Informality in the City: a Theoretical Analysis

This thesis theoretically studies the relationship between the informal sector (both in the labor and the housing market) and the city structure.

Conflictes socioterriorials i participació pública en la gestió de l'aigua de la conca del riu Muga (Alt Empordà)

Conflictes socioterritorials i participació pública en la gestió de l'aigua de la conca del riu Muga (Alt Empordà) és un treball que incideix sobre la conflictivitat en la gestió dels rius mediterranis i prospecta en la participació pública -activa i vinculant- per a la resolució de conflictes i la planificació i gestió dels recursos hídrics. En concret, s'ha intentat donar resposta a cinc objectius: Objectius del marc teòric - Comprovar l'existència de dos discursos antagònics (radicalment oposats) en l'esfera social, científica i de gestió dels rius que generen conflicte i que són insostenibles per a una gestió integral dels recursos fluvials: el discurs antropocèntric i el discurs ecocèntric. Matèria d'estudi: L'excepcionalisme humà i l'ecologia profunda en la societat; Les disciplines de la regulació de l'aigua i de l'ecologia fluvial en la ciència; El contracte antropocèntric i el balanç ecocèntric en la gestió; El discurs ambiental (el riu antròpic i ecosistemàtic). - Valorar si les estratègies de participació pública (que involucren als agents socials) gaudeixen -respecte els processos de decisió unilaterals (siguin autoritàries o arbitràries)- de més garanties per corregir i prevenir conflictes desconstructius relacionats amb l'aigua i els recursos fluvials. Matèria d'estudi: Definició de conflicte en positiu; L'estratègia de cooperació i consens en la Resolució Alternativa de Disputes (Alternative Dispute Resolution) i 13 casos resolts de conflictes per l'aigua a l'Oest dels Estats Units; Bases d'un pla de gestió integral, adaptatiu i participatiu i el cas del San Joaquin River Management Plan (Califòrnia, Estats Units). Objectius del marc pràctic. Conca del riu Muga (Alt Empordà) - Contextualitzar la diversificació i intensificació dels usos de l'aigua dins un procés de canvi dels usos del sòl, particularment accelerat a partir de la dècada de 1960 i objecte de problemàtiques socioterritorials d'ençà de la dècada de 1980. Cartografia i matriu de canvi dels usos del sòl de la conca anys 1993 i 1957. Matèria d'estudi: Cartografia i estadística dels usos del sòl de la conca del riu Muga (49 municipis altempordanesos, 1.050 km2), anys 1957 i 1993. Retrospectiva dels espais forestals, d'aigua, conreats i urbanitzats. - Identificar i descriure les tensions i conflictes en l'ús de l'aigua, així com les característiques de les solucions adoptades en el període 1980-2000. Constatar si determinades solucions estructurals han esdevingut problemàtiques a mig o llarg termini, i estimar la probabilitat de conflictes futurs. Matèria d'estudi: 50 incidents problemàtics en abastament d'aigua (26 tensions i 24 conflictes) i 53 mesures per fer-hi front (12 d'adaptació de la demanda i 41 d'adaptació de l'oferta d'aigua) entre els anys 1980 i 2000, i diferenciant dues unitats territorials de la conca (la Muga interior i la plana de la Muga). - Caracteritzar quins són els temes en matèria d'aigua que no disposen de consens entre els agents socioeconòmics, tècnics i polítics locals reunits en les sessions de discussió del projecte MUGA. Determinar si les estratègies participatives poden prosperar perquè són factibles i idònies. Matèria d'estudi: Projecte MUGA: Gestión del recurso agua con participación de agentes. Estudio para la cuenca del río Muga (Girona), 2000-2003 - UAB i UdG; La dissensió d'opinions dels 30 participants a les 4 sessions de discussió entorn l'ús i gestió de l'aigua de la conca de la Muga; 6 temes de conflicte, 14 subtemes i 31 punts de discussió, 9 dels quals punts calents de conflicte (destructius i indicadors de punts de disfunció en la gestió de l'aigua de la conca).

La transformació del paisatge litoral de la Costa Brava: Anàlisi de l'evolució (1956-2003), diagnosi de l'estat actual i prognosi de futur

En la tesi es presenta una anàlisi de l'evolució dels canvis succeïts en el paisatge costaner de la Costa Brava (22 municipis litorals) en els darrers cinquanta anys (1956-2003); un estudi de la seva estructura ecopaisatgística, actual i passada, amb una especial èmfasi en la diagnosi de les conseqüències geoambientals de l'esclat urbanístic iniciat a la dècada de 1960, i s'ha determinat quina ha estat la tendència de canvi en els darrers vint-i-cinc anys la qual s'ha utilitzat per a elaborar models explicatius de la dinàmica territorial seguida i projectar-los cap al futur tot dissenyant escenaris probables. A les Bases teòriques s'exposa en quina parcel·la del coneixement científic es situa aquesta recerca i es repassa l'evolució dels diferents corrents i enfocaments que han precedit, dins la Ciència Geogràfica, els estudis sobre transformació del paisatge. Es posa especial en els principis i metodologies que plantegen les dues escoles d'anàlisi del paisatge en que es basa aquesta tesi: la Landscape Ecology i la estructurada a l'entorn del programa internacional Land Use and Land Cover Change (LUCC). S'ha dissenyat una pauta metodològica per a l'anàlisi paisatgística d'un territori a diferents escales: des de l'àmbit regional de tota la Costa Brava (66.230 ha), on es poden detectar les tendències generals, fins l'estudi detallat a escala local, on s'ha pres com a àrea d'estudi tres municipis del centre de la Costa Brava (6.960 Ha): Palamós, Calonge i Castell-Platja d'Aro. Els principals resultats obtinguts són els següents: Una cartografia d'usos i cobertes del sòl de tres períodes temporals i la conseqüent interpretació espacial per a cada etapa: 1957 (situació preturística), 1980 (inici de les actuacions dels ajuntaments democràtics) i 2003 (actualitat). Una anàlisi quantitativa de la transformació del paisatge i de les relacions espacials associades al canvi, a partir de la cartografia d'usos i cobertes del sòl dels tres períodes mapificats (1956, 1980, 2003). Amb l'objectiu d'arribar a definir quina ha estat la dinàmica dels canvis ocorreguts al llarg dels darrers gairebé cinquanta anys. Una anàlisi de l'estructura del mosaic paisatgístic de cadascun dels talls temporals per mitjà de l'aplicació dels principals índexs de l'Ecologia del Paisatge. S'ha analitzat la geometria de la conversió dels usos del sòl i s'han posat de manifest les repercussions ecològiques i paisatgístiques d'aquests canvis. Per una banda, a partir del càlcul i interpretació dels índexos esmentats s'ha analitzat l'evolució de la morfologia i la distribució territorial dels quatre principals usos i cobertes del sòl de la Costa Brava. Per l'altra, per a la Costa Brava centre s'ha analitzat l'estat dels dos sistemes naturals del litoral amb més pressió antròpica: la franja estrictament costanera i les masses forestals. Respecte als tres municipis de la Costa Brava centre s'han tingut en compte en l'anàlisi de l'evolució del paisatge a escala local, les actuacions desenvolupades en l'àmbit urbanístic municipal i les seves conseqüències paisatgístiques i ambientals. A partir de la informació ja processada, s'han detectat les tendències de canvi a partir de models de canvi d'usos i cobertes del sòl. S'han incorporat també els factors biofísics i antròpics, socials i econòmics, condicionants i responsables d'una determinada utilització del territori en cadascun dels tres períodes. Mitjançant l'anàlisi multivariable s'ha intentat descobrir el conjunt de factors que influencien en la taxa i el patró espacial de canvi d'usos i les seves conseqüències territorials. Finalment s'ha aplicat un model de simulació, basat en els automatismes cel·lulars de Markov, per tal de projectar les tendències de canvi i plantejar escenaris futurs, una eina bàsica per a la planificació futura del territori i per al control de les problemàtiques ambientals. Aquestes mesures serveixen per a definir, per a la Costa Brava centre, un patró espacial dels canvis d'usos del sòl a nivell local, i, per al conjunt de la Costa Brava, per a predir, mitjançant models de simulació quantitativa, els possibles desenvolupaments i per estimar els impactes.

Paisatge i abandonament agrari a la muntanya mediterrània: una aproximació al cas de les Valls d'Hortmoier i Sant Aniol (Alta Garrotxa) des de l'ecologia del paisatge

The methodology is focused on the use of digital air photos to monitor changes in land covers and to study its dynamics and its patterns in the last 50 years. The dissertation also take into account the relationship between open habitats patterns/dynamics versus biodiversity persistence, increase risk of fire, land ownership and management. Therefore Geographic Information System (GIS) is a very interesting mapping tool that enables geographic or spatial data capture, storage, retrieval, manipulation, analysis and modeling. Finally this research develop a heuristic model to create sites using suitability maps and a reserve design model to select the most optimum sites in order to increase landscape heterogeneity at the less cost.

Contrasting Effects of Cattle Grazing Intensity on Upland-Nesting Duck Production at Nest and Field Scales in the Aspen Parkland, Canada

The Aspen Parkland of Canada is one of the most important breeding areas for temperate nesting ducks in North America. The region is dominated by agricultural land use, with approximately 9.3 million ha in pasture land for cattle grazing. However, the effects of using land for cattle grazing on upland-nesting duck production are poorly understood. The current study was undertaken during 2001 and 2002 to investigate how nest density and nesting success of upland-nesting ducks varied with respect to the intensity of cattle grazing in the Aspen Parkland. We predicted that the removal and trampling of vegetation through cattle grazing would reduce duck nest density. Both positive and negative responses of duck nesting success to grazing have been reported in previous studies, leading us to test competing hypotheses that nesting success would (1) decline linearly with grazing intensity or (2) peak at moderate levels of grazing. Nearly 3300 ha of upland cover were searched during the study. Despite extensive and severe drought, nest searches located 302 duck nests. As predicted, nest density was higher in fields with lower grazing intensity and higher pasture health scores. A lightly grazed field with a pasture score of 85 out of a possible 100 was predicted to have 16.1 nests/100 ha (95% CI = 11.7–22.1), more than five times the predicted nest density of a heavily grazed field with a pasture score of 58 (3.3 nests/100 ha, 95% CI = 2.2–4.5). Nesting success was positively related to nest-site vegetation density across most levels of grazing intensity studied, supporting our hypothesis that reductions in vegetation caused by grazing would negatively affect nesting success. However, nesting success increased with grazing intensity at the field scale. For example, nesting success for a well-concealed nest in a lightly grazed field was 11.6% (95% CI = 3.6–25.0%), whereas nesting success for a nest with the same level of nest-site vegetation in a heavily grazed field was 33.9% (95% CI = 17.0–51.8%). Across the range of residual cover observed in this study, nests with above-average nest-site vegetation density had nesting success rates that exceeded the levels believed necessary to maintain duck populations. Our findings on complex and previously unreported relationships between grazing, nest density, and nesting success provide useful insights into the management and conservation of ground-nesting grassland birds.

Drought and Cooler Temperatures Are Associated with Higher Nest Survival in Mountain Plovers

Native grasslands have been altered to a greater extent than any other biome in North America. The habitats and resources needed to support breeding performance of grassland birds endemic to prairie ecosystems are currently threatened by land management practices and impending climate change. Climate models for the Great Plains prairie region predict a future of hotter and drier summers with strong multiyear droughts and more frequent and severe precipitation events. We examined how fluctuations in weather conditions in eastern Colorado influenced nest survival of an avian species that has experienced recent population declines, the Mountain Plover (Charadrius montanus). Nest survival averaged 27.2% over a 7-yr period (n = 936 nests) and declined as the breeding season progressed. Nest survival was favored by dry conditions and cooler temperatures. Projected changes in regional precipitation patterns will likely influence nest survival, with positive influences of predicted declines in summer rainfall yet negative effects of more intense rain events. The interplay of climate change and land use practices within prairie ecosystems may result in Mountain Plovers shifting their distribution, changing local abundance, and adjusting fecundity to adapt to their changing environment.

Changes in heron and egret populations on the Laurentian Great Lakes and connecting channels, 1977-2009

Canadian and U.S. federal wildlife agencies completed four decadal surveys, spanning the years 1977 to 2009, to census colonial waterbirds breeding on the Great Lakes and adjoining bodies of water. In this paper, we reports abundance, distribution, and general population trends of three species: Black-crowned Night-Heron (Nycticorax nycticorax), Great Egret (Ardea alba), and Great Blue Heron (Ardea herodias). Estimates of nest numbers ranged from approximately 4000-6100 for the Black-crowned Night-Heron, 250-1900 for the Great Egret, and 3800-6400 for the Great Blue Heron. Average annual rates of change in nest numbers between the first (1977) and fourth (2008) census were −1% for the Black-crowned Night-Heron, +23% for the Great Egret, and −0.27% for the Great Blue Heron. Across the 30-year census, Black-crowned Night-Heron estimates decreased in U.S. (−57%) but increased (+18%) in Canadian waters, Great Egret nests increased 1381% in Canadian waters with a smaller, but still substantial increase in the number of nests at U.S. colonies (+613%), and Great Blue Heron numbers increased 148% in Canadian waters and 713% in U.S. waters. Although a single factor cannot be clearly linked to changes observed in each species’ distribution, hydrological variation, habitat succession, nest competition with Double-crested Cormorants (Phalacrocorax auritus), and land use changes likely all contributed. Management activities should support both breeding and foraging conditions including restoration of early successional habitats and anticipate continued northward expansions in the distributions of these waterbirds.

Benchmarking 2D hydraulic models for urban flooding

This paper describes benchmark testing of six two-dimensional (2D) hydraulic models (DIVAST, DIVASTTVD, TUFLOW, JFLOW, TRENT and LISFLOOD-FP) in terms of their ability to simulate surface flows in a densely urbanised area. The models are applied to a 1·0 km × 0·4 km urban catchment within the city of Glasgow, Scotland, UK, and are used to simulate a flood event that occurred at this site on 30 July 2002. An identical numerical grid describing the underlying topography is constructed for each model, using a combination of airborne laser altimetry (LiDAR) fused with digital map data, and used to run a benchmark simulation. Two numerical experiments were then conducted to test the response of each model to topographic error and uncertainty over friction parameterisation. While all the models tested produce plausible results, subtle differences between particular groups of codes give considerable insight into both the practice and science of urban hydraulic modelling. In particular, the results show that the terrain data available from modern LiDAR systems are sufficiently accurate and resolved for simulating urban flows, but such data need to be fused with digital map data of building topology and land use to gain maximum benefit from the information contained therein. When such terrain data are available, uncertainty in friction parameters becomes a more dominant factor than topographic error for typical problems. The simulations also show that flows in urban environments are characterised by numerous transitions to supercritical flow and numerical shocks. However, the effects of these are localised and they do not appear to affect overall wave propagation. In contrast, inertia terms are shown to be important in this particular case, but the specific characteristics of the test site may mean that this does not hold more generally.

Uncertainty assessment of a process-based integrated catchment model of phosphorus

Despite the many models developed for phosphorus concentration prediction at differing spatial and temporal scales, there has been little effort to quantify uncertainty in their predictions. Model prediction uncertainty quantification is desirable, for informed decision-making in river-systems management. An uncertainty analysis of the process-based model, integrated catchment model of phosphorus (INCA-P), within the generalised likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) framework is presented. The framework is applied to the Lugg catchment (1,077 km2), a River Wye tributary, on the England–Wales border. Daily discharge and monthly phosphorus (total reactive and total), for a limited number of reaches, are used to initially assess uncertainty and sensitivity of 44 model parameters, identified as being most important for discharge and phosphorus predictions. This study demonstrates that parameter homogeneity assumptions (spatial heterogeneity is treated as land use type fractional areas) can achieve higher model fits, than a previous expertly calibrated parameter set. The model is capable of reproducing the hydrology, but a threshold Nash-Sutcliffe co-efficient of determination (E or R 2) of 0.3 is not achieved when simulating observed total phosphorus (TP) data in the upland reaches or total reactive phosphorus (TRP) in any reach. Despite this, the model reproduces the general dynamics of TP and TRP, in point source dominated lower reaches. This paper discusses why this application of INCA-P fails to find any parameter sets, which simultaneously describe all observed data acceptably. The discussion focuses on uncertainty of readily available input data, and whether such process-based models should be used when there isn’t sufficient data to support the many parameters.

Predicted soil organic carbon stocks and changes in Jordan between 2000 and 2030 made using the GEFSOC modelling system

Estimates of soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks and changes under different land use systems can help determine vulnerability to land degradation. Such information is important for countries in and areas with high susceptibility to desertification. SOC stocks, and predicted changes between 2000 and 2030, were determined at the national scale for Jordan using The Global Environment Facility Soil Organic Carbon (GEFSOC) Modelling System. For the purpose of this study, Jordan was divided into three natural regions (The Jordan Valley, the Uplands and the Badia) and three developmental regions (North, Middle and South). Based on this division, Jordan was divided into five zones (based on the dominant land use): the Jordan Valley, the North Uplands, the Middle Uplands, the South Uplands and the Badia. This information was merged using GIS, along with a map of rainfall isohyets, to produce a map with 498 polygons. Each of these was given a unique ID, a land management unit identifier and was characterized in terms of its dominant soil type. Historical land use data, current land use and future land use change scenarios were also assembled, forming major inputs of the modelling system. The GEFSOC Modelling System was then run to produce C stocks in Jordan for the years 1990, 2000 and 2030. The results were compared with conventional methods of estimating carbon stocks, such as the mapping based SOTER method. The results of these comparisons showed that the model runs are acceptable, taking into consideration the limited availability of long-term experimental soil data that can be used to validate them. The main findings of this research show that between 2000 and 2030, SOC may increase in heavily used areas under irrigation and will likely decrease in grazed rangelands that cover most of Jordan giving an overall decrease in total SOC over time if the land is indeed used under the estimated forms of land use. (C) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Cropping systems, carbon sequestration and erosion in Brazil, a review

Soils represent a large carbon pool, approximately 1500 Gt, which is equivalent to almost three times the quantity stored in terrestrial biomass and twice the amount stored in the atmosphere. Any modification of land use or land management can induce variations in soil carbon stocks, even in agricultural systems that are perceived to be in a steady state. Tillage practices often induce soil aerobic conditions that are favourable to microbial activity and may lead to a degradation of soil structure. As a result, mineralisation of soil organic matter increases in the long term. The adoption of no-tillage systems and the maintenance of a permanent vegetation cover using Direct seeding Mulch-based Cropping system or DMC, may increase carbon levels in the topsoil. In Brazil, no-tillage practices (mainly DMC), were introduced approximately 30 years ago in the south in the Parana state, primarily as a means of reducing erosion. Subsequently, research has begun to study the management of the crop waste products and their effects on soil fertility, either in terms of phosphorus management, as a means of controlling soil acidity, or determining how manures can be applied in a more localised manner. The spread of no-till in Brazil has involved a large amount of extension work. The area under no-tillage is still increasing in the centre and north of the country and currently occupies ca. 20 million hectares, covering a diversity of environmental conditions, cropping systems and management practices. Most studies of Brazilian soils give rates of carbon storage in the top 40 cm of the soil of 0.4 to 1.7 t C ha(-1) per year, with the highest rates in the Cerrado region. However, caution must be taken when analysing DMC systems in terms of carbon sequestration. Comparisons should include changes in trace gas fluxes and should not be limited to a consideration of carbon storage in the soil alone if the full implications for global warming are to be assessed.

Spatial and temporal scale issues in determining biomass burning regimes in Bolivia and Peru

ATSR-2 active fire data from 1996 to 2000, TRMM VIRS fire counts from 1998 to 2000 and burn scars derived from SPOT VEGETATION ( the Global Burnt Area 2000 product) were mapped for Peru and Bolivia to analyse the spatial distribution of burning and its intra- and inter-annual variability. The fire season in the region mainly occurs between May and October; though some variation was found between the six broad habitat types analysed: desert, grassland, savanna, dry forest, moist forest and yungas (the forested valleys on the eastern slope of the Andes). Increased levels of burning were generally recorded in ATSR-2 and TRMM VIRS fire data in response to the 1997/1998 El Nino, but in some areas the El Nino effect was masked by the more marked influences of socio-economic change on land use and land cover. There were differences between the three global datasets: ATSR-2 under-recorded fires in ecosystems with low net primary productivities. This was because fires are set during the day in this region and, when fuel loads are low, burn out before the ATSR-2 overpass in the region which is between 02.45 h and 03.30 h. TRMM VIRS was able to detect these fires because its overpasses cover the entire diurnal range on a monthly basis. The GBA2000 product has significant errors of commission (particularly areas of shadow in the well-dissected eastern Andes) and omission (in the agricultural zone around Santa Cruz, Bolivia and in north-west Peru). Particular attention was paid to biomass burning in high-altitude grasslands, where fire is an important pastoral management technique. Fires and burn scars from Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM) and Enhanced Thematic Mapper (ETM) data for a range of years between 1987 and 2000 were mapped for areas around Parque Nacional Rio Abiseo (Peru) and Parque Nacional Carrasco (Bolivia). Burn scars mapped in the grasslands of these two areas indicate far more burning had taken place than either the fires or the burn scars derived from global datasets. Mean scar sizes are smaller and have a smaller range in size between years the in the study area in Peru (6.6-7.1 ha) than Bolivia (16.9-162.5 ha). Trends in biomass burning in the two highland areas can be explained in terms of the changing socio-economic environments and impacts of conservation. The mismatch between the spatial scale of biomass burning in the high-altitude grasslands and the sensors used to derive global fire products means that an entire component of the fire regime in the region studied is omitted, despite its importance in the farming systems on the Andes.

Predicted soil organic carbon stocks and changes in the Brazilian Amazon between 2000 and 2030

Currently we have little understanding of the impacts of land use change on soil C stocks in the Brazilian Amazon. Such information is needed to determine impacts'6n the global C cycle and the sustainability of agricultural systems that are replacing native forest. The aim of this study was to predict soil carbon stocks and changes in the Brazilian Amazon during the period between 2000 and 2030, using the GEFSOC soil carbon (C) modelling system. In order to do so, we devised current and future land use scenarios for the Brazilian Amazon, taking into account: (i) deforestation, rates from the past three decades, (ii) census data on land use from 1940 to 2000, including the expansion and intensification of agriculture in the region, (iii) available information on management practices, primarily related to well managed pasture versus degraded pasture and conventional systems versus no-tillage systems for soybean (Glycine max) and (iv) FAO predictions on agricultural land use and land use changes for the years 2015 and 2030. The land use scenarios were integrated with spatially explicit soils data (SOTER database), climate, potential natural vegetation and land management units using the recently developed GEFSOC soil C modelling system. Results are presented in map, table and graph form for the entire Brazilian Amazon for the current situation (1990 and 2000) and the future (2015 and 2030). Results include soil organic C (SOC) stocks and SOC stock change rates estimated by three methods: (i) the Century ecosystem model, (ii) the Rothamsted C model and (iii) the intergovernmental panel on climate change (IPCC) method for assessing soil C at regional scale. In addition, we show estimated values of above and belowground biomass for native vegetation, pasture and soybean. The results on regional SOC stocks compare reasonably well with those based on mapping approaches. The GEFSOC system provided a means of efficiently handling complex interactions among biotic-edapho-climatic conditions (> 363,000 combinations) in a very large area (similar to 500 Mha) such as the Brazilian Amazon. All of the methods used showed a decline in SOC stock for the period studied; Century and RothC simulated values for 2030 being about 7% lower than those in 1990. Values from Century and RothC (30,430 and 25,000 Tg for the 0-20 cm layer for the Brazilian Amazon region were higher than those obtained from the IPCC system (23,400 Tg in the 0-30 cm layer). Finally; our results can help understand the major biogeochemical cycles that influence soil fertility and help devise management strategies that enhance the sustainability of these areas and thus slow further deforestation. (C) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Predicted soil organic carbon stocks and changes in Kenya between 1990 and 2030

Under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), Non-Annex 1 countries such as Kenya are obliged to report green house gas (GHG) emissions from all sources where possible, including those from soils as a result of changes in land use or land management. At present, the convention encourages countries to estimate emissions using the most advanced methods possible, given the country circumstances and resources. Estimates of soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks and changes were made for Kenya using the Global Environment Facility Soil Organic Carbon (GEFSOC) Modelling System. The tool conducts analysis using three methods: (1) the Century general ecosystem model; (2) the RothC soil C decomposition model; and (3) the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) method for assessing soil C at regional scales. The required datasets included: land use history, monthly mean precipitation, monthly mean minimum and maximum temperatures for all the agro-climatic zones of Kenya and historical vegetation cover. Soil C stocks of 1.4-2.0 Pg (0-20 cm), compared well with a Soil and Terrain (SOTER) based approach that estimated similar to .8-2.0 Pg (0-30 cm). In 1990 48% of the country had SOC stocks of < 18 t C ha(-1) and 20% of the country had SOC stocks of 18-30 t C ha(-1), whereas in 2000 56% of the country had SOC stocks of < 18 t C ha(-1) and 31% of the country had SOC stocks of 18-30 t C ha(-1). Conversion of natural vegetation to annual crops led to the greatest soil C losses. Simulations suggest that soil C losses remain substantial throughout the modelling period of 1990-2030. All three methods involved in the GEFSOC System estimated that there would be a net loss of soil C between 2000 and 2030 in Kenya. The decline was more marked with RothC than with Century or the IPCC method. In non-hydric soils the SOC change rates were more pronounced in high sandy soils compared to high clay soils in most land use systems. (C) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.