are evaluated for two specific case studies (long-life washing machines and more frequent use of vehicles through car clubs) and for a range of embodied and use-phase intensive products under different use-phase improvement rate assumptions. Particular emphasis is placed on the fact that products often fail neither at their design life nor at their optimal life. Policy recommendations are then made regarding the targeting of these strategies according to product characteristics and the timing of typical product failure relative to optimal product life.

Temperature-Dependent Growth and Life Cycle of Nemoura sichuanensis (Plecoptera: Nemouridae) in a Chinese Mountain Stream

Plecoptera constitute a numerically and ecologically significant component in mountain streams all over the world, but little is known of their life cycles in Asia. The life cycle of Nemoura sichuanensis and its relationship to water temperature was investigated during a 4-year study in a headwater stream (known as the Jiuchong torrent) of the Xiangxi River in Central China. Size structure histograms suggest that the life cycle was univoltine, and the relationships between the growth of Nemoura sichuanensis, physiological time, and effective accumulated water temperature were described using logistic regressions. The growth pattern was generally similar within year classes but growth rates did vary between year-classes. Our field data suggest a critical thermal threshold for emergence in Nemoura sichuanensis, that was close to 9 degrees C. The total number of physiological days required for completing larval development was 250 days. The effective accumulated water temperature was 2500 degree-days in the field. Development during the life cycle increased somewhat linearly with the physiological time and the effective accumulated water temperature, but some non-linear relationships were best developed by logistic equations.

An architecture design with data model for product recovery management systems

Due to concerns about environmental protection and resource utilization, product lifecycle management for end-of-life (EOL) has received increasing attention in many industrial sectors including manufacturing, maintenance/repair, and recycling/refurbishing of the product. To support these functions, crucial issues are studied to realize a product recovery management system (PRMS), including: (1) an architecture design for EOL services, such as remanufacturing and recycling; (2) a product data model required for EOL activity based on international standards; and (3) an infrastructure for information acquisition and mapping to product lifecycle information. The presented works are illustrated via a realistic scenario. © 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Logistic Map耦合格子模型模拟环带

本论文采用Logistic Map耦合格子模型对高聚物中特有的环带球晶进行了模拟，所得到的模拟结果与实验结果吻合较好。同时，研究结果能够对实验制备环带球晶样品提供可靠的理论指导。 首先，我们对Logistic Map耦合格子模型及模型中的两个模拟参量μ和ε进行分析，同时结合实验中各种实验条件对聚合物结晶行为的影响，认为Logistic Map的动力学特征与聚合物结晶行为非常相似，并且参量μ与实验中的结晶温度相关，即随温度的升高而减小，而参量ε与实验中影响扩散的因素有关，即随温度的升高而增大、随分子量的增大而减小，并且随样品厚度的增大而增大。我们对模型的整个参数空间进行计算，得到了可以形成环带球晶形貌的参数范围，通过进一步研究发现环带图案的带宽随参量μ的增大而变窄，随参量ε的增大而变宽。上述研究结果与实验中带宽随实验条件的变化规律是一致的。 在得到环带图案的基础上，我们又进一步计算得到了靶状和螺旋状形貌的参量μ和ε的具体取值范围。通过改变μ和ε的参数取值，模拟了环带球晶形貌由靶状过渡到螺旋状的过程，即靶状图案的环带由外层向内层逐渐断裂成较短的条带结构，所有的条带结构呈现出以空间某处为中心团聚在一起的形貌；随后，这种“团聚”的形貌逐渐消失了，空间中小的条带结构的排列呈无序状态。随着参数的进一步变化，短的条带结构变成较长的带状结构，并且这些带状结构的边缘逐渐发生卷曲，最终形成了螺旋状图案。我们还考察了系统初值和耦合方式对上述图案的影响，结果发现，形成环带球晶的参数范围对系统初值没有明显的依赖性，然而靶状和螺旋状图案的分布受初值的影响较大。此外，发现只有采用交替耦合、并考虑长程耦合作用的Logistic Map耦合格子模型才可以得到环带球晶图案。 为了更好地与实验结果进行对比，我们利用Logistic Map耦合格子模型对二维空间中的几种受限体系进行了模拟。（一）对温度梯度场中的环带球晶进行模拟，发现环带球晶在低温处较易成核，向高温处生长，并且，高温处环带的带宽比低温处宽。（二）对格子宽度受限情况进行了模拟，发现随着受限方向的宽度越来越窄，球晶尺寸逐渐变小，相邻两个环带球晶碰撞产生的界线变短，三个相邻环带球晶所形成的界线的交汇点减少。（三）研究了受限边界上的成核作用对狭长格子中环带球晶的影响，结果发现，随着受限边界上成核点密度的不断增加，其形貌转变分为三个不同阶段：①当成核密度稍有增大时，环带球晶数量增加，直径变小；②继续增大边界成核密度，使得大量晶层从受限边界向格子内生长，导致环带球晶的数量减少，直径也减小；③当成核点增加到一定程度时，整个空间中只有极少数由格子内部成核生长且直径非常小的环带球晶，而占主导地位的是由成核点垂直于受限边界生长出的穿透晶层。这些模拟结果均与实验结果相符合。 我们将Logistic Map耦合映象格子模型发展到三维空间格子中，得到了与环带球晶形貌一致的图案，并且其带宽随模拟参量μ的增大而变窄，随ε的增大而变宽。这一规律性结果与二维正方格子的模拟结果是一致的。这一部分的研究结果还表明，边界条件和格子尺寸对模拟结果有显著的影响，周期性边界条件导致在小体积立方格子中只能得到靶状图案；而当格子尺寸很大时，可以得到螺旋状环带球晶的图案。最后，通过调节垂直于薄膜平面方向上的格子数来研究薄膜厚度对环带图案带宽的影响，发现环带的带宽随厚度的增加而变宽，这与实验中环带球晶的带宽随样品厚度的增加而变大的结论是一致的。

Microarray Analyses of Gene Expression during the Tetrahymena thermophila Life Cycle

Background: The model eukaryote, Tetrahymena thermophila, is the first ciliated protozoan whose genome has been sequenced, enabling genome-wide analysis of gene expression. Methodology/Principal Findings: A genome-wide microarray platform containing the predicted coding sequences (putative genes) for T. thermophila is described, validated and used to study gene expression during the three major stages of the organism's life cycle: growth, starvation and conjugation. Conclusions/Significance: Of the,27,000 predicted open reading frames, transcripts homologous to only,5900 are not detectable in any of these life cycle stages, indicating that this single-celled organism does indeed contain a large number of functional genes. Transcripts from over 5000 predicted genes are expressed at levels >5x corrected background and 95 genes are expressed at >250x corrected background in all stages. Transcripts homologous to 91 predicted genes are specifically expressed and 155 more are highly up-regulated in growing cells, while 90 are specifically expressed and 616 are up-regulated during starvation. Strikingly, transcripts homologous to 1068 predicted genes are specifically expressed and 1753 are significantly up-regulated during conjugation. The patterns of gene expression during conjugation correlate well with the developmental stages of meiosis, nuclear differentiation and DNA elimination. The relationship between gene expression and chromosome fragmentation is analyzed. Genes encoding proteins known to interact or to function in complexes show similar expression patterns, indicating that co-ordinate expression with putative genes of known function can identify genes with related functions. New candidate genes associated with the RNAi-like process of DNA elimination and with meiosis are identified and the late stages of conjugation are shown to be characterized by specific expression of an unexpectedly large and diverse number of genes not involved in nuclear functions.

土地利用总体规划环境影响评价指标体系研究——以邛崃市土地利用总体规划为例

土地利用是人类根据土地质量特性来开发利用土地，创造财富，满足人类生产和生活的需要，同时改善环境，满足人类生存需要的过程。土地利用总体规划是对未来各类用地在空间上、时间上作出总体的协调的预先安排，不仅受到一定历史背景的制约，同时也受影响于当前的社会经济发展情况。但是，国内传统的土地利用总体规划往往从狭窄的技术经济观点出发，对远期的生态环境问题、社会问题缺少考虑，将新的用地尽量安排在最便捷、最经济的地方。 由于土地利用总体规划对环境影响具有长期性、复杂性、综合性、有时还有不可逆转性等特点，迫切需要在编制土地利用总体规划时对规划区与土地利用有关的环境影响进行科学研究，把环境保护纳入土地利用活动的计划、决策和规划实施中，促进土地资源持续、协调的利用。为更好地进行土地利用总体规划环境影响评价必须首先建立相应的评价指标体系，而目前国内关于该项研究的理论和实践的相关报道都较少。 本论文在综述国内外土地利用总体规划环境影响评价的理论与实践的基础上，在国内第一批开展了相关领域的案例研究，采用理论研究和案例分析相结合的研究方法对土地利用总体规划环境影响评价方法和指标体系进行了研究，对邛崃市土地利用总体规划进行了环境影响评价，其研究的主要内容和论点如下: (1)第一次根据FAO 确定的五大原则，引入了生态用地的概念并按照价值模型构建了以土地资源可持续利用为目标的县级土地利用总体规划环境影响评价的指标体系。以生产性、稳定性、保护性、经济活力、社会可接受性五个方面作为指标层来度量土地利用总体规划的环境影响，并选取了土地利用率、土地整理率、水面指数、生态用地面积比例、耕地转化率、建设用地产值指数、公众满意度等21 个元指标作为具体的评价指标。该指标体系强调了规划方案的公众参与，便于充分吸收公众的意见和建议；并且评价指标获取容易，实用性较强。 (2)在土地利用总体规划环境影响评价方法上进行了有益的探索和尝试，由于土地利用总体规划环境影响评价的主要对象是几个拟定的规划方案，所以采用综合评分法（包括特尔斐法和层次分析法）和公众参与相结合的评价方法。应用上述指标体系和评价方法对邛崃市土地利用总体规划的三个方案进行了评价筛选，高方案最终得分为92.049；中方案最终得分为91.028；而低方案最终得分为95.541，为最优方案。 （3）开展了对土地利用总体规划替代方案和公众参与机制的研究，对公众参与的方式、程序及主要内容从理论和实践两方面进行了有益的尝试，收到了良好的效果。 （4）对邛崃市土地利用总体规划进行了环境影响评价，根据邛崃市的具体情况，对规划实施后可能造成的环境正、负面影响进行了分析和预测，提出了预防或者减轻不良环境影响的对策和措施。 Land use is a process, which is to develop land according to its mass property. Bycreating the wealth and improving the environment, it can meet the need of production,life and human survival. Land use planning, as a planning form to guide land use, issubject to the historical background, and influenced by development of economic andsociety. The land use planning in the past, from narrow economic technology view,lacking of concerning ecologic environmentand social problem, arranged new land in the most convenient and economic place. Because of complexity, comprehensive and sometimes irreversible characteristicsof environmental impact caused by land use planning which has been implemented, it isneed to carry on scientific research on environmental impact related to land use as theland use planning is forming, to bring environmental protection within the plan, policymaking and implementing of land use activity, promoting the sustainment, harmonious use of land resource. This paper, taking the readjustment of land use planning in Qionglai as an example,assessed its environmental impact of land use planning. The main contents and results arepresented as follows: (1) On the basis of the five criterions of AFO, for the first time propose county classoverall planning of land uses SEA index by inducting ecological land use andestablishing the Value factor system, according to Productivity criterion，Stabilitycriterion，Sheltered criterion，Economic livingness criterion，Social acceptabilitycriterion，the environmental impact of land use system was assessed by using Valuemodel. Through identifying the factors of environmental impact of land use planning, thepaper established the factor system of SEA of land use planning. From the land usefactors, 21 factors was chosen to assess the environmental impact degree of land useplanning, such as, index of land use degree, the rate of land collating, index of watersurface, the rate of ecological use land, cultivated land conversion ratio, forest landconversion ratio, public satisfaction degree and so on. These indexes make a point thatpublic participation of plan project fully absorb public idea and propose and the index easily get, better utility. (2) Attempt useful assessment method system of SEA of land use planning. In viewof there are no or almost no inevitable contact among the factors of SEA of land useplanning，we use AHP （Analytic Hierarchy Process） as the main assess method . Thereare three plans are compared in this paper apply the foregoing index and assessmentmethod. The high plan finally score is 92.049，while the middle plan is 91.028. The lowplan score is 95.541，is the best one，as the selected plan. (3) Carry on the research of the alternative scheme of overall planing of land useand public participation，to the fashion ，procedure and object matter carry out helpfulattempt from theory to practice，the results is good. （4）Took place SEA of Qionglai County overall planing of land use，according to thecircumstance of Qionglai，we analyze and forecast the positive and negative affect afterthe plan implement，and put forward the countermeasure and means to prevent or abatebad environmental impact.

若尔盖湿地公路对两栖类的生态影响

本文考察了若尔盖高寒泥炭湿地公路对高原林蛙（Rana kukunoris）、倭蛙（Narorana pleskei）和岷山蟾蜍（Bufo minshanicus）的生态影响。分析了公路对两栖动物空间分布和栖息地利用的影响，并用IBM模型探讨其可能作用机制，考察了两栖动物公路死亡的季节差异及影响公路死亡空间分布的景观因素。最后通过对若尔盖高寒湿地两栖动物陆地核心栖息地的分析，为若尔盖路域栖息地的管理提供依据。 1. 对公路周边6个沼泽水凼群进行了调查，每个样地设置5条样线（距离公路10m、20m、50m、100m和150m）。调查表明，在繁殖季节(5月)，距离公路距离对高原林蛙和倭蛙的相对数量都有显著作用，其效应明显大于其他各项栖息地环境参数。公路导致高原林蛙和倭蛙在公路周边种群密度降低，其相对数量从距离公路100m处到公路边缘一直呈现逐渐降低的趋势。在繁殖季节，若尔盖高寒湿地的公路生态影响域大约在100-150m之间，这一距离远远大于森林栖息地中公路对两栖类的生态影响域（35-40 m）。 在繁殖后期（9月），对公路周边16个草地样点的样线调查表明，公路对周边高原林蛙和倭蛙密度分布并未造成显著影响。 2. 二次模型的拟合表明繁殖季节高原林蛙和倭蛙在公路周边的密度分布符合钟型曲线。前人对森林公路两侧两栖类分布的研究也显示了类似的规律。我们通过基于个体的模型，模拟在了公路边缘100单位距离内的栖息地空间，栖息地环境质量呈梯度变化，动物个体在其中通过随机运动寻找适宜的栖息地。拟合结果表明，动物个体仅仅依照简单的运动规则寻找适宜栖息地，这种活动就可以导致公路周边栖息地中的动物分布曲线出现3个局部峰。公路周边两栖动物的钟型分布曲线可能仅仅是个体寻找适宜栖息地过程中出现的临时性群体分布模式。 3. 在若尔盖高寒湿地，公路交通造成了大量两栖类死亡。但是公路两栖类动物死亡的季节分布很不均匀：5月、8月和9月死亡数量很高，而7月和10月死亡数量却很低。这种季节性差异和两栖类各个生活史阶段的迁移运动有密切的关系。利用景观参数的逻辑斯蒂回归模型显示，距离公路1000-2000m范围内的湿草地比例对三种两栖类公路死亡概率均有很强的贡献。湿草地这一栖息地类型分类中有大量的沼泽水体，是两栖类重要的繁殖点和取食点。两栖类公路死亡概率湿草地的关系从一个侧面表明，要维持一个区域较高的两栖类种群数量，需要1000-2000m半径范围内存在大面积的湿草地。 4. 高原林蛙和岷山蟾蜍不同性别和年龄个体分布点的水体距离存在显著差异。不同种类、年龄的两栖类分布点距离水体距离的差异可能是由于对水体的依赖性造成的。而相同种类、年龄段的个体中，高原林蛙雌性、岷山蟾蜍亚成体和雌性的体重与分布点距水体距离有显著负相关，这可能是因为体重更大的个体对水体的依赖性更弱。考虑到过大的陆地核心栖息地面积在实际保护工作中存在操作上的困难，因此我们认为可以以水体周边90%个体的分布区为低限确定3种两栖类的最小陆地核心栖息地。但是，在同样的水体距离-两栖类密度分布格局下，水体的面积和分形参数对最小陆地核心栖息地半径的确定有一定影响。 Ecological effects of alpine wetland road on Rana kukunoris, Narorana pleskei, Bufo minshanicus was studied in Zoige wetland. The effects of road on distribution of amphibians and its possible underline mechanism was discussed based on empirical data and computer simulation. Road killed amphibians was surveyed in different season and those landscape factor which could have impact on road killing distribution was analyses. Core terrestrial habitat of amphibians in Zoige wetland was discussed in the consideration of conservation management. 1. Six pool groups was investigated in breeding season (May) of R. kukunoris, N. pleskei. Five transects at distance of 10m, 20m, 50m, 100m and 150m from road edge was surveyed in each pool groups. There was a significant effects of distance from road edge on relative counts of R. kukunoris, N. pleskei, which is much important than effects of other environmental factors. Road caused the density of R. kukunoris, N. pleskei decreased from distance of 100m from road to 10m from road. Road ecological effect zone of alpine wetland for amphibians is about 100-150m. It is much wider than those of forest roads, which is about 35-40m. However, studies on 16 grassland near road showed no significant effect of road on amphibians after breeding season (Sep.). 2. Quadratic model fit indicated that the distribution of R. kukunoris and N. Pleskei followed a hump like curve. Previous studies on forest road showed similar results. A 100×100 habitat with gradual environment besides road was simulated with a individual-based model, and animal seek for suitable habitat with stochastic locomotion in it. Simulation results indicated that 3 density peak of animal distribution can emergent followed a simply rules. The hump like density cure could be a temporal swarm pattern during the process of individual seeking for habitat. 3. Road traffic caused mass death of amphibians in Zoige wetland. There was much road killed amphibians in May, Aug and Sep than those in July and Oct. The fluctuation of road kill could be related with migration of amphibians between seasons. Logistic regression of landscape variables indicated that wet grassland in 1000-2000m is essential to predict the probability of road kill. Wet grassland is an important breeding and forage habitat for amphibians. It also indicated that mass wet grassland in 1000-2000m is essential for maintain a big amphibian population. 4. There was significant differences among distance from aquatic site of subadults, female and males of R. kukunoris and B. Minshanicus. Possibly, it was because of their dependence on water. There was a significant negative relationship between distance from aquatic site and individuals body mass. Estimates of core habitat that are too large may make it difficult to establish protective regulations. The smallest suitable terrestrial core habitats were defined as the terrestrial habitats used during migration to and from the wetlands, and for foraging by 90% of any life stage (adults, and subadults) in a season. However, even with the same amphibian distribution pattern along the distance from aquatic sites, the radii of smallest suitable terrestrial core habitats will be varied with the fractal parameters of aquatic site.