Dengue fever and el nino-southern oscillation in Queensland, Australia : a time series predictive model

Background It remains unclear over whether it is possible to develop an epidemic forecasting model for transmission of dengue fever in Queensland, Australia. Objectives To examine the potential impact of El Niño/Southern Oscillation on the transmission of dengue fever in Queensland, Australia and explore the possibility of developing a forecast model of dengue fever. Methods Data on the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), an indicator of El Niño/Southern Oscillation activity, were obtained from the Australian Bureau of Meteorology. Numbers of dengue fever cases notified and the numbers of postcode areas with dengue fever cases between January 1993 and December 2005 were obtained from the Queensland Health and relevant population data were obtained from the Australia Bureau of Statistics. A multivariate Seasonal Auto-regressive Integrated Moving Average model was developed and validated by dividing the data file into two datasets: the data from January 1993 to December 2003 were used to construct a model and those from January 2004 to December 2005 were used to validate it. Results A decrease in the average SOI (ie, warmer conditions) during the preceding 3–12 months was significantly associated with an increase in the monthly numbers of postcode areas with dengue fever cases (β=−0.038; p = 0.019). Predicted values from the Seasonal Auto-regressive Integrated Moving Average model were consistent with the observed values in the validation dataset (root-mean-square percentage error: 1.93%). Conclusions Climate variability is directly and/or indirectly associated with dengue transmission and the development of an SOI-based epidemic forecasting system is possible for dengue fever in Queensland, Australia.

Combining the parts to make the whole : integrated child and family services in Queensland

Over the past decade, the promotion of 'integrated child and family services' has emerged as a strong and consistent theme within Australian early childhood policy. Fuelling this trend is the belief that integrated service provision is more responsive to holistic family needs, offering better support to parents and thereby promoting better outcomes for young children. Adding further strength is the prevention and early intervention literature, and suggested social and economic benefits of 'effective' early years services and supports. States and territories are introducing new integrated child and family service models and Reflections is continuing to profile these. In this edition, we look at directions and new service models in Queensland, in particular, the new Early Years Centre service model.

Towards a new model of successful faking

Existing literature has failed to find robust relationships between individual differences and the ability to fake psychological tests, possibly due to limitations in how successful faking is operationalised. In order to fake, individuals must alter their original profile to create a particular impression. Currently, successful faking is operationalised through statistical definitions, informant ratings, known groups comparisons, the use of archival and baseline data, and breaches of validity indexes. However, there are many methodological limitations to these approaches. This research proposed a three component model of successful faking to address this, where an original response is manipulated into a strategic response, which must match a criteria target. Further, by operationalising successful faking in this manner, this research takes into account the fact that individuals may have been successful in reaching their implicitly created profile, but that this may not have matched the criteria they were instructed to fake.Participants (N=48, 22 students and 26 non-students) completed the BDI-II honestly. Participants then faked the BDI-II as if they had no, mild, moderate and severe depression, as well as completing a checklist revealing which symptoms they thought indicated each level of depression. Findings were consistent with a three component model of successful faking, where individuals effectively changed their profile to what they believed was required, however this profile differed from the criteria defined by the psychometric norms of the test.One of the foremost issues for research in this area is the inconsistent manner in which successful faking is operationalised. This research allowed successful faking to be operationalised in an objective, quantifiable manner. Using this model as a template may allow researchers better understanding of the processes involved in faking, including the role of strategies and abilities in determining the outcome of test dissimulation.

Academic rigour in science assessment tasks

The critical problem of student disengagement and underachievement in the middle years of schooling (Years 4 . 9) has focussed attention on the quality of educational programs in schools, in Australia and elsewhere. The loss of enthusiasm for science in the middle years is particularly problematic given the growing demand for science professionals. Reshaping middle years programs has included an emphasis on integrating Information and Communication Technologies (ICTs) and improving assessment practices to engage students in higher cognitive processes and enhance academic rigour. Understanding the nature of academic rigour and how to embed it in students. science assessment tasks that incorporate the use of ICTs could enable teachers to optimise the quality of the learning environment. However, academic rigour is not clearly described or defined in the literature and there is little empirical evidence upon which researchers and teachers could draw to enhance understandings. This study used a collective case study design to explore teachers' understandings of academic rigour within science assessment tasks. The research design is based on a conceptual framework that is underpinned by socio-cultural theory. Three methods were used to collect data from six middle years teachers and their students. These methods were a survey, focus group discussion with teachers and a group of students and individual semi-structured interviews with teachers. Findings of the case study revealed six criteria of academic rigour, namely, higher order thinking, alignment, building on prior knowledge, scaffolding, knowledge construction and creativity. Results showed that the middle years teachers held rich understandings of academic rigour that led to effective utilisation of ICTs in science assessment tasks. Findings also indicated that teachers could further enhance their understandings of academic rigour in some aspects of each of the criteria. In particular, this study found that academic rigour could have been further optimised by: promoting more thoughtful discourse and interaction to foster higher order thinking; increasing alignment between curriculum, pedagogy, and assessment, and students. prior knowledge; placing greater emphasis on identifying, activating and building on prior knowledge; better differentiating the level of scaffolding provided and applying it more judiciously; fostering creativity throughout tasks; enhancing teachers‟ content knowledge and pedagogical content knowledge, and providing more in-depth coverage of fewer topics to support knowledge construction. Key contributions of this study are a definition and a model which clarify the nature of academic rigour.

An application of Keller’s Brand Equity Model in a B2B context

Powerful brands create meaningful images in the minds of customers (Keller, 1993). A strong brand image and reputation enhances differentiation and has a positive influence on buying behaviour (Gordon et al., 1993; McEnally and de Chernatony, 1999). While the power of branding is widely acknowledged in consumer markets, the nature and importance of branding in industrial markets remains under-researched. Many business-to-business (B2B) strategists have claimed brand-building belongs in the consumer realm. They argue that industrial products do not need branding as it is confusing and adds little value to functional products (Collins, 1977; Lorge, 1998; Saunders and Watt, 1979). Others argue that branding and the concept of brand equity however are increasingly important in industrial markets, because it has been shown that what a brand means to a buyer can be a determining factor in deciding between industrial purchase alternatives (Aaker, 1991). In this context, it is critical for suppliers to initiate and sustain relationships due to the small number of potential customers (Ambler, 1995; Webster and Keller, 2004). To date however, there is no model available to assist B2B marketers in identifying and measuring brand equity. In this paper, we take a step in that direction by operationalising and empirically testing a prominent brand equity model in a B2B context. This makes not only a theoretical contribution by advancing branding research, but also addresses a managerial need for information that will assist in the assessment of industrial branding efforts.

The carrying capacity imperative : assessing regional carrying capacity methodologies for sustainable land-use planning

While some existing carrying capacity methodologies offer significant insights into the assessment of population carrying capacities, a comprehensive model is yet to be developed. This research identifies, examines and compares a range of methodological approaches to carrying capacity assessment and considers their relevance to future spatial planning. A range of key criteria are employed to compare various existing carrying capacity assessment models. These criteria include integrated systems analysis, dynamic responses, levels of risk, systemic constraints, applicability to future planning and the consideration of regional boundary delineation. It is suggested that by combining successful components from various authors, and collecting a range of interconnected data, a practical and workable system-based model may be achievable in the future.

Implications of faecal indicator bacteria for the microbiological assessment of roof harvested rainwater quality in Southeast Queensland, Australia

The study aimed to evaluate the suitability of Escherichia coli, enterococci and C. perfringens to assess the microbiological quality of roof harvested rainwater, and to assess whether the concentrations of these faecal indicators can be used to predict the presence or absence of specific zoonotic bacterial or protozoan pathogens. From a total of 100 samples tested, respectively 58%, 83% and 46% of samples were found to be positive for E. coli, enterococci and C. perfringens spores, as determined by traditional culture based methods. Additionally, in the samples tested, 7%, 19%, 1%, 8%, 17%, and 15% were PCR positive for A. hydrophila lip, C. coli ceuE, C. jejuni mapA, L. pneumophila mip, Salmonella invA, and G. lamblia β-giardin genes. However, none of the samples was positive for E. coli O157 LPS, VT1, VT2 and C. parvum COWP genes. The presence or absence of these potential pathogens did not correlate with any of the faecal indicator bacterial concentrations as determined by a binary logistic regression model. The roof-harvested rainwater samples tested in this study appear to be of poor microbiological quality and no significant correlation was found between the concentration of faecal indicators and pathogenic microorganisms. The use of faecal indicator bacteria raises questions regarding their reliability in assessing the microbiological quality of water and particularly their poor correlation with pathogenic microorganisms. The presence of one or more zoonotic pathogens suggests that the microbiological analysis of water should be performed, and appropriate treatment measures should be undertaken especially in tanks where the water is used for drinking.

Numerical simulation of axially loaded concrete columns under transverse impact and vulnerability assessment

With a view to assessing the vulnerability of columns to low elevation vehicular impacts, a non-linear explicit numerical model has been developed and validated using existing experimental results. The numerical model accounts for the effects of strain rate and confinement of the reinforced concrete, which are fundamental to the successful prediction of the impact response. The sensitivity of the material model parameters used for the validation is also scrutinised and numerical tests are performed to examine their suitability to simulate the shear failure conditions. Conflicting views on the strain gradient effects are discussed and the validation process is extended to investigate the ability of the equations developed under concentric loading conditions to simulate flexural failure events. Experimental data on impact force–time histories, mid span and residual deflections and support reactions have been verified against corresponding numerical results. A universal technique which can be applied to determine the vulnerability of the impacted columns against collisions with new generation vehicles under the most common impact modes is proposed. Additionally, the observed failure characteristics of the impacted columns are explained using extended outcomes. Based on the overall results, an analytical method is suggested to quantify the vulnerability of the columns.

Structural health monitoring : vibration-based damage detection and condition assessment of bridges

Structural health is a vital aspect of infrastructure sustainability. As a part of a vital infrastructure and transportation network, bridge structures must function safely at all times. However, due to heavier and faster moving vehicular loads and function adjustment, such as Busway accommodation, many bridges are now operating at an overload beyond their design capacity. Additionally, the huge renovation and replacement costs are a difficult burden for infrastructure owners. The structural health monitoring (SHM) systems proposed recently are incorporated with vibration-based damage detection techniques, statistical methods and signal processing techniques and have been regarded as efficient and economical ways to assess bridge condition and foresee probable costly failures. In this chapter, the recent developments in damage detection and condition assessment techniques based on vibration-based damage detection and statistical methods are reviewed. The vibration-based damage detection methods based on changes in natural frequencies, curvature or strain modes, modal strain energy, dynamic flexibility, artificial neural networks, before and after damage, and other signal processing methods such as Wavelet techniques, empirical mode decomposition and Hilbert spectrum methods are discussed in this chapter.

Integration of a road traffic noise model (ASJ) and traffic simulation (AVENUE) for a built-up area

A road traffic noise prediction model (ASJ MODEL-1998) has been integrated with a road traffic simulator (AVENUE) to produce the Dynamic areawide Road traffic NoisE simulator-DRONE. This traffic-noise-GIS based integrated tool is upgraded to predict noise levels in built-up areas. The integration of traffic simulation with a noise model provides dynamic access to traffic flow characteristics and hence automated and detailed predictions of traffic noise. The prediction is not only on the spatial scale but also on temporal scale. The linkage with GIS gives a visual representation to noise pollution in the form of dynamic areawide traffic noise contour maps. The application of DRONE on a real world built-up area is also presented.

Validation of the MEASURE automobile emissions model : a statistical analysis

The Mobile Emissions Assessment System for Urban and Regional Evaluation (MEASURE) model provides an external validation capability for hot stabilized option; the model is one of several new modal emissions models designed to predict hot stabilized emission rates for various motor vehicle groups as a function of the conditions under which the vehicles are operating. The validation of aggregate measurements, such as speed and acceleration profile, is performed on an independent data set using three statistical criteria. The MEASURE algorithms have proved to provide significant improvements in both average emission estimates and explanatory power over some earlier models for pollutants across almost every operating cycle tested.

Work integrated learning as a component of the capstone experience in undergraduate law

Background: The “Curriculum renewal in legal education” project has been funded by the Australian Learning and Teaching Council with the core objectives being the articulation of a set of final year curriculum design principles, and the development of a model of a transferable final year program. Through these principles and the development of the model, it is anticipated that the final year experience for law students will provide greater opportunity for them to understand the relevance of their learning, and will enhance their capacity to make decisions regarding their career path. Discussion / Argument: This paper reports on the project’s progress to date, and presents an argument for the inclusion of work integrated learning (WIL) as a component of the final year experience in undergraduate law programs. The project has identified that the two principal objectives of capstone experiences are to provide closure and to facilitate transition to post-university life. Reflective practice and Bruner’s spiral curriculum model are the central theoretical foundations by which these objectives can be achieved. Experiential learning is also increasingly seen as an essential element of a capstone experience. WIL is consistent with the objectives of capstones in focusing on the transition to professional practice and providing opportunities for reflection. However, the ability of WIL to meet all of the objectives of capstones, particularly closure and integration, may be limited. Conclusions / Implications: The paper posits that while WIL should be considered as a potential component of a capstone experience, educators should ensure that WIL is not equated with a capstone experience unless it is carefully designed to ensure that all of the objectives of capstones are met. Keywords: Work-integrated learning, capstone, final year experience, law

Reliability prediction using the non-parametric explicit hazard model : a case study

Survival probability prediction using covariate-based hazard approach is a known statistical methodology in engineering asset health management. We have previously reported the semi-parametric Explicit Hazard Model (EHM) which incorporates three types of information: population characteristics; condition indicators; and operating environment indicators for hazard prediction. This model assumes the baseline hazard has the form of the Weibull distribution. To avoid this assumption, this paper presents the non-parametric EHM which is a distribution-free covariate-based hazard model. In this paper, an application of the non-parametric EHM is demonstrated via a case study. In this case study, survival probabilities of a set of resistance elements using the non-parametric EHM are compared with the Weibull proportional hazard model and traditional Weibull model. The results show that the non-parametric EHM can effectively predict asset life using the condition indicator, operating environment indicator, and failure history.