Uncertainty analysis of pollutant build-up modelling based on a Bayesian Weighted Least Squares approach

Reliable pollutant build-up prediction plays a critical role in the accuracy of urban stormwater quality modelling outcomes. However, water quality data collection is resource demanding compared to streamflow data monitoring, where a greater quantity of data is generally available. Consequently, available water quality data sets span only relatively short time scales unlike water quantity data. Therefore, the ability to take due consideration of the variability associated with pollutant processes and natural phenomena is constrained. This in turn gives rise to uncertainty in the modelling outcomes as research has shown that pollutant loadings on catchment surfaces and rainfall within an area can vary considerably over space and time scales. Therefore, the assessment of model uncertainty is an essential element of informed decision making in urban stormwater management. This paper presents the application of a range of regression approaches such as ordinary least squares regression, weighted least squares Regression and Bayesian Weighted Least Squares Regression for the estimation of uncertainty associated with pollutant build-up prediction using limited data sets. The study outcomes confirmed that the use of ordinary least squares regression with fixed model inputs and limited observational data may not provide realistic estimates. The stochastic nature of the dependent and independent variables need to be taken into consideration in pollutant build-up prediction. It was found that the use of the Bayesian approach along with the Monte Carlo simulation technique provides a powerful tool, which attempts to make the best use of the available knowledge in the prediction and thereby presents a practical solution to counteract the limitations which are otherwise imposed on water quality modelling.

Ventilation distribution in rats : Part I - The effect of gas composition as measured with electrical impedance tomography

The measurement of ventilation distribution is currently performed using inhaled tracer gases for multiple breath inhalation studies or imaging techniques to quantify spatial gas distribution. Most tracer gases used for these studies have properties different from that of air. The effect of gas density on regional ventilation distribution has not been studied. This study aimed to measure the effect of gas density on regional ventilation distribution. Methods Ventilation distribution was measured in seven rats using electrical impedance tomography (EIT) in supine, prone, left and right lateral positions while being mechanically ventilated with either air, heliox (30% oxygen, 70% helium) or sulfur hexafluoride (20% SF6, 20% oxygen, 60% air). The effect of gas density on regional ventilation distribution was assessed. Results Gas density did not impact on regional ventilation distribution. The non-dependent lung was better ventilated in all four body positions. Gas density had no further impact on regional filling characteristics. The filling characteristics followed an anatomical pattern with the anterior and left lung showing a greater impedance change during the initial phase of the inspiration. Conclusion It was shown that gas density did not impact on convection dependent ventilation distribution in rats measured with EIT.

Modelling the flow of juice through a mill

A juice flow model has been developed to estimate the juice expression at the four nips of a sixroller mill. An extended volumetric theory was applied to determine the juice expressed at each nip. The model was applied to a first and final mill, using typical mill settings and an empirical equation to estimate reabsorption. Results of using the model for typical heavy-duty pressure feeder settings show that most of the juice is expressed at the pressure feeder nip. Since the pressure feeders are remote from the mill, a significant portion of the juice is expressed before the bagasse enters the mill.

Pore structure characterization of North American shale gas reservoirs using USANS/SANS, gas adsorption, and mercury intrusion

Small-angle and ultra-small-angle neutron scattering (SANS and USANS), low-pressure adsorption (N2 and CO2), and high-pressure mercury intrusion measurements were performed on a suite of North American shale reservoir samples providing the first ever comparison of all these techniques for characterizing the complex pore structure of shales. The techniques were used to gain insight into the nature of the pore structure including pore geometry, pore size distribution and accessible versus inaccessible porosity. Reservoir samples for analysis were taken from currently-active shale gas plays including the Barnett, Marcellus, Haynesville, Eagle Ford, Woodford, Muskwa, and Duvernay shales. Low-pressure adsorption revealed strong differences in BET surface area and pore volumes for the sample suite, consistent with variability in composition of the samples. The combination of CO2 and N2 adsorption data allowed pore size distributions to be created for micro–meso–macroporosity up to a limit of �1000 Å. Pore size distributions are either uni- or multi-modal. The adsorption-derived pore size distributions for some samples are inconsistent with mercury intrusion data, likely owing to a combination of grain compression during high-pressure intrusion, and the fact that mercury intrusion yields information about pore throat rather than pore body distributions. SANS/USANS scattering data indicate a fractal geometry (power-law scattering) for a wide range of pore sizes and provide evidence that nanometer-scale spatial ordering occurs in lower mesopore–micropore range for some samples, which may be associated with inter-layer spacing in clay minerals. SANS/USANS pore radius distributions were converted to pore volume distributions for direct comparison with adsorption data. For the overlap region between the two methods, the agreement is quite good. Accessible porosity in the pore size (radius) range 5 nm–10 lm was determined for a Barnett shale sample using the contrast matching method with pressurized deuterated methane fluid. The results demonstrate that accessible porosity is pore-size dependent.

Improving the hydrogen gas sensing performance of Pt/MoO3 nanoplatelets using a nano thick layer of La2O3

In this paper, we present how a thin RF sputtered layer of lanthanum oxide (La2O3) can alter electrical and improve hydrogen gas sensing characteristics of Pt/molybdenum oxide (MoO3) nanostructures Schottky diodes. We derived the barrier height, ideality factor and dielectric constant from the measured I–V characteristics at operating temperatures in the range of 25–300 ◦C. The dynamic response, response and recovery times were obtained upon exposure to hydrogen gas at different concentrations. Analysis of the results indicated a substantial improvement to the voltage shift sensitivity of the sensors incorporating the La2O3 layer. We associate this enhancement to the formation of numerous trap states due to the presence of the La2O3 thin film on the MoO3 nanoplatelets. These trap states increase the intensity of the dipolar charges at the metal–semiconductor interface, which induce greater bending of the energy bands. However, results also indicate that the presence of La2O3 trap states also increases response and recover times as electrons trapping and de-trapping processes occur before they can pass through this thin dielectric layer.

Characterization of tight gas reservoir pore structure using USANS/SANS and gas adsorption analysis

Small-angle and ultra-small-angle neutron scattering (SANS and USANS) measurements were performed on samples from the Triassic Montney tight gas reservoir in Western Canada in order to determine the applicability of these techniques for characterizing the full pore size spectrum and to gain insight into the nature of the pore structure and its control on permeability. The subject tight gas reservoir consists of a finely laminated siltstone sequence; extensive cementation and moderate clay content are the primary causes of low permeability. SANS/USANS experiments run at ambient pressure and temperature conditions on lithologically-diverse sub-samples of three core plugs demonstrated that a broad pore size distribution could be interpreted from the data. Two interpretation methods were used to evaluate total porosity, pore size distribution and surface area and the results were compared to independent estimates derived from helium porosimetry (connected porosity) and low-pressure N2 and CO2 adsorption (accessible surface area and pore size distribution). The pore structure of the three samples as interpreted from SANS/USANS is fairly uniform, with small differences in the small-pore range (<2000 Å), possibly related to differences in degree of cementation, and mineralogy, in particular clay content. Total porosity interpreted from USANS/SANS is similar to (but systematically higher than) helium porosities measured on the whole core plug. Both methods were used to estimate the percentage of open porosity expressed here as a ratio of connected porosity, as established from helium adsorption, to the total porosity, as estimated from SANS/USANS techniques. Open porosity appears to control permeability (determined using pressure and pulse-decay techniques), with the highest permeability sample also having the highest percentage of open porosity. Surface area, as calculated from low-pressure N2 and CO2 adsorption, is significantly less than surface area estimates from SANS/USANS, which is due in part to limited accessibility of the gases to all pores. The similarity between N2 and CO2-accessible surface area suggests an absence of microporosity in these samples, which is in agreement with SANS analysis. A core gamma ray profile run on the same core from which the core plug samples were taken correlates to profile permeability measurements run on the slabbed core. This correlation is related to clay content, which possibly controls the percentage of open porosity. Continued study of these effects will prove useful in log-core calibration efforts for tight gas.

Multidisciplinary design and flight testing of a remote gas/particle airborne sensor system

The main objective of this paper is to describe the development of a remote sensing airborne air sampling system for Unmanned Aerial Systems (UAS) and provide the capability for the detection of particle and gas concentrations in real time over remote locations. The design of the air sampling methodology started by defining system architecture, and then by selecting and integrating each subsystem. A multifunctional air sampling instrument, with capability for simultaneous measurement of particle and gas concentrations was modified and integrated with ARCAA’s Flamingo UAS platform and communications protocols. As result of the integration process, a system capable of both real time geo-location monitoring and indexed-link sampling was obtained. Wind tunnel tests were conducted in order to evaluate the performance of the air sampling instrument in controlled nonstationary conditions at the typical operational velocities of the UAS platform. Once the remote fully operative air sampling system was obtained, the problem of mission design was analyzed through the simulation of different scenarios. Furthermore, flight tests of the complete air sampling system were then conducted to check the dynamic characteristics of the UAS with the air sampling system and to prove its capability to perform an air sampling mission following a specific flight path.

Groundwater visualisation system (GVS) : a software framework for integrated display and interrogation of conceptual hydrogeological models, data and time-series animation

Management of groundwater systems requires realistic conceptual hydrogeological models as a framework for numerical simulation modelling, but also for system understanding and communicating this to stakeholders and the broader community. To help overcome these challenges we developed GVS (Groundwater Visualisation System), a stand-alone desktop software package that uses interactive 3D visualisation and animation techniques. The goal was a user-friendly groundwater management tool that could support a range of existing real-world and pre-processed data, both surface and subsurface, including geology and various types of temporal hydrological information. GVS allows these data to be integrated into a single conceptual hydrogeological model. In addition, 3D geological models produced externally using other software packages, can readily be imported into GVS models, as can outputs of simulations (e.g. piezometric surfaces) produced by software such as MODFLOW or FEFLOW. Boreholes can be integrated, showing any down-hole data and properties, including screen information, intersected geology, water level data and water chemistry. Animation is used to display spatial and temporal changes, with time-series data such as rainfall, standing water levels and electrical conductivity, displaying dynamic processes. Time and space variations can be presented using a range of contouring and colour mapping techniques, in addition to interactive plots of time-series parameters. Other types of data, for example, demographics and cultural information, can also be readily incorporated. The GVS software can execute on a standard Windows or Linux-based PC with a minimum of 2 GB RAM, and the model output is easy and inexpensive to distribute, by download or via USB/DVD/CD. Example models are described here for three groundwater systems in Queensland, northeastern Australia: two unconfined alluvial groundwater systems with intensive irrigation, the Lockyer Valley and the upper Condamine Valley, and the Surat Basin, a large sedimentary basin of confined artesian aquifers. This latter example required more detail in the hydrostratigraphy, correlation of formations with drillholes and visualisation of simulation piezometric surfaces. Both alluvial system GVS models were developed during drought conditions to support government strategies to implement groundwater management. The Surat Basin model was industry sponsored research, for coal seam gas groundwater management and community information and consultation. The “virtual” groundwater systems in these 3D GVS models can be interactively interrogated by standard functions, plus production of 2D cross-sections, data selection from the 3D scene, rear end database and plot displays. A unique feature is that GVS allows investigation of time-series data across different display modes, both 2D and 3D. GVS has been used successfully as a tool to enhance community/stakeholder understanding and knowledge of groundwater systems and is of value for training and educational purposes. Projects completed confirm that GVS provides a powerful support to management and decision making, and as a tool for interpretation of groundwater system hydrological processes. A highly effective visualisation output is the production of short videos (e.g. 2–5 min) based on sequences of camera ‘fly-throughs’ and screen images. Further work involves developing support for multi-screen displays and touch-screen technologies, distributed rendering, gestural interaction systems. To highlight the visualisation and animation capability of the GVS software, links to related multimedia hosted online sites are included in the references.

Hydrogen Gas Sensor Based on Highly Ordered Polyaniline/Multiwall Carbon Nanotubes Composite

In this work, the structural and gas sensing properties of an electropolymerized, polyaniline (PANI)/multiwall carbon nanotube (MWNT) composite based surface acoustic wave (SAW) sensor are reported. Thin films made of PANI nanofibers were deposited onto 36 lithium tantalate (LiTaO3) SAW transducers using electropolymerization and were subsequently dedoped. Scanning electron microscopy (SEM) revealed the compact growth of the composites which is much denser than that of PANI nanofibers. The PANI/MWNT composite based SAW sensor was then exposed to different concentrations of hydrogen (H2) gas at room temperature with a demonstrated electrical response.

Hydrogen gas sensing properties of Pt/Ta2O5 Schottky diodes based on Si and SiC substrates

We developed Pt/tantalum oxide (Ta2O5) Schottky diodes for hydrogen sensing applications. Thin layer (4 nm) of Ta2O5 was deposited on silicon (Si) and silicon carbide (SiC) substrates using the radio frequency sputtering technique. We compared the performance of these sensors at different temperatures of 100 °C and 150 °C. At these operating temperatures, the sensor based on SiC exhibited a larger sensitivity, whilst the sensor based on Si exhibited a faster response toward hydrogen gas. We discussed herein, the experimental results obtained for these Pt/Ta2O5 based Schottky diodes exhibited that they are promising candidates for hydrogen sensing applications.

Risk modelling in quality clinical registries : Monitoring lesion treatment failure rate in percutaneous coronary interventions

Aims: This paper describes the development of a risk adjustment (RA) model predictive of individual lesion treatment failure in percutaneous coronary interventions (PCI) for use in a quality monitoring and improvement program. Methods and results: Prospectively collected data for 3972 consecutive revascularisation procedures (5601 lesions) performed between January 2003 and September 2011 were studied. Data on procedures to September 2009 (n = 3100) were used to identify factors predictive of lesion treatment failure. Factors identified included lesion risk class (p < 0.001), occlusion type (p < 0.001), patient age (p = 0.001), vessel system (p < 0.04), vessel diameter (p < 0.001), unstable angina (p = 0.003) and presence of major cardiac risk factors (p = 0.01). A Bayesian RA model was built using these factors with predictive performance of the model tested on the remaining procedures (area under the receiver operating curve: 0.765, Hosmer–Lemeshow p value: 0.11). Cumulative sum, exponentially weighted moving average and funnel plots were constructed using the RA model and subjectively evaluated. Conclusion: A RA model was developed and applied to SPC monitoring for lesion failure in a PCI database. If linked to appropriate quality improvement governance response protocols, SPC using this RA tool might improve quality control and risk management by identifying variation in performance based on a comparison of observed and expected outcomes.

Who drives E&P innovation?

Few would argue that the upstream oil and gas industry has become more technology- intensive over the years. At the same time, the increasing costs and complexity of today’s exploration and production (E&P) technologies are making it increasingly difficult for any one company to support an aggressive research and development (R&D) agenda single handedly. The coming together of these two evolutionary forces gives rise to important questions. How does innovation happen in the E&P industry? Specifically, what ideas and inputs flow from which parts of the industry’s value network, and where do these inputs go? And how do firms and organizations from different countries contribute differently to this process? This survey was designed to shed light on these issues.

Virtual world process education

Video presented as part of Smart Services CRC Participants meeting. A short demonstration video of our ideas for using Business Process Software in Virtual Worlds for Process Education.

Modelling the flow of cane constituents through the milling process of a raw sugar factory

This thesis reports on an investigation to develop an advanced and comprehensive milling process model of the raw sugar factory. Although the new model can be applied to both, the four-roller and six-roller milling units, it is primarily developed for the six-roller mills which are widely used in the Australian sugar industry. The approach taken was to gain an understanding of the previous milling process simulation model "MILSIM" developed at the University of Queensland nearly four decades ago. Although the MILSIM model was widely adopted in the Australian sugar industry for simulating the milling process it did have some incorrect assumptions. The study aimed to eliminate all the incorrect assumptions of the previous model and develop an advanced model that represents the milling process correctly and tracks the flow of other cane components in the milling process which have not been considered in the previous models. The development of the milling process model was done is three stages. Firstly, an enhanced milling unit extraction model (MILEX) was developed to access the mill performance parameters and predict the extraction performance of the milling process. New definitions for the milling performance parameters were developed and a complete milling train along with the juice screen was modelled. The MILEX model was validated with factory data and the variation in the mill performance parameters was observed and studied. Some case studies were undertaken to study the effect of fibre in juice streams, juice in cush return and imbibition% fibre on extraction performance of the milling process. It was concluded from the study that the empirical relations developed for the mill performance parameters in the MILSIM model were not applicable to the new model. New empirical relations have to be developed before the model is applied with confidence. Secondly, a soluble and insoluble solids model was developed using modelling theory and experimental data to track the flow of sucrose (pol), reducing sugars (glucose and fructose), soluble ash, true fibre and mud solids entering the milling train through the cane supply and their distribution in juice and bagasse streams.. The soluble impurities and mud solids in cane affect the performance of the milling train and further processing of juice and bagasse. New mill performance parameters were developed in the model to track the flow of cane components. The developed model is the first of its kind and provides some additional insight regarding the flow of soluble and insoluble cane components and the factors affecting their distribution in juice and bagasse. The model proved to be a good extension to the MILEX model to study the overall performance of the milling train. Thirdly, the developed models were incorporated in a proprietary software package "SysCAD’ for advanced operational efficiency and for availability in the ‘whole of factory’ model. The MILEX model was developed in SysCAD software to represent a single milling unit. Eventually the entire milling train and the juice screen were developed in SysCAD using series of different controllers and features of the software. The models developed in SysCAD can be run from macro enabled excel file and reports can be generated in excel sheets. The flexibility of the software, ease of use and other advantages are described broadly in the relevant chapter. The MILEX model is developed in static mode and dynamic mode. The application of the dynamic mode of the model is still under progress.

Spatiotemporal modelling in estimation of nitrous oxide emissions from soil

Nitrous oxide is a major greenhouse gas emission. The aim of this research was to develop and apply statistical models to characterize the complex spatial and temporal variation in nitrous oxide emissions from soils under different land use conditions. This is critical when developing site-specific management plans to reduce nitrous oxide emissions. These studies can improve predictions and increase our understanding of environmental factors that influence nitrous oxide emissions. They also help to identify areas for future research, which can further improve the prediction of nitrous oxide in practice.