Optimal control and numerical optimization applied to epidemiological models

A relação entre a epidemiologia, a modelação matemática e as ferramentas computacionais permite construir e testar teorias sobre o desenvolvimento e combate de uma doença. Esta tese tem como motivação o estudo de modelos epidemiológicos aplicados a doenças infeciosas numa perspetiva de Controlo Ótimo, dando particular relevância ao Dengue. Sendo uma doença tropical e subtropical transmitida por mosquitos, afecta cerca de 100 milhões de pessoas por ano, e é considerada pela Organização Mundial de Saúde como uma grande preocupação para a saúde pública. Os modelos matemáticos desenvolvidos e testados neste trabalho, baseiam-se em equações diferenciais ordinárias que descrevem a dinâmica subjacente à doença nomeadamente a interação entre humanos e mosquitos. É feito um estudo analítico dos mesmos relativamente aos pontos de equilíbrio, sua estabilidade e número básico de reprodução. A propagação do Dengue pode ser atenuada através de medidas de controlo do vetor transmissor, tais como o uso de inseticidas específicos e campanhas educacionais. Como o desenvolvimento de uma potencial vacina tem sido uma aposta mundial recente, são propostos modelos baseados na simulação de um hipotético processo de vacinação numa população. Tendo por base a teoria de Controlo Ótimo, são analisadas as estratégias ótimas para o uso destes controlos e respetivas repercussões na redução/erradicação da doença aquando de um surto na população, considerando uma abordagem bioeconómica. Os problemas formulados são resolvidos numericamente usando métodos diretos e indiretos. Os primeiros discretizam o problema reformulando-o num problema de optimização não linear. Os métodos indiretos usam o Princípio do Máximo de Pontryagin como condição necessária para encontrar a curva ótima para o respetivo controlo. Nestas duas estratégias utilizam-se vários pacotes de software numérico. Ao longo deste trabalho, houve sempre um compromisso entre o realismo dos modelos epidemiológicos e a sua tratabilidade em termos matemáticos.

The impact of body fat on three dimensional motion of the paediatric foot during walking

Childhood obesity is commonly associated with a pes planus foot type and altered lower limb joint function during walking. However, limited information has been reported on dynamic intersegment foot motion with the level of obesity in children. The aim of this study was to explore the relationships between intersegment foot motion during gait and body fat in boys age 7 to 11 years. Fat mass was measured in fifty-five boys using air displacement plethysmography. Three-dimensional gait analysis was conducted on the right foot of each participant using the 3DFoot model to capture angular motion of the shank, calcaneus, midfoot and metatarsals. Two multivariate statistical techniques were employed; principle component analysis reduced the multidimensional nature of gait analysis, and multiple linear regression analysis accounted for potential confounding factors. Higher fat mass predicted greater plantarflexion of the calcaneus during the first half and end of stance phase and at the end of swing phase. Greater abduction of the calcaneus throughout stance and swing was predicted by greater fat mass. At the midfoot, higher fat mass predicted greater dorsiflexion and eversion throughout the gait cycle. The findings present novel information on the relationships between intersegment angular motion of the foot and body fat in young boys. The data indicates a more pronated foot type in boys with greater body fat. These findings have clinical implications for pes planus and a predisposition for pain and discomfort during weight bearing activities potentially reducing motivation in obese children to be physically active.

Multi-scale keypoints in V1 and face detection

End-stopped cells in cortical area V1, which combine out- puts of complex cells tuned to different orientations, serve to detect line and edge crossings (junctions) and points with a large curvature. In this paper we study the importance of the multi-scale keypoint representa- tion, i.e. retinotopic keypoint maps which are tuned to different spatial frequencies (scale or Level-of-Detail). We show that this representation provides important information for Focus-of-Attention (FoA) and object detection. In particular, we show that hierarchically-structured saliency maps for FoA can be obtained, and that combinations over scales in conjunction with spatial symmetries can lead to face detection through grouping operators that deal with keypoints at the eyes, nose and mouth, especially when non-classical receptive field inhibition is employed. Al- though a face detector can be based on feedforward and feedback loops within area V1, such an operator must be embedded into dorsal and ventral data streams to and from higher areas for obtaining translation-, rotation- and scale-invariant face (object) detection.

Thrush

Thrush is a yeast infection that can appear in the mother and the baby. Thrush thrives in warm, dark, moist places. Moms or babies who have taken medicine for an infection may get thrush. Moms who take estrogen-containing birth control pills may get thrush. There are many causes of thrush, but you can get rid of it. You don’t have to stop breastfeeding.

Lancefield group C and G streptococci in human infection : molecular typing, virulence and antimicrobial susceptibility

Tese de doutoramento, Ciências e Tecnologias da Saúde (Microbiologia), Universidade de Lisboa, Faculdade de Medicina, 2014

Development of a Parent Version of the Manchester-Minneapolis Quality of Life Survey for use by Parents and Crers of UK Children: MMQL-UK (PF).

Background Although it is now widely endorsed that children should as far as possible rate their own health related quality of life (HRQL), there are situations where proxy information on child HRQL may be useful, especially where a child is too ill or young to provide their own HRQL assessment. There is limited availability of generic HRQL scales that have a parallel child and parent version and that are reliable, valid, brief, comprehensible and suitable for use in UK populations. The aims of this study were therefore to develop and validate a parent version of the anglicised Manchester-Minneapolis Quality of Life child form (MMQL-UK (CF)) and to determine the level of association between the child and parent versions of this form. Methods This study was undertaken concurrently with the anglicisation and validation of the MMQL, a measure of HRQL developed for use with children in North America. At that time, no parent version existed, so the MMQL form for children (MMQL-UK (CF)) was used as the basis for the development of the MMQL-UK parent form (PF). The sample included a control group of healthy children and their parents and five exemplar groups; children diagnosed with asthma, diabetes or inflammatory bowel disease and their parents, children in remission from cancer and their parents and children in public care and their carers. Consistency of the MMQL-UK (PF) components were assessed by calculating Cronbach's alpha. Validation of the parent questionnaire was undertaken by comparing MMQL-UK (PF) component scores with comparable components on the proxy PedsQL™ quality of life scales, comparing MMQL-UK (PF) component scores between parents of healthy and chronic disease children and by comparison of component scores from children and their parents or carers. Reproducibility and responsiveness were assessed by retesting parents by follow-up questionnaires. Results A total of 874 children (completing MMQL-UK (CF)) and 572 parents or carers (completing MMQL-UK (PF)) took part in the study. The internal consistency of all the MMQL-UK (PF) components exceeding the accepted criterion of 0.70 and the construct validity was good with moderate correlations being evident between comparable components of the MMQL-UK (PF) and the proxy PedsQL™. Discriminant validity was demonstrated with significant differences being identified between parents of healthy children and those with chronic conditions. Intra-class correlations exceeded 0.65 for all MMQL-UK (PF) components demonstrating good reproducibility. Weak to moderate levels of responsiveness were demonstrated for all but social functioning. The MMQL-UK (PF) showed moderate parent-child correlation with the MMQL-UK (CF) for all components. The best correlations were seen for those components measuring the same construct (Pearson's r ranged from 0.31 to 0.61, p < 0.01 for equivalent components). Conclusion The MMQL-UK (PF) showed moderate to good correlations with the MMQL-UK (CF) component scores. The MMQL-UK (PF) will be of use when comparing child and parent/carer perception of the impact of a child's condition on their HRQL or where the child is too ill or young to provide their own report.

Improving health and wellbeing independently of GDP: dividends of greener and prosoical economies

Increases in gross domestic product (GDP) beyond a threshold of basic needs do not lead to further increases in well-being. An explanation is that material consumption (MC) also results in negative health externalities. We assess how these externalities influence six factors critical for well-being: (i) healthy food; (ii) active body; (iii) healthy mind; (iv) community links; (v) contact with nature; and (vi) attachment to possessions. If environmentally sustainable consumption (ESC) were increasingly substituted for MC, thus improving well-being and stocks of natural and social capital, and sustainable behaviours involving non-material consumption (SBs-NMC) became more prevalent, then well-being would increase regardless of levels of GDP. In the UK, the individualised annual health costs of negative consumption externalities (NCEs) currently amount to £62 billion for the National Health Service, and £184 billion for the economy (for mental ill-health, dementia, obesity, physical inactivity, diabetes, loneliness and cardiovascular disease). A dividend is available if substitution by ESC and SBs-NMC could limit the prevalence of these conditions.

Adolescents and School Asthma Knowledge and Attitudes

Introduction: bronchial asthma is a chronic disease that affects a high percentage of adolescents, with a significant restriction of daily activities, and is a cause of school absenteeism. The relationships between adolescents and asthma disease in school were assessed, with a view to improving knowledge about the asthmatic adolescent. Methods: a survey was conducted in the Lisbon metropolitan area, covering urban (Lisbon) and rural (Lourinh˜a ) zones and including 1879 students and 81 teachers from the 7th to 9th high school years. The study groups were asthmatic students, their peers, and teachers. A self-administered questionnaire was applied to collect information. The results were compared with a reference group of 91 asthmatic students attending our Department of Immunoallergy-Hospital Dona Estefânia. Cotinine urinary measurements were made in a sample of asthmatics and a control group. Results: the prevalence of current asthma among students was 10%. Estimates of asthma annual burden among 7th to 9th year students from Lisbon and Lourinh˜a high schools included 4,307 days missed from school, 4,148 medical consultations and a minimum of 351 hospital emergency care and 80 hospital admissions. Exposure to passive smoking was not significantly different between asthmatic students and theirs peers. Cotinine urinary measurements did not discriminate between exposed and non-exposed individuals. Cigarette smoking was almost as common among adolescent asthmatics (5.4%) as it was in non-asthmatic subjects (6.7%). However, 55% of asthmatics mentioned active and passive smoking as an asthma exacerbating factor. Asthmatic students, theirs peers and teachers showed a deficient knowledge about asthma (mean group scores: 17.6; 14.2 and 17.7 of a possible 30), particularly in the areas related to asthma recognition and its management. Asthmatics attending our Allergy Department had the highest scores. All groups showed tolerance in the sense of a positive and understanding attitude toward a person with asthma. However, traditional beliefs about asthma disease (dependence, inferiority...) were confirmed. A positive correlation between knowledge levels and tolerance attitudes was found. Conclusion: in view of the dimension of the asthma problem in adolescence and its social and economic impact, it is justifiable to assess the need for the implementation of asthma education programs in schools in order to improve asthma management by the adolescents and their schools.

Lupus and Pregnancy. 15 Years of Experience in a Tertiary Center

This retrospective study was designed to evaluate the outcome of pregnancies in women diagnosed with systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) followed in a tertiary fetal–maternal center. Data were collected from clinical charts between January 1993 and December 2007, with a total of 136 pregnancies (107 patients). Mean maternal age was 29 years, with the vast majority of patients being Caucasian. Most patients were in remission 6 months prior to pregnancy (93%) and the most frequently affected organs were the skin and joints. Renal lupus accounted for 14% of all cases. Twenty-nine percent of patients were positive for at least one antiphospholid antibody (aPL) and nearly 50% had positive SSa/SSb antibodies. All patients with positive aPL received low-dosage aspirin and low molecular- weight heparin (LMWH). There were no pregnancy complications in more than 50% of cases and hypertensive disease and intrauterine growth restriction were the most common adverse events. There were 125 live births, one neonatal death, eight miscarriages, and three medical terminations of pregnancy. Preterm delivery occurred in 25% of pregnancies. Our results are probably the conjoined result of a multidisciplinary approach together with a systematic management of SLE pregnancies, with most patients keeping their prior SLE medication combined with low-dosage aspirin and LMWH in the presence of aPL.

Superior outcome of women with stage I/II cutaneous melanoma: pooled analysis of four European Organisation for Research and Treatment of Cancer phase III trials.

PURPOSE: Several studies observed a female advantage in the prognosis of cutaneous melanoma, for which behavioral factors or an underlying biologic mechanism might be responsible. Using complete and reliable follow-up data from four phase III trials of the European Organisation for Research and Treatment of Cancer (EORTC) Melanoma Group, we explored the female advantage across multiple end points and in relation to other important prognostic indicators. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Patients diagnosed with localized melanoma were included in EORTC adjuvant treatment trials 18832, 18871, 18952, and 18961 and randomly assigned during the period of 1984 to 2005. Cox proportional hazard models were used to calculate hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% CIs for women compared with men, adjusted for age, Breslow thickness, body site, ulceration, performed lymph node dissection, and treatment. RESULTS: A total of 2,672 patients with stage I/II melanoma were included. Women had a highly consistent and independent advantage in overall survival (adjusted HR, 0.70; 95% CI, 0.59 to 0.83), disease-specific survival (adjusted HR, 0.74; 95% CI, 0.62 to 0.88), time to lymph node metastasis (adjusted HR, 0.70; 95% CI, 0.51 to 0.96), and time to distant metastasis (adjusted HR, 0.69; 95% CI, 0.59 to 0.81). Subgroup analysis showed that the female advantage was consistent across all prognostic subgroups (with the possible exception of head and neck melanomas) and in pre- and postmenopausal age groups. CONCLUSION: Women have a consistent and independent relative advantage in all aspects of the progression of localized melanoma of approximately 30%, most likely caused by an underlying biologic sex difference.

Systematic evaluation of risk factors for diagnostic delay in inflammatory bowel disease.

The diagnosis of inflammatory bowel disease (IBD), comprising Crohn's disease (CD) and ulcerative colitis (UC), continues to present difficulties due to unspecific symptoms and limited test accuracies. We aimed to determine the diagnostic delay (time from first symptoms to IBD diagnosis) and to identify associated risk factors. A total of 1591 IBD patients (932 CD, 625 UC, 34 indeterminate colitis) from the Swiss IBD cohort study (SIBDCS) were evaluated. The SIBDCS collects data on a large sample of IBD patients from hospitals and private practice across Switzerland through physician and patient questionnaires. The primary outcome measure was diagnostic delay. Diagnostic delay in CD patients was significantly longer compared to UC patients (median 9 versus 4 months, P < 0.001). Seventy-five percent of CD patients were diagnosed within 24 months compared to 12 months for UC and 6 months for IC patients. Multivariate logistic regression identified age <40 years at diagnosis (odds ratio [OR] 2.15, P = 0.010) and ileal disease (OR 1.69, P = 0.025) as independent risk factors for long diagnostic delay in CD (>24 months). In UC patients, nonsteroidal antiinflammatory drug (NSAID intake (OR 1.75, P = 0.093) and male gender (OR 0.59, P = 0.079) were associated with long diagnostic delay (>12 months). Whereas the median delay for diagnosing CD, UC, and IC seems to be acceptable, there exists a long delay in a considerable proportion of CD patients. More public awareness work needs to be done in order to reduce patient and doctor delays in this target population.

Insulin resistance, hyperlipidemia, and hypertension in mice lacking endothelial nitric oxide synthase.

BACKGROUND: Insulin resistance and arterial hypertension are related, but the underlying mechanism is unknown. Endothelial nitric oxide synthase (eNOS) is expressed in skeletal muscle, where it may govern metabolic processes, and in the vascular endothelium, where it regulates arterial pressure. METHODS AND RESULTS: To study the role of eNOS in the control of the metabolic action of insulin, we assessed insulin sensitivity in conscious mice with disruption of the gene encoding for eNOS. eNOS(-/-) mice were hypertensive and had fasting hyperinsulinemia, hyperlipidemia, and a 40% lower insulin-stimulated glucose uptake than control mice. Insulin resistance in eNOS(-/-) mice was related specifically to impaired NO synthesis, because in equally hypertensive 1-kidney/1-clip mice (a model of renovascular hypertension), insulin-stimulated glucose uptake was normal. CONCLUSIONS: These results indicate that eNOS is important for the control not only of arterial pressure but also of glucose and lipid homeostasis. A single gene defect, eNOS deficiency, may represent the link between metabolic and cardiovascular disease.

Clinical and biochemical responses after Gamma Knife surgery for a dopamine-secreting paraganglioma: case report.

The efficacy of Gamma Knife surgery (GKS) in local tumor control of non-secreting paragangliomas (PGLs) has been fully described by previous studies. However, with regard to secreting PGL, only one previous case report exists advocating its efficacy at a biological level. The aims of this study were: 1) to evaluate the safety/efficacy of GKS in a dopamine-secreting PGL; 2) to investigate whether the biological concentrations of free methoxytyramine could be used as a marker of treatment efficacy during the follow-up. We describe the case of a 62-year-old man diagnosed with left PGL. He initially underwent complete surgical excision. Thirty months after, he developed recurrent biological and neuroradiological disease; the most sensitive biomarker for monitoring the disease, concentration of plasma free methoxytyramine, started to increase. GKS was performed at a maximal marginal dose of 16 Gy. During the following 30 months, concentration of free methoxytyramine gradually decreased from 0.14 nmol/l (2*URL) before GKS to 0.09 nmol/l, 6 months after GKS and 0.07 nmol/l at the last follow-up after GKS (1.1*URL), confirming the efficacy of the treatment. Additionally, at 30 months there was approximately 36.6% shrinkage from the initial target volume. The GKS treatment was safe and effective, this being confirmed clinically, neuroradiologically and biologically. The case illustrates the importance of laboratory tests taking into account methoxytyramine when analyzing biological samples to assess the biochemical activity of a PGL. In addition, the identification of methoxytyramine as a unique positive biomarker could designate it for the monitoring of tumor relapse after treatments, including Gamma Knife surgery.

The effect of pH and ethanol on the astringent sub-qualities of red wine, and the implications for optimum grape maturity /

The first objective of this study was to identify appropriate sensory descriptors to assess the astringent sub-qualities of red wine. The influence of pH and ethanol on the sensation of astringency in red wine was evaluated, using a de-alcoholized red wine. A portion of the wine was adjusted to the pH values of 3.2, 3.4, 3.6 and 3.8, and another portion was adjusted to ethanol concentrations of 0%, 6%, 12%, and 15%. In addition, the pH 3.4 and 3.6 treatments were adjusted to an ethanol concentration of 12% and 15% all wines were then assessed sensorially and seventeen terms were identified, through panel discussion, to describe the mouth-feel and taste qualities: velvet, aggressive, silk/satin, dry, fleshy, unripe, pucker viscosity, abrasive, heat, chewy, acidity, grippy/adhesive, bitter, balance, overall astringency, and mouth-coat. Descriptive analysis profiling techniques were used to train the panel and measure the intensity of these attributes. It was found that decreasing pH values (averaged across all ethanol concentrations) showed an increase in the overall astringency of the wine. The combined treatments of ethanol and pH, real wine parameters (pH 3.4 and 3.6; 12% and 15% ethanol) did not have an effect on the perception of the astringent sub-qualities of the wine. A time intensity study was also included using the pH and ethanol adjusted wines, which showed that as the ethanol level of the wines increased so did the time to maximum intensity. The second objective was to identify appropriate sensory descriptors to evaluate the influence of grape maturity and maceration technique (grape skin contact) on the astringency sub-qualities of red vinifera wines from Niagara. The grapes were harvested across two dates, representing an early harvest and a late harvest. A portion of the Cabernet Sauvignon grapes wine was divided into three maceration treatments of oneweek maceration, standard two-week maceration, three-week maceration, and MCM. Another portion of both the early and late harvest Cabernet Sauvignon grapes were chaptalized to yield a final ethanol concentration of 14.5%. The wines were assessed sensorially and thirteen terms were identified, through panel discussion, to describe the mouth-feel and taste qualities: carbon dioxide, pucker, acidity, silk/chamois, dusty/chalky/powdery, sandpaper, numbing, grippy/adhesive, dry, mouthcoat, bitter, balance and, overall astringency. Descriptive analysis techniques were used to train the panel and measure the intensity of these attributes. The data revealed few significant differences in the mouth-feel of the wines with respect to maturity; which included differences in overall astringency and balance. There were varietal differences between Cabernet Sauvignon, Cabernet Franc, and Pinot Noir and differences for Cabernet Sauvignon wines due to the length and manner of maceration and as a result of chaptalization. Statistical analysis revealed a more complex mouth-feel for the Pinot Noir wines; and an increase in the intensity of the astringent sub-qualities as a result of the addition of sugar to the wines. These findings have implications for how processing decisions, such as optimum grape maturity and vinification methods may affect red wine quality.

Exploring the relationship between ethnicity and hypertension in Canada

Background: Previous work examining differences in hypertension across ethnic groups employ race as the principal variable. While differences in hypertension have been identified across racial groups, there is great variation between ethnic groups amongst racial groupings that could mask differences in hypertension and cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk. In light of Canada's ethnic diversity, research aimed at identifying specific groups that are at a health disadvantage is essential for understanding the health of the overall population. In addition, this research would be beneficial for creating programs and policies aimed at reducing or eliminating these disparities. Since CVD is the leading cause of mortality in Canada and hypertension is one of the most significant and modifiable risk factors for CVD, it is important to move past crude classifications based on race and examine ethnic group differences. The purpose of this study is to examine the relationship between ethnicity and hypertension in Canada, while employing more narrow classifications for ethnicity than previous studies. In addition, because ethnicity has been shown to be representative of an individual's social experience, this study also aims to investigate whether this relationship can be explained by one or all of the following variable: socioeconomic status, physical activity, body mass index, smoking status, daily alcohol consumption or acculturation. Methods. This study used the 2004 Canadian Community Health Survey, cycle 2.1 to compare 29 different ethnic groups in Canada on whether they had high blood pressure that had been diagnosed by a health professional. Associations were examined using logistic regression. Subsequent logistic regression analyses included socioeconomic status, physical activity, body mass index, smoking status, daily alcohol consumption and acculturation to test for the effect of each of these variables on the relationship between ethnicity and hypertension. Results. Ukrainians, Chinese, Portuguese, South Asians, Aboriginals, Blacks, Filipinos and South East Asians were found to have significantly higher odds of having high blood pressure than Canadians (OR's = 1.50, 1.56, 2.72, 1.38, 1.36, 1.66, 2.21 & 2.24 respectively, p<.001). In addition, the only significant mediating effects were between SES and Aboriginals as well as obesity and Aboriginals. None of the other independent variables accounted for >10% of the risk experienced by the ethnic groups that were significantly associated with hypertension. Interpretation: The odds of having high blood pressure in Canada varies considerably across ethnic groups within racial groups indicating previous research is not specific enough to inform policy and program development. Because this study was not able to explain this relationship using the sociodemographic and lifestyle factors mentioned above, future research should be done to determine what places certain ethnic groups at a greater risk in order to tailor interventions aimed at reducing high blood pressure that are suited to the specific needs of each cultural group.