TIME SERIES ANALYSIS AS INPUT FOR PREDICTIVE MODELING: PREDICTING CARDIAC ARREST IN A PEDIATRIC INTENSIVE CARE UNIT

The first manuscript, entitled "Time-Series Analysis as Input for Clinical Predictive Modeling: Modeling Cardiac Arrest in a Pediatric ICU" lays out the theoretical background for the project. There are several core concepts presented in this paper. First, traditional multivariate models (where each variable is represented by only one value) provide single point-in-time snapshots of patient status: they are incapable of characterizing deterioration. Since deterioration is consistently identified as a precursor to cardiac arrests, we maintain that the traditional multivariate paradigm is insufficient for predicting arrests. We identify time series analysis as a method capable of characterizing deterioration in an objective, mathematical fashion, and describe how to build a general foundation for predictive modeling using time series analysis results as latent variables. Building a solid foundation for any given modeling task involves addressing a number of issues during the design phase. These include selecting the proper candidate features on which to base the model, and selecting the most appropriate tool to measure them. We also identified several unique design issues that are introduced when time series data elements are added to the set of candidate features. One such issue is in defining the duration and resolution of time series elements required to sufficiently characterize the time series phenomena being considered as candidate features for the predictive model. Once the duration and resolution are established, there must also be explicit mathematical or statistical operations that produce the time series analysis result to be used as a latent candidate feature. In synthesizing the comprehensive framework for building a predictive model based on time series data elements, we identified at least four classes of data that can be used in the model design. The first two classes are shared with traditional multivariate models: multivariate data and clinical latent features. Multivariate data is represented by the standard one value per variable paradigm and is widely employed in a host of clinical models and tools. These are often represented by a number present in a given cell of a table. Clinical latent features derived, rather than directly measured, data elements that more accurately represent a particular clinical phenomenon than any of the directly measured data elements in isolation. The second two classes are unique to the time series data elements. The first of these is the raw data elements. These are represented by multiple values per variable, and constitute the measured observations that are typically available to end users when they review time series data. These are often represented as dots on a graph. The final class of data results from performing time series analysis. This class of data represents the fundamental concept on which our hypothesis is based. The specific statistical or mathematical operations are up to the modeler to determine, but we generally recommend that a variety of analyses be performed in order to maximize the likelihood that a representation of the time series data elements is produced that is able to distinguish between two or more classes of outcomes. The second manuscript, entitled "Building Clinical Prediction Models Using Time Series Data: Modeling Cardiac Arrest in a Pediatric ICU" provides a detailed description, start to finish, of the methods required to prepare the data, build, and validate a predictive model that uses the time series data elements determined in the first paper. One of the fundamental tenets of the second paper is that manual implementations of time series based models are unfeasible due to the relatively large number of data elements and the complexity of preprocessing that must occur before data can be presented to the model. Each of the seventeen steps is analyzed from the perspective of how it may be automated, when necessary. We identify the general objectives and available strategies of each of the steps, and we present our rationale for choosing a specific strategy for each step in the case of predicting cardiac arrest in a pediatric intensive care unit. Another issue brought to light by the second paper is that the individual steps required to use time series data for predictive modeling are more numerous and more complex than those used for modeling with traditional multivariate data. Even after complexities attributable to the design phase (addressed in our first paper) have been accounted for, the management and manipulation of the time series elements (the preprocessing steps in particular) are issues that are not present in a traditional multivariate modeling paradigm. In our methods, we present the issues that arise from the time series data elements: defining a reference time; imputing and reducing time series data in order to conform to a predefined structure that was specified during the design phase; and normalizing variable families rather than individual variable instances. The final manuscript, entitled: "Using Time-Series Analysis to Predict Cardiac Arrest in a Pediatric Intensive Care Unit" presents the results that were obtained by applying the theoretical construct and its associated methods (detailed in the first two papers) to the case of cardiac arrest prediction in a pediatric intensive care unit. Our results showed that utilizing the trend analysis from the time series data elements reduced the number of classification errors by 73%. The area under the Receiver Operating Characteristic curve increased from a baseline of 87% to 98% by including the trend analysis. In addition to the performance measures, we were also able to demonstrate that adding raw time series data elements without their associated trend analyses improved classification accuracy as compared to the baseline multivariate model, but diminished classification accuracy as compared to when just the trend analysis features were added (ie, without adding the raw time series data elements). We believe this phenomenon was largely attributable to overfitting, which is known to increase as the ratio of candidate features to class examples rises. Furthermore, although we employed several feature reduction strategies to counteract the overfitting problem, they failed to improve the performance beyond that which was achieved by exclusion of the raw time series elements. Finally, our data demonstrated that pulse oximetry and systolic blood pressure readings tend to start diminishing about 10-20 minutes before an arrest, whereas heart rates tend to diminish rapidly less than 5 minutes before an arrest.

Building the View Graph of a Category by Exploiting Image Realism

We propose a weakly supervised method to arrange images of a given category based on the relative pose between the camera and the object in the scene. Relative poses are points on a sphere centered at the object in a given canonical pose, which we call object viewpoints. Our method builds a graph on this sphere by assigning images with similar viewpoint to the same node and by connecting nodes if they are related by a small rotation. The key idea is to exploit a large unlabeled dataset to validate the likelihood of dominant 3D planes of the object geometry. A number of 3D plane hypotheses are evaluated by applying small 3D rotations to each hypothesis and by measuring how well the deformed images match other images in the dataset. Correct hypotheses will result in deformed images that correspond to plausible views of the object, and thus will likely match well other images in the same category. The identified 3D planes are then used to compute affinities between images related by a change of viewpoint. We then use the affinities to build a view graph via a greedy method and the maximum spanning tree.

Experimentel ADS-B based surveillance

This paper describes an ADS-B implementation in air-to-air and ground based experimental surveillance within a prototype ATM system. The relations between airborne and ground systems related to surveillance are detailed, and the prototype surveillance systems and their algorithms described. Their performance is analysed, based both on simulated and real data.

New methods for the estimation of Takagi-Sugeno model based extended Kalman filter and its applications to optimal control for nonlinear systems

This paper describes new approaches to improve the local and global approximation (matching) and modeling capability of Takagi–Sugeno (T-S) fuzzy model. The main aim is obtaining high function approximation accuracy and fast convergence. The main problem encountered is that T-S identification method cannot be applied when the membership functions are overlapped by pairs. This restricts the application of the T-S method because this type of membership function has been widely used during the last 2 decades in the stability, controller design of fuzzy systems and is popular in industrial control applications. The approach developed here can be considered as a generalized version of T-S identification method with optimized performance in approximating nonlinear functions. We propose a noniterative method through weighting of parameters approach and an iterative algorithm by applying the extended Kalman filter, based on the same idea of parameters’ weighting. We show that the Kalman filter is an effective tool in the identification of T-S fuzzy model. A fuzzy controller based linear quadratic regulator is proposed in order to show the effectiveness of the estimation method developed here in control applications. An illustrative example of an inverted pendulum is chosen to evaluate the robustness and remarkable performance of the proposed method locally and globally in comparison with the original T-S model. Simulation results indicate the potential, simplicity, and generality of the algorithm. An illustrative example is chosen to evaluate the robustness. In this paper, we prove that these algorithms converge very fast, thereby making them very practical to use.

3D Object following based on visual information for Unmanned Aerial Vehicles

This article presents a novel system and a control strategy for visual following of a 3D moving object by an Unmanned Aerial Vehicle UAV. The presented strategy is based only on the visual information given by an adaptive tracking method based on the color information, which jointly with the dynamics of a camera fixed to a rotary wind UAV are used to develop an Image-based visual servoing IBVS system. This system is focused on continuously following a 3D moving target object, maintaining it with a fixed distance and centered on the image plane. The algorithm is validated on real flights on outdoors scenarios, showing the robustness of the proposed systems against winds perturbations, illumination and weather changes among others. The obtained results indicate that the proposed algorithms is suitable for complex controls task, such object following and pursuit, flying in formation, as well as their use for indoor navigation

Improvement for detection of microcalcifications through clustering algorithms and artificial neural networks

A new method for detecting microcalcifications in regions of interest (ROIs) extracted from digitized mammograms is proposed. The top-hat transform is a technique based on mathematical morphology operations and, in this paper, is used to perform contrast enhancement of the mi-crocalcifications. To improve microcalcification detection, a novel image sub-segmentation approach based on the possibilistic fuzzy c-means algorithm is used. From the original ROIs, window-based features, such as the mean and standard deviation, were extracted; these features were used as an input vector in a classifier. The classifier is based on an artificial neural network to identify patterns belonging to microcalcifications and healthy tissue. Our results show that the proposed method is a good alternative for automatically detecting microcalcifications, because this stage is an important part of early breast cancer detection

Application of the Extended Kalman filter to fuzzy modeling: Algorithms and practical implementation

Modeling phase is fundamental both in the analysis process of a dynamic system and the design of a control system. If this phase is in-line is even more critical and the only information of the system comes from input/output data. Some adaptation algorithms for fuzzy system based on extended Kalman filter are presented in this paper, which allows obtaining accurate models without renounce the computational efficiency that characterizes the Kalman filter, and allows its implementation in-line with the process

Improved Animal Tracking Algorithm using Distributed Kalman Filter-based Algortihms

Animal tracking has been addressed by different initiatives over the last two decades. Most of them rely on satellite connectivity on every single node and lack of energy-saving strategies. This paper presents several new contributions on the tracking of dynamic heterogeneous asynchronous networks (primary nodes with GPS and secondary nodes with a kinetic generator) motivated by the animal tracking paradigm with random transmissions. A simple approach based on connectivity and coverage intersection is compared with more sophisticated algorithms based on ad-hoc implementations of distributed Kalman-based filters that integrate measurement information using Consensus principles in order to provide enhanced accuracy. Several simulations varying the coverage range, the random behavior of the kinetic generator (modeled as a Poisson Process) and the periodic activation of GPS are included. In addition, this study is enhanced with HW developments and implementations on commercial off-the-shelf equipment which show the feasibility for performing these proposals on real hardware.

High Performance Algorithms and Implementations Using Sparse and Parallelization Techniques on MBS

In this paper we will see how the efficiency of the MBS simulations can be improved in two different ways, by considering both an explicit and implicit semi-recursive formulation. The explicit method is based on a double velocity transformation that involves the solution of a redundant but compatible system of equations. The high computational cost of this operation has been drastically reduced by taking into account the sparsity pattern of the system. Regarding this, the goal of this method is the introduction of MA48, a high performance mathematical library provided by Harwell Subroutine Library. The second method proposed in this paper has the particularity that, depending on the case, between 70 and 85% of the computation time is devoted to the evaluation of forces derivatives with respect to the relative position and velocity vectors. Keeping in mind that evaluating these derivatives can be decomposed into concurrent tasks, the main goal of this paper lies on a successful and straightforward parallel implementation that have led to a substantial improvement with a speedup of 3.2 by keeping all the cores busy in a quad-core processor and distributing the workload between them, achieving on this way a huge time reduction by doing an ideal CPU usage

Image Segmentation Using Ant System-based Clustering Algorithm

Industrial applications of computer vision sometimes require detection of atypical objects that occur as small groups of pixels in digital images. These objects are difficult to single out because they are small and randomly distributed. In this work we propose an image segmentation method using the novel Ant System-based Clustering Algorithm (ASCA). ASCA models the foraging behaviour of ants, which move through the data space searching for high data-density regions, and leave pheromone trails on their path. The pheromone map is used to identify the exact number of clusters, and assign the pixels to these clusters using the pheromone gradient. We applied ASCA to detection of microcalcifications in digital mammograms and compared its performance with state-of-the-art clustering algorithms such as 1D Self-Organizing Map, k-Means, Fuzzy c-Means and Possibilistic Fuzzy c-Means. The main advantage of ASCA is that the number of clusters needs not to be known a priori. The experimental results show that ASCA is more efficient than the other algorithms in detecting small clusters of atypical data.

An image segmentation based on a genetic algorithm for determining soil coverage by crop residues

Determination of the soil coverage by crop residues after ploughing is a fundamental element of Conservation Agriculture. This paper presents the application of genetic algorithms employed during the fine tuning of the segmentation process of a digital image with the aim of automatically quantifying the residue coverage. In other words, the objective is to achieve a segmentation that would permit the discrimination of the texture of the residue so that the output of the segmentation process is a binary image in which residue zones are isolated from the rest. The RGB images used come from a sample of images in which sections of terrain were photographed with a conventional camera positioned in zenith orientation atop a tripod. The images were taken outdoors under uncontrolled lighting conditions. Up to 92% similarity was achieved between the images obtained by the segmentation process proposed in this paper and the templates made by an elaborate manual tracing process. In addition to the proposed segmentation procedure and the fine tuning procedure that was developed, a global quantification of the soil coverage by residues for the sampled area was achieved that differed by only 0.85% from the quantification obtained using template images. Moreover, the proposed method does not depend on the type of residue present in the image. The study was conducted at the experimental farm “El Encín” in Alcalá de Henares (Madrid, Spain).

A flexible (C)LP-based approach to the analysis of object-oriented programs

Static analyses of object-oriented programs usually rely on intermediate representations that respect the original semantics while having a more uniform and basic syntax. Most of the work involving object-oriented languages and abstract interpretation usually omits the description of that language or just refers to the Control Flow Graph(CFG) it represents. However, this lack of formalization on one hand results in an absence of assurances regarding the correctness of the transformation and on the other it typically strongly couples the analysis to the source language. In this work we present a framework for analysis of object-oriented languages in which in a first phase we transform the input program into a representation based on Horn clauses. This allows on one hand proving the transformation correct attending to a simple condition and on the other being able to apply an existing analyzer for (constraint) logic programming to automatically derive a safe approximation of the semantics of the original program. The approach is flexible in the sense that the first phase decouples the analyzer from most languagedependent features, and correct because the set of Horn clauses returned by the transformation phase safely approximates the standard semantics of the input program. The resulting analysis is also reasonably scalable due to the use of mature, modular (C)LP-based analyzers. The overall approach allows us to report results for medium-sized programs.

Multi-objective Estimation of Distribution Algorithm Based on Joint Modeling of Objectives and Variables

This paper proposes a new multi-objective estimation of distribution algorithm (EDA) based on joint modeling of objectives and variables. This EDA uses the multi-dimensional Bayesian network as its probabilistic model. In this way it can capture the dependencies between objectives, variables and objectives, as well as the dependencies learnt between variables in other Bayesian network-based EDAs. This model leads to a problem decomposition that helps the proposed algorithm to find better trade-off solutions to the multi-objective problem. In addition to Pareto set approximation, the algorithm is also able to estimate the structure of the multi-objective problem. To apply the algorithm to many-objective problems, the algorithm includes four different ranking methods proposed in the literature for this purpose. The algorithm is applied to the set of walking fish group (WFG) problems, and its optimization performance is compared with an evolutionary algorithm and another multi-objective EDA. The experimental results show that the proposed algorithm performs significantly better on many of the problems and for different objective space dimensions, and achieves comparable results on some compared with the other algorithms.

Optimized algorithms for the incremental analysis of logic programs

Global analysis of logic programs can be performed effectively by the use of one of several existing efficient algorithms. However, the traditional global analysis scheme in which all the program code is known in advance and no previous analysis information is available is unsatisfactory in many situations. Incrementa! analysis of logic programs has been shown to be feasible and much more efficient in certain contexts than traditional (non-incremental) global analysis. However, incremental analysis poses additional requirements on the fixpoint algorithm used. In this work we identify these requirements, present an important class of strategies meeting the requirements, present sufficient a priori conditions for such strategies, and propose, implement, and evalúate experimentally a novel algorithm for incremental analysis based on these ideas. The experimental results show that the proposed algorithm performs very efficiently in the incremental case while being comparable to (and, in some cases, considerably better than) other state-of-the-art analysis algorithms even for the non-incremental case. We argüe that our discussions, results, and experiments also shed light on some of the many tradeoffs involved in the design of algorithms for logic program analysis.

B-LOG: A branch and bound methodology for the parallel execution of logic programs

We propose a computational methodology -"B-LOG"-, which offers the potential for an effective implementation of Logic Programming in a parallel computer. We also propose a weighting scheme to guide the search process through the graph and we apply the concepts of parallel "branch and bound" algorithms in order to perform a "best-first" search using an information theoretic bound. The concept of "session" is used to speed up the search process in a succession of similar queries. Within a session, we strongly modify the bounds in a local database, while bounds kept in a global database are weakly modified to provide a better initial condition for other sessions. We also propose an implementation scheme based on a database machine using "semantic paging", and the "B-LOG processor" based on a scoreboard driven controller.