Beyond a battery hen model? : a computer laboratory, micropolitics and educational change

This paper investigates what happened in one Australian primary school as part of the establishment, use and development of a computer laboratory over a period of two years. As part of a school renewal project, the computer lab was introduced as an ‘innovative’ way to improve the skills of teachers and children in information and communication technologies (ICT) and to lead to curriculum change. However, the way in which the lab was conceptualised and used worked against achieving these goals. The micropolitics of educational change and an input-output understanding of computers meant that change remained structural rather pedagogical or philosophical.

Service bid comparisons by fuzzy ranking in open railway market timetabling

In an open railway access market, the Infrastructure Provider (IP), upon the receipts of service bids from the Train Service Providers (TSPs), assigns track access rights according to its own business objectives and the merits of the bids; and produces the train service timetable through negotiations. In practice, IP chooses to negotiate with the TSPs one by one in such a sequence that IP optimizes its objectives. The TSP bids are usually very complicated, containing a large number of parameters in different natures. It is a difficult task even for an expert to give a priority sequence for negotiations from the contents of the bids. This study proposes the application of fuzzy ranking method to compare and prioritize the TSP bids in order to produce a negotiation sequence. The results of this study allow investigations on the behaviors of the stakeholders in bid preparation and negotiation, as well as evaluation of service quality in the open railway market.

Intelligent negotiation behaviour model for an open railway access market

In an open railway access market, the provisions of railway infrastructures and train services are separated and independent. Negotiations between the track owner and train service providers are thus required for the allocation of the track capacity and the formulation of the services timetables, in which each party, i.e. a stakeholder, exhibits intelligence from the previous negotiation experience to obtain the favourable terms and conditions for the track access. In order to analyse the realistic interacting behaviour among the stakeholders in the open railway access market schedule negotiations, intelligent learning capability should be included in the behaviour modelling. This paper presents a reinforcement learning approach on modelling the intelligent negotiation behaviour. The effectiveness of incorporating learning capability in the stakeholder negotiation behaviour is then demonstrated through simulation.

A simultaneous equations model of crash frequency by collision type for rural intersections

Safety at roadway intersections is of significant interest to transportation professionals due to the large number of intersections in transportation networks, the complexity of traffic movements at these locations that leads to large numbers of conflicts, and the wide variety of geometric and operational features that define them. A variety of collision types including head-on, sideswipe, rear-end, and angle crashes occur at intersections. While intersection crash totals may not reveal a site deficiency, over exposure of a specific crash type may reveal otherwise undetected deficiencies. Thus, there is a need to be able to model the expected frequency of crashes by collision type at intersections to enable the detection of problems and the implementation of effective design strategies and countermeasures. Statistically, it is important to consider modeling collision type frequencies simultaneously to account for the possibility of common unobserved factors affecting crash frequencies across crash types. In this paper, a simultaneous equations model of crash frequencies by collision type is developed and presented using crash data for rural intersections in Georgia. The model estimation results support the notion of the presence of significant common unobserved factors across crash types, although the impact of these factors on parameter estimates is found to be rather modest.

Accident prediction model for railway-highway interfaces

Considerable past research has explored relationships between vehicle accidents and geometric design and operation of road sections, but relatively little research has examined factors that contribute to accidents at railway-highway crossings. Between 1998 and 2002 in Korea, about 95% of railway accidents occurred at highway-rail grade crossings, resulting in 402 accidents, of which about 20% resulted in fatalities. These statistics suggest that efforts to reduce crashes at these locations may significantly reduce crash costs. The objective of this paper is to examine factors associated with railroad crossing crashes. Various statistical models are used to examine the relationships between crossing accidents and features of crossings. The paper also compares accident models developed in the United States and the safety effects of crossing elements obtained using Korea data. Crashes were observed to increase with total traffic volume and average daily train volumes. The proximity of crossings to commercial areas and the distance of the train detector from crossings are associated with larger numbers of accidents, as is the time duration between the activation of warning signals and gates. The unique contributions of the paper are the application of the gamma probability model to deal with underdispersion and the insights obtained regarding railroad crossing related vehicle crashes. Considerable past research has explored relationships between vehicle accidents and geometric design and operation of road sections, but relatively little research has examined factors that contribute to accidents at railway-highway crossings. Between 1998 and 2002 in Korea, about 95% of railway accidents occurred at highway-rail grade crossings, resulting in 402 accidents, of which about 20% resulted in fatalities. These statistics suggest that efforts to reduce crashes at these locations may significantly reduce crash costs. The objective of this paper is to examine factors associated with railroad crossing crashes. Various statistical models are used to examine the relationships between crossing accidents and features of crossings. The paper also compares accident models developed in the United States and the safety effects of crossing elements obtained using Korea data. Crashes were observed to increase with total traffic volume and average daily train volumes. The proximity of crossings to commercial areas and the distance of the train detector from crossings are associated with larger numbers of accidents, as is the time duration between the activation of warning signals and gates. The unique contributions of the paper are the application of the gamma probability model to deal with underdispersion and the insights obtained regarding railroad crossing related vehicle crashes.

Forecasting crashes at the planning level: Simultaneous negative binomial crash model applied in Tucson, Arizona

At least two important transportation planning activities rely on planning-level crash prediction models. One is motivated by the Transportation Equity Act for the 21st Century, which requires departments of transportation and metropolitan planning organizations to consider safety explicitly in the transportation planning process. The second could arise from a need for state agencies to establish incentive programs to reduce injuries and save lives. Both applications require a forecast of safety for a future period. Planning-level crash prediction models for the Tucson, Arizona, metropolitan region are presented to demonstrate the feasibility of such models. Data were separated into fatal, injury, and property-damage crashes. To accommodate overdispersion in the data, negative binomial regression models were applied. To accommodate the simultaneity of fatality and injury crash outcomes, simultaneous estimation of the models was conducted. All models produce crash forecasts at the traffic analysis zone level. Statistically significant (p-values < 0.05) and theoretically meaningful variables for the fatal crash model included population density, persons 17 years old or younger as a percentage of the total population, and intersection density. Significant variables for the injury and property-damage crash models were population density, number of employees, intersections density, percentage of miles of principal arterial, percentage of miles of minor arterials, and percentage of miles of urban collectors. Among several conclusions it is suggested that planning-level safety models are feasible and may play a role in future planning activities. However, caution must be exercised with such models.

Effects of transportation accessibility on residential property values: Application of spatial hedonic price model in Seoul, South Korea, metropolitan area

A number of studies have focused on estimating the effects of accessibility on housing values by using the hedonic price model. In the majority of studies, estimation results have revealed that housing values increase as accessibility improves, although the magnitude of estimates has varied across studies. Adequately estimating the relationship between transportation accessibility and housing values is challenging for at least two reasons. First, the monocentric city assumption applied in location theory is no longer valid for many large or growing cities. Second, rather than being randomly distributed in space, housing values are clustered in space—often exhibiting spatial dependence. Recognizing these challenges, a study was undertaken to develop a spatial lag hedonic price model in the Seoul, South Korea, metropolitan region, which includes a measure of local accessibility as well as systemwide accessibility, in addition to other model covariates. Although the accessibility measures can be improved, the modeling results suggest that the spatial interactions of apartment sales prices occur across and within traffic analysis zones, and the sales prices for apartment communities are devalued as accessibility deteriorates. Consistent with findings in other cities, this study revealed that the distance to the central business district is still a significant determinant of sales price.

Fuzzy logic traffic control at a road junction with time-varying flow rates

Fuzzy logic has been applied to control traffic at road junctions. A simple controller with one fixed rule-set is inadequate to minimise delays when traffic flow rate is time-varying and likely to span a wide range. To achieve better control, fuzzy rules adapted to the current traffic conditions are used.

Business Process Model Merging : An Approach to Business Process Consolidation

This paper addresses the problem of constructing consolidated business process models out of collections of process models that share common fragments. The paper considers the construction of unions of multiple models (called merged models) as well as intersections (called digests). Merged models are intended for analysts who wish to create a model that subsumes a collection of process models - typically representing variants of the same underlying process - with the aim of replacing the variants with the merged model. Digests, on the other hand, are intended for analysts who wish to identify the most recurring fragments across a collection of process models, so that they can focus their efforts on optimizing these fragments. The paper presents an algorithm for computing merged models and an algorithm for extracting digests from a merged model. The merging and digest extraction algorithms have been implemented and tested against collections of process models taken from multiple application domains. The tests show that the merging algorithm produces compact models and scales up to process models containing hundreds of nodes. Furthermore, a case study conducted in a large insurance company has demonstrated the usefulness of the merging and digest extraction operators in a practical setting.

Reliability prediction using the non-parametric explicit hazard model : a case study

Survival probability prediction using covariate-based hazard approach is a known statistical methodology in engineering asset health management. We have previously reported the semi-parametric Explicit Hazard Model (EHM) which incorporates three types of information: population characteristics; condition indicators; and operating environment indicators for hazard prediction. This model assumes the baseline hazard has the form of the Weibull distribution. To avoid this assumption, this paper presents the non-parametric EHM which is a distribution-free covariate-based hazard model. In this paper, an application of the non-parametric EHM is demonstrated via a case study. In this case study, survival probabilities of a set of resistance elements using the non-parametric EHM are compared with the Weibull proportional hazard model and traditional Weibull model. The results show that the non-parametric EHM can effectively predict asset life using the condition indicator, operating environment indicator, and failure history.

Hierarchical fuzzy logic traffic control at a road junction

Traffic control at road junctions is one of the major concerns in most metropolitan cities. Controllers of various approaches are available and the required control action is the effective green-time assigned to each traffic stream within a traffic-light cycle. The application of fuzzy logic provides the controller with the capability to handle uncertain natures of the system, such as drivers’ behaviour and random arrivals of vehicles. When turning traffic is allowed at the junction, the number of phases in the traffic-light cycle increases. The additional input variables inevitably complicate the controller and hence slow down the decision-making process, which is critical in this real-time control problem. In this paper, a hierarchical fuzzy logic controller is proposed to tackle this traffic control problem at a 2-way road junction with turning traffic. The two levels of fuzzy logic controllers devise the minimum effective green-time and fine-tune it respectively at each phase of a traffic-light cycle. The complexity of the controller at each level is reduced with smaller rule-set. The performance of this hierarchical controller is examined by comparison with a fixed-time controller under various traffic conditions. Substantial delay reduction has been achieved as a result and the performance and limitation of the controller will be discussed.

Applying psychological model of personality to the study of leadership

Cloninger’s psychobiological model of temperament and character is a general model of personality that has been widely used in clinical psychology, but has seldom been applied in other domains. In this research we apply Cloninger’s model to the study of leadership. Our study comprised 81 participants who took part in a diverse range of small group tasks. Participants rotated through tasks and groups and rated each other on “emergent leadership.” As hypothesized, leader emergence tended to be consistent regardless of the specific tasks and groups. It was found that personality factors from Cloninger, Svrakic, and Przybeck’s (1993) model could explain trait-based variance in emergent leadership. Results also highlight the role of “cooperativeness” in the prediction of leadership emergence. Implications are discussed in terms of our theoretical understanding of trait-based leadership, and more generally in terms of the utility of Cloninger’s model in leadership research.

Integrated sustainable urban infrastructure management: the Brisbane urban growth model

Sustainable urban development and the liveability of a city are increasingly important issues in the context of land use planning and infrastructure management. In recent years, the promotion of sustainable urban development in Australia and overseas is facing various physical, socio-economic and environmental challenges. These challenges and problems arise from the lack of capability of local governments to accommodate the needs of the population and economy in a relatively short timeframe. The planning of economic growth and development is often dealt with separately and not included in the conventional land use planning process. There is also a sharp rise in the responsibilities and roles of local government for infrastructure planning and management. This increase in responsibilities means that local elected officials and urban planners have less time to prepare background information and make decisions. The Brisbane Urban Growth Model has proven initially successful in providing a dynamic platform to ensure timely and coordinated delivery of urban infrastructure. Most importantly, this model is the first step for local governments in moving toward a systematic approach to pursuing sustainable and effective urban infrastructure management.

An event-based traffic flow model for traffic control at railway junctions

This paper introduces an event-based traffic model for railway systems adopting fixed-block signalling schemes. In this model, the events of trains' arrival at and departure from signalling blocks constitute the states of the traffic flow. A state transition is equivalent to the progress of the trains by one signalling block and it is realised by referring to past and present states, as well as a number of pre-calculated look-up tables of run-times in the signalling block under various signalling conditions. Simulation results are compared with those from a time-based multi-train simulator to study the improvement of processing time and accuracy.

Developing a sustainability assessment model : the sustainable infrastructure, land-use, environment and transport model

Measuring the comparative sustainability levels of cities, regions, institutions and projects is an essential procedure in creating sustainable urban futures. This paper introduces a new urban sustainability assessment model: “The Sustainable Infrastructure, Land-use, Environment and Transport Model (SILENT)”. The SILENT Model is an advanced geographic information system and indicator-based comparative urban sustainability indexing model. The model aims to assist planners and policy makers in their daily tasks in sustainable urban planning and development by providing an integrated sustainability assessment framework. The paper gives an overview of the conceptual framework and components of the model and discusses the theoretical constructs, methodological procedures, and future development of this promising urban sustainability assessment model.