885 resultados para Implied volatility


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This paper evaluates skills for managing ethno-religious diversity in the context of regeneration, spatial planning and the pursuit of sustainable communities. It draws on experiences in Northern Ireland to explore the type and range of skills required in a society emerging from prolonged conflict and residential segregation. The paper concludes by highlighting the need for a more direct political engagement with agnostic practice that challenges the technical reductionism implied in generic skills frameworks. Here, the implications for practice outside the region are identified.

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Initial findings from high-latitude ice-cores implied a relatively unvarying Holocene climate, in contrast to the major climate swings in the preceding late-Pleistocene. However, several climate archives from low latitudes imply a less than equable Holocene climate, as do recent studies on peat bogs in mainland north-west Europe, which indicate an abrupt climate cooling 2800 years ago, with parallels claimed in a range of climate archives elsewhere. A hypothesis that this claimed climate shift was global, and caused by reduced solar activity, has recently been disputed. Until now, no directly comparable data were available from the southern hemisphere to help resolve the dispute. Building on investigations of the vegetation history of an extensive mire in the Valle de Andorra, Tierra del Fuego, we took a further peat core from the bog to generate a high-resolution climate history through the use of determination of peat hurnification and quantitative leaf-count plant macrofossil analysis. Here, we present the new proxy-climate data from the bog in South America. The data are directly comparable with those in Europe, as they were produced using identical laboratory methods. They show that there was a major climate perturbation at the same time as in northwest European bogs. Its timinia, nature and apparent global synchronicity lend support to the notion of solar forcing of past climate change, amplified by oceanic circulation. This finding of a similar response simultaneously in both hemispheres may help validate and improve global climate models. That reduced solar activity might cause a global climatic change suggests that attention be paid also to consideration of any global climate response to increases in solar activity. This has implications for interpreting the relative contribution of climate drivers of recent 'global warming'. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

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Background: Drug scenes within several countries have changed in recent years to incorporate a range of licit psychoactive products, collectively known as “legal highs.” Hundreds of different legal high products have been described in the literature. Many of these products contain synthetic stimulants that allegedly
“mirror” the effects of some illicit drugs. In 2009–2010, growing concern by the UK and Irish governments focused on mephedrone, a synthetic stimulant that had become embedded within several drug scenes in Britain and Ireland. In April 2010, mephedrone and related cathinone derivatives were banned under
the UK’s Misuse of Drugs Act 1971. Setting aside “worse case scenarios” that have been portrayed by UK and Irish media, little is known about mephedrone use from the consumer’s perspective. The purpose of this paper was to (1) explore respondents’ experiences with mephedrone, (2) examine users’ perceptions
about the safety of mephedrone, and primarily to (3) examine sources of mephedrone supply during the pre- and post-ban periods.
Methods: Semi-structured interviews were conducted with 23 adults who had used mephedrone during 2009–2010. Data collection occurred in May and June 2010, following the ban on mephedrone. A total of 20/23 respondents had used mephedrone during the post-ban period, and the vast majority had prior
experience with ecstasy or cocaine. Respondents’ ages ranged from 19 to 51, approximately half of the sample were female and the majority (19 of 23) were employed in full- or part-time work.
Results: Most respondents reported positive experiences with mephedrone, and for some, the substance emerged as a drug of choice. None of the respondents reported that the once-legal status of mephedrone implied that it was safe to use. Very few respondents reported purchasing mephedrone from street-based
or on-line headshops during the pre-ban period, and these decisions were guided in part by respondents’ attempts to avoid “drug user” identities. Most respondents purchased or obtained mephedrone from friends or dealers, and mephedrone was widely available during the 10-week period following the ban. Respondents reported a greater reliance on dealers and a change in mephedrone packaging following the criminalisation of mephedrone.
Conclusion: The findings are discussed in the context of what appears to be a rapidly changing mephedrone market. We discuss the possible implications of criminalising mephedrone, including the potential displacement effects and the development of an illicit market.

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The paper extends Blackburn and Galindev's (Economics Letters, Vol. 79 (2003), pp. 417-421) stochastic growth model in which productivity growth entails both external and internal learning behaviour with a constant relative risk aversion utility function and productivity shocks. Consequently, the relationship between long-term growth and short-term volatility depends not only on the relative importance of each learning mechanism but also on a parameter measuring individuals' attitude towards risk.

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Based on an algorithm for pattern matching in character strings, we implement a pattern matching machine that searches for occurrences of patterns in multidimensional time series. Before the search process takes place, time series are encoded in user-designed alphabets. The patterns, on the other hand, are formulated as regular expressions that are composed of letters from these alphabets and operators. Furthermore, we develop a genetic algorithm to breed patterns that maximize a user-defined fitness function. In an application to financial data, we show that patterns bred to predict high exchange rates volatility in training samples retain statistically significant predictive power in validation samples.

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It is becoming increasingly evident that jellyfish (Cnidaria: Scyphozoa) play an important role within marine ecosystems, yet our knowledge of their seasonality and reproductive strategies is far from complete. Here, we explore a number of life history hypotheses for three common, yet poorly understood scyphozoan jellyfish (Rhizostoma octopus; Chrysaora hysoscella; Cyanea capillata) found throughout the Irish and Celtic Seas. Specifically, we tested whether (1) the bell diameter/wet weight of stranded medusae increased over time in a manner that suggested a single synchronised reproductive cohort; or (2) whether the range of sizes/weights remained broad throughout the stranding period suggesting the protracted release of ephyrae over many months. Stranding data were collected at five sites between 2003 and 2006 (n = 431 surveys; n = 2401 jellyfish). The relationship between bell diameter and wet weight was determined for each species (using fresh specimens collected at sea) so that estimates of wet weight could also be made for stranded individuals. For each species, the broad size and weight ranges of stranded jellyfish implied that the release of ephyrae may be protracted (albeit to different extents) in each species, with individuals of all sizes present in the water column during the summer months. For R. octopus, there was a general increase in both mean bell diameter and wet weight from January through to June which was driven by an increase in the variance and overall range of both variables during the summer. Lastly, we provide further evidence that rhizostome jellyfish may over-wintering as pelagic medusa which we hypothesise may enable them to capitalise on prey available earlier in the year.

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We propose a new approach for modeling nonlinear multivariate interest rate processes based on time-varying copulas and reducible stochastic differential equations (SDEs). In the modeling of the marginal processes, we consider a class of nonlinear SDEs that are reducible to Ornstein--Uhlenbeck (OU) process or Cox, Ingersoll, and Ross (1985) (CIR) process. The reducibility is achieved via a nonlinear transformation function. The main advantage of this approach is that these SDEs can account for nonlinear features, observed in short-term interest rate series, while at the same time leading to exact discretization and closed-form likelihood functions. Although a rich set of specifications may be entertained, our exposition focuses on a couple of nonlinear constant elasticity volatility (CEV) processes, denoted as OU-CEV and CIR-CEV, respectively. These two processes encompass a number of existing models that have closed-form likelihood functions. The transition density, the conditional distribution function, and the steady-state density function are derived in closed form as well as the conditional and unconditional moments for both processes. In order to obtain a more flexible functional form over time, we allow the transformation function to be time varying. Results from our study of U.S. and UK short-term interest rates suggest that the new models outperform existing parametric models with closed-form likelihood functions. We also find the time-varying effects in the transformation functions statistically significant. To examine the joint behavior of interest rate series, we propose flexible nonlinear multivariate models by joining univariate nonlinear processes via appropriate copulas. We study the conditional dependence structure of the two rates using Patton (2006a) time-varying symmetrized Joe--Clayton copula. We find evidence of asymmetric dependence between the two rates, and that the level of dependence is positively related to the level of the two rates. (JEL: C13, C32, G12) Copyright The Author 2010. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oxfordjournals.org, Oxford University Press.

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Bundles of 90° stripe domains have been observed to form into distinct groups, or bands, in mesoscale BaTiO3 single crystal dots. Vector piezoresponse force microscopy (PFM) shows that each band region, when considered as a single entity, possesses a resolved polarization that lies approximately along the pseudocubic direction; antiparallel alignment of this resultant polarization in adjacent bands means that these regions can be considered as 180° “superdomains.” For dots with sidewall dimensions below ~2 microns, Landau–Kittel like scaling in the width of these superdomains was observed, strongly suggesting that they form in response to lateral depolarizing fields. In larger dot structures, scaling laws break down. We have rationalized these observations by considering changes in the driving force for the adoption of equilibrium superdomain periodicities implied by Landau–Kittel-free energy models; we conclude that the formation of ordered bands of superdomains is a uniquely meso/nanoscale phenomenon. We also note that the superdomain bands found by PFM imaging in air contrast with the quadrant arrangements seen previously by Schilling et al. (Nano Lett., 9, 3359 (2009)) through transmission electron microscopy imaging in vacuum. The importance of the exact nature of the boundary conditions in determining the domain patterns that spontaneously form in nanostructures is therefore clearly implied.

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Aims. The aim of this study is to examine if the well-known chemical gradient in TMC-1 is reflected in the amount of rudimentary forms of carbon available in the gas-phase. As a tracer we use the CH radical which is supposed to be well correlated with carbon atoms and simple hydrocarbon ions. Methods. We observed the 9-cm ?-doubling lines of CH along the dense filament of TMC-1. The CH column densities were compared with the total H2 column densities derived using the 2MASS NIR data and previously published SCUBA maps and with OH column densities derived using previous observations with Effelsberg. We also modelled the chemical evolution of TMC-1 adopting physical conditions typical of dark clouds using the UMIST Database for Astrochemistry gas-phase reaction network to aid the interpretation of the observed OH/CH abundance ratios. Results. The CH column density has a clear peak in the vicinity of the cyanopolyyne maximum of TMC-1. The fractional CH abundance relative to H2 increases steadily from the northwestern end of the filament where it lies around 1.0 × 10-8 , to the southeast where it reaches a value of 2.0 × 10-8. The OH and CH column densities are well correlated, and we obtained OH/CH abundance ratios of ~16–20. These values are clearly larger than what has been measured recently in diffuse interstellar gas and is likely to be related to C to CO conversion at higher densities. The good correlation between CH and OH can be explained by similar production and destruction pathways. We suggest that the observed CH and OH abundance gradients are mainly due to enhanced abundances in a low-density envelope which becomes more prominent in the southeastern part and seems to continue beyond the dense filament. Conclusions. An extensive envelope probably signifies an early stage of dynamical evolution, and conforms with the detection of a large CH abundance in the southeastern part of the cloud. The implied presence of other simple forms of carbon in the gas phase provides a natural explanation for the observation of “early-type” molecules in this region.

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Background: Although horizontal gene transfer plays a pivotal role in bacteriophage evolution, many lytic phage genomes are clearly shaped by vertical evolution. We investigated the influence of minor genomic deletions and insertions on various phage-related phenotypic and serological properties. Findings. We collected ten different isolates of Pseudomonas aeruginosa bacteriophage KMV. All sequenced genomes (42-43 kb, long direct terminal repeats) are nearly identical, which intuitively implied strongly similar infections cycles. However, their latent periods vary between 21 and 28 minutes and they are able to lyse between 5 and 58% of a collection of 107 clinical P. aeruginosa strains. We also noted that phages with identical tail structures displayed profound differences in host spectra. Moreover, point mutations in tail and spike proteins were sufficient to evade neutralization by two phage-specific antisera, isolated from rabbits. Conclusion: Although all analyzed phages are 83-97% identical at the genome level, they display a surprisingly large variation in various phenotypic properties. The small overlap in host spectrum and their ability to readily escape immune defences against a nearly identical phage are promising elements for the application of these phages in phage therapy. © 2011 Ceyssens et al; licensee BioMed Central Ltd.


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The efficacies of putative fasciolicides and vaccines against Fasciola hepatica are frequently monitored in clinical and field trials by determination of fluke egg output in host faeces and by worm counts in the host liver at autopsy. Less often used are parameters based on fluke size and histology, yet these can provide important indications of specific effects on the development of particular germ-line or somatic tissues, especially in relation to the timing and profligacy of egg production. In this study. F. hepatica metacercariae of two distinct isolates, the triclabendazole (TCBZ)-sensitive Cullompton isolate and the TCBZ-resistant Oberon isolate, were administered to rats as single-isolate or mixed-isolate infections. At autopsy 16 weeks later individual adult flukes were counted, measured and the reproductive organs were examined histologically. The degree of development of the testis tubules in each fluke was represented by a numerical score, based on the proportion of the histological section profiles occupied by testis tissue. The level of anti-F. hepatica antibody in the serum of each rat was determined by ELISA. It was found that Cullompton flukes were significantly larger than Oberon flukes, and that significantly more Cullompton metacercariae developed to adults than Oberon metacercariae. The Cullompton flukes showed histological evidence of aspermy and spermatogenic arrest, which was reflected in quantitatively reduced testicular development, as compared with the Oberon isolate. In Cullompton flukes, parthenogenetic egg development is implied. The size of Cullompton and Oberon flukes was significantly related to the number of adult flukes recovered, to the number of metacercariae administered, and to the percentage success of infection. The testis development score in both isolates was significantly related to the number of adult flukes recovered but not to the number of metacercariae administered, or to the percentage success of infection. Fluke size was positively related to testis score for both isolates, and a significant negative relationship was found between percentage success of infection and metacercarial dose. The results are interpreted in terms of differing interactions between various numbers of young flukes and host immunity during invasion of and migration in the hepatic parenchyma, and of fluke intra-specific (possibly pheromonal) stimulatory effects in the final stages of development, within the host bile ducts. No significant relationships were found between host antibody levels and fluke size or testis score. False positive serological reactions were found in some rats that had been infected, but found to harbour no flukes at autopsy. Clearly the act of eliminating the flukes involved generation of an immune response. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

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Multidrug resistance (MDR) occurs when bacteria simultaneously acquire resistance to a broad spectrum of structurally dissimilar compounds to which they have not previously been exposed. MDR is principally a consequence of the active transport of drugs out of the cell by proteins that are integral membrane transporters. We characterised and purified the putative Escherichia coli MDR transporter, MdtM, a 410 amino acid residue protein that belongs to the large and ubiquitous major facilitator superfamily. Functional characterisation of MdtM using growth inhibition and whole cell transport assays revealed its role in intrinsic resistance of E. coli cells to the antimicrobials ethidium bromide and chloramphenicol. Site-directed mutagenesis studies implied that the MdtM aspartate 22 residue and the highly conserved arginine at position 108 play a role in proton recognition. MdtM was homologously overexpressed and purified to homogeneity in dodecyl maltopyranoside detergent solution and the oligomeric state and stability of the protein in a variety of detergent solutions was investigated using size-exclusion HPLC. Purified MdtM is monomeric and stable in dodecyl maltopyranoside solution and binds chloramphenicol with nanomolar affinity in the same detergent. This work provides a firm foundation for structural studies on this class of multidrug transporter protein.

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We present new optical and near-infrared (NIR) photometry and spectroscopy of the Type IIP supernova (SN), SN 2004et. In combination with already published data, this provides one of the most complete studies of optical and NIR data for any Type IIP SN from just after explosion to +500 d. The contribution of the NIR flux to the bolometric light curve is estimated to increase from 15 per cent at explosion to around 50 per cent at the end of the plateau and then declines to 40 per cent at 300 d. SN 2004et is one of the most luminous IIP SNe which has been well studied and characterized, and with a luminosity of log L = 42.3 erg s-1 and a 56Ni mass of 0.06 +/- 0.04 M-circle dot, it is two times brighter than SN 1999em. We provide parametrized bolometric corrections as a function of time since explosion for SN 2004et and three other IIP SNe that have extensive optical and NIR data. These can be used as templates for future events in optical and NIR surveys without full wavelength coverage. We compare the physical parameters of SN 2004et with those of other well-studied IIP SNe and find that the kinetic energies span a range of 1050-1051 erg. We compare the ejected masses calculated from hydrodynamic models with the progenitor masses and limits derived from pre-discovery images. Some of the ejected mass estimates are significantly higher than the progenitor mass estimates, with SN 2004et showing perhaps the most serious mass discrepancy. With the current models, it appears difficult to reconcile 100 d plateau lengths and high expansion velocities with the low ejected masses of 5-6 M-circle dot implied from 7-8 M-circle dot progenitors. The nebular phase is studied using very late-time Hubble Space Telescope photometry, along with optical and NIR spectroscopy. The light curve shows a clear flattening at 600 d in the optical and the NIR, which is likely due to the ejecta impacting on circumstellar material. We further show that the [O i] 6300, 6364 A line strengths in the nebular spectra of four Type IIP SNe imply ejected oxygen masses of 0.5-1.5 M-circle dot.

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We have studied the optical spectra of a sample of 28 O- and early B-type stars in the Large Magellanic Cloud, 22 of which are associated with the young star forming region N11. Our observations sample the central associations of LH9 and LH10, and the surrounding regions. Stellar parameters are determined using an automated fitting method ( Mokiem et al. 2005), which combines the stellar atmosphere code fastwind ( Puls et al. 2005) with the genetic algorithm based optimisation routine PIKAIA ( Charbonneau 1995). We derive an age of 7.0 +/- 1.0 and 3.0 +/- 1.0 Myr for LH9 and LH10, respectively. The age difference and relative distance of the associations are consistent with a sequential star formation scenario in which stellar activity in LH9 triggered the formation of LH10. Our sample contains four stars of spectral type O2. From helium and hydrogen line fitting we find the hottest three of these stars to be similar to 49- 54 kK ( compared to similar to 45- 46 kK for O3 stars). Detailed determination of the helium mass fraction reveals that the masses of helium enriched dwarfs and giants derived in our spectroscopic analysis are systematically lower than those implied by non-rotating evolutionary tracks. We interpret this as evidence for efficient rotationally enhanced mixing leading to the surfacing of primary helium and to an increase of the stellar luminosity. This result is consistent with findings for SMC stars by Mokiem et al. ( 2006). For bright giants and supergiants no such mass discrepancy is found; these stars therefore appear to follow tracks of modestly or non-rotating objects. The set of programme stars was sufficiently large to establish the mass loss rates of OB stars in this Z similar to 1/2 Z(circle dot) environment sufficiently accurate to allow for a quantitative comparison with similar objects in the Galaxy and the SMC. The mass loss properties are found to be intermediate to massive stars in the Galaxy and SMC. Comparing the derived modified wind momenta D-mom as a function of luminosity with predictions for LMC metallicities by Vink et al. ( 2001) yields good agreement in the entire luminosity range that was investigated, i.e. 5.0