Development and validation of a risk model for prediction of hazardous alcohol consumption in general practice attendees : the PredictAL study

Background: Little is known about the risk of progression to hazardous alcohol use in people currently drinking at safe limits. We aimed to develop a prediction model (predictAL) for the development of hazardous drinking in safe drinkers. Methods: A prospective cohort study of adult general practice attendees in six European countries and Chile followed up over 6 months. We recruited 10,045 attendees between April 2003 to February 2005. 6193 European and 2462 Chilean attendees recorded AUDIT scores below 8 in men and 5 in women at recruitment and were used in modelling risk. 38 risk factors were measured to construct a risk model for the development of hazardous drinking using stepwise logistic regression. The model was corrected for over fitting and tested in an external population. The main outcome was hazardous drinking defined by an AUDIT score >= 8 in men and >= 5 in women. Results: 69.0% of attendees were recruited, of whom 89.5% participated again after six months. The risk factors in the final predictAL model were sex, age, country, baseline AUDIT score, panic syndrome and lifetime alcohol problem. The predictAL model's average c-index across all six European countries was 0.839 (95% CI 0.805, 0.873). The Hedge's g effect size for the difference in log odds of predicted probability between safe drinkers in Europe who subsequently developed hazardous alcohol use and those who did not was 1.38 (95% CI 1.25, 1.51). External validation of the algorithm in Chilean safe drinkers resulted in a c-index of 0.781 (95% CI 0.717, 0.846) and Hedge's g of 0.68 (95% CI 0.57, 0.78). Conclusions: The predictAL risk model for development of hazardous consumption in safe drinkers compares favourably with risk algorithms for disorders in other medical settings and can be a useful first step in prevention of alcohol misuse.

Corporate finance in general equilibrium models with incomplete markets: A survey

A Masters Thesis, presented as part of the requirements for the award of a Research Masters Degree in Economics from NOVA – School of Business and Economics

Effects of motive-oriented therapeutic relationship in a ten-session general psychiatric treatment of borderline personality disorder: a randomized controlled trial.

Background: Motive-oriented therapeutic relationship (MOTR) was postulated to be a particularly helpful therapeutic ingredient in the early treatment phase of patients with personality disorders, in particular with borderline personality disorder (BPD). The present randomized controlled study using an add-on design is the first study to test this assumption in a 10-session general psychiatric treatment with patients presenting with BPD on symptom reduction and therapeutic alliance. Methods: A total of 85 patients were randomized. They were either allocated to a manual-based short variant of the general psychiatric management (GPM) treatment (in 10 sessions) or to the same treatment where MOTR was deliberately added to the treatment. Treatment attrition and integrity analyses yielded satisfactory results. Results: The results of the intent-to-treat analyses suggested a global efficacy of MOTR, in the sense of an additional reduction of general problems, i.e. symptoms, interpersonal and social problems (F1, 73 = 7.25, p < 0.05). However, they also showed that MOTR did not yield an additional reduction of specific borderline symptoms. It was also shown that a stronger therapeutic alliance, as assessed by the therapist, developed in MOTR treatments compared to GPM (Z55 = 0.99, p < 0.04). Conclusions: These results suggest that adding MOTR to psychiatric and psychotherapeutic treatments of BPD is promising. Moreover, the findings shed additional light on the perspective of shortening treatments for patients presenting with BPD. © 2014 S. Karger AG, Basel.

Trends in lung cancer among young European women: the rising epidemic in France and Spain.

Lung cancer mortality in young women in the European Union (EU) has steadily increased until the mid 1990 s and has levelled off thereafter, but trends have been heterogeneous in various countries. We analyzed therefore age-standardized trends in lung cancer mortality in young women (20-44) for the 6 major European countries, using joinpoint regression. In the early 1970s the highest lung cancer mortality in young women was in the UK (2.1/100,000). UK rates, however, steadily declined and in 2000-2004 they were the lowest of all 6 major EU countries (1.2/100,000). The second lowest rate in 2000-2002 was in Italy, whose rates remained around 1.1/100,000 between 1970 and 1994, and increased to 1.4 thereafter. In Germany and Poland, lung cancer rates in young women rose from 0.8-1.0/100,000 in the early 1970s to 1.7-1.9 in the mid 1990 s and levelled off during the last decade. Major rises over recent years were observed in France (from 0.8/100,000 in 1985-1989 to 2.2 in 2000-2003) and in Spain (from 0.8 in the 1985-1989 to 1.7 in 2000-2004). Thus, France showed both the highest rate observed over the last 3 decades and the largest rise over the last 2 decades. Since recent trends in the young give relevant information to the likely future trends in middle age, the female lung cancer epidemic is likely to expand in southern Europe from the current rates of 5.0/100,000 in Spain and 7.7 in France to approach 20/100,000 within the next 2-3 decades. Urgent interventions for smoking cessation in women are therefore required.

Major depressive disorders in the general hospital: how to implement guidelines.

OBJECTIVE: An implementation study that evaluated the impact of previously adopted guidelines on the clinical practice of medical residents was conducted to improve the recognition and treatment of major depressive disorders (MDDs) in hospitalized patients with somatic diseases. METHODS: Guidelines were implemented in two wards (ENT and oncology) using intranet diffusion, interactive sessions with medical residents, and support material. Discharge letters of 337 and 325 patients, before and after the intervention, respectively, were checked for statement of diagnosis or treatment of MDDs and, in a post hoc analysis, for any mention about psychiatric management. RESULTS: No difference was found in the number of diagnosed or treated MDDs before and after the intervention. However, significantly more statements about psychological status (29/309 vs. 13/327) and its management (36/309 vs. 19/327) were observed after the intervention (P<.01). CONCLUSION: The intervention was not successful in improving the management of MDDs. However, a possible effect on general psychological aspects of medical diseases was observed.

Advance directives and the impact of timing. A qualitative study with Swiss general practitioners.

PRINCIPLES: Advance directives are seen as an important tool for documenting the wishes of patients who are no longer competent to make decisions in regards to their medical care. Due to their nature, approaching the subject of advance directives with a patient can be difficult for both the medical care provider and the patient. This paper focuses on general practitioners' perspectives regarding the timing at which this discussion should take place, as well as the advantages and disadvantages of the different moments. METHODS: In 2013, 23 semi-structured face-to-face interviews were performed with Swiss general practitioners. Interviews were analysed using qualitative content analysis. RESULTS: In our sample, 23 general practitioners provided different options that they felt were appropriate moments: either (a) when the patient is still healthy, (b) when illness becomes predominant, or (c) when a patient has been transferred to a long-term care facility. Furthermore, general practitioners reported uncertainty and discomfort regarding initiating the discussion. CONCLUSION: The distinct approaches, perspectives and rationales show that there is no well-defined or "right" moment. However, participants often associated advance directives with death. This link caused discomfort and uncertainty, which led to hesitation and delay on the part of general practitioners. Therefore we recommend further training on how to professionally initiate a conversation about advance directives. Furthermore, based on our results and experience, we recommend an early approach with healthy patients paired with later regular updates as it seems to be the most effective way to inform patients about their end-of-life care options.

The alcohol purchase task in young men from the general population.

BACKGROUND: The alcohol purchase task (APT), which presents a scenario and asks participants how many drinks they would purchase and consume at different prices, has been used among students and small clinical samples to obtain measures of alcohol demand but not in large, general population samples. METHODS: We administered the APT to a large sample of young men from the general population (Cohort Study on Substance Use Risk Factors). Participants who reported drinking in the past year (n=4790), reported on past 12 months alcohol use, on DSM-5 alcohol use disorder (AUD) criteria and on alcohol related consequences were included. RESULTS: Among the APT's demand parameters, intensity was 8.7 (SD=6.5) indicating that, when drinks are free, participants report a planned consumption of almost 9 drinks. The maximum alcohol expenditure (Omax) was over 35CHF (1CHF=1.1USD) and the demand became elastic (Pmax) at 8.4CHF (SD=5.6). The mean price at which the consumption was suppressed was 15.6CHF (SD=5.4). Exponential equation provided a satisfactory fit to individual responses (mean R(2): 0.8, median: 0.8). Demand intensity was correlated with alcohol use, number of AUD criteria and number of consequences (all r≥0.3, p<0.0001). Omax was correlated with alcohol use (p<0.0001). The elasticity parameter was weakly correlated with alcohol use in the expected direction. CONCLUSION: The APT measures are useful in characterizing demand for alcohol in young men in the general population. Demand may provide a clinically useful index of strength of motivation for alcohol use in general population samples.

The relation of body mass index and abdominal adiposity with dyslipidemia in 27 general populations of the WHO MONICA Project.

The association between adiposity measures and dyslipidemia has seldom been assessed in a multipopulational setting. 27 populations from Europe, Australia, New Zealand and Canada (WHO MONICA project) using health surveys conducted between 1990 and 1997 in adults aged 35-64 years (n = 40,480). Dyslipidemia was defined as the total/HDL cholesterol ratio >6 (men) and >5 (women). Overall prevalence of dyslipidemia was 25% in men and 23% in women. Logistic regression showed that dyslipidemia was strongly associated with body mass index (BMI) in men and with waist circumference (WC) in women, after adjusting for region, age and smoking. Among normal-weight men and women (BMI<25 kg/m(2)), an increase in the odds for being dyslipidemic was observed between lowest and highest WC quartiles (OR = 3.6, p < 0.001). Among obese men (BMI ≥ 30), the corresponding increase was smaller (OR = 1.2, p = 0.036). A similar weakening was observed among women. Classification tree analysis was performed to assign subjects into classes of risk for dyslipidemia. BMI thresholds (25.4 and 29.2 kg/m(2)) in men and WC thresholds (81.7 and 92.6 cm) in women came out at first stages. High WC (>84.8 cm) in normal-weight men, menopause in women and regular smoking further defined subgroups at increased risk. standard categories of BMI and WC, or their combinations, do not lead to optimal risk stratification for dyslipidemia in middle-age adults. Sex-specific adaptations are necessary, in particular by taking into account abdominal obesity in normal-weight men, post-menopausal age in women and regular smoking in both sexes.

Delirium: guidelines for general hospitals.

OBJECTIVE: Delirium is highly prevalent in general hospitals but remains underrecognized and undertreated despite its association with increased morbidity, mortality, and health services utilization. To enhance its management, we developed guidelines covering all aspects, from risk factor identification to preventive, diagnostic, and therapeutic interventions in adult patients. METHODS: Guidelines, systematic reviews, randomized controlled trials (RCT), and cohort studies were systematically searched and evaluated. Based on a synthesis of retrieved high-quality documents, recommendation items were submitted to a multidisciplinary expert panel. Experts scored the appropriateness of recommendation items, using an evidence-based, explicit, multidisciplinary panel approach. Each recommendation was graded according to this process' results. RESULTS: Rated recommendations were mostly supported by a low level of evidence (1.3% RCT and systematic reviews, 14.3% nonrandomized trials vs. 84.4% observational studies or expert opinions). Nevertheless, 71.1% of recommendations were considered appropriate by the experts. Prevention of delirium and its nonpharmacological management should be fostered. Haloperidol remains the first-choice drug, whereas the role of atypical antipsychotics is still uncertain. CONCLUSIONS: While many topics addressed in these guidelines have not yet been adequately studied, an explicit panel and evidence-based approach allowed the proposal of comprehensive recommendations for the prevention and management of delirium in general hospitals.

Comentario general del crucero de evaluación del recurso merluza ejecutado en otoño de 1995 (Cr. BIC SNP-1, 9505-06)

Presenta las observaciones realizadas desde hace varios años, investigadas por el Instituto del Mar del Perú a través de su programa de seguimiento de pesqueras demersales y costeras, y de la evaluación directa de los stocks de peces de mar.

Comentario general sobre prospección de recursos pelágicos costeros y demersales costeros. E/E Huamanga 9611-12

Describe la actividad pesquera artesanal en el Perú, desarrollada hasta las 20 millas aproximadamente. En esta zona se captura una variedad de recursos hidrobiológicos que en su mayoría son destinados al consumo humano directo, considerando que el nivel de las capturas de la pesca artesanal representan el 43% de los detinados al consumo humano y de éstos el 100% son derivados al consumo fresco.

Comentario general sobre el desarrollo del crucero de evaluación del recurso merluza en invierno de 1996. Cr. BIC SNP-1 9607-08

Describe los aspectos metodológicos aplicados en el desarrollo del crucero de evaluación del recurso merluza en invierno de 1996, consistente en dos etapas: un rastreo acústico basado en un muestréo sistemático con lances de comprobación y una evaluación por área barrida propiamente dicha. Así mismo, presenta la estructura y nivel de la población de merluza, las condiciones oceanográficas y la estructura del subsistema demersal.

Comentario general del crucero de evaluación de biomasa desovante de anchoveta. BIC Humboldt 9608-09

Comenta los resultados más relevantes obtenidos durante el crucero realizado en agosto y setiembre de 1996, para estimar la biomasa desovante de la anchoveta (Engraulis ringens) de la zona norte centro del litoral, a través del método de producción de huevos (MPH). Teniendo como escenario un ambiente frío, con condiciones favorables para la dispersión de la anchoveta, se determinó una biomasa desovante de 4,02 millones de toneladas, magnitud inferior a la estimada en el año 1995. Se detectó una distribución estratificada de la anchoveta, ubicándose los juveniles hacia la costa, y los adultos lejos de ella. Estos últimos evidenciaron una gran avance en el proceso reproductivo, aunque la frecuencia de desove disminuyó comparándola con la de 1995. La producción de huevos también se redujo y la distribución de éstos no se presentó de la forma densa observada años atrás, cuando los adultos se distribuían principalmente dentro de las 30 a 60 millas de la costa.