A global perspective on Langmuir turbulence in the ocean surface boundary layer.

The turbulent mixing in thin ocean surface boundary layers (OSBL), which occupy the upper 100 m or so of the ocean, control the exchange of heat and trace gases between the atmosphere and ocean. Here we show that current parameterizations of this turbulent mixing lead to systematic and substantial errors in the depth of the OSBL in global climate models, which then leads to biases in sea surface temperature. One reason, we argue, is that current parameterizations are missing key surface-wave processes that force Langmuir turbulence that deepens the OSBL more rapidly than steady wind forcing. Scaling arguments are presented to identify two dimensionless parameters that measure the importance of wave forcing against wind forcing, and against buoyancy forcing. A global perspective on the occurrence of waveforced turbulence is developed using re-analysis data to compute these parameters globally. The diagnostic study developed here suggests that turbulent energy available for mixing the OSBL is under-estimated without forcing by surface waves. Wave-forcing and hence Langmuir turbulence could be important over wide areas of the ocean and in all seasons in the Southern Ocean. We conclude that surfacewave- forced Langmuir turbulence is an important process in the OSBL that requires parameterization.

An earth-system prediction initiative for the twenty-first century

The necessity and benefits for establishing the international Earth-system Prediction Initiative (EPI) are discussed by scientists associated with the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) World Weather Research Programme (WWRP), World Climate Research Programme (WCRP), International Geosphere–Biosphere Programme (IGBP), Global Climate Observing System (GCOS), and natural-hazards and socioeconomic communities. The proposed initiative will provide research and services to accelerate advances in weather, climate, and Earth system prediction and the use of this information by global societies. It will build upon the WMO, the Group on Earth Observations (GEO), the Global Earth Observation System of Systems (GEOSS) and the International Council for Science (ICSU) to coordinate the effort across the weather, climate, Earth system, natural-hazards, and socioeconomic disciplines. It will require (i) advanced high-performance computing facilities, supporting a worldwide network of research and operational modeling centers, and early warning systems; (ii) science, technology, and education projects to enhance knowledge, awareness, and utilization of weather, climate, environmental, and socioeconomic information; (iii) investments in maintaining existing and developing new observational capabilities; and (iv) infrastructure to transition achievements into operational products and services.

Importance of oceanic resolution and mean state on the extra-tropical response to El Niño in a matrix of coupled models

The extra-tropical response to El Niño in configurations of a coupled model with increased horizontal resolution in the oceanic component is shown to be more realistic than in configurations with a low resolution oceanic component. This general conclusion is independent of the atmospheric resolution. Resolving small-scale processes in the ocean produces a more realistic oceanic mean state, with a reduced cold tongue bias, which in turn allows the atmospheric model component to be forced more realistically. A realistic atmospheric basic state is critical in order to represent Rossby wave propagation in response to El Niño, and hence the extra-tropical response to El Niño. Through the use of high and low resolution configurations of the forced atmospheric-only model component we show that, in isolation, atmospheric resolution does not significantly affect the simulation of the extra-tropical response to El Niño. It is demonstrated, through perturbations to the SST forcing of the atmospheric model component, that biases in the climatological SST field typical of coupled model configurations with low oceanic resolution can account for the erroneous atmospheric basic state seen in these coupled model configurations. These results highlight the importance of resolving small-scale oceanic processes in producing a realistic large-scale mean climate in coupled models, and suggest that it might may be possible to “squeeze out” valuable extra performance from coupled models through increases to oceanic resolution alone.

Varieties of capitalism and investments in human capital

This paper explores the relationship between national institutional archetypes and investments in training and development. A recent trend within the literature on comparative capitalism has been to explore the nature and extent of heterogeneity within the coordinated market economies (CMEs) of Europe. Based on a review of the existing comparative literature on training and development, and comparative firm-level survey evidence of differences in training and development practices, we both support and critique existing country clusters and argue for a more nuanced and flexible categorization.

Isolation of Actinomyces hyovaginalis from sheep and comparison with isolates obtained from pigs

Actinomyces hyovaginalis, an organism initially described from pigs, was recovered from nine sheep and a moufflon. Further strains of A. hyovaginalis were recovered from five samples from pigs over the same period. 16S rRNA sequencing and extensive phenotyping demonstrated high similarity between the ovine and porcine isolates; however differences with respect to erythritol, adonitol and l-arabitol fermentation were detected. Ovine isolates were made from various sample sites including abscesses and highlight the importance of the accurate identification of the various coryneform isolates which affect sheep. A. hyovaginalis can be added to the growing list of coryneforms which can cause disease in sheep including Corynebacterium pseudotuberculosis, Trueperella pyogenes and Arcanobacterium pluranimalium.

Induction of modular classification rules: using Jmax-pruning

The Prism family of algorithms induces modular classification rules which, in contrast to decision tree induction algorithms, do not necessarily fit together into a decision tree structure. Classifiers induced by Prism algorithms achieve a comparable accuracy compared with decision trees and in some cases even outperform decision trees. Both kinds of algorithms tend to overfit on large and noisy datasets and this has led to the development of pruning methods. Pruning methods use various metrics to truncate decision trees or to eliminate whole rules or single rule terms from a Prism rule set. For decision trees many pre-pruning and postpruning methods exist, however for Prism algorithms only one pre-pruning method has been developed, J-pruning. Recent work with Prism algorithms examined J-pruning in the context of very large datasets and found that the current method does not use its full potential. This paper revisits the J-pruning method for the Prism family of algorithms and develops a new pruning method Jmax-pruning, discusses it in theoretical terms and evaluates it empirically.

Carbon monoxide induces cardiac arrhythmia via induction of the late Na+ current

Our data indicate that the proarrhythmic effects of CO arise from activation of NO synthase, leading to NO-mediated nitrosylation of Na(V)1.5 and to induction of the late Na(+) current. We also show that the antianginal drug ranolazine can abolish CO-induced early after-depolarizations, highlighting a novel approach to the treatment of CO-induced arrhythmias.

Incorporation of a physically based melt pond scheme into the sea ice component of a climate model

The extent and thickness of the Arctic sea ice cover has decreased dramatically in the past few decades with minima in sea ice extent in September 2005 and 2007. These minima have not been predicted in the IPCC AR4 report, suggesting that the sea ice component of climate models should more realistically represent the processes controlling the sea ice mass balance. One of the processes poorly represented in sea ice models is the formation and evolution of melt ponds. Melt ponds accumulate on the surface of sea ice from snow and sea ice melt and their presence reduces the albedo of the ice cover, leading to further melt. Toward the end of the melt season, melt ponds cover up to 50% of the sea ice surface. We have developed a melt pond evolution theory. Here, we have incorporated this melt pond theory into the Los Alamos CICE sea ice model, which has required us to include the refreezing of melt ponds. We present results showing that the presence, or otherwise, of a representation of melt ponds has a significant effect on the predicted sea ice thickness and extent. We also present a sensitivity study to uncertainty in the sea ice permeability, number of thickness categories in the model representation, meltwater redistribution scheme, and pond albedo. We conclude with a recommendation that our melt pond scheme is included in sea ice models, and the number of thickness categories should be increased and concentrated at lower thicknesses.

The credit relationship between Henry III and merchants of Douai and Ypres, 1247-70

This article looks at an important but neglected aspect of medieval sovereign debt, namely ‘accounts payable’ owed by the Crown to merchants and employees. It focuses on the unusually well-documented relationship between Henry III, King of England between 1216 and 1272, and Flemish merchants from the towns of Douai and Ypres, who provided cloth on credit to the royal wardrobe. From the surviving royal documents, we reconstruct the credit advanced to the royal wardrobe by the merchants of Ypres and Douai for each year between 1247 and 1270, together with the king's repayment history. The interactions between the king and the merchants are then analysed. The insights from this analysis are applied to the historical data to explain the trading decisions made by the merchants during this period, as well as why the strategies of the Yprois sometimes differed from those of the Douaissiens.

The performance of football club managers: skill or luck?

This paper evaluates the extent to which the performance of English Premier League football club managers can be attributed to skill or luck when measured separately from the characteristics of the team. We first use a specification that models managerial skill as a fixed effect and we examine the relationship between the number of points earned in league matches and the club’s wage bill, transfer spending, and the extent to which they were hit by absent players through injuries, suspensions or unavailability. We next implement a bootstrapping approach to generate a simulated distribution of average points that could have taken place after the impact of the manager has been removed. The findings suggest that there are a considerable number of highly skilled managers but also several who perform below expectations. The paper proceeds to illustrate how the approach adopted could be used to determine the optimal time for a club to part company with its manager. We are able to identify in advance several managers who the analysis suggests could have been fired earlier and others whose sackings were hard to justify based on their performances.

On the growth of errors in data assimilation systems

Considerable progress has taken place in numerical weather prediction over the last decade. It has been possible to extend predictive skills in the extra-tropics of the Northern Hemisphere during the winter from less than five days to seven days. Similar improvements, albeit on a lower level, have taken place in the Southern Hemisphere. Another example of improvement in the forecasts is the prediction of intense synoptic phenomena such as cyclogenesis which on the whole is quite successful with the most advanced operational models (Bengtsson (1989), Gadd and Kruze (1988)). A careful examination shows that there are no single causes for the improvements in predictive skill, but instead they are due to several different factors encompassing the forecasting system as a whole (Bengtsson, 1985). In this paper we will focus our attention on the role of data-assimilation and the effect it may have on reducing the initial error and hence improving the forecast. The first part of the paper contains a theoretical discussion on error growth in simple data assimilation systems, following Leith (1983). In the second part we will apply the result on actual forecast data from ECMWF. The potential for further forecast improvements within the framework of the present observing system in the two hemispheres will be discussed.

Greater impairment of postprandial triacylglycerol than glucose response in metabolic syndrome subjects with fasting hyperglycaemia

Abstract Objective: Studies have started to question whether a specific component or combinations of metabolic syndrome (MetS) components may be more important in relation to cardiovascular disease risk. Our aim was to examine the impact of the presence of raised fasting glucose as a MetS component on postprandial lipaemia. Methods: Men classified with the MetS underwent a sequential test meal investigation, in which blood samples were taken at regular intervals after a test breakfast (t=0 min) and lunch (t=330 min). Lipids, glucose and insulin were measured in the fasting and postprandial samples. Results: MetS subjects with 3 or 4 components were subdivided into those without (n=34) and with (n=23) fasting hyperglycaemia (≥ 5.6 mmol/l), irrespective of the combination of components. Fasting lipids and insulin were similar in the two groups, with glucose significantly higher in the men with glucose as a MetS component (P<0.001). Following the test meals, there was a higher maximum concentration (maxC), area under the curve (AUC) and incremental AUC (P≤0.016) for the postprandial triacylglycerol (TAG) response in men with fasting hyperglycaemia. Greater glucose AUC (P<0.001) and insulin maxC (P=0.010) was also observed in these individuals after the test meals. Multivariate regression analysis revealed fasting glucose to be an important predictor of the postprandial TAG and glucose response. Conclusion: Our data analysis has revealed a greater impairment of postprandial TAG than glucose response in MetS subjects with raised fasting glucose. The worsening of postprandial lipaemic control may contribute to the greater CVD risk reported in individuals with MetS component combinations which include hyperglycaemia.