Prediction of postprandial blood glucose under intra-patient variability and uncertainty and its use in the design of insulin dosing strategies for type 1 diabetic patients

In this thesis I propose a novel method to estimate the dose and injection-to-meal time for low-risk intensive insulin therapy. This dosage-aid system uses an optimization algorithm to determine the insulin dose and injection-to-meal time that minimizes the risk of postprandial hyper- and hypoglycaemia in type 1 diabetic patients. To this end, the algorithm applies a methodology that quantifies the risk of experiencing different grades of hypo- or hyperglycaemia in the postprandial state induced by insulin therapy according to an individual patient’s parameters. This methodology is based on modal interval analysis (MIA). Applying MIA, the postprandial glucose level is predicted with consideration of intra-patient variability and other sources of uncertainty. A worst-case approach is then used to calculate the risk index. In this way, a safer prediction of possible hyper- and hypoglycaemic episodes induced by the insulin therapy tested can be calculated in terms of these uncertainties.

Relação entre a biomecânica e a hidratação cutâneas em indivíduos normoponderais e influência da idade

A pele constitui o maior órgão do corpo humano. As diversas funções cutâneas que conhecemos reúnem-se na sua capacidade de protecção e de adaptação ao contorno corporal. O presente estudo visa comparar parâmetros de hidratação e elasticidade, de forma a determinar de que forma uma poderá influenciar ou ser influenciada pela outra. Para tal, foi selecionada uma amostra de conveniência de 42 voluntárias, do sexo feminino, saudáveis e normoponderais (de acordo com a classificação internacional da OMS). Afunção “barreira” da pele foi caracterizada pela perda transepidérmica de água (Tewameter TM300); a hidratação superficial foi medida através da utilização do Moisturemeter SC e Corneometer; e a função “envelope” foi medida através da utilização do Cutometer MPA580 e Reviscometer RV600. As medições foram efetuadas na face (zona zigomática e fronte), na mama e no abdómen. Os resultados mais significativos demonstram uma influência da idade na alteração dos diversos parâmetros avaliados, de acordo com o que se encontra publicados. Para além disso, parece existir alguma relação entre os parâmetros de hidratação e alguns descritores biomecânicos, a qual deverá ser investigada em estudos futuros.

Hoy empiezo a acordarme de Miguel Donoso Pareja: hiperconciencia de una memoria creativa (Crítica)

La autora lee la novela Hoy empiezo a acordarme, del ecuatoriano Miguel Donoso Pareja, desde la perspectiva de la ficción como un intento –vano–, por parte del narrador, de encontrarse a sí mismo, escritura-travesía hacia un yo que resulta ser siempre “otro”. El personaje pretendería transformar no exclusivamente su realidad, sino la ficción misma en un universo navegable para el lector, la escritura fragmentada en vehículo que no lo lleve a destino alguno, sino a su propio punto de partida. Más que construir una novela de perfección formal, el narrador pretendería involucrar al lector en su propio viaje-búsqueda. Donoso partiría de la escritura como presencia y ausencia, como verdad y mentira, para construir esta novela con historias fragmentadas que se alimentan tanto del recuerdo como del olvido, en un cabal ejercicio de hiperconciencia narrativa.

Stability of a Seabird Population in the Presence of an Introduced Predator

We hypothesized that although large populations may appear able to withstand predation and disturbance, added stochasticity in population growth rate (λ) increases the risk of dramatic population declines. Approximately half of the Aleutian Islands' population of Least Auklets (Aethia pusilla) breed at one large colony at Kiska Island in the presence of introduced Norway rats (Rattus norvegicus) whose population erupts periodically. We evaluated two management plans, do nothing or eradicate rats, for this colony, and performed stochastic elasticity analysis to focus future research and management. Our results indicated that Least Auklets breeding at Kiska Island had the lowest absolute value of growth rate and more variable λ's (neither statistically significant) during 2001-2010, when compared with rat-free colonies at Buldir and Kasatochi islands. We found variability in the annual proportional change in population size among islands with Kiska Island having the fastest rate of decline, 78% over 20 years. Under the assumption that the eradication of rats would result in vital rates similar to those observed at rat-free Buldir and Kasatochi islands, we found the projected population decline decreased from 78% to 24% over 20 years. Overall, eradicating rats at Kiska Island is not likely to increase Least Auklet vital rates, but will decrease the amount of variation in λ, resulting in a significantly slower rate of population decline. We recommend the eradication of rats from Kiska Island to decrease the probability of dramatic population declines and ensure the future persistence of this important colony.

Morphological and molecular characteristics of a new species of Pasteuria parasitic on Meloidogyne ardenensis

A species of the hyper-parasitic bacterium Pasteuria was isolated from the root-knot nematode Meloidogyne ardenensis infecting the roots of ash (Fraxinus excelsior). It is morphologically different from some other Pasteuria pathogens of nematodes in that the spores lack a basal ring on the ventral side of the spore and have a unique clumping nature. Transmission electron microscopy (TEM) showed that the clumps of spores are not random aggregates but result from the disintegration of the suicide cells of the thalli. Sporulation within each vegetative mycelium was shown to be asynchronous. In addition to the novel morphological features 16S rRNA sequence analysis showed this to be a new species of Pasteuria which we have called P. hartismeri. Spores of P. hartismeri attach to juveniles of root-knot nematodes infecting a wide range of plants such as mint (Meloidogyne hapla), rye grass (unidentified Meloidogyne sp.) and potato (Meloidogyne fallax). (c) 2007 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Quantifying the effect of buffer zones, crop areas and spatial aggregation on the externalities of genetically modified crops at landscape level

The development of genetically modified (GM) crops has led the European Union (EU) to put forward the concept of 'coexistence' to give fanners the freedom to plant both conventional and GM varieties. Should a premium for non-GM varieties emerge in the market, 'contamination' by GM pollen would generate a negative externality to conventional growers. It is therefore important to assess the effect of different 'policy variables'on the magnitude of the externality to identify suitable policies to manage coexistence. In this paper, taking GM herbicide tolerant oilseed rape as a model crop, we start from the model developed in Ceddia et al. [Ceddia, M.G., Bartlett, M., Perrings, C., 2007. Landscape gene flow, coexistence and threshold effect: the case of genetically modified herbicide tolerant oilseed rape (Brassica napus). Ecol. Modell. 205, pp. 169-180] use a Monte Carlo experiment to generate data and then estimate the effect of the number of GM and conventional fields, width of buffer areas and the degree of spatial aggregation (i.e. the 'policy variables') on the magnitude of the externality at the landscape level. To represent realistic conditions in agricultural production, we assume that detection of GM material in conventional produce might occur at the field level (no grain mixing occurs) or at the silos level (where grain mixing from different fields in the landscape occurs). In the former case, the magnitude of the externality will depend on the number of conventional fields with average transgenic presence above a certain threshold. In the latter case, the magnitude of the externality will depend on whether the average transgenic presence across all conventional fields exceeds the threshold. In order to quantify the effect of the relevant' policy variables', we compute the marginal effects and the elasticities. Our results show that when relying on marginal effects to assess the impact of the different 'policy variables', spatial aggregation is far more important when transgenic material is detected at field level, corroborating previous research. However, when elasticity is used, the effectiveness of spatial aggregation in reducing the externality is almost identical whether detection occurs at field level or at silos level. Our results show also that the area planted with GM is the most important 'policy variable' in affecting the externality to conventional growers and that buffer areas on conventional fields are more effective than those on GM fields. The implications of the results for the coexistence policies in the EU are discussed. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Seeds of growth? Agricultural productivity and the transitional dynamics of the Ramsey model

A two-sector Ramsey-type model of growth is developed to investigate the relationship between agricultural productivity and economy-wide growth. The framework takes into account the peculiarities of agriculture both in production ( reliance on a fixed natural resource base) and in consumption (life-sustaining role and low income elasticity of food demand). The transitional dynamics of the model establish that when preferences respect Engel's law, the level and growth rate of agricultural productivity influence the speed of capital accumulation. A calibration exercise shows that a small difference in agricultural productivity has drastic implications for the rate and pattern of growth of the economy. Hence, low agricultural productivity can form a bottleneck limiting growth, because high food prices result in a low saving rate.

Time patterns in UK demand for alcohol and tobacco: an application of the EM algorithm

Capturing the pattern of structural change is a relevant task in applied demand analysis, as consumer preferences may vary significantly over time. Filtering and smoothing techniques have recently played an increasingly relevant role. A dynamic Almost Ideal Demand System with random walk parameters is estimated in order to detect modifications in consumer habits and preferences, as well as changes in the behavioural response to prices and income. Systemwise estimation, consistent with the underlying constraints from economic theory, is achieved through the EM algorithm. The proposed model is applied to UK aggregate consumption of alcohol and tobacco, using quarterly data from 1963 to 2003. Increased alcohol consumption is explained by a preference shift, addictive behaviour and a lower price elasticity. The dynamic and time-varying specification is consistent with the theoretical requirements imposed at each sample point. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Shrinking the posterior: A note on the Nerlovian model

Diebold and Lamb (1997) argue that since the long-run elasticity of supply derived from the Nerlovian model entails a ratio of random variables, it is without moments. They propose minimum expected loss estimation to correct this problem but in so-doing ignore the fact that a non white-noise-error is implicit in the model. We show that, as a consequence the estimator is biased and demonstrate that Bayesian estimation which fully accounts for the error structure is preferable.

Evidence of a possible role for Lys-gamma 3-MSH in the regulation of adipocyte function

Lys-gamma 3-MSH is a melanocortin peptide derived from the C-terminal of the 16 kDa fragment of POMC. The physiological role of Lys-gamma 3-MSH is unclear, although it has previously been shown that, although not directly steroidogenic, it can act to potentiate the steroidogenic response of adrenal cortical cells to ACTH. This synergistic effect appears to be correlated with an ability to increase the activity of hormone sensitive lipase (HSL) and therefore the rate of cholesterol ester hydrolysis. Ligand binding studies have suggested that high-affinity binding sites for Lys-gamma 3-MSH exist in the adrenal gland and a number of other rat tissues that express HSL, including adipose, skeletal muscle and testes. To investigate the hypothesis that Lys-gamma 3-MSH may play a wider role in cholesterol and lipid metabolism, we tested the effect of Lys-gamma 3-MSH on lipolysis, an HSL-mediated process, in 3T3-L1 adipocytes. In comparison with other melanocortin peptides, Lys-gamma 3-MSH was found to be a potent stimulator of lipolysis. It was also able to phosphorylate HSL at key serine residues and stimulate the hyper-phosphorylation of perilipin A. The receptor through which the lipolytic actions of Lys-gamma 3-MSH are being mediated is not clear. Attempts to characterise this receptor suggest that either the pharmacology of the melanocortin receptor 5 in 3T3-L1 adipocytes is different from that described when expressed in heterologous systems or the possibility that a further, as yet uncharacterised, receptor exists.

Demographic models and the management of endangered species: a case study of the critically endangered Seychelles magpie robin

1. Demographic models are assuming an important role in management decisions for endangered species. Elasticity analysis and scope for management analysis are two such applications. Elasticity analysis determines the vital rates that have the greatest impact on population growth. Scope for management analysis examines the effects that feasible management might have on vital rates and population growth. Both methods target management in an attempt to maximize population growth. 2. The Seychelles magpie robin Copsychus sechellarum is a critically endangered island endemic, the population of which underwent significant growth in the early 1990s following the implementation of a recovery programme. We examined how the formal use of elasticity and scope for management analyses might have shaped management in the recovery programme, and assessed their effectiveness by comparison with the actual population growth achieved. 3. The magpie robin population doubled from about 25 birds in 1990 to more than 50 by 1995. A simple two-stage demographic model showed that this growth was driven primarily by a significant increase in the annual survival probability of first-year birds and an increase in the birth rate. Neither the annual survival probability of adults nor the probability of a female breeding at age 1 changed significantly over time. 4. Elasticity analysis showed that the annual survival probability of adults had the greatest impact on population growth. There was some scope to use management to increase survival, but because survival rates were already high (> 0.9) this had a negligible effect on population growth. Scope for management analysis showed that significant population growth could have been achieved by targeting management measures at the birth rate and survival probability of first-year birds, although predicted growth rates were lower than those achieved by the recovery programme when all management measures were in place (i.e. 1992-95). 5. Synthesis and applications. We argue that scope for management analysis can provide a useful basis for management but will inevitably be limited to some extent by a lack of data, as our study shows. This means that identifying perceived ecological problems and designing management to alleviate them must be an important component of endangered species management. The corollary of this is that it will not be possible or wise to consider only management options for which there is a demonstrable ecological benefit. Given these constraints, we see little role for elasticity analysis because, when data are available, a scope for management analysis will always be of greater practical value and, when data are lacking, precautionary management demands that as many perceived ecological problems as possible are tackled.

Toughness & cutting: A new way of determining ductile fracture toughness and strength

A review is given of the mechanics of cutting, ranging from the slicing of thin floppy offcuts (where there is negligible elasticity and no permanent deformation of the offcut) to the machining of ductile metals (where there is severe permanent distortion of the offcut/chip). Materials scientists employ the former conditions to determine the fracture toughness of ‘soft’ solids such as biological materials and foodstuffs. In contrast, traditional analyses of metalcutting are based on plasticity and friction only, and do not incorporate toughness. The machining theories are inadequate in a number of ways but a recent paper has shown that when ductile work of fracture is included many, if not all, of the shortcomings are removed. Support for the new analysis is given by examination of FEM simulations of metalcutting which reveal that a ‘separation criterion’ has to be employed at the tool tip. Some consideration shows that the separation criteria are versions of void-initiation-growth-and-coalescence models employed in ductile fracture mechanics. The new analysis shows that cutting forces for ductile materials depend upon the fracture toughness as well as plasticity and friction, and reveals a simple way of determining both toughness and flow stress from cutting experiments. Examples are given for a wide range of materials including metals, polymers and wood, and comparison is made with the same properties independently determined using conventional testpieces. Because cutting can be steady state, a new way is presented for simultaneously measuring toughness and flow stress at controlled speeds and strain rates.