Differences between theoretical predictions and operational performance in a stock control application

Over the past decade, several experienced Operational Researchers have advanced the view that the theoretical aspects of model building have raced ahead of the ability of people to use them. Consequently, the impact of Operational Research on commercial organisations and the public sector is limited, and many systems fail to achieve their anticipated benefits in full. The primary objective of this study is to examine a complex interactive Stock Control system, and identify the reasons for the differences between the theoretical expectations and the operational performance. The methodology used is to hypothesise all the possible factors which could cause a divergence between theory and practice, and to evaluate numerically the effect each of these factors has on two main control indices - Service Level and Average Stock Value. Both analytical and empirical methods are used, and simulation is employed extensively. The factors are divided into two main categories for analysis - theoretical imperfections in the model, and the usage of the system by Buyers. No evidence could be found in the literature of any previous attempts to place the differences between theory and practice in a system in quantitative perspective nor, more specifically, to study the effects of Buyer/computer interaction in a Stock Control system. The study reveals that, in general, the human factors influencing performance are of a much higher order of magnitude than the theoretical factors, thus providing objective evidence to support the original premise. The most important finding is that, by judicious intervention into an automatic stock control algorithm, it is possible for Buyers to produce results which not only attain but surpass the algorithmic predictions. However, the complexity and behavioural recalcitrance of these systems are such that an innately numerate, enquiring type of Buyer needs to be inducted to realise the performance potential of the overall man/computer system.

The control of mitosis in mammalian tissues

The question of which factors are central in determining whether a cell will undertake a new round of mitosis or will decycle has been examined in the isolated thymic lymphocyte model. Such cell populations possess both in vivo and in vitro a subpopulation of quiescent lymphoblasts which may be induced to reinitiate their mitotic programme. In the intact animal the major determinant of proliferative activity is the plasma ionised calcium concentration. However it has been established in culture that a variety of hormones, ions, cyclic nucleotides, plant lectins and ionophores may like calcium elicit a mitogenic response. These agents do not appear however to initiate DNA synthesis in an identical fashion. Rather there are two distinct intracellular mitogenic axes. The first axis includes a number of adenylate cyclase stimulants, cyclic AMP, phosphodiesterase inhibitors and magnesium ions. It was found that all these mitogens required extracellular magnesium ions to exhibit their stimulatory capacity. This dichotomy in mitogenic activity was further emphasised by the observation that these mitogens are all inhibited by testosterone, whilst the magnesium-independent mitogens were insensitive to this androgen. Indeed this second group of stimulatory factors required the presence of calcium ions in the extracellular milieu for activity, and were, in contrast to the magnesium-dependent mitogens inhibited by the presence of oestradiol in the culture. By examining the interrelationships between these various mitogens and inhibitors it has been possible to propose a mechanism to describe the activation process in the thymocyte. Studies of the metabolism of cyclic nucleotides, membrane potential and transmembrane ion fluxes indicate that there may be a complex relationship between membrane fluidity, ion balance and cyclic nucleotide levels which may individually or in concert promote the initiation of DNA synthesis. A number of possible mechanisms are discussed to account for these observations.

Intracellar signalling in the HGT-1 gastric cell line and in rat isolated parietal cells

The work presented in this thesis was undertaken to increase understanding of the intracellular mechanisms regulating acid secretion by gastric parietal cells. Investigation of the effects of protein kinase C on secretory activity induced by a variety of agents was a major objective. A further aim was to establish the sites at which epidermal growth factor (EGF) acts to stimulate prostaglandin E2 (PGE2) production and to inhibit acid secretion. These investigations were carried out by using the HGT-1 human gastric cancer cell line and freshly isolated rat parietal cells. In HGT-1 cells, the cyclic AMP response to histamine and to truncated glucagon-like peptide 1 (TGLP-1) was reduced when protein kinase C was activated by 12-0-tetradecanoylphorbol 13-acetate (TPA). Receptor-binding studies and experiments in which cyclic AMP production in HGT-1 cells was stimulated by gastric inhibitory polypeptide, cholera toxin and forskolin suggested that the effect of TPA was mediated by uncoupling of the histamine H2 receptor from the guanine nucleotide regulatory protein Gs, possibly by phosphorylation of the receptor. An involvement of protein kinase C α in this effect was suggested because an antibody to this isoform specifically prevented the inhibitory effects of TPA on histamine-stimulated adenylate cyclase activity in a membrane fraction prepared from HGT-1 cells. Carbachol-stimulated secretory activity in parietal cells was specifically inhibited by Ro 31-8220, a bisindolylmaleimide inhibitor of protein kinase C. Thus protein kinase C may play a role in the activation of the secretory response to carbachol. In parietal cells prelabelled with [3H]-arachidonic acid or [3H]myristic acid, EGF did not affect [3H]-fatty acid or [3H] - diacylglycerol content. No evidence for effects of EGF on phosphatidylinositol glycan-specific phospholipase C, phospholipase A2 or on low Km cyclic AMP phosphodiesterase activities were found.

On the modulation of the effects of some 5 - HT - related agents in axiety models

The results of an investigation into how stressors interact with the action of serotonergic agents in animal models of anxiety are presented. Water deprivation and restraint both increased plasma corticosterone concentrations and elevated 5-HT turnover. In the elevated X-maze, water deprivation had a duration-dependent "anxiolytic" effect. The effect of restraint was dependent on the duration of restraint and was to inhibit maze exploration. Water-deprivation did not influence the action of diazepam or any 5-HT1A ligand in the X-maze. Restraint switched the "anxiogenic" effect of 8-0H-DPAT to either "anxiolytic" or inactive, depending on the time after the restraint when testing was performed. The Vogel conflict test detected an "anxiolytic" "anxiolytic"V"anxiolytic""anxiolytic" effect of buspirone which was additive with "anxiolytic" effects of pindolol and propranolol. Diazepam and fluoxetine were also active, but 8-0H-DPAT, ipsapirone, gepirone and yohimbine were inactive. In the elevated X-maze, "anxiogenic" responses to picrotoxin, flumazenil, RU 24969, CGS 12066B, fluoxetine and 8-0H-DPAT were detected. Other 5-HT1A ligands were inactive. Diazepam and corticosterone had "anxiolytic" effects. Increasing light intensity did not change behaviour on the elevated X-maze, but was able to reverse the effect of 8- OH-DPAT to an "anxiolytic" action. This effect was attributed to a presynaptic mechanism, because it was abolished by pCPA. The occurence of different behaviours in different reglons of the maze was shown to be susceptible to modulation by "anxiolytic" and "anxiogenic" drugs. These results are discussed in the context of there being at least two separate 5-HT mechanisms which are involved in the control of anxiety.

Developing a decision framework for the strategic sourcing of biomass

The deployment of bioenergy technologies is a key part of UK and European renewable energy policy. A key barrier to the deployment of bioenergy technologies is the management of biomass supply chains including the evaluation of suppliers and the contracting of biomass. In the undeveloped biomass for energy market buyers of biomass are faced with three major challenges during the development of new bioenergy projects. What characteristics will a certain supply of biomass have, how to evaluate biomass suppliers and which suppliers to contract with in order to provide a portfolio of suppliers that best satisfies the needs of the project and its stakeholder group whilst also satisfying crisp and non-crisp technological constraints. The problem description is taken from the situation faced by the industrial partner in this research, Express Energy Ltd. This research tackles these three areas separately then combines them to form a decision framework to assist biomass buyers with the strategic sourcing of biomass. The BioSS framework. The BioSS framework consists of three modes which mirror the development stages of bioenergy projects. BioSS.2 mode for early stage development, BioSS.3 mode for financial close stage and BioSS.Op for the operational phase of the project. BioSS is formed of a fuels library, a supplier evaluation module and an order allocation module, a Monte-Carlo analysis module is also included to evaluate the accuracy of the recommended portfolios. In each mode BioSS can recommend which suppliers should be contracted with and how much material should be purchased from each. The recommended blend should have chemical characteristics within the technological constraints of the conversion technology and also best satisfy the stakeholder group. The fuels library is made up from a wide variety of sources and contains around 100 unique descriptions of potential biomass sources that a developer may encounter. The library takes a wide data collection approach and has the aim of allowing for estimates to be made of biomass characteristics without expensive and time consuming testing. The supplier evaluation part of BioSS uses a QFD-AHP method to give importance weightings to 27 different evaluating criteria. The evaluating criteria have been compiled from interviews with stakeholders and policy and position documents and the weightings have been assigned using a mixture of workshops and expert interview. The weighted importance scores allow potential suppliers to better tailor their business offering and provides a robust framework for decision makers to better understand the requirements of the bioenergy project stakeholder groups. The order allocation part of BioSS uses a chance-constrained programming approach to assign orders of material between potential suppliers based on the chemical characteristics of those suppliers and the preference score of those suppliers. The optimisation program finds the portfolio of orders to allocate to suppliers to give the highest performance portfolio in the eyes of the stakeholder group whilst also complying with technological constraints. The technological constraints can be breached if the decision maker requires by setting the constraint as a chance-constraint. This allows a wider range of biomass sources to be procured and allows a greater overall performance to be realised than considering crisp constraints or using deterministic programming approaches. BioSS is demonstrated against two scenarios faced by UK bioenergy developers. The first is a large scale combustion power project, the second a small scale gasification project. The Bioss is applied in each mode for both scenarios and is shown to adapt the solution to the stakeholder group importance and the different constraints of the different conversion technologies whilst finding a globally optimal portfolio for stakeholder satisfaction.

Evaluating the effect of splitting cylindrical power on improving patient tolerance to toric lens misalignment

Purpose: Evaluating the impact of splitting toric power on patient tolerance to misorientation such as with intraocular lens rotation. Setting: University vision clinic. Methods: Healthy, non astigmats had +1.50D astigmatism induced with spectacle lenses at 90°, 135°, 180° and +3.00D at 90°. Two correcting cylindrical lenses of the opposite sign and half the power each were subsequently added to the trial frame misaligned by 0°, 5° or 10° in a random order and misorientated from the initial axis in a clockwise direction by up to 15° in 5° steps. A second group of adapted astigmats with between 1.00 and 3.00DC had their astigmatism corrected with two toric spectacle lenses of half the power separated by 0°, 5° or 10° and misorientated from the initial axis in both directions by up to 15° in 5° steps. Distance, high contrast visual acuity was measured using a computerised test chart at each lens misalignment and misorientation. Results: Misorientation of the split toric lenses caused a statistically significant drop in visual acuity (F= 70.341; p< 0.001). Comparatively better acuities were observed around 180°, as anticipated (F= 3.775; p= 0.035). Misaligning the split toric power produced no benefit in visual acuity retention with axis misorientation when subjects had astigmatism induced with a low (F= 2.190, p= 0.129) or high cylinder (F= 0.491, p= 0.617) or in the adapted astigmats (F= 0.120, p= 0.887). Conclusion: Misalignment of toric lens power split across the front and back lens surfaces had no beneficial effect on distance visual acuity, but also no negative effect. © 2013 British Contact Lens Association.

What the newspapers say about medication adherence:a content analysis

Background - This study investigates the coverage of adherence to medicine by the UK and US newsprint media. Adherence to medicine is recognised as an important issue facing healthcare professionals and the newsprint media is a key source of health information, however, little is known about newspaper coverage of medication adherence. Methods - A search of the newspaper database Nexis®UK from 2004–2011 was performed. Content analysis of newspaper articles which referenced medication adherence from the twelve highest circulating UK and US daily newspapers and their Sunday equivalents was carried out. A second researcher coded a 15% sample of newspaper articles to establish the inter-rater reliability of coding. Results - Searches of newspaper coverage of medication adherence in the UK and US yielded 181 relevant articles for each country. There was a large increase in the number of scientific articles on medication adherence in PubMed® over the study period, however, this was not reflected in the frequency of newspaper articles published on medication adherence. UK newspaper articles were significantly more likely to report the benefits of adherence (p = 0.005), whereas US newspaper articles were significantly more likely to report adherence issues in the elderly population (p = 0.004) and adherence associated with diseases of the central nervous system (p = 0.046). The most commonly reported barriers to adherence were patient factors e.g. poor memory, beliefs and age, whereas, the most commonly reported facilitators to adherence were medication factors including simplified regimens, shorter treatment duration and combination tablets. HIV/AIDS was the single most frequently cited disease (reported in 20% of newspaper articles). Poor quality reporting of medication adherence was identified in 62% of newspaper articles. Conclusion - Adherence is not well covered in the newspaper media despite a significant presence in the medical literature. The mass media have the potential to help educate and shape the public’s knowledge regarding the importance of medication adherence; this potential is not being realised at present.

Contracts for the sale of land and personal property:the equitable interests of the purchaser

As property lawyers, we are all familiar with the general principle that a contract for the sale of land, which is capable of specific performance, operates in equity so as to confer a trust on the purchaser pending completion of the sale. Although some controversy exists as to the exact nature of the trust, it is well established that, upon exchange of contracts, equity will ‘‘treat that as done which ought to be done’’1 with the consequence that the purchaser acquires equitable ownership even though full (legal) title to the land will not pass until completion (and registration). As land is unique, specific performance is readily available in the context of sales of land where damages would, clearly, not be an adequate remedy. The same cannot be said for contracts for the purchase of personal property where invariably the subject matter is not unique and where a substitute can easily be acquired in the open market. In circumstances, however, where the property is unique or scarce (for example, a rare painting or vintage car), the maxim that ‘‘equity treats as done that which ought to be done’’ may be invoked so as to confer on the seller an equitable obligation to transfer the property to the purchaser in fulfilment of the contract. Where, therefore, the contract is specifically enforceable in this way, the seller, it is submitted, will again hold the property on trust for the purchaser where, as in a contract for the sale of land, there is an interval between the date of the contract and completion of the sale. The notion that a seller holds personal property upon trust for the purchaser pending completion of the sale is admittedly controversial, but this article seeks to argue that the same principles governing equity’s intervention in sales of land should apply in the context of sales of personalty. It is submitted that equity’s role in imposing a trust on the vendor both in relation to sales of land and personalty may be important in safeguarding the interests of the purchaser prior to, as well as after, completion of the transaction.

Forecasting the term structure when short-term rates are near zero

This paper compares the experience of forecasting the UK government bond yield curve before and after the dramatic lowering of short-term interest rates from October 2008. Out-of-sample forecasts for 1, 6 and 12 months are generated from each of a dynamic Nelson-Siegel model, autoregressive models for both yields and the principal components extracted from those yields, a slope regression and a random walk model. At short forecasting horizons, there is little difference in the performance of the models both prior to and after 2008. However, for medium- to longer-term horizons, the slope regression provided the best forecasts prior to 2008, while the recent experience of near-zero short interest rates coincides with a period of forecasting superiority for the autoregressive and dynamic Nelson-Siegel models. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Terrorism and the law:by Clive Walker

Book review: Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2011, lxxiii + 538 + (index) 15pp (£145.00 hardback). ISBN: 978-0-19-956117-9.

Introduction to the Law of Trusts by Simon Gardner

Book review of Prof Gardiner's work on Trusts, thrid edition.

Departmental elections and the changing landscape of French politics

The departmental elections of March 2015 redrew the French political landscape, setting the new terms of electoral competition in advance of the regional elections of December 2015 and, more critically, the presidential election of April–May 2017. These elections saw the far-right National Front (FN) come top in both rounds only to be outmanoeuvred by the mainstream parties and prevented from winning a single department. As a case study in vote–seat distortion, the elections highlighted a voting system effective in keeping the FN out of executive power but deficient in terms of democratic representation and inadequate as a response to the new tripartite realities of France's changing political landscape.

Investigating the utility of clinical assessments to predict success with presbyopic contact lens correction

PURPOSE: To determine the utility of a range of clinical and non-clinical indicators to aid the initial selection of the optimum presbyopic contact lens. In addition, to assess whether lens preference was influenced by the visual performance compared to the other designs trialled (intra-subject) or compared to participants who preferred other designs (inter-subject). METHODS: A double-masked randomised crossover trial of Air Optix Aqua multifocal, PureVision 2 for Presbyopia, Acuvue OASYS for Presbyopia, Biofinity multifocal and monovision was conducted on 35 presbyopes (54.3±6.2years). Participant lifestyle, personality, pupil characteristics and aberrometry were assessed prior to lens fitting. After 4 weeks of wear, high and low contrast visual acuity (VA) under photopic and mesopic conditions, reading speed, Near Activity Visual Questionnaire (NAVQ) rating, subjective quality-of-vision scoring, defocus curves, stereopsis, halometry, aberrometry and ocular physiology were quantified. RESULTS: After trialling all the lenses, preference was mixed (n=12 Biofinity, n=10 monovision, n=7 Purevision, n=4 Air Optix Aqua, n=2 Oasys). Lens preference was not dependent on personality (F=1.182, p=0.323) or the hours spent working at near (p=0.535) or intermediate (p=0.759) distances. No intersubject or strong intrasubject relationships emerged between lens preference and reading speed, NAVQ rating, halo size, aberrometry or ocular physiology (p>0.05). CONCLUSIONS: Participant lifestyle and personality, ocular optics, contact lens visual performance and ocular physiology provided poor indicators of the preferred lens type after 4 weeks of wear. This is confounded by the wide range of task visual demands of presbyopes and the limited optical differences between current multifocal contact lens designs.