Housing provision in 21st century Europe

European housing markets exhibited considerable volatility so far in the 21st century while affordability worsened for many. Boom-bust has had greater housing impacts than any specific housing policy, which illustrates the difficulty in policy terms of seeing housing in isolation and the central significance of interlinked relationships between housing, the economy and financial markets. Europe historically invented a powerful set of interventionist tools to alter housing circumstances but, as the overview of rental markets here indicates, today they have mixed success. Examples of what to avoid in policy are at least as common as exemplars.

STABILITY ANALYSIS WITH APPLICATIONS OF A TWO-DIMENSIONAL DYNAMICAL SYSTEM ARISING FROM A STOCHASTIC MODEL FOR AN ASSET MARKET

We analyze the stability properties of equilibrium solutions and periodicity of orbits in a two-dimensional dynamical system whose orbits mimic the evolution of the price of an asset and the excess demand for that asset. The construction of the system is grounded upon a heterogeneous interacting agent model for a single risky asset market. An advantage of this construction procedure is that the resulting dynamical system becomes a macroscopic market model which mirrors the market quantities and qualities that would typically be taken into account solely at the microscopic level of modeling. The system`s parameters correspond to: (a) the proportion of speculators in a market; (b) the traders` speculative trend; (c) the degree of heterogeneity of idiosyncratic evaluations of the market agents with respect to the asset`s fundamental value; and (d) the strength of the feedback of the population excess demand on the asset price update increment. This correspondence allows us to employ our results in order to infer plausible causes for the emergence of price and demand fluctuations in a real asset market. The employment of dynamical systems for studying evolution of stochastic models of socio-economic phenomena is quite usual in the area of heterogeneous interacting agent models. However, in the vast majority of the cases present in the literature, these dynamical systems are one-dimensional. Our work is among the few in the area that construct and study analytically a two-dimensional dynamical system and apply it for explanation of socio-economic phenomena.

Trade effects of exchange rate fluctuations: Evidence from Sweden

An overview of the theoretical literature for the last two decades suggests that there is no clear-cut relationship one can pin down between exchange rate volatility and trade flows. Analytical results are based on specific assumptions and only hold in certain cases. Especially, the impact of exchange rate volatility on export and import activity investigated separately leads also to dissimilar conclusions among countries studied. The general presumption is that an increase in exchange rate volatility will have an adverse effect on trade flows and consequently, the overall heath of the world economy. However, neither theoretical models nor empirical studies provide us with a definitive answer, leaving obtained results highly ambiguous and inconsistent (Baum and Caglayan, 2006). We purposed to empirically investigate trade effects of exchange rate fluctuations in Sweden from the perspective of export and import in this research. The data comprises period from January 1993 to December 2006, where export and import volumes are considered from the point of their determinants, including exchange rate volatility, which has been measured through EGARCH model. The results for the case of Sweden show that short run dynamics of volatility negatively associated with both export and import, whereas considered from the case of previous period volatility it exhibits positive relationship. These results are consistent with the most findings of prior studies, where the relationship remained ambiguous.

IT­-Forensisk undersökning av flyktigt minne : På Linux och Android enheter

Att kunna gör en effektiv undersökning av det flyktiga minnet är något som blir viktigare ochviktigare i IT-forensiska utredningar. Dels under Linux och Windows baserade PC installationermen också för mobila enheter i form av Android och enheter baserade andra mobila opperativsy-stem.Android använder sig av en modifierad Linux-kärna var modifikationer är för att anpassa kärnantill de speciella krav som gäller för ett mobilt operativsystem. Dessa modifikationer innefattardels meddelandehantering mellan processer men även ändringar till hur internminnet hanteras ochövervakas.Då dessa två kärnor är så pass nära besläktade kan samma grundläggande principer användas föratt dumpa och undersöka minne. Dumpningen sker via en kärn-modul vilket i den här rapportenutgörs av en programvara vid namn LiME vilken kan hantera bägge kärnorna.Analys av minnet kräver att verktygen som används har en förståelse för minneslayouten i fråga.Beroende på vilken metod verktyget använder så kan det även behövas information om olika sym-boler. Verktyget som används i det här examensarbetet heter Volatility och klarar på papperet avatt extrahera all den information som behövs för att kunna göra en korrekt undersökning.Arbetet avsåg att vidareutveckla existerande metoder för analys av det flyktiga minnet på Linux-baserade maskiner (PC) och inbyggda system(Android). Problem uppstod då undersökning avflyktigt minne på Android och satta mål kunde inte uppnås fullt ut. Det visade sig att minnesanalysriktat emot PC-plattformen är både enklare och smidigare än vad det är mot Android.

Thick viewing : empirical examples of condensed moments of narrative impact in fiction film developing theoretical concepts for intensified engagements

Abstract  In a case study about viewing habits in a Swedish audience I sampled 309 questionnaires; interviews with five focus group were conducted together with ten in-depth individual interviews discussing altogether fifteen favorite films exploring specific scenes of idiosyncratic relevance.  The outcome supports claims about viewers as active and playful (cf. Höijer 1998, Frampton 2006, Hoover 2006, Plantinga 2009). In line with mediatization theory I also argue that spiritual meaning making takes place through mediated experiences and I support theories about fiction films as important sources for moral and spiritual reflection (Partridge 2004, Zillman 2005, Lynch 2007, Plantinga 2009). What Hjarvard calls the soft side of mediatization processes (2008) is illustrated showing adults experiencing enchantment through favorite films (Jerslev 2006, Partridge 2008, Klinger 2008, Oliver & Hartmann 2010).  Vernacular meaning making embedded in everyday life and spectators dealing with fiction narratives such as Gladiator, Amelie from Montmartre or Avatar highlights the need for a more nuanced understanding of elevated cinematic experiences. The reported impact of specific movies is analyzed through theories where cognition and affect are central aspects of spectators’ engagements with a film (Tan 1996, Caroll 1999, Grodal 2009). Crucially important are theories of meaning-making where viewers’ detailed interpretation of specific scenes are embedded in high-level meaning-making where world view issues and spectators’ moral frameworks are activated (Zillman 2005, Andersson & Andersson 2005, Frampton 2006, Lynch 2007, Avila 2007, Axelson 2008, Plantinga 2009).  Also results from a growing body of empirical oriented research in film studies are relevant with an interest in what happens with the flesh and blood spectator exposed to filmic narratives (Jerslev 2006, Klinger 2008, Barker 2009, Suckfüll 2010, Oliver & Hartmann 2010). Analyzing the qualitative results of my case study, I want to challenge the claim that the viewer has to suspend higher order reflective cognitive structures in order to experience suture (Butler & Palesh 2004). What I find in my empirical examples is responses related to spectators’ highest levels of mental activity, all anchored in the sensual-emotional apparatus (Grodal 2009). My outcome is in line with a growing number of empirical case studies which support conclusions that both thinking and behavior are affected by film watching (Marsh 2007, Sückfull 2010, Oliver & Hartmann 2010, Axelson forthcoming). The presentation contributes to a development of concepts which combines aesthetic, affective and cognitive components in an investigation of spectator’s moves from emotional evaluation of intra-text narration to extra-textual assessments, testing the narrative for larger significance in idiosyncratic ways (Bordwell & Thompson 1997, Marsh 2007, Johnston 2007, Bruun Vaage 2009, Axelson 2011). There are a several profitable concepts suggested to embrace the complex interplay between affects, cognition and emotions when individuals respond to fictional narratives. Robert K. Johnston label it “deepening gaze” (2007: 307) and “transformative viewing” (2007: 305). Philosopher Mitch Avila proposes “high cognition” (2007: 228) and Casper Thybjerg ”higher meaning” (2008: 60). Torben Grodal talks about “feelings of deep meaning” (Grodal 2009: 149). With a nod to Clifford Geertz, Craig Detweiler adopts “thick description” (2007: 47) as do Kutter Callaway altering it to ”thick interpretations” (Callaway 2013: 203).  Frampton states it in a paradox; ”affective intelligence” (Frampton 2006: 166). As a result of the empirical investigation, inspired by Geertz, Detweiler & Callaway, I advocate thick viewing for capturing the viewing process of these specific moments of film experience when profound and intensified emotional interpretations take place. The author As a sociologist of religion, Tomas Axelsons research deals with people’s use of mediated narratives to make sense of reality in a society characterized by individualization, mediatization and pluralized world views.  He explores uses of fiction film as a resource in every day life and he is currently finishing his three year project funded by the Swedish Research Council: Spectator engagement in film and utopian self-reflexivity. Moving Images and Moved Minds. http://www.du.se/sv/AVM/Personal/Tomas-Axelson Bibliography Axelson, T. (Forthcoming 2014). Den rörliga bildens förmåga att beröra.[1] Stockholm: Liber Axelson, T. (In peer review). Vernacular Meaning Making. Examples of narrative impact in fiction film questioning the ’banal’ notion in mediatization theory. Nordicom Review. Nordicom Göteborg. Axelson, T. (2011). Människans behov av fiktion. Den rörliga bildens förmåga att beröra människan på djupet.[2]Kulturella perspektiv. Volume 2. Article retrieved from www.kultmed.umu.se/digitalAssets/74/74304_axelson-22011.pdf Axelson, Tomas (2010) “Narration, Visualization and Mind. Movies in everyday life as a resource for utopian self-reflection.” Paper presentation at CMRC, 7th Conference of Media, Religion & Culture in Toronto, Canada 9 – 13th August 2010. Axelson, Tomas (2008) Movies and Meaning. Studying Audience, Favourite Films and Existential Matters. Particip@tions : Journal of Audience and Reception Studies. Volume 5, (1). Doctoral dissertation summary. ACTA UNIVERSITATIS UPSALIENSIS. Article retrieved from http://www.participations.org/Volume%205/Issue%201%20-%20special/5_01_axelson.htm  [1] English translation: Moving Images and Moved Minds. [2] English translation: Our need for fiction. Deeply Moved by Moving Images. Cultural Perspectives.

Vernacular meaning making : Examples of narrative impact in fiction film questioning the 'banal' notion in mediatization of religion theory

The outcome of an audience study supports theories stating that stories are a primary means by which we make sense of our experiences over time. Empirical examples of narrative impact are presented in which specific fiction film scenes condense spectators' lives, identities and beliefs. One conclusion is that spectators test the emotional realism of the narative for greater significance, connecting diegetic fiction experiences with their extra-diegetic world in their quest for meaning, self and identity. The 'banal' notion of the mediatization of religion theory is questioned as unsatisfactory in the theoretical context of individualized meaning-making processes. As a semantically negatively charged concept, it is problematic when analyzing empirical examples of spectators' use of fictional narratives, especially when trying to characterize the idiosyncratic and complex interplay between spectators' fiction emotions and their testing of mediated narratives in an exercise to find moral significance in extra-filmic life. Instead vernacular meaning-making is proposed.

Photochemical Generation and Intramolecular Chemistry of β-Alkoxycarbenes

The photolytic phenanthrene-based precursors for both β-methoxycarbene and β-ethoxycarbene were synthesized with and without a deuterium label attached to the a carbon. The incorporation of this deuterium label allowed distinction between a 1, 2-H shift and a 1, 2-O shift pathway to the respective alkyl vinyl ether, without the influence of a primary kinetic isotope effect. Photolyses of these precursors gave rearrangement products of the expected β-alkoxycarbenes. In the case of β-methoxycarbene, no methyl vinyl ether was observed due to its volatility. However, the appearance of aldehyde peaks in the NMR spectra, from an apparent further rearrangement to acetaldehyde through an enol intermediate, indicated that a 1,2-H shift had occurred. Ethyl vinyl ether was isolated following the photolysis of the β-ethoxycarbene precursor. Quantification of the two pathways showed less than 2% undergoing an ethoxy shift to the ethyl vinyl ether. Yield experiments on this photolysis demonstrated a maximum yield of β-ethoxycarbene as 43%, though this decreased as the experiment continued. Computational work on the β-ethoxycarbene system indicates that the triplet scate is more stable than the singlet. In addition, the activation energy to the 1.2-H shift pathway is remarkably low and is clearly consistent with the observed overwhelming preference for this pathway in the experiment.

Um modelo de competição baseada em tempo nos mercados financeiros

O objetivo deste trabalho é modelar o comportamento estratégico dos indivíduos diante de um choque estocástico que desloca o preço de determinado ativo financeiro do seu equilíbrio inicial. Investiga-se o caminho do preço de mercado em direção ao novo equilíbrio, conduzido pelas sucessivas negociações dos agentes em busca de oportunidades de obter lucros imediatos. Os operadores, que por suposição possuem funções de utilidade avessas ao risco, devem escolher a quantidade ótima transacionada e quanto devem aguardar para executar as suas ordens, tendo em vista a diminuição da volatilidade do preço do ativo à medida que as transações se sucedem após o choque. Procura-se demonstrar que os operadores que aceitam incorrer em riscos mais elevados negociam com maior frequência e em volumes e velocidades maiores, usufruindo lucros esperados mais altos que os demais.

The trasition from fixed to floating exchange rate regimes: the case of Brazil

This dissertation evaluates macroeconomic management in Brazil from 1994 to the present, with particular focus on exchange rate policy. It points out that while Brazil's Real Plan succeeded in halting the hyperinflation that had reached more than 2000 percent in 1993, it also caused significant real appreciation of the exchange rate situation that was only made worse by the extremely high interest rates and ensuing bout of severe financial crises in the intemational arena. By the end of 1998, the accumulation of internai and externai imbalances led the authorities to drop foreign exchange controls and allow the currency to float. In spite of some initial scepticism, the flexible rate regime cum inflation target proved to work well. Inflation was kept under control; the current account position improved significantly, real interest rates fell and GDP growth resumed. Thus, while great challenges still lie ahead, the recent successes bestow some optimism on the well functioning of this exchange rate regime. The Brazilian case suggests that successful transition from one foreign exchange system to another, particularly during financial crisis, does not depend only on one variable be it fiscal or monetary. In reality, it depends on whole set of co-ordinated policies aimed at resuming price stability with as little exchange rate and output volatility as possible.

Nonparametric specification tests for conditional duration models

This paper deals with the testing of autoregressive conditional duration (ACD) models by gauging the distance between the parametric density and hazard rate functions implied by the duration process and their non-parametric estimates. We derive the asymptotic justification using the functional delta method for fixed and gamma kernels, and then investigate the finite-sample properties through Monte Carlo simulations. Although our tests display some size distortion, bootstrapping suffices to correct the size without compromising their excellent power. We show the practical usefulness of such testing procedures for the estimation of intraday volatility patterns.

Foreign direct investment spillovers in Portugal: additional lessons from a country study

This paper investigates the impact of FDI on the productivity of Portuguese manufacturing sectors. Model specification is improved by considering the choice of the most appropriate interval of the technological gap for spillovers diffusion. We also allow for sectoral variation in the coefficients of the spillover effect; idiosyncratic sectoral factors are identified by means of a fixed effects model. Inter-sectoral positive spillover effects are examined. Significant spillovers require a proper technological differential between foreign and domestic producers and favourable sectoral characteristics. They may occur in modern industries in which the foreign firms have a clear, but not too sharp, edge on the domestic ones. Agglomeration effects are also one pertinent specific influence.

Speculative attacks on debts and optimum currency area: a welfare analysis

Traditionally the issue of an optimum currency area is based on the theoretical underpinnings developed in the 1960s by McKinnon [13], Kenen [12] and mainly Mundell [14], who is concerned with the benefits of lowering transaction costs vis-à- vis adjustments to asymmetrical shocks. Recently, this theme has been reappraised with new aspects included in the analysis, such as: incomplete markets, credibility of monetary policy and seigniorage, among others. For instance, Neumeyer [15] develops a general equilibrium model with incomplete asset markets and shows that a monetary union is desirable when the welfare gains of eliminating the exchange rate volatility are greater than the cost of reducing the number of currencies to hedge against risks. In this paper, we also resort to a general equilibrium model to evaluate financial aspects of an optimum currency area. Our focus is to appraise the welfare of a country heavily dependent on foreign capital that may suffer a speculative attack on its public debt. The welfare analysis uses as reference the self-fulfilling debt crisis model of Cole and Kehoe ([6], [7] and [8]), which is employed here to represent dollarization. Under this regime, the national government has no control over its monetary policy, the total public debt is denominated in dollars and it is in the hands of international bankers. To describe a country that is a member of a currency union, we modify the original Cole-Kehoe model by including public debt denominated in common currency, only purchased by national consumers. According to this rule, the member countries regain some influence over the monetary policy decision, which is, however, dependent on majority voting. We show that for specific levels of dollar debt, to create inflation tax on common-currency debt in order to avoid an external default is more desirable than to suspend its payment, which is the only choice available for a dollarized economy when foreign creditors decide not to renew their loans.

Robustness of stationary tests under long-memory alternatives

This paper investigates the presence of long memory in financiaI time series using four test statistics: V/S, KPSS, KS and modified R/S. There has been a large amount of study on the long memory behavior in economic and financiaI time series. However, there is still no consensus. We argue in this paper that spurious short-term memory may be found due to the incorrect use of data-dependent bandwidth to estimating the longrun variance. We propose a partially adaptive lag truncation procedure that is robust against the presence of long memory under the alternative hypothesis and revisit several economic and financiaI time series using the proposed bandwidth choice. Our results indicate the existence of spurious short memory in real exchange rates when Andrews' formula is employed, but long memory is detected when the proposed lag truncation procedure is used. Using stock market data, we also found short memory in returns and long memory in volatility.

Avaliação de Projetos de Investimento com Opções Reais: Cálculo de Valor de Opção de Espera de uma Unidade Separadora de Propeno

O tema central deste trabalho é a avaliação do valor da opção real de espera do investimento em uma Unidade Separadora de Propeno, em comparação com uma análise estática de Valor Presente Líquido. Para isso, foi exposta a teoria de opções reais, os processos estocásticos para a estimação das suas principais variáveis de incerteza (preço de produto e insumo), bem como a descrição das ferramentas de simulação a serem utilizadas. Com os instrumentos expostos, pretendemos demonstrar aos responsáveis por projetos de investimento que as incertezas podem ser medidas, levando a maior flexibilidade na tomada de decisões. Os resultados obtidos apontam para o exercício imediato da opção pela abordagem de ativos contingentes e resultados divergentes na análise de ativos contingentes em função do diferencial de preços, em função da taxa de dividendos adotada. A influência dos valores da volatilidade e da taxa de dividendos nos resultados também foi avaliada, levando à conclusão de que o primeiro gera impactos maiores no valor da opção do que o segundo.

Evaluation of contagion or interdependence in the financial crises of Asia and Latin America, considering the macroeconomic fundamentals

This article investigates the existence of contagion between countries on the basis of an analysis of returns for stock indices over the period 1994-2003. The economic methodology used is that of multivariate GARCH family volatility models, particularly the DCC models in the form proposed by Engle and Sheppard (2001). The returns were duly corrected for a series of country-specific fundamentals. The relevance of this procedure is highlighted in the literature by the work of Pesaran and Pick (2003). The results obtained in this paper provide evidence favourable to the hypothesis of regional contagion in both Latin America and Asia. As a rule, contagion spread from the Asian crisis to Latin America but not in the opposite direction