Improvement on the sales forecast accuracy for a fast growing company by the best combination of historical data usage and clients segmentation

Industrial companies in developing countries are facing rapid growths, and this requires having in place the best organizational processes to cope with the market demand. Sales forecasting, as a tool aligned with the general strategy of the company, needs to be as much accurate as possible, in order to achieve the sales targets by making available the right information for purchasing, planning and control of production areas, and finally attending in time and form the demand generated. The present dissertation uses a single case study from the subsidiary of an international explosives company based in Brazil, Maxam, experiencing high growth in sales, and therefore facing the challenge to adequate its structure and processes properly for the rapid growth expected. Diverse sales forecast techniques have been analyzed to compare the actual monthly sales forecast, based on the sales force representatives’ market knowledge, with forecasts based on the analysis of historical sales data. The dissertation findings show how the combination of both qualitative and quantitative forecasts, by the creation of a combined forecast that considers both client´s demand knowledge from the sales workforce with time series analysis, leads to the improvement on the accuracy of the company´s sales forecast.

Comparando a saúde no Brasil com os países da OCDE: explorando dados de saúde pública

A atenção à saúde da população no Brasil gera um grande volume de dados sobre os serviços de saúde prestados. O tratamento adequado destes dados com técnicas de acesso à grande massa de dados pode permitir a extração de informações importantes para um melhor conhecimento do setor saúde. Avaliar o desempenho dos sistemas de saúde através da utilização da massa de dados produzida tem sido uma tendência mundial, uma vez que vários países já mantêm programas de avaliação baseados em dados e indicadores. Neste contexto, A OCDE – Organização para Cooperação e Desenvolvimento Econômico, que é uma organização internacional que avalia as políticas econômicas de seus 34 países membros, possui uma publicação bienal, chamada Health at a Glance, que tem por objetivo fazer a comparação dos sistemas de saúde dos países membros da OCDE. Embora o Brasil não seja um membro, a OCDE procura incluí-lo no cálculo de alguns indicadores, quando os dados estão disponíveis, pois considera o Brasil como uma das maiores economias que não é um país membro. O presente estudo tem por objetivo propor e implementar, com base na metodologia da publicação Health at a Glance de 2015, o cálculo para o Brasil de 22 indicadores em saúde que compõem o domínio “utilização de serviços em saúde” da publicação da OCDE. Para isto foi feito um levantamento das principais bases de dados nacionais em saúde disponíveis que posteriormente foram capturadas, conforme necessidade, através de técnicas para acessar e tratar o grande volume de dados em saúde no Brasil. As bases de dados utilizadas são provenientes de três principais fontes remuneração: SUS, planos privados de saúde e outras fontes de remuneração como, por exemplo, planos públicos de saúde, DPVAT e particular. A realização deste trabalho permitiu verificar que os dados em saúde disponíveis publicamente no Brasil podem ser usados na avaliação do desempenho do sistema de saúde, e além de incluir o Brasil no benchmark internacional dos países da OCDE nestes 22 indicadores, promoveu a comparação destes indicadores entre o setor público de saúde do Brasil, o SUS, e o setor de planos privados de saúde, a chamada saúde suplementar. Além disso, também foi possível comparar os indicadores calculados para o SUS para cada UF, demonstrando assim as diferenças na prestação de serviços de saúde nos estados do Brasil para o setor público. A análise dos resultados demonstrou que, em geral, o Brasil comparado com os países da OCDE apresenta um desempenho abaixo da média dos demais países, o que indica necessidade de esforços para atingir um nível mais alto na prestação de serviços em saúde que estão no âmbito de avaliação dos indicadores calculados. Quando segmentado entre SUS e saúde suplementar, a análise dos resultados dos indicadores do Brasil aponta para uma aproximação do desempenho do setor de saúde suplementar em relação à média dos demais países da OCDE, e por outro lado um distanciamento do SUS em relação a esta média. Isto evidencia a diferença no nível de prestação de serviços dentro do Brasil entre o SUS e a saúde suplementar. Por fim, como proposta de melhoria na qualidade dos resultados obtidos neste estudo sugere-se o uso da base de dados do TISS/ANS para as informações provenientes do setor de saúde suplementar, uma vez que o TISS reflete toda a troca de informações entre os prestadores de serviços de saúde e as operadoras de planos privados de saúde para fins de pagamento dos serviços prestados.

Espaços de pobreza e mobilidade urbana: os deslocamentos da população de baixa renda em Natal/RN

This dissertation is an attempt to understand how families with an income of up to three minimum wages and living in different Areas of Demographic Expansion (AEDs) of Natal municipality specifically in the districts of Igapó and Salinas (North Administrative Zone of the city), Ponta Negra (South Administrative Zone), Santos Reis, Praia do Meio, Areia Preta and Mãe Luíza (East Administrative Zone) and Felipe Camarão (West Administrative Zone) solve their problems of urban mobility. It is, therefore, a reflection upon the mobility needs of poor urban households as expressed in terms of origin-destiny displacements for specific movements (house-work, house-school, house-shopping, house-healthcare and house-leisure), all of which being analyzed within the relationship between public transportation and poverty spaces of the city. In order to develop the study, theoretical aspects and themes related to the production of the urban space, to social and spatial segregation, to urban mobility and to transportation were confronted with the collected data referring to the urban population previously selected. One of the research main findings is the crucial role mobility plays in the social differentiation of such people living in Natal and that any policy for the improvement of their living conditions must take mobility issues into account

Improvement of the oral praziquantel anthelmintic effect by cyclodextrin complexation

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Effect of Aloe vera extract on the improvement of the respiratory activity of leukocytes of matrinxã during the transport stress

This study evaluated the effect of extract of Aloe vera in the transport water of matrinxã (Brycon amazonicus) fish on stress response and leukocyte respiratory activity. Fish was transported for 4 h in water containing Aloe at levels 0; 0.02; 0.2 and 2 mg/L, and sampled before transport 2, 4, 24 and 96 h after for determination of plasma glucose and respiratory activity of leukocytes. An additional in vitro assay was conducted with another fish species, pacu (Piaractus mesopotamicus), to test the respiratory burst of leukocytes exposed to Aloe extract (0.0, phosphate-buffered saline (PBS) only) at 0.1, 0.2, 0.5 and 1 mg/L). Plasma glucose increased after 2 and 4 h of transport and returned to control levels within 24 h, but the addition of Aloe in the transport water did not affect the level of blood glucose. However, at 2 h of transport, Aloe enhanced the respiratory activity of leukocytes in a dose-dependent way. The highest value of respiratory burst activity of leukocytes was observed in the fish transported in water containing Aloe at 2 mg/L. The enhancing effect of the plant extract on the production of oxygen radicals was confirmed in vitro in leukocytes of pacu incubated in Aloe at concentrations 0.1 and 0.2 mg/L. The results suggest that Aloe vera is a modulator of the immune system in fish improving the innate immune response tested.

The improvement of the anti-hyperalgesic effect of ketamine and of its isomers by the administration of ifenprodil

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Dificuldades e/ou facilidades vivenciadas pelos profissionais que compõem a Estratégia de Saúde da Família

Descriptive and quantitative study, with the objective of review the positive and negative aspects experienced by professionals working in the Family Health Strategy (ESF) of Ceará-Mirim town, at Rio Grande do Norte state. The population included 190 healthcare professionals that integrate the family healthcare staff and the data-collection occurred in a meeting at their workplace, with the implementation of a questionnaire. Results were organized in Microsoft Excel spreadsheet software, with descriptive statistical analysis in tables, graphs and tables through frequencies, averages values and standard deviations. There is a predominance of females (n = 137) and higher rates in almost all professions, and higher average age (38.9%, SD = 7.8) and income wage (average = 10) in the medical category. Regarding the more developed activities, for physicians and nurses are the healthcare actions in the Unit, the oral hygiene for dentists, the immunization for auxiliary nurses (Aux-N), educational meeting for the dental office assistants (ACD), and home visitations to community-based health workers (ACS). About the easiness of work, 93.2% said to be presence of professionals with a personal profile in public healthcare; about the difficulties, 86.8% of professionals cited the unavailability of material, followed by salary range reported by nurses (80.9% ), dentists (80.0%), physicians (73.3%), ACS (83.1%), and Aux-N (90.5%). In relation to working conditions, the unavailability of materials was the most mentioned, with the exception of dentists who reported improvement in wages. We still identify among these difficulties: the drugs availability regarded as first grade obstacle by ACS and physicians, the type of contracts in second grade cited by the ACD and dentists and, in third grade, the salary range cited by dentists and auxiliary nurses. It is concluded that the difficulties and easiness faced by ESF professionals are divergent among themselves. For physicians and nurses, whose healthcare actions become directed to specific groups, the individual and the family, their difficulties relate to the unavailability of materials. For dentists, whose actions more quoted were topical application of fluoride and supervised toothbrush, their greatest difficulty is the salary range. As to the Aux-N, ACD and ACS, for all of them the unavailability of materials has hindered the implementation of their activities in ESF

A pessoa idosa com doença crônica não transmissível atendida em serviços de média complexidade na cidade de Natal/RN

The demographic and epidemiological transition process caused by a declining in birth rates and in mortality, also changes occurred in morbidity and mortality is represented by the increasing of the aging population and the raising of chronic diseases. These diseases are characterized by multiple etiologies, risk factors, long latency period, a prolonged evolution, non-infectious origin and it has association with functional impairment and disability. Thus, elderly with chronic non-communicable disease has priority because they belong to a vulnerable group to get affection of comorbidities in aging, with increased demand and spending on health services. This study is aimed to analyse the understanding of elderly people with chronic non comunicable disease in the medium complexity service as a contribution to the improvement of health care in the city of Natal / RN. This is a descriptive and exploratory study with a quantitative approach, carried out at the Specialized Center for Elderly Health Care and at the Pescadores Hospital. The population was composed of 4,180 persons with a sample of 124 elderly aged above 60 years, attended in these medium complexity services. The instrument, a structured form, adapted from a questionnaire for monitoring risk and protective factors for chronic disease of the Ministry of Health. To collect data was was used the interview form containing demographic data, habits, health status and health care services. The results were processed using the Statistical Package for Social Science, version 18.0, analyzed by simple statistics. It was found that most seniors were female, predominantly between 70 and 74 years old, married, with a brown skin tone and Catholic religion, more than half had incomplete basic education, family income between one to two minimum wages and living with their families. Regarding the interviewers lifestyle, 94.4%, of them ate chicken and 97.6%, fruits, it was observed a reduction in smoking, alcoholism habits and physical activity according to the increasing age, 58.1 and 18.5% had insomnia18,5 % used sleeping pills. The elderly (51.6%) reported using services in times of sickness, seeking primary care at first (30.6%), 52% did not receive referral and was looking for free demand (38.7%). The most reported morbidity was hypertension, followed by musculoskeletal disorders. Regarding the difficulties in seeking health services, the delay in treatment and the waiting line were the most cited by the elderly. Almost all of them reported no activities to promote health in these services and those who received individual counseling on chronic diseases. Almost always, the health professionals who care of them, were mostly doctors followed by nurses. Based on the results presented, it is considered that the health services of medium complexity must undergone a more continuous dialogue with other attention level and focus on actions of health promotion and prevention. It is also recommended the necessity for qualified professionals to delivery health care to elderly and the implementation of protocols by a multidisciplinary health team, intending to provide better and continous care for the elderly with chronic diseases. The healthcare professionals who served them, were mostly physicians, followed by nurses. Through the results presented, it is considered that the medium complexity healthcare services need to perform a more continuous dialogue with the other levels of attention focusing attention to the health promotion and prevention actions. It is also recommended the necessity for qualified professionals to delivery healthcare for the elderly, in addition, a protocol implementation for the multidisciplinary health care team, to provide better care, and also the care continuity to elderly with chronic diseases

Atenção à saúde da pessoa idosa na estratégia saúde da família no município de Santo Antônio/RN: um estudo de caso

According to demographic estimates, by the year 2025 Brazil will be the sixth country in the world in number of elderly. For this reason, it is a purpose of public policies to help people to reach that age being healthier. The current health care model of health surveillance through the Family Health Strategy (EFS, in portuguese) is configured as a gateway into the care of the elderly in the Unified Health System (SUS, in portuguese). It is also an area of development of practices to promote health, prevention and control of chronic nondegenerative diseases. The aim of this study was to analyze the health care of the elderly provided by ESF professionals for the achievement of a full care. The study is descriptive case study with a quantitative approach, performed in the city of Santo Antônio/RN. The population included all health professionals, who are FHS members of the city that agreed to participate of the survey, a total of 80 professionals. Data were collected using a structured questionnaire, having mostly closed questions and divided into two parts: one containing sociodemographic information of health professionals and vocational training and the other, the activities carried on by the professionals in senior care, being analyzed from a database tabulated in a spreadsheet and discussed according to the descriptive statistics in tables, graphs and charts using frequencies, medians and values of central tendency. It was verified a predominance of professionals who finished highschool, mostly female, aged from 30 to 34 years old, with training completed in the last 10 years, without being graduated in the field of geriatrics or gerontology and mostly without training in gerontology. Family members and caregivers were the components of the social support network most identified by the professionals (66.3%).The elderly access to the Family Health Basic Unit was considered by83.8% of professionals as the most important factor that interferes in the activities of health care of the elderly. Considering the inclusion of the family in care: 98.8% of professionals consider the family as one of the goals of care, but 82.5% assist the family to know their role and participate in the care of the elderly, emphasizing that no professional makes use of tools for evaluating the functionality of the family. Regarding the actions taken to assist the elderly, 91.25% have home visits program to the elderly, 88.75% use the host program; 77.5% know the habits of life, cultural, ethical and religious values of the elderly, their families and their community ;51.25% complement the activities through intersectoral actions, 50%participate in groups of living with the elderly; 33.75% keeps track and maintain updated the health information of the elderly; 11.25% of the professionals perform the Single Therapy Planning (PTS, in portuguese) and few implement the actions to promote health according to PTS; there is a deficit in the number of professional categories in the identification and monitoring of the frail older people in their households. It is concluded that the health care of the elderly developed by ESF professionals differs among the professional categories. It was identified weaknesses in the promotion of an active and healthy aging and also in the establishment of an integrated and full care of the elderly. It is recommended the adoption of permanent educational activities by the City Management, initially for ESF professionals in the the perspective of the guidelines of the National Policy of Health Care for the Elderly and later to the other professionals that are part of the health care network of the elderly, at all levels of care in the city for the development of strategies and practices that promote the improvement of the quality of healthcare for the elderly, expecting concrete and effective results in terms of promoting health within Brazilian reality

Evidências de validação de um protocolo para assistência às pessoas com úlceras venosas em serviços de alta complexidade

Venous ulcers are lesions resulting from chronic venous insufficiency, venous valvular abnormalities and venous thrombosis. Its occurrence has been growing with the increase in life expectancy of the world population. Considered as fundamental aspects in the approach to the person with venous ulcer care with the interdisciplinary approach, adoption of protocol-specific knowledge, technical skill, coordination between levels of care complexity of the Health System and active participation of patients and their families, a holistic perspective. The construction of a clinical protocol for people with venous ulcers can help professionals of high complexity services in patient assessment and the establishment of quality care in a systematic way and focused on the factors that interfere with wound healing. Thus, this study aimed to analyze the evidence of validation of a clinical protocol for people with venous ulcers treated at high-complexity services. This is a methodological study with a quantitative approach, developed in three stages: literature review, evidence of content validity and evidence of validation in the clinical context. Approved by the Federal University of Rio Grande do Norte Research Ethics Committee (Opinion: 147.452 and CAAE: 07556312.0.0000.5537). The literature review was conducted in August and September 2012, becoming the basis for the construction of the protocol. Then the evidence of content validity, which included 53 judges (experts) selected by the Lattes platform to evaluate the protocol items was performed. The judges were contacted by e-mail and rated the protocol via Google Docs . After analyzing the ratios obtained in this step, which reported kappa between 0.75 and 0.96 and between 0.80 and 0.98 IVC, and the suggestions of the judges, the protocol was adjusted and subjected to empirical evidence to validate the clinical setting at the University Hospital Onofre Lopes in Natal / RN. Evidence of validation in the clinical setting involved 4 judges who acted in pairs (paired) evaluated 32 patients with venous ulcers in the clinical context of high complexity. In both stages, we used the Kappa Index and Content Validity Index to analyze the responses of the judges. The parameters set as acceptable for these indices were: Kappa ≥ 0.61 and Content Validity Index > 0.80. Any evidence of content validity, as evidence of validation in the clinical context, the protocol items that have not reached Kappa and Content Validity Index established indices were excluded and some items were modified or added after suggestions. The process of content validation evidence and evidence of validation in the clinical setting allowed the improvement of the protocol for the care of people with venous ulcers initially proposed. The initial version of the protocol, built from the literature, contained 15 categories and 108 items; after evidence of content validity, remained the reduction to 15 categories with 91 items; the final version, clinically validated, is composed of the same 15 categories, 76 items. The protocol was validated in its content and in the clinical aspect, so we accepted the alternative hypothesis in the study. This protocol may contribute to the care system, allowing tailor behaviors and promote greater resolution in the treatment of people with venous ulcers in health services of high complexity

On determining spectral parameters, tracking jitter, and GPS positioning improvement by scintillation mitigation

A method of determining spectral parameters p (slope of the phase PSD) and T (phase PSD at 1 Hz) and hence tracking error variance in a GPS receiver PLL from just amplitude and phase scintillation indices and an estimated value of the Fresnel frequency has been previously presented. Here this method is validated using 50 Hz GPS phase and amplitude data from high latitude receivers in northern Norway and Svalbard. This has been done both using (1) a Fresnel frequency estimated using the amplitude PSD (in order to check the accuracy of the method) and (2) a constant assumed value of Fresnel frequency for the data set, convenient for the situation when contemporaneous phase PSDs are not available. Both of the spectral parameters (p, T) calculated using this method are in quite good agreement with those obtained by direct measurements of the phase spectrum as are tracking jitter variances determined for GPS receiver PLLs using these values. For the Svalbard data set, a significant difference in the scintillation level observed on the paths from different satellites received simultaneously was noted. Then, it is shown that the accuracy of relative GPS positioning can be improved by use of the tracking jitter variance in weighting the measurements from each satellite used in the positioning estimation. This has significant advantages for scintillation mitigation, particularly since the method can be accomplished utilizing only time domain measurements thus obviating the need for the phase PSDs in order to extract the spectral parameters required for tracking jitter determination.

Improvement of heart rate variability after exercise training and its predictors in COPD

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Improvement of antischistosomal activity of praziquantel by incorporation into phosphatidylcholine-containing liposomes

Praziquantel (PZQ) is effective against all known species of Schistosomes that infect humans. The failure of mass treatment of schistosomiasis has been attributed to the fact that therapy is not sufficiently long-lasting. This effect may be due to the low bioavailability of PZQ that has a low hydrosolubility and fast metabolism. Liposomes have been used to prolong drug levels. reduce the side effects, direct drugs to specific sites and increase bioavailability after administration. The aim of this work was to study the effect of phosphatidylcholine (PC)-containing liposomes to vehiculate PZQ to improve the treatment of schistosomiasis. The in vitro Study was carried out using Schistosoma mansoni parasites recovered by perfusion from the hepatic portal system of infected mice. Suspensions of liposomes with PZQ and free PZQ were administered p.o. in mice after 14 days of infection. The effect of both preparations in vitro on S. mansoni culture was similar. In the in vivo test, PZQ-liposomes caused a decrease in amounts of eggs and parasites. Liposomes improve the antischistosomal activity of praziquantel. This can be used as a starting point to investigate alternative administration routes or dosage forms and to examine the mechanism of intestinal absorption of PRZ © 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Decrease in circulating glucose, insulin and leptin levels and improvement in insulin resistance at 1 and 3 months after gastric bypass

Background: Hyperglycemia, insulin resistance and hyperleptinemia are some of the consequences of obesity. Gastric bypass for morbid obesity provides gastric restriction with decreased energy absorption. To confirm and extend previous reports in the literature, We evaluated the plasma glucose, serum insulin and leptin and insulin resistance of patients preoperatively and 1 and 3 months after Roux-en-Y gastric bypass (RYGBP).Methods: We determined body mass index (BMI), plasma glucose (glucose-oxidase method), serum leptin (immunoassay) and insulin (chemiluminescent immunometric assay), and insulin resistance index (IRI) by Homeostasis Model Assessment (HOMA) of 20 patients with morbid obesity both preoperatively and 1 and 3 months after RYGBP.Results: Patients showed a mean decrease in weight of 8 kg/month. Glycemia was above reference levels in 65% of the preoperative patients but dropped significantly 1 month postoperatively, serum insulin and leptin levels and the HOMA index also decreasing significantly in the same period. The percentage of patients with preoperative elevated serum insulin and leptin relative to reference levels decreased significantly following RYGBP. We also observed a weak but significant correlation between BMI and glucose, BMI and insulin, and leptin and insulin.Conclusions: the beneficial effects of bariatric surgery are already noticeable 1 month postoperatively, the reduction in insulin levels being more important for leptin reduction than decreased BMI. Leptin appeared to be subject to multifactorial control and showed a larger reduction than body weight.