The Making of Optimal and Consistent Policy: An Implementation Theory Framework for Monetary Policy

This paper shows that optimal policy and consistent policy outcomes require the use of control-theory and game-theory solution techniques. While optimal policy and consistent policy often produce different outcomes even in a one-period model, we analyze consistent policy and its outcome in a simple model, finding that the cause of the inconsistency with optimal policy traces to inconsistent targets in the social loss function. As a result, the social loss function cannot serve as a direct loss function for the central bank. Accordingly, we employ implementation theory to design a central bank loss function (mechanism design) with consistent targets, while the social loss function serves as a social welfare criterion. That is, with the correct mechanism design for the central bank loss function, optimal policy and consistent policy become identical. In other words, optimal policy proves implementable (consistent).

Deterrence and Incapacitation: Towards a Unified Theory of Criminal Punishment

Economic models of crime have focused primarily on the goal of deterrence; the goal of incapacitation has received much less attention. This paper adapts the standard deterrence model to incorporate incapacitation. When prison only is used, incapacitation can result in a longer or a shorter optimal prison term compared to the deterrence-only model. It is longer if there is underdeterrence, and shorter if there is overdeterrence. In contrast, when a fine is available and it is not constrained by the offender's wealth, the optimal prison term is zero. Since the fine achieves first-best deterrence, only efficient crimes are committed and hence, there is no gain from incapacitation.

Theory of uncertainty in illness in patients with cancer of unknown primary origin: Structure providers as antecedents of uncertainty in a population of cancer patients with an unknown primary diagnosis

Uncertainty has been found to be a major component of the cancer experience and can dramatically affect psychosocial adaptation and outcomes of a patient's disease state (McCormick, 2002). Patients with a diagnosis of Carcinoma of Unknown Primary (CUP) may experience higher levels of uncertainty due to the unpredictability of current and future symptoms, limited treatment options and an undetermined life expectancy. To date, only one study has touched upon uncertainty and its' effects on those with CUP but no information exists concerning the effects of uncertainty regarding diagnosis and treatment on the distress level and psychosocial adjustment of this population (Parker & Lenzi, 2003). ^ Mishel's Uncertainty in Illness Theory (1984) proposes that uncertainty is preceded by three variables, one of which being Structure Providers. Structure Providers include credible authority, the degree of trust and confidence the patient has with their doctor, education and social support. It was the goal of this study to examine the relationship between uncertainty and Structure Providers to support the following hypotheses: (1) There will be a negative association between credible authority and uncertainty, (2) There will be a negative association between education level and uncertainty, and (3) There will be a negative association between social support and uncertainty. ^ This cross-sectional analysis utilized data from 219 patients following their initial consultation with their oncologist. Data included the Mishel Uncertainty in Illness Scale (MUIS) which was used to determine patients' uncertainty levels, the Medical Outcomes Study-Social Support Scale (MOSS-SSS) to assess patients, levels of social support, the Patient Satisfaction Questionnaire (PSQ-18) and the Cancer Diagnostic Interview Scale (CDIS) to measure credible authority and general demographic information to assess age, education, marital status and ethnicity. ^ In this study we found that uncertainty levels were generally higher in this sample as compared to other types of cancer populations. And while our results seemed to support most of our hypothesis, we were only able to show significant associations between two. The analyses indicated that credible authority measured by both the CDIS and the PSQ was a significant predictor of uncertainty as was social support measured by the MOSS-SS. Education has shown to have an inconsistent pattern of effect in relation to uncertainty and in the current study there was not enough data to significantly support our hypothesis. ^ The results of this study generally support Mishel's Theory of Uncertainty in Illness and highlight the importance of taking into consideration patients, psychosocial factors as well as employing proper communication practices between physicians and their patients.^

Perceived risk and outcome expectancy on the practice of home infusion technique in a hemophilia population

This study described home infusion techniques and practices, measured the perceived risk of HIV and hepatitis transmission to self and others, and measured the outcome expectancy of following risk reduction guidelines for 90 hemophilia patients and/or their infusion assistants. It also assessed general knowledge of HIV and hepatitis information for the same population.^ The study subjects were hemophilia patients or their infusion assistants from the Gulf States Hemophilia Center in Houston, the El Paso Satellite Hemophilia Clinic in El Paso, or Texas members of the Women Outreach Network of the National Hemophilia Foundation (WONN) group. Each subject was interviewed either by telephone or in person. The questionnaire used was developed for the study and consisted of 60 items. These items assessed general demographics for the patients and assistants, including questions about their training to do infusions as well as the actual practices, measured perceived personal risk for the transmission of HIV or hepatitis to the assistants, perceived risk of transmission of HIV or hepatitis to others for assistants and self-infusers, and the outcome expectancy for following recommended risk reduction guidelines also for both groups.^ The theoretical framework used assumed that perceived risk and outcome expectancy would be predictive of behavior. The findings did not support this theory. Instead, the findings suggest that infusion behavior is habitual in nature; most respondents perform exactly the same behavior for every infusion. Since none of the variables selected were predictive of the compliance behavior for home infusion the teaching method should be directed towards mastery learning, or learning that will incorporate the correct behavior into a habitual pattern of home infusion. ^

AN ANALYSIS OF THE GENERAL WELL-BEING OF BLACKS AND WHITES

The importance of race as a factor in mental health status has been a topic of controversy. This study reviews the history of research in this area and examines racial variances in the relationship between selected socio-demographic variables and general well-being. The study also examines the appropriateness of an additive versus an interactive statistical model for this investigation.^ The sample consists of 6,913 persons who completed the General Well-Being Schedules as administered in the detailed component of the first National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES I) conducted by the National Center for Health Statistics between April, 1971 and October, 1975. The sampling design is a multistage, probability sample of clusters of persons in area based segments. Of the 6,913 persons, 873 are Black.^ Unlike other recent community based mental health studies, this study revealed significant differences between the general well-being of Blacks and Whites. Blacks continued to exhibit significantly lower levels of well-being even after adjustments were made for income, education, marital status, sex, age and place of residence. Statistical interaction was found between race and sex with Black females reporting lower levels of well-being than either Black or White males or their White female counterparts.^ The study includes a detailed review of the NHANES I sample design. It is shown that selected aspects of the design make it difficult to render appropriate national comparisons of Black-White differences. As a result conclusions pertaining to these differences based on NHANES I may be of questionable validity. ^

Evaluation of elevator shafts as a pathway for fungal spores and particles to enter a hospital housing immuno-compromised patients

Background. It is estimated that hospitals spend between 28 and 33 billion dollars per year as a result of hospital-acquired infections. (Scott, 2009) The costs continue to rise despite the guidance and controls provided by hospital infection control staff to reduce patient exposures to fungal spores and other infectious agents. With all processes and controls in place, the vented elevator shaft represents an unprotected opening from the top of the building to the lower floors. The hypothesis for this prospective study is that there is a positive correlation between the number of Penicillium/Aspergillus-like spores, Cladosporium, ascospores, basidiospores in spores/m3 as individual spore categories found in the hoistway vent of an elevator shaft and the levels of the same spores, sampled near-simultaneously in the outdoor intake of the elevator shaft. Specific aims of this study include determining if external Penicillium/Aspergillus-like spores are entering the healthcare facility via the elevator shaft and hoistway vents. Additional aims include determining levels of Penicillium/Aspergillus-like spores outdoors, in the elevator shafts, and indoors in areas possibly affected by elevator shaft air; and, finally, to evaluate whether any effect is observed due to the installation of a hoistway vent damper, installed serendipitously during this study. ^ Methods. Between April 2010 and September 2010, a total of 3,521 air samples were collected, including 363 spore trap samples analyzed microscopically for seven spore types, and polymerase chain reaction analyses on 254 air samples. 2178 particle count measurements, 363 temperature readings and 363 relative humidity readings were also obtained from 7 different locations potentially related to the path of air travel inside and near a centrally-located and representative elevator shaft. ^ Results. Mean Penicillium/Aspergillus-like spore values were higher outside the building (530 spores/m3 of air) than inside the hoistway (22.8 spores/m3) during the six month study. Mean values inside the hospital were lower than outside throughout the study, ranging from 15 to 73 spores/m3 of air. Mean Penicillium/Aspergillus-like spore counts inside the hoistway decreased from 40.1 spores/m3 of air to 9 spores/m3 of air following the installation of a back draft damper between the outside air and the elevator shaft. Comparison of samples collected outside the building and inside the hoistway vent prior to installing the damper indicated a strong positive correlation (Spearman's Rho=0.8008, p=0.0001). The similar comparison following the damper installation indicated a moderate non-significant inverse correlation (Spearman's rho = −0.2795, p=0.1347). ^ Conclusion. Elevator shafts are one pathway for mold spores to enter a healthcare facility. A significant correlation was detected between spores and particle counts inside the hoistway and outside prior to changes in the ventilation system. The insertion of the back draft damper appeared to lower the spore counts inside the hoistway and inside the building. The mold spore counts in air outside the study building were higher in the period following the damper installation while the levels inside the hoistway and hospital decreased. Cladosporium and Penicillium/Aspergillus -like spores provided a method for evaluating indoor air quality as a natural tracer from outside the building to inside the building. Ascospores and basidiospores were not a valuable tracer due to low levels of detection during this study. ^ Installation of a back draft damper provides additional protection for the indoor environment of a hospital or healthcare facility, including in particular patients who may be immunocompromised. Current design standards and references do not require the installation of a back draft damper, but evaluation of adding language to relevant building codes should be considered. The data indicate a reduction in levels of Penicillium/Aspergillus -like spores, particle counts and a reduction in relative humidity inside of the elevator shaft after damper installation.^

Comparison of TEX86 and UK'37 temperature proxies in sinking particles in the Cariaco Basin

The Cariaco Basin, a silled, permanently anoxic basin on the continental shelf of Venezuela with a dynamic chemocline (-240-350 m), has been subject of > 20 years of oceanographic observation and sediment trap studies. We evaluated UK'37 and the TEX86 temperature proxies using sinking particles collected in shallow sediment trap samples at 275 m (Trap A) and 455 m (Trap B) (within and below the chemocline). The organic geochemical temperature proxies, UK'37. (based on coccolithophorid alkenone lipids) and TEX86 (based on archaeal glycerol dialkyl glycerol tetraether (GDGT) lipids), use observed relationships between the ratio of specific lipids and measured sea surface temperature to hindcast past sea surface temperatures. In this study, both UK'37 and TEX86 temperature proxies record seasonal temperature variations, including the cooling associated with upwelling events. UK'37-based temperatures are colder than measured sea surface temperatures, and better correlated temperature at the chlorophyll maximum. In sediment trap material collected below the chemocline (Trap B), UK'37 values are higher than those in Trap A. Warmer subchemocline UK'37 based temperatures may be related to autooxidation of sinking particles, either by small amounts of available oxygen or by alternate electron acceptors concentrated in the biologically dynamic chemocline (e.g. intermediate sulfur compounds). The absolute flux weighted TEX86 temperature values measured in sinking particles from Trap A match the measured SST well. The differences in the TEX86 values between Traps A and B are small and reflect less impact of degradation. Overall, the TEX86 temperatures in sinking particles in the Cariaco Basin reflect annual SST.

General descriptions, organic contents and ratios of geolipid components at DSDP Holes 75-530B and 75-532

Distributions of free and bound n-alkanes, n-alkanoic acids, and n-alkanols were determined in order to compare the character of organic matter contained in organic-carbon-rich sediments from two sites sampled by the hydraulic piston corer. Two diatomaceous debris-flow samples of Pleistocene age were obtained from Hole 530B in the Angola Basin. A sample of bioturbated Pleistocene diatomaceous clay and another of bioturbated late Miocene nannofossil clay were collected from Hole 532 on the Walvis Ridge. Geolipid distributions of all samples contain large terrigenous contributions and lesser amounts of marine components. Similarities in organic matter contents of Hole 530B and Hole 532 sediments suggest that a common depositional setting, probably on the Walvis Ridge, was the original source of these sediments through Quaternary, and possibly late Neogene, times and that downslope relocation of these biogenic deposits has frequently occurred.

Topsoil properties and abundance of Acari and Collembola species in northern Victoria Land, Antarctica

Soil fauna in the extreme conditions of Antarctica consists of a few microinvertebrate species patchily distributed at different spatial scales. Populations of the prostigmatic mite Stereotydeus belli and the collembolan Gressittacantha terranova from northern Victoria Land (Antarctica) were used as models to study the effect of soil properties on microarthropod distributions. In agreement with the general assumption that the development and distribution of life in these ecosystems is mainly controlled by abiotic factors, we found that the probability of occurrence of S. belli depends on soil moisture and texture and on the sampling period (which affects the general availability of water); surprisingly, none of the analysed variables were significantly related to the G. terranova distribution. Based on our results and literature data, we propose a theoretical model that introduces biotic interactions among the major factors driving the local distribution of collembolans in Antarctic terrestrial ecosystems.