Social security in theory and practice (I): Facts and political theories

166 countries have some kind of public old age pension. What economic forcescreate and sustain old age Social Security as a public program? We document some of the internationally and historically common features of Social Security programs including explicit and implicit taxes on labor supply, pay-as-you-go features, intergenerational redistribution, benefits which areincreasing functions of lifetime earnings and not means-tested. We partition theories of Social Security into three groups: "political", "efficiency" and "narrative" theories. We explore three political theories in this paper: the majority rational voting model (with its two versions: "the elderly as the leaders of a winning coalition with the poor" and the "once and for all election" model), the "time-intensive model of political competition" and the "taxpayer protection model". Each of the explanations is compared with the international and historical facts. A companion paper explores the "efficiency" and "narrative" theories, and derives implicationsof all the theories for replacing the typical pay-as-you-go system with a forced savings plan.

Markups, gaps and the welfare costs of business fluctuations

In this paper we present a simple theory-based measure of the variations in aggregate economic efficiency: the gap between the marginal product of labor and the household s consumption/leisure tradeoff. We show that this indicator corresponds to the inverse of the markup of price over social marginal cost, and give some evidence in support of this interpretation. We then show that, with some auxilliary assumptions our gap variable may be used to measure the efficiency costs of business fluctuations. We find that the latter costs are modest on average. However, to the extent the flexible price equilibrium is distorted,the gross efficiency losses from recessions and gains from booms may be large. Indeed, we find that the major recessions involved large efficiency losses. These results hold for reasonable parameterizations of the Frisch elasticity of labor supply, the coefficient of relative risk aversion, and steady state distortions.

Parental altruism under imperfect information: Theory and evidence

Can we reconcile the predictions of the altruism model of the family withthe evidence on parental monetary transfers in the US? This paper providesa new assessment of this question. I expand the altruism model by introducingeffort of the child and by relaxing the assumption of perfect informationof the parent about the labor market opportunities of the child. First,I solve and simulate a model of altruism and labor supply under imperfectinformation. Second, I use cross-sectional data to test the following prediction of the model: Are parental transfers especially responsive tothe income variations of children who are very attached to the labor market? The results of the analysis suggest that imperfect informationaccounts for many of the patterns of intergenerational transfers in theUS.

Indentifying human capital externalities: Theory with an application to US cities

The identification of aggregate human capital externalities is still not fully understood. The existing (Mincerian) approach confounds positive externalities with wage changes due to a downward sloping demand curve for human capital. As a result, it yields positive externalities even when wages equal marginal social products. We propose an approach that identifies human capital externalities whether or not aggregate demand for human capital slopes downward. Another advantage of our approach is that it does not require estimates of the individual return to human capital. Applications to US cities and states between 1970 and 1990 yield no evidence of significant average -schooling externalities.

Ignoring information in binary choice with continuous variables: When is less 'more'?

When can a single variable be more accurate in binary choice than multiple sources of information? We derive analytically the probability that a single variable (SV) will correctly predict one of two choices when both criterion and predictor are continuous variables. We further provide analogous derivations for multiple regression (MR) and equal weighting (EW) and specify the conditions under which the models differ in expected predictive ability. Key factors include variability in cue validities, intercorrelation between predictors, and the ratio of predictors to observations in MR. Theory and simulations are used to illustrate the differential effects of these factors. Results directly address why and when one-reason decision making can be more effective than analyses that use more information. We thus provide analytical backing to intriguing empirical results that, to date, have lacked theoretical justification. There are predictable conditions for which one should expect less to be more.

A positive theory of geographic mobility and social insurance

This paper presents a tractable dynamic general equilibrium model thatcan explain cross-country empirical regularities in geographical mobility,unemployment and labor market institutions. Rational agents vote overunemployment insurance (UI), taking the dynamic distortionary effects ofinsurance on the performance of the labor market into consideration.Agents with higher cost of moving, i.e., more attached to their currentlocation, prefer more generous UI. The key assumption is that an agent'sattachment to a location increases the longer she has resided there. UIreduces the incentive for labor mobility and increases, therefore, thefraction of attached agents and the political support for UI. The mainresult is that this self-reinforcing mechanism can give rise to multiplesteady-states-one 'European' steady-state featuring high unemployment,low geographical mobility and high unemployment insurance, and one'American' steady-state featuring low unemployment, high mobility andlow unemployment insurance.

Endogeneous matching in university-industry collaboration: Theory and empirical evidence from the UK

We develop a two-sided matching model to analyze collaboration between heterogeneousacademics and firms. We predict a positive assortative matching in terms of both scientificability and affinity for type of research, but negative assortative in terms of ability on one sideand affinity in the other. In addition, the most able and most applied academics and the mostable and most basic firms shall collaborate rather than stay independent. Our predictionsreceive strong support from the analysis of the teams of academics and firms that proposeresearch projects to the UK's Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council.

Granulomatosis-associated common variable immunodeficiency disorder: a case-control study versus sarcoidosis.

The aim of the present study was to investigate to what extent interstitial lung disease (ILD) in common variable immunodeficiency disorder (CVID)-associated granulomatous disease (GD) is similar to pulmonary sarcoidosis 20 patients with CVID/GD were included in a retrospective study conducted by the Groupe Sarcoïdose Francophone. Medical records were centralised. Patients were compared with 60 controls with sarcoidosis. Clinical examination showed more frequent crackles in patients than controls (45% versus 1.7%, respectively; p<0.001). On thoracic computed tomography scans, nodules (often multiple and with smooth margins), air bronchograms and halo signs were more frequent in patients than controls (80% versus 42%, respectively; p=0.004) as well as bronchiectasis (65% versus 23%, respectively; p<0.001). The micronodule distribution was perilymphatic in 100% of controls and in 42% of patients (p<0.001). Bronchoalveolar lavage analysis showed lower T-cell CD4/CD8 ratios in patients than in controls (mean±sd 1.6±1.1 versus 5.3±4, respectively; p<0.01). On pathological analysis, nodules and consolidations corresponded to granulomatous lesions with or without lymphocytic disorders in most cases. Mortality was higher in patients than controls (30% versus 0%, respectively) and resulted from common variable immunodeficiency complications. ILD in CVID/GD presents a specific clinical picture and evolution that are markedly different from those of sarcoidosis.

Variable phenotypic expressivity in a Swiss family with autosomal dominant retinitis pigmentosa due to a T494M mutation in the PRPF3 gene.

PURPOSE: To characterize the clinical, psychophysical, and electrophysiological phenotypes in a five-generation Swiss family with dominantly inherited retinitis pigmentosa caused by a T494M mutation in the Precursor mRNA-Processing factor 3 (PRPF3) gene, and to relate the phenotype to the underlying genetic mutation. METHODS: Eleven affected patients were ascertained for phenotypic and genotypic characterization. Ophthalmologic evaluations included color vision testing, Goldmann perimetry, and digital fundus photography. Some patients had autofluorescence imaging, Optical Coherence Tomography, and ISCEV-standard full-field electroretinography. All affected patients had genetic testing. RESULTS: The age of onset of night blindness and the severity of the progression of the disease varied between members of the family. Some patients reported early onset of night blindness at age three, with subsequent severe deterioration of visual acuity, which was 0.4 in the best eye after their fifties. The second group of patients had a later onset of night blindness, in the mid-twenties, with a milder disease progression and a visual acuity of 0.8 at age 70. Fundus autofluorescence imaging and electrophysiological and visual field abnormalities also showed some degree of varying phenotypes. The autofluorescence imaging showed a large high-density ring bilaterally. Myopia (range: -0.75 to -8) was found in 10/11 affected subjects. Fundus findings showed areas of atrophy along the arcades. A T494M change was found in exon 11 of the PRPF3 gene. The change segregates with the disease in the family. CONCLUSIONS: A mutation in the PRPF3 gene is rare compared to other genes causing autosomal dominant retinitis pigmentosa (ADRP). Although a T494M change has been reported, the family in our study is the first with variable expressivity. Mutations in the PRPF3 gene can cause a variable ADRP phenotype, unlike in the previously described Danish, English, and Japanese families. Our report, based on one of the largest affected pedigree, provides a better understanding as to the phenotype/genotype description of ADRP caused by a PRPF3 mutation.

Taking "Galton's problem" Seriously : Towards a Theory of Policy Diffusion

This article builds on the recent policy diffusion literature and attempts to overcome one of its major problems, namely the lack of a coherent theoretical framework. The literature defines policy diffusion as a process where policy choices are interdependent, and identifies several diffusion mechanisms that specify the link between the policy choices of the various actors. As these mechanisms are grounded in different theories, theoretical accounts of diffusion currently have little internal coherence. In this article we put forward an expected-utility model of policy change that is able to subsume all the diffusion mechanisms. We argue that the expected utility of a policy depends on both its effectiveness and the payoffs it yields, and we show that the various diffusion mechanisms operate by altering these two parameters. Each mechanism affects one of the two parameters, and does so in distinct ways. To account for aggregate patterns of diffusion, we embed our model in a simple threshold model of diffusion. Given the high complexity of the process that results, strong analytical conclusions on aggregate patterns cannot be drawn without more extensive analysis which is beyond the scope of this article. However, preliminary considerations indicate that a wide range of diffusion processes may exist and that convergence is only one possible outcome.

Grinder's Group Mastery Theory : scientific research and its application to classroom teaching

Estudi centrat en el paper de la comunicació no verbal com a eina docent per a la gestió de l’aula, prenent com a referència el model de comunicació de Michael Grinder (Pentimento), basat en la Programació Neuro-lingüística (PNL). Aquest model s’analitza i es compara amb altres models i estudis sobre la comunicació no verbal, per establir-ne similituds i diferències. Per tal d’avaluar l’eficàcia de les tècniques de gestió de l’aula a través de la comunicació no verbal proposades per Grinder en un context educatiu real, s’inclouen i s’analitzen enregistraments de la implementació de diferents tècniques en un institut de secundària de Catalunya. Tota la informació recollida i analitzada permet valorar i ressaltar com és de significatiu tot allò que s’expressa més enllà del llenguatge, i per tant, com són d’importants i d’útils les habilitats comunicatives d’un professor en la seva tasca d’ensenyar.

Statistical learning theory for geospatial data. Case study: Aral sea

In recent years there has been an explosive growth in the development of adaptive and data driven methods. One of the efficient and data-driven approaches is based on statistical learning theory (Vapnik 1998). The theory is based on Structural Risk Minimisation (SRM) principle and has a solid statistical background. When applying SRM we are trying not only to reduce training error ? to fit the available data with a model, but also to reduce the complexity of the model and to reduce generalisation error. Many nonlinear learning procedures recently developed in neural networks and statistics can be understood and interpreted in terms of the structural risk minimisation inductive principle. A recent methodology based on SRM is called Support Vector Machines (SVM). At present SLT is still under intensive development and SVM find new areas of application (www.kernel-machines.org). SVM develop robust and non linear data models with excellent generalisation abilities that is very important both for monitoring and forecasting. SVM are extremely good when input space is high dimensional and training data set i not big enough to develop corresponding nonlinear model. Moreover, SVM use only support vectors to derive decision boundaries. It opens a way to sampling optimization, estimation of noise in data, quantification of data redundancy etc. Presentation of SVM for spatially distributed data is given in (Kanevski and Maignan 2004).

A behavioral ecology of shermen: hidden stories from trajectory data in the Northern Humboldt Current System

This work proposes an original contribution to the understanding of shermen spatial behavior, based on the behavioral ecology and movement ecology paradigms. Through the analysis of Vessel Monitoring System (VMS) data, we characterized the spatial behavior of Peruvian anchovy shermen at di erent scales: (1) the behavioral modes within shing trips (i.e., searching, shing and cruising); (2) the behavioral patterns among shing trips; (3) the behavioral patterns by shing season conditioned by ecosystem scenarios; and (4) the computation of maps of anchovy presence proxy from the spatial patterns of behavioral mode positions. At the rst scale considered, we compared several Markovian (hidden Markov and semi-Markov models) and discriminative models (random forests, support vector machines and arti cial neural networks) for inferring the behavioral modes associated with VMS tracks. The models were trained under a supervised setting and validated using tracks for which behavioral modes were known (from on-board observers records). Hidden semi-Markov models performed better, and were retained for inferring the behavioral modes on the entire VMS dataset. At the second scale considered, each shing trip was characterized by several features, including the time spent within each behavioral mode. Using a clustering analysis, shing trip patterns were classi ed into groups associated to management zones, eet segments and skippers' personalities. At the third scale considered, we analyzed how ecological conditions shaped shermen behavior. By means of co-inertia analyses, we found signi cant associations between shermen, anchovy and environmental spatial dynamics, and shermen behavioral responses were characterized according to contrasted environmental scenarios. At the fourth scale considered, we investigated whether the spatial behavior of shermen re ected to some extent the spatial distribution of anchovy. Finally, this work provides a wider view of shermen behavior: shermen are not only economic agents, but they are also foragers, constrained by ecosystem variability. To conclude, we discuss how these ndings may be of importance for sheries management, collective behavior analyses and end-to-end models.