The structural approach of a natrex model on equilibrium exchange rates

Following a general macroeconomic approach, this paper sets a closed micro-founded structural model to determine the long run real exchange rate of a developed economy. In particular, the analysis follows the structure of a Natrex model. The main contribution of this research paper is the development of a solid theoretical framework that analyse in depth the basis of the real exchange rate and the details of the equilibrium dynamics after any shock influencing the steady state. In our case, the intertemporal factors derived from the stock-flow relationship will be particularly determinant. The main results of the paper can be summarised as follows. In first place, a complete well-integrated structural model for long-run real exchange rate determination is developed from first principles. Moreover, within the concrete dynamics of the model, it is found that some convergence restrictions will be necessary. On one hand, for the medium run convergence the sensitivity of the trade balance to changes in real exchange rate should be higher that the correspondent one to the investment decisions. On the other hand, and regarding long-run convergence, it is also necessary both that there exists a negative relationship between investment and capital stock accumulation and that the global saving of the economy depends positively on net foreign debt accumulation. In addition, there are also interesting conclusions about the effects that certain shocks over the exogenous variables of the model have on real exchange rates.

Do market conditions affect gift exchange? Evidence from experimental markets with excess supply and excess demand

We study whether people's behavior in unbalanced gift exchange markets with repeated interaction are affected by whether they are on the excess supply side or the excess demand side of the market. Our analysis is based on the comparison of behavior between two types of experimental gift exchange markets, which vary only with respect to whether first or second movers are on the long side of the market. The direction of market imbalance could influence subjects' behavior, as second movers (workers) might react differently to favorable actions by first movers (firms) in the two cases. While our data show strong deviations from the standard game-theoretic prediction, we find mainly secondary treatment effects. Wage offers are not higher when there is an excess supply of firms, and workers do not respond more favorably to a given wage when there is an excess supply of labor. The state of competition does not appear to have strong effects in our data. We also present data from single-period sessions that show substantial gift exchange even without repeated interactions.

On the choice of an exchange rate regime: target zones revisited

From the classical gold standard up to the current ERM2 arrangement of the European Union, target zones have been a widely used exchange regime in contemporary history. This paper presents a benchmark model that rationalizes the choice of target zones over the rest of regimes: the fixed rate, the free float and the managed float. It is shown that the monetary authority may gain efficiency by reducing volatility of both the exchange rate and the interest rate at the same time. Furthermore, the model is consistent with some known stylized facts in the empirical literature that previous models were not able to produce, namely, the positive relation between the exchange rate and the interest rate differential, the degree of non-linearity of the function linking the exchage rate to fundamentals and the shape of the exchange rate stochastic distribution.

A proposal for a new specification for a conditionally heteroskedastic variance model: the Quadratic Moving-Average Conditional Heteroskedasticity and an application to the D. Mark-U.S. dollar Exchange Rate

Ever since the appearance of the ARCH model [Engle(1982a)], an impressive array of variance specifications belonging to the same class of models has emerged [i.e. Bollerslev's (1986) GARCH; Nelson's (1990) EGARCH]. This recent domain has achieved very successful developments. Nevertheless, several empirical studies seem to show that the performance of such models is not always appropriate [Boulier(1992)]. In this paper we propose a new specification: the Quadratic Moving Average Conditional heteroskedasticity model. Its statistical properties, such as the kurtosis and the symmetry, as well as two estimators (Method of Moments and Maximum Likelihood) are studied. Two statistical tests are presented, the first one tests for homoskedasticity and the second one, discriminates between ARCH and QMACH specification. A Monte Carlo study is presented in order to illustrate some of the theoretical results. An empirical study is undertaken for the DM-US exchange rate.

Real equilibrium exchange rates. A panel data approach for advanced and emerging economies.

Based on an behavioral equilibrium exchange rate model, this paper examines the determinants of the real effective exchange rate and evaluates the degree of misalignment of a group of currencies since 1980. Within a panel cointegration setting, we estimate the relationship between exchange rate and a set of economic fundamentals, such as traded-nontraded productivity differentials and the stock of foreign assets. Having ascertained the variables are integrated and cointegrated, the long-run equilibrium value of the fundamentals are estimated and used to derive equilibrium exchange rates and misalignments. Although there is statistical homogeneity, some structural differences were found to exist between advanced and emerging economies.

The short and long-run determinants of the real exchange rate in Mexico

This paper explores the real exchange rate behavior in Mexico from 1960 until 2005. Since the empirical analysis reveals that the real exchange rate is not mean reverting, we propose that economic fundamental variables affect its evolution in the long-run. Therefore, based on equilibrium exchange rate paradigms, we propose a simple model of real exchange rate determination which includes the relative labor productivity, the real interest rates and the net foreign assets over a long period of time. Our analysis also considers the dynamic adjustment in response to shocks through impulse response functions derived from the multivariate VAR model.

Market effects of foreign exchange coordinated intervention

In this article we develop a theoretical microstructure model of coordinated central bank intervention based on asymmetric information. We study the economic implications of coordination on some measures of market quality and show that the model predicts higher volatility and more significant exchange rate changes when central banks coordinate compared to when they intervene unilaterally. Both these predictions are in line with empirical evidence. Keywords: coordinated foreign exchange intervention, market microstructure. JEL Classification: D82, E58, F31, G14

An 40Ar/39Ar, Rb/Sr, and stable isotope study of micas in low-grade fold-and-thrust belt: An example from the Swiss Helvetic Alps

White micas in carbonate-rich tectonites and a few other rock types of large thrusts in the Swiss Helvetic fold-and-thrust belt have been analyzed by Ar-40/Ar-39 and Rb/Sr techniques to better constrain the timing of Alpine deformation for this region. Incremental Ar-40/Ar-39 heating experiments of 25 weakly metamorphosed (anchizone to low greenschist) samples yield plateau and staircase spectra. We interpret most of the staircase release spectra result from variable mixtures of syntectonic (neoformed) and detrital micas. The range in dates obtained within individual spectra depends primarily on the duration of mica nucleation and growth, and relative proportions of neoformed and detrital mica. Rb/Sr analyses of 12 samples yield dates of ca. 10-39 Ma (excluding one anomalously young sample). These dates are slightly younger than the Ar-40/Ar-39 total gas dates obtained for the same samples. The Rb/ Sr dates were calculated using initial Sr-87/Sr-86 ratios obtained from the carbonate-dominated host rocks, which are higher than normal Mesozoic carbonate values due to exchange with fluids of higher Sr-87/Sr-86 ratios (and lower O-18/O-16 ratios). Model dates calculated using Sr-87/Sr-86 values typical of Mesozoic marine carbonates more closely approximate the Ar-40/Ar-39 total gas dates for most of the samples. The similarities of Rb/Sr and Ar-40/Ar-39 total gas dates are consistent with limited amounts of detrital mica in the samples. The delta(18)O values range from 24-15%. (VSMOW) for 2-6 mum micas and 27-16parts per thousand for the carbonate host rocks. The carbonate values are significantly lower than their protolith values due to localized fluid-rock interaction and fluid flow along most thrust surfaces. Although most calcite-mica pairs are not in oxygen isotope equilibrium at temperatures of ca. 200-400 degreesC, their isotopic fractionations are indicative of either 1) partial exchange between the minerals and a common external fluid, or 2) growth or isotopic exchange of the mica with the carbonate after the carbonate had isotopically exchanged with an external fluid. The geological significance of these results is not easily or uniquely determined, and exemplifies the difficulties inherent in dating very fine-grained micas of highly deformed tectonites in low-grade metamorphic terranes. Two generalizations can be made regarding the dates obtained from the Helvetic thrusts: 1) samples from the two highest thrusts (Mt. Gond and Sublage) have all of their Ar-40/Ar-39 steps above 20 Ma, and 2) most samples from the deepest Helvetic thrusts have steps (often accounting for more than 80% of Ar-39 release) between 15 and 25 Ma. These dates are consistent with the order of thrusting in the foreland-imbricating system and increase proportions of neoformed to detrital mica in the more metamorphosed hinterland and deeply buried portions of the nappe pile. Individual thrusts accommodated the majority of their displacement during their initial incorporation into the foreland-imbricating system, and some thrusts remained active or were reactivated down to 15 Ma.

Trade of permits for greenhouse gas emissions; bilateral trade need not be the answer

The Kyoto Protocol sets national quotas on CO2 emissions and allows international trade of these quotas. We argue that this trade is characterized by asymmetric, identity-dependent externalities, and show that bilateral trade may not be sufficient for an efficient allocation of emissions. We derive conditions under which bilateral trade does improve the allocation of permits. The conditions are strong. In this sense, we argue that, for emissions permits, market design matters.

Indirect hydrogen analysis by gas chromatography coupled to mass spectrometry (GC-MS).

Gas chromatography (GC) is an analytical tool very useful to investigate the composition of gaseous mixtures. The different gases are separated by specific columns but, if hydrogen (H2 ) is present in the sample, its detection can be performed by a thermal conductivity detector or a helium ionization detector. Indeed, coupled to GC, no other detector can perform this detection except the expensive atomic emission detector. Based on the detection and analysis of H2 isotopes by low-pressure chemical ionization mass spectrometry (MS), a new method for H2 detection by GC coupled to MS with an electron ionization ion source and a quadrupole analyser is presented. The presence of H2 in a gaseous mixture could easily be put in evidence by the monitoring of the molecular ion of the protonated carrier gas. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Validation of an analytical method for nitrous oxide (N2O) laughing gas by headspace gas chromatography coupled to mass spectrometry (HS-GC-MS): Forensic application to a lethal intoxication.

Drug abuse is a widespread problem affecting both teenagers and adults. Nitrous oxide is becoming increasingly popular as an inhalation drug, causing harmful neurological and hematological effects. Some gas chromatography-mass spectrometry (GC-MS) methods for nitrous oxide measurement have been previously described. The main drawbacks of these methods include a lack of sensitivity for forensic applications; including an inability to quantitatively determine the concentration of gas present. The following study provides a validated method using HS-GC-MS which incorporates hydrogen sulfide as a suitable internal standard allowing the quantification of nitrous oxide. Upon analysis, sample and internal standard have similar retention times and are eluted quickly from the molecular sieve 5Å PLOT capillary column and the Porabond Q column therefore providing rapid data collection whilst preserving well defined peaks. After validation, the method has been applied to a real case of N2O intoxication indicating concentrations in a mono-intoxication.

Estudi de la reductibilitat de catalitzadors basats en cobalt i el seu comportament en la reacció de desplaçament de gas d'aigua de CO

Projecte de recerca elaborat a partir d’una estada a la universitat d'Udine, Itàlia, entre setembre i desembre del 2006.S'han caracteritzat mitjançant la reducció a temperatura programada i tests catalítics catalitzadors en pols basats en cobalt i supostats en òxid de zinc i monòlits ceràmics funcionaliltzats també amb cobalt i òxid de zinc. L'addició de promotors (manganès, crom i ferro ) als catalitzadors en pols, preparats per impregnació i precipitació, no afecta significativament ni la temperatura a la qual té lloc la reducció ni al percentatge global de reducció. En els cicles de reducció-oxidació sí que s'observen diferències entre el primer perfil de reducció i els següents, especialment en el cas de la mostra que té ferro com a promotor, on les diferències s'accentuen en cicles successius (fins al quart). S'ha evaluat l'activitat d'aquests catalitzadors en la reacció de desplaçament de gas d'aigua, obtenint uns resultats satisfactoris. Finalment s'han realitzat reduccions a temperatura programada i tests catalítics en la reacció de desplaçament de gas d'aigua amb monòlits funcionalitzats amb cobalt i òxid de zinc (en cap d'ells s'ha introduït promotors). El nivell de conversió assolit és menor que en el cas de catalitzadors en pols, fet que s'associa a la geometria d'aquests sistemes catalítics, però la relació CH4/CO2 és més favorable que en els catalitzadors en pols, el que els converteix en sistemes molt selectius.

Deconstructing Shocks and Persistence in OECD Real Exchange Rates

This paper analyzes the persistence of shocks that affect the real exchange rates for a panel of seventeen OECD developed countries during the post-Bretton Woods era. The adoption of a panel data framework allows us to distinguish two different sources of shocks, i.e. the idiosyncratic and the common shocks, each of which may have di¤erent persistence patterns on the real exchange rates. We first investigate the stochastic properties of the panel data set using panel stationarity tests that simultaneously consider both the presence of cross-section dependence and multiple structural breaks that have not received much attention in previous persistence analyses. Empirical results indicate that real exchange rates are non-stationary when the analysis does not account for structural breaks, although this conclusion is reversed when they are modeled. Consequently, misspecification errors due to the non-consideration of structural breaks leads to upward biased shocks' persistence measures. The persistence measures for the idiosyncratic and common shocks have been estimated in this paper always turn out to be less than one year.

Rapid high-performance liquid chromatographic determination with fluorescence detection of furosemide in human body fluids and its confirmation by gas chromatography-mass spectrometry.

Furosemide (FD: Lasix) is a loop diuretic which strongly increases both urine flow and electrolyte urinary excretion. Healthy volunteers were administered 40 mg orally (dissolved in water) and concentrations of FD were determined in serum and urine for up to 6 h for eight subjects, who absorbed water at a rate of 400 ml/h. Quantification was performed by HPLC with fluorescence detection (excitation at 233 nm, emission at 389 nm) with a limit of detection of 5 ng/ml for a 300-microliters sample. The elution of FD was completed within 4 min using a gradient of acetonitrile concentration rising from 30 to 50% in 0.08 M phosphoric acid. The delay to the peak serum concentration ranged from 60 to 120 min. FD was still easily measurable in the sera from all subjects 6 h after administration. In urine, the excretion rates reached their maximum between 1 and 3 h. The total amount of FD excreted in the urine averaged 11.2 mg (range 7.6-14.0 mg), with a mean urine volume of 3024 ml (range 2620-3596 ml). Moreover, the urine density was lower than 1.010 (recommended as an upper limit in doping analysis to screen diuretics) only for 2 h. An additional volunteer was administered 40 mg of FD and his urine was collected over a longer period. FD was still detectable 48 h after intake. Gas chromatography-mass spectrometry with different types of ionization was used to confirm the occurrence of FD after permethylation of the extract. Negative-ion chemical ionization, with ammonia as reactant gas, was found to be the most sensitive method of detection.