On the choice of an exchange rate regime: target zones revisited

From the classical gold standard up to the current ERM2 arrangement of the European Union, target zones have been a widely used exchange regime in contemporary history. This paper presents a benchmark model that rationalizes the choice of target zones over the rest of regimes: the fixed rate, the free float and the managed float. It is shown that the monetary authority may gain efficiency by reducing volatility of both the exchange rate and the interest rate at the same time. Furthermore, the model is consistent with some known stylized facts in the empirical literature that previous models were not able to produce, namely, the positive relation between the exchange rate and the interest rate differential, the degree of non-linearity of the function linking the exchage rate to fundamentals and the shape of the exchange rate stochastic distribution.

A foundation model for marxian breakdown theories based on a new falling rate of profit mechanism.

The paper presents a foundation model for Marxian theories of the breakdown of capitalism based on a new falling rate of profit mechanism. All of these theories are based on one or more of ?the historical tendencies?: a rising capital-wage bill ratio, a rising capitalist share and a falling rate of profit. The model is a foundation in the sense that it generates these tendencies in the context of a model with a constant subsistence wage. The newly discovered generating mechanism is based on neo-classical reasoning for a model with land. It is non-Ricardian in that land augmenting technical progress can be unboundedly rapid. Finally, since the model has no steady state, it is necessary to use a new technique, Chaplygin?s method, to prove the result.

A proposal for a new specification for a conditionally heteroskedastic variance model: the Quadratic Moving-Average Conditional Heteroskedasticity and an application to the D. Mark-U.S. dollar Exchange Rate

Ever since the appearance of the ARCH model [Engle(1982a)], an impressive array of variance specifications belonging to the same class of models has emerged [i.e. Bollerslev's (1986) GARCH; Nelson's (1990) EGARCH]. This recent domain has achieved very successful developments. Nevertheless, several empirical studies seem to show that the performance of such models is not always appropriate [Boulier(1992)]. In this paper we propose a new specification: the Quadratic Moving Average Conditional heteroskedasticity model. Its statistical properties, such as the kurtosis and the symmetry, as well as two estimators (Method of Moments and Maximum Likelihood) are studied. Two statistical tests are presented, the first one tests for homoskedasticity and the second one, discriminates between ARCH and QMACH specification. A Monte Carlo study is presented in order to illustrate some of the theoretical results. An empirical study is undertaken for the DM-US exchange rate.

A descriptive and analytic look at Marxs own explanations for the falling rate of profit

Marxs conclusions about the falling rate of profit have been analysed exhaustively. Usually this has been done by building models which broadly conform to Marxs views and then showing that his conclusions are either correct or, more frequently, that they can not be sustained. By contrast, this paper examines, both descriptively and analytically, Marxs arguments from the Hodgskin section of Theories of Surplus Value, the General Law section of the recently published Volume 33 of the Collected Works and Chapter 3 of Volume III of Capital. It also gives a new interpretation of Part III of this last work. The main conclusions are first, that Marx had an intrinsic explanation of the falling rate of profit but was unable to give it a satisfactory demonstration and second, that he had a number of subsidiary explanations of which the most important was resource scarcity. The paper closes with an assessment of the pedigree of various currents of Marxian thought on this issue.

A descriptive and analytic look at Marxs own explanations for the falling rate of profit (Long Version)

Marxs conclusions about the falling rate of profit have been analysed exhaustively. Usually this has been done by building models which broadly conform to Marxs views and then showing that his conclusions are either correct or, more frequently, that they can not be sustained. By contrast, this paper examines, both descriptively and analytically, Marxs arguments from the Hodgskin section of Theories of Surplus Value, the General Law section of the recently published Volume 33 of the Collected Works and Chapter 3 of Volume III of Capital. It also gives a new interpretation of Part III of this last work. The main conclusions are first, that Marx had an intrinsic explanation of the falling rate of profit but was unable to give it a satisfactory demonstration and second, that he had a number of subsidiary explanations of which the most important was resource scarcity. The paper closes with an assessment of the pedigree of various currents of Marxian thought on this issue.

Land, technical progress and the falling rate of profit

The paper sets out a one sector growth model with a neoclassical production function in land and a capital-labour aggregate. Capital accumulates through capitalist saving, the labour supply is infinitely elastic at a subsistence wage and all factors may experience factor augmenting technical progress. The main result is that, if the elasticity of substitution between land and the capital-labour aggregate is less than one and if the rate of caital augmenting technical progress is strictly positive, then the rate of profit will fall to zero. The surprise is that this result holds regardless of the rate of land augmenting technical progress; that is, no amount of technical advance in agriculture can stop the fall in the rate of profit. The paper also discusses the relation of this result to the classical and Marxist literature and sets out the path of the relative price of land.

The short and long-run determinants of the real exchange rate in Mexico

This paper explores the real exchange rate behavior in Mexico from 1960 until 2005. Since the empirical analysis reveals that the real exchange rate is not mean reverting, we propose that economic fundamental variables affect its evolution in the long-run. Therefore, based on equilibrium exchange rate paradigms, we propose a simple model of real exchange rate determination which includes the relative labor productivity, the real interest rates and the net foreign assets over a long period of time. Our analysis also considers the dynamic adjustment in response to shocks through impulse response functions derived from the multivariate VAR model.

Numerical simulation of combined heat transfer phenomena (conduction, convection, and radiation). Application to he optimisation of thermal systems

Thermal systems interchanging heat and mass by conduction, convection, radiation (solar and thermal ) occur in many engineering applications like energy storage by solar collectors, window glazing in buildings, refrigeration of plastic moulds, air handling units etc. Often these thermal systems are composed of various elements for example a building with wall, windows, rooms, etc. It would be of particular interest to have a modular thermal system which is formed by connecting different modules for the elements, flexibility to use and change models for individual elements, add or remove elements without changing the entire code. A numerical approach to handle the heat transfer and fluid flow in such systems helps in saving the full scale experiment time, cost and also aids optimisation of parameters of the system. In subsequent sections are presented a short summary of the work done until now on the orientation of the thesis in the field of numerical methods for heat transfer and fluid flow applications, the work in process and the future work.

Resting metabolic rate and protein turnover in apparently healthy elderly Gambian men.

Body composition, resting energy expenditure (REE), and whole body protein metabolism were studied in 26 young and 28 elderly Gambian men matched for body mass index during the dry season in a rural village in The Gambia. REE was measured by indirect calorimetry (hood system) in the fasting state and after five successive meals. Rates of whole body nitrogen flux, protein synthesis, and protein breakdown were determined in the fed state from the level of isotopic enrichment of urinary ammonia over a period of 12 h after a single oral dose of [15N]glycine. Expressed in absolute value, REE was significantly lower in the elderly compared with the young group (3.21 +/- 0.07 vs. 4.04 +/- 0.07 kJ/min, P < 0.001) and when adjusted to body weight (3.29 +/- 0.05 vs. 3.96 +/- 0.05 kJ/min, P < 0.0001) and fat-free mass (FFM; 3.38 +/- 0.01 vs. 3.87 +/- 0.01 kJ/min, P < 0.0001). The rate of protein synthesis averaged 207 +/- 13 g protein/day in the elderly and 230 +/- 13 g protein/day in the young group, whereas protein breakdown averaged 184 +/- 13 g protein/day in the elderly and 203 +/- 13 g protein/day in the young group (nonsignificant). When values were adjusted for body weight or FFM, they did not reveal any difference between the two groups. It is concluded that the reduced REE adjusted for body composition observed in elderly Gambian men is not explained by a decrease in protein turnover.

On the growth rate of minor-closed classes of graphs

"Vegeu el resum a l'inici del document del fitxer adjunt."

New evidence of the real interest rate parity for OECD countries using panel unit root tests with breaks

This paper tests for real interest parity (RIRP) among the nineteen major OECD countries over the period 1978:Q2-1998:Q4. The econometric methods applied consist of combining the use of several unit root or stationarity tests designed for panels valid under cross-section dependence and presence of multiple structural breaks. Our results strongly support the fulfillment of the weak version of the RIRP for the studied period once dependence and structural breaks are accounted for.

The choice of banking firm: Are the interest rate a significant criteria?

The objective of the research is to know the factors that in Spain determine the choice of banking organization. The obtained results indicate that the dimension of the network of branches is the reason more valued. In spite of the increasing symmetry of the Spanish banking market, the preferences of the clients of the savings banks and those of the banks are not absolutely coincident, being the proximity - the main reason for election- much more valued by the former than by the latter. The existence of divergences in the preferences has also been detected according to the region and the typology of city of residence.

Experimental investigation of transient natural convection cooling of high prandtl number fluid with variable viscosity

Report for the scientific sojourn at the James Cook University, Australia, between June to December 2007. Free convection in enclosed spaces is found widely in natural and industrial systems. It is a topic of primary interest because in many systems it provides the largest resistance to the heat transfer in comparison with other heat transfer modes. In such systems the convection is driven by a density gradient within the fluid, which, usually, is produced by a temperature difference between the fluid and surrounding walls. In the oil industry, the oil, which has High Prandtl, usually is stored and transported in large tanks at temperatures high enough to keep its viscosity and, thus the pumping requirements, to a reasonable level. A temperature difference between the fluid and the walls of the container may give rise to the unsteady buoyancy force and hence the unsteady natural convection. In the initial period of cooling the natural convection regime dominates over the conduction contribution. As the oil cools down it typically becomes more viscous and this increase of viscosity inhibits the convection. At this point the oil viscosity becomes very large and unloading of the tank becomes very difficult. For this reason it is of primary interest to be able to predict the cooling rate of the oil. The general objective of this work is to develop and validate a simulation tool able to predict the cooling rates of high Prandtl fluid considering the variable viscosity effects.

Can a Lucas model with habit generate realistic conditional volatility in exchange rate returns?

In this paper, we attempt to give a theoretical underpinning to the well established empirical stylized fact that asset returns in general and the spot FOREX returns in particular display predictable volatility characteristics. Adopting Moore and Roche s habit persistence version of Lucas model we nd that both the innovation in the spot FOREX return and the FOREX return itself follow "ARCH" style processes. Using the impulse response functions (IRFs) we show that the baseline simulated FOREX series has "ARCH" properties in the quarterly frequency that match well the "ARCH" properties of the empirical monthly estimations in that when we scale the x-axis to synchronize the monthly and quarterly responses we find similar impulse responses to one unit shock in variance. The IRFs for the ARCH processes we estimate "look the same" with an approximately monotonic decreasing fashion. The Lucas two-country monetary model with habit can generate realistic conditional volatility in spot FOREX return.

Structural Breaks in the Real Exchange Rate and Real Interest Rate Relationship

In this paper we empirically examine the relationship between the real exchange rate and real interest rate differentials using recent econometric methods robust to potential structural breaks. Generally, our study provides evidence of this relationship in the long-run context. More specifically, we first focus on the UK-US relationship, and interestingly find limited evidence of this long-run relationship using traditional methods. But when an approach robust to endogenously determined structural breaks is employed, we find evidence that the real interest rate differential is an important determinant of the real exchange rate. Secondly, in order to investigate the relevance of structural shifts in a more global context, we carry out multiple country analysis. While providing evidence of this long-run relationship, European data suggest that the presence of structural breaks is not very common across countries and is indeed country-specific.