Robust future changes in temperature variability under greenhouse gas forcing and the relationship with thermal advection

Recent temperature extremes have highlighted the importance of assessing projected changes in the variability of temperature as well as the mean. A large fraction of present day temperature variance is associated with thermal advection, as anomalous winds blow across the land-sea temperature contrast for instance. Models project robust heterogeneity in the 21st century warming pattern under greenhouse gas forcing, resulting in land-sea temperature contrasts increasing in summer and decreasing in winter, and the pole-to-equator temperature gradient weakening in winter. In this study, future monthly variability changes in the 17 member ensemble ESSENCE are assessed. In winter, variability in midlatitudes decreases while in very high latitudes and the tropics it increases. In summer, variability increases over most land areas and in the tropics, with decreasing variability in high latitude oceans. Multiple regression analysis is used to determine the contributions to variability changes from changing temperature gradients and circulation patterns. Thermal advection is found to be of particular importance in the northern hemisphere winter midlatitudes, where the change in mean state temperature gradients alone could account for over half the projected changes. Changes in thermal advection are also found to be important in summer in Europe and coastal areas, although less so than in winter. Comparison with CMIP5 data shows that the midlatitude changes in variability are robust across large regions, particularly high northern latitudes in winter and mid northern latitudes in summer.

Sparse space-time boundary element methods for the heat equation

The goal of this work is the efficient solution of the heat equation with Dirichlet or Neumann boundary conditions using the Boundary Elements Method (BEM). Efficiently solving the heat equation is useful, as it is a simple model problem for other types of parabolic problems. In complicated spatial domains as often found in engineering, BEM can be beneficial since only the boundary of the domain has to be discretised. This makes BEM easier than domain methods such as finite elements and finite differences, conventionally combined with time-stepping schemes to solve this problem. The contribution of this work is to further decrease the complexity of solving the heat equation, leading both to speed gains (in CPU time) as well as requiring smaller amounts of memory to solve the same problem. To do this we will combine the complexity gains of boundary reduction by integral equation formulations with a discretisation using wavelet bases. This reduces the total work to O(h

A systematic method of parameterisation estimation using data assimilation

In numerical weather prediction, parameterisations are used to simulate missing physics in the model. These can be due to a lack of scientific understanding or a lack of computing power available to address all the known physical processes. Parameterisations are sources of large uncertainty in a model as parameter values used in these parameterisations cannot be measured directly and hence are often not well known; and the parameterisations themselves are also approximations of the processes present in the true atmosphere. Whilst there are many efficient and effective methods for combined state/parameter estimation in data assimilation (DA), such as state augmentation, these are not effective at estimating the structure of parameterisations. A new method of parameterisation estimation is proposed that uses sequential DA methods to estimate errors in the numerical models at each space-time point for each model equation. These errors are then fitted to pre-determined functional forms of missing physics or parameterisations that are based upon prior information. We applied the method to a one-dimensional advection model with additive model error, and it is shown that the method can accurately estimate parameterisations, with consistent error estimates. Furthermore, it is shown how the method depends on the quality of the DA results. The results indicate that this new method is a powerful tool in systematic model improvement.

High-precision measurements of the co-polar correlation coefficient: non-Gaussian errors and retrieval of the dispersion parameter µ in rainfall

The co-polar correlation coefficient (ρhv) has many applications, including hydrometeor classification, ground clutter and melting layer identification, interpretation of ice microphysics and the retrieval of rain drop size distributions (DSDs). However, we currently lack the quantitative error estimates that are necessary if these applications are to be fully exploited. Previous error estimates of ρhv rely on knowledge of the unknown "true" ρhv and implicitly assume a Gaussian probability distribution function of ρhv samples. We show that frequency distributions of ρhv estimates are in fact highly negatively skewed. A new variable: L = -log10(1 - ρhv) is defined, which does have Gaussian error statistics, and a standard deviation depending only on the number of independent radar pulses. This is verified using observations of spherical drizzle drops, allowing, for the first time, the construction of rigorous confidence intervals in estimates of ρhv. In addition, we demonstrate how the imperfect co-location of the horizontal and vertical polarisation sample volumes may be accounted for. The possibility of using L to estimate the dispersion parameter (µ) in the gamma drop size distribution is investigated. We find that including drop oscillations is essential for this application, otherwise there could be biases in retrieved µ of up to ~8. Preliminary results in rainfall are presented. In a convective rain case study, our estimates show µ to be substantially larger than 0 (an exponential DSD). In this particular rain event, rain rate would be overestimated by up to 50% if a simple exponential DSD is assumed.

MODELLING OF HIGH-PRESSURE PHASE EQUILIBRIUM IN SYSTEMS OF INTEREST IN THE FOOD ENGINEERING FIELD USING THE PENG-ROBINSON EQUATION OF STATE WITH TWO DIFFERENT MIXING RULES

In this work, thermodynamic models for fitting the phase equilibrium of binary systems were applied, aiming to predict the high pressure phase equilibrium of multicomponent systems of interest in the food engineering field, comparing the results generated by the models with new experimental data and with those from the literature. Two mixing rules were used with the Peng-Robinson equation of state, one with the mixing rule of van der Waals and the other with the composition-dependent mixing rule of Mathias et al. The systems chosen are of fundamental importance in food industries, such as the binary systems CO(2)-limonene, CO(2)-citral and CO(2)-linalool, and the ternary systems CO(2)-Limonene-Citral and CO(2)-Limonene-Linalool, where high pressure phase equilibrium knowledge is important to extract and fractionate citrus fruit essential oils. For the CO(2)-limonene system, some experimental data were also measured in this work. The results showed the high capability of the model using the composition-dependent mixing rule to model the phase equilibrium behavior of these systems.

The impact of smoke from forest fires on the spectral dispersion of cloud droplet size distributions in the Amazonian region

In this paper, the main microphysical characteristics of clouds developing in polluted and clean conditions in the biomass-burning season of the Amazon region are examined, with special attention to the spectral dispersion of the cloud droplet size distribution and its potential impact on climate modeling applications. The dispersion effect has been shown to alter the climate cooling predicted by the so-called Twomey effect. In biomass-burning polluted conditions, high concentrations of low dispersed cloud droplets are found. Clean conditions revealed an opposite situation. The liquid water content (0.43 +/- 0.19 g m(-3)) is shown to be uncorrelated with the cloud drop number concentration, while the effective radius is found to be very much correlated with the relative dispersion of the size distribution (R(2) = 0.81). The results suggest that an increase in cloud condensation nuclei concentration from biomass-burning aerosols may lead to an additional effect caused by a decrease in relative dispersion. Since the dry season in the Amazonian region is vapor limiting, the dispersion effect of cloud droplet size distributions could be substantially larger than in other polluted regions.

Relativistic dispersion effects on SS433 jets

We here investigate the dispersion properties of radiation in the SS433 relativistic jets. We assume that the jet is composed of cold electron-proton plasma immersed in a predominantly parallel magnetic field to the jet axis. We find that for the mildly relativistic source SS433 (for which similar or equal to 79 degrees), the bulk velocity is too small (v similar or equal to 0.26c) to produce significant changes in the dispersion properties of the medium. Nonetheless, in the rarefied outer regions of the jets, where radio emission dominates, even a weak magnetic field has some influence on the dispersion properties and there appear two different electromagnetic branches that are slightly sensitive to the bulk relativistic motion. In the inner, X-ray region, the magnetic field is much stronger, but in this region the high electron density preserves the isotropic character of the local plasma and no branch separation occurs. In the region of the jet where the IR and optical emission dominates, the cold plasma may be also considered isotropic, i.e., neither the magnetic field nor the bulk velocity is able to affect the propagation of the radiation. Finally, we find that the Doppler line displacement in SS433 is affected by plasma dispersion only in a narrow frequency range in the far IR. As a consequence, although the shift (z) modulation due to precession of the SS433 jets is well described by previous work, it has to be corrected by plasma dispersion effects in the far-IR range.

ON THE DOUBLE NATURED SOLUTIONS OF THE TWO-TEMPERATURE EXTERNAL SOFT PHOTON COMPTONIZED ACCRETION DISKS

We have analyzed pair production in the innermost region of a two-temperature external soft photon Comptonized accretion disk. We have shown that, if the viscosity parameter is greater than a critical value alpha(c), the solution to the disk equation is double valued: one, advection dominated, and the other, radiation dominated. When alpha <= alpha(c), the accretion rate has to satisfy (m) over dot(1) <= (m) over dot <= (m) over dot(c) in order to have two steady-state solutions. It is shown that these critical parameters (m) over dot(1), (m) over dot(c) are functions of r, alpha, and theta(e), and alpha(c) is a function of r and theta(e). Depending on the combination of the parameters, the advection-dominated solution may not be physically consistent. It is also shown that the electronic temperature is maximum at the onset of the thermal instability, from which results this inner region. These solutions are stable against perturbations in the electron temperature and in the density of pairs.

Deep crustal structure of the Parana Basin from receiver functions and Rayleigh-wave dispersion: Evidence for a fragmented cratonic root

The deep crustal structure of the Parana Basin of southern Brazil is investigated by analyzing P- and PP-wave receiver functions at 17 Brazilian Lithosphere Seismic Project stations within the basin. The study area can be described as a typical Paleozoic intracratonic basin that hosts one of the largest Large Igneous Province of the world and makes a unique setting for investigating models of basin subsidence and their interaction with mantle plumes. Our study consists of (1) an analysis of the Moho interaction phases in the receiver functions to obtain the thickness and bulk Vp/Vs ratio of the basin`s underlying crust and (2) a joint inversion with Rayleigh-wave dispersion velocities from an independent tomographic study to delineate the detailed S-wave velocity variation with depth. The results of our analysis reveal that Moho depths and bulk Vp/Vs ratios (including sediments) vary between 41 and 48 km and between 1.70 and 1.76, respectively, with the largest values roughly coinciding with the basin`s axis, and that S-wave velocities in the lower crust are generally below 3.8 km/s. Select sites within the basin, however, show lower crustal S-wave velocities slightly above 3.9 km/s suggestive of underplated mafic material. We show that these observations are consistent with a fragmented cratonic root under the Parana basin that defined a zone of weakness for the initial Paleozoic subsidence of the basin and which allowed localized mafic underplating of the crust along the suture zones by Cenozoic magmatism.

Heat Conduction Equation Solution in the Presence of a Change of State in a Bounded Axisymmetric Cylindrical Domain

The heat conduction problem, in the presence of a change of state, was solved for the case of an indefinitely long cylindrical layer cavity. As boundary conditions, it is imposed that the internal surface of the cavity is maintained below the fusion temperature of the infilling substance and the external surface is kept above it. The solution, obtained in nondimensional variables, consists in two closed form heat conduction equation solutions for the solidified and liquid regions, which formally depend of the, at first, unknown position of the phase change front. The energy balance through the phase change front furnishes the equation for time dependence of the front position, which is numerically solved. Substitution of the front position for a particular instant in the heat conduction equation solutions gives the temperature distribution inside the cavity at that moment. The solution is illustrated with numerical examples. [DOI: 10.1115/1.4003542]

Paleoamerican Morphology in the Context of European and East Asian Late Pleistocene Variation: Implications for Human Dispersion Into the New World

Early American crania show a different morphological pattern from the one shared by late Native Americans. Although the origin of the diachronic morphological diversity seen on the continents is still debated, the distinct morphology of early Americans is well documented and widely dispersed. This morphology has been described extensively for South America, where larger samples are available. Here we test the hypotheses that the morphology of Early Americans results from retention of the morphological pattern of Late Pleistocene modern humans and that the occupation of the New World precedes the morphological differentiation that gave rise to recent Eurasian and American morphology. We compare Early American samples with European Upper Paleolithic skulls, the East Asian Zhoukoudian Upper Cave specimens and a series of 20 modern human reference crania. Canonical Analysis and Minimum Spanning Tree were used to assess the morphological affinities among the series, while Mantel and Dow-Cheverud tests based on Mahalanobis Squared Distances were used to test different evolutionary scenarios. Our results show strong morphological affinities among the early series irrespective of geographical origin, which together with the matrix analyses results favor the scenario of a late morphological differentiation of modern humans. We conclude that the geographic differentiation of modern human morphology is a late phenomenon that occurred after the initial settlement of the Americas. Am J Phys Anthropol 144:442-453, 2011. (c) 2010 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

A non-autonomous strongly damped wave equation: Existence and continuity of the pullback attractor

In this paper we consider the strongly damped wave equation with time-dependent terms u(tt) - Delta u - gamma(t)Delta u(t) + beta(epsilon)(t)u(t) = f(u), in a bounded domain Omega subset of R(n), under some restrictions on beta(epsilon)(t), gamma(t) and growth restrictions on the nonlinear term f. The function beta(epsilon)(t) depends on a parameter epsilon, beta(epsilon)(t) -> 0. We will prove, under suitable assumptions, local and global well-posedness (using the uniform sectorial operators theory), the existence and regularity of pullback attractors {A(epsilon)(t) : t is an element of R}, uniform bounds for these pullback attractors, characterization of these pullback attractors and their upper and lower semicontinuity at epsilon = 0. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Positive solutions for a fourth order equation with nonlinear boundary conditions

Existence of positive solutions for a fourth order equation with nonlinear boundary conditions, which models deformations of beams on elastic supports, is considered using fixed points theorems in cones of ordered Banach spaces. Iterative and numerical solutions are also considered. (C) 2010 IMACS. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

INDEX OF AN IMPLICIT DIFFERENTIAL EQUATION

In this paper we introduce the concept of the index of an implicit differential equation F(x,y,p) = 0, where F is a smooth function, p = dy/dx, F(p) = 0 and F(pp) = 0 at an isolated singular point. We also apply the results to study the geometry of surfaces in R(5).

Monotone positive solutions for a fourth order equation with nonlinear boundary conditions

This work is concerned with the existence of monotone positive solutions for a class of beam equations with nonlinear boundary conditions. The results are obtained by using the monotone iteration method and they extend early works on beams with null boundary conditions. Numerical simulations are also presented. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.