CHARACTERIZING THE FIRST HISTORIC ERUPTION OF NABRO, ERITREA: INSIGHTS FROM THERMAL AND UV REMOTE SENSING

June 2011 saw the first historic eruption of Nabro volcano, one of an ongoing sequence of eruptions in the Afar-Red Sea region since 2005. It halted air travel in northern Africa, contaminated food and water sources, and displaced thousands from their homes. Due to its remote location, little was known about this event in terms of the quantity of erupted products and the timing and mechanisms of their emplacement. Geographic isolation, previous quiescence and regional civil unrest meant that this volcano was effectively unmonitored at the time of eruption, and opportunities for field study are limited. Using free, publicly available satellite data, I examined rates of lava effusion and SO2 emission in order to quantify the amount of erupted products and understand the temporal evolution of the eruption, as well as explore what information can be gleaned about eruption mechanisms using remote sensing data. These data revealed a bimodal eruption, beginning with explosive activity marked by high SO2 emission totalling 1824 - 2299 KT, and extensive ash fall of 270 - 440 km2. This gave way to a period of rapid effusion, producing a ~17 km long lava flow, and a volume of ~22.1 x 106 m3. Mass balance between the SO2 and lava flows reveals no sulfur 'excess', suggesting that nearly all of the degassed magma was extruded. The 2011 eruption of Nabro lasted nearly 6 weeks, and may be considered the second largest historic eruption in Africa. Work such as this highlights the importance of satellite remote sensing for studying and monitoring volcanoes, particularly those in remote regions that may be otherwise inaccessible.

STABILITY ANALYSIS AND HAZARD ASSESSMENT OF THE NORTHERN SLOPES OF SAN VICENTE VOLCANO IN CENTRAL EL SALVADOR

Geologic hazards affect the lives of millions of people worldwide every year. El Salvador is a country that is regularly affected by natural disasters, including earthquakes, volcanic eruptions and tropical storms. Additionally, rainfall-induced landslides and debris flows are a major threat to the livelihood of thousands. The San Vicente Volcano in central El Salvador has a recurring and destructive pattern of landslides and debris flows occurring on the northern slopes of the volcano. In recent memory there have been at least seven major destructive debris flows on San Vicente volcano. Despite this problem, there has been no known attempt to study the inherent stability of these volcanic slopes and to determine the thresholds of rainfall that might lead to slope instability. This thesis explores this issue and outlines a suggested method for predicting the likelihood of slope instability during intense rainfall events. The material properties obtained from a field campaign and laboratory testing were used for a 2-D slope stability analysis on a recent landslide on San Vicente volcano. This analysis confirmed that the surface materials of the volcano are highly permeable and have very low shear strength and provided insight into the groundwater table behavior during a rainstorm. The biggest factors on the stability of the slopes were found to be slope geometry, rainfall totals and initial groundwater table location. Using the results from this analysis a stability chart was created that took into account these main factors and provided an estimate of the stability of a slope in various rainfall scenarios. This chart could be used by local authorities in the event of a known extreme rainfall event to help make decisions regarding possible evacuation. Recommendations are given to improve the methodology for future application in other areas as well as in central El Salvador.

DATA DRIVEN INTELLIGENT AGENT NETWORKS FOR ADAPTIVE MONITORING AND CONTROL

To analyze the characteristics and predict the dynamic behaviors of complex systems over time, comprehensive research to enable the development of systems that can intelligently adapt to the evolving conditions and infer new knowledge with algorithms that are not predesigned is crucially needed. This dissertation research studies the integration of the techniques and methodologies resulted from the fields of pattern recognition, intelligent agents, artificial immune systems, and distributed computing platforms, to create technologies that can more accurately describe and control the dynamics of real-world complex systems. The need for such technologies is emerging in manufacturing, transportation, hazard mitigation, weather and climate prediction, homeland security, and emergency response. Motivated by the ability of mobile agents to dynamically incorporate additional computational and control algorithms into executing applications, mobile agent technology is employed in this research for the adaptive sensing and monitoring in a wireless sensor network. Mobile agents are software components that can travel from one computing platform to another in a network and carry programs and data states that are needed for performing the assigned tasks. To support the generation, migration, communication, and management of mobile monitoring agents, an embeddable mobile agent system (Mobile-C) is integrated with sensor nodes. Mobile monitoring agents visit distributed sensor nodes, read real-time sensor data, and perform anomaly detection using the equipped pattern recognition algorithms. The optimal control of agents is achieved by mimicking the adaptive immune response and the application of multi-objective optimization algorithms. The mobile agent approach provides potential to reduce the communication load and energy consumption in monitoring networks. The major research work of this dissertation project includes: (1) studying effective feature extraction methods for time series measurement data; (2) investigating the impact of the feature extraction methods and dissimilarity measures on the performance of pattern recognition; (3) researching the effects of environmental factors on the performance of pattern recognition; (4) integrating an embeddable mobile agent system with wireless sensor nodes; (5) optimizing agent generation and distribution using artificial immune system concept and multi-objective algorithms; (6) applying mobile agent technology and pattern recognition algorithms for adaptive structural health monitoring and driving cycle pattern recognition; (7) developing a web-based monitoring network to enable the visualization and analysis of real-time sensor data remotely. Techniques and algorithms developed in this dissertation project will contribute to research advances in networked distributed systems operating under changing environments.

The Development of Calibrants through Characterization of Volatile Organic Compounds from Peroxide Based Explosives and a Non-target Chemical Calibration Compound

Detection canines represent the fastest and most versatile means of illicit material detection. This research endeavor in its most simplistic form is the improvement of detection canines through training, training aids, and calibration. This study focuses on developing a universal calibration compound for which all detection canines, regardless of detection substance, can be tested daily to ensure that they are working with acceptable parameters. Surrogate continuation aids (SCAs) were developed for peroxide based explosives along with the validation of the SCAs already developed within the International Forensic Research Institute (IFRI) prototype surrogate explosives kit. Storage parameters of the SCAs were evaluated to give recommendations to the detection canine community on the best possible training aid storage solution that minimizes the likelihood of contamination. Two commonly used and accepted detection canine imprinting methods were also evaluated for the speed in which the canine is trained and their reliability. As a result of the completion of this study, SCAs have been developed for explosive detection canine use covering: peroxide based explosives, TNT based explosives, nitroglycerin based explosives, tagged explosives, plasticized explosives, and smokeless powders. Through the use of these surrogate continuation aids a more uniform and reliable system of training can be implemented in the field than is currently used today. By examining the storage parameters of the SCAs, an ideal storage system has been developed using three levels of containment for the reduction of possible contamination. The developed calibration compound will ease the growing concerns over the legality and reliability of detection canine use by detailing the daily working parameters of the canine, allowing for Daubert rules of evidence admissibility to be applied. Through canine field testing, it has been shown that the IFRI SCAs outperform other commercially available training aids on the market. Additionally, of the imprinting methods tested, no difference was found in the speed in which the canines are trained or their reliability to detect illicit materials. Therefore, if the recommendations discovered in this study are followed, the detection canine community will greatly benefit through the use of scientifically validated training techniques and training aids.

The SHIVir Survey: A Dynamical Catalogue of Virgo Cluster Galaxies and their Scaling Relations

By virtue of its proximity and richness, the Virgo galaxy cluster is a perfect testing ground to expand our understanding of structure formation in the Universe. Here, we present a comprehensive dynamical catalogue based on 190 Virgo cluster galaxies (VCGs) in the "Spectroscopy and H-band Imaging of the Virgo cluster" (SHIVir) survey, including kinematics and dynamical masses. Spectroscopy collected over a multi-year campaign on 4-8m telescopes was joined with optical and near-infrared imaging to create a cosmologically-representative overview of parameter distributions and scaling relations describing galaxy evolution in a rich cluster environment. The use of long-slit spectroscopy has allowed the extraction and systematic analysis of resolved kinematic profiles: Halpha rotation curves for late-type galaxies (LTGs), and velocity dispersion profiles for early-type galaxies (ETGs). The latter are shown to span a wide range of profile shapes which correlate with structural, morphological, and photometric parameters. A study of the distributions of surface brightnesses and circular velocities for ETGs and LTGs considered separately show them all to be strongly bimodal, hinting at the existence of dynamically unstable modes where the baryon and dark matter fractions may be comparable within the inner regions of galaxies. Both our Tully-Fisher relation for LTGs and Fundamental Plane analysis for ETGs exhibit the smallest scatter when a velocity metric probing the galaxy at larger radii (where the baryonic fraction becomes sub-dominant) is used: rotational velocity measured in the outer disc at the 23.5 i-mag arcsec^{-2} level, and velocity dispersion measured within an aperture of 2 effective radii, respectively. Dynamical estimates for gas-poor and gas-rich VCGs are merged into a joint analysis of the stellar-to-total mass relation (STMR), stellar TFR, and Mass-Size relation. These relations are all found to contain strong bimodalities or dichotomies between the ETG and LTG samples, alluding to a "mixed scenario'' evolutionary sequence between morphological/dynamical classes that involves both quenching and dry mergers. The unmistakable differentiation between these two galaxy classes appears robust against different classification schemes, and supports the notion that they are driven by different evolutionary histories. Future observations using integral field spectroscopy and including lower-mass galaxies should solidify this hypothesis.

Hilbert Space Valued Signal Plus Noise Models: Analysis of Structural Breaks under High Dimensionality and Temporal Dependence

This thesis is concerned with change point analysis for time series, i.e. with detection of structural breaks in time-ordered, random data. This long-standing research field regained popularity over the last few years and is still undergoing, as statistical analysis in general, a transformation to high-dimensional problems. We focus on the fundamental »change in the mean« problem and provide extensions of the classical non-parametric Darling-Erdős-type cumulative sum (CUSUM) testing and estimation theory within highdimensional Hilbert space settings. In the first part we contribute to (long run) principal component based testing methods for Hilbert space valued time series under a rather broad (abrupt, epidemic, gradual, multiple) change setting and under dependence. For the dependence structure we consider either traditional m-dependence assumptions or more recently developed m-approximability conditions which cover, e.g., MA, AR and ARCH models. We derive Gumbel and Brownian bridge type approximations of the distribution of the test statistic under the null hypothesis of no change and consistency conditions under the alternative. A new formulation of the test statistic using projections on subspaces allows us to simplify the standard proof techniques and to weaken common assumptions on the covariance structure. Furthermore, we propose to adjust the principal components by an implicit estimation of a (possible) change direction. This approach adds flexibility to projection based methods, weakens typical technical conditions and provides better consistency properties under the alternative. In the second part we contribute to estimation methods for common changes in the means of panels of Hilbert space valued time series. We analyze weighted CUSUM estimates within a recently proposed »high-dimensional low sample size (HDLSS)« framework, where the sample size is fixed but the number of panels increases. We derive sharp conditions on »pointwise asymptotic accuracy« or »uniform asymptotic accuracy« of those estimates in terms of the weighting function. Particularly, we prove that a covariance-based correction of Darling-Erdős-type CUSUM estimates is required to guarantee uniform asymptotic accuracy under moderate dependence conditions within panels and that these conditions are fulfilled, e.g., by any MA(1) time series. As a counterexample we show that for AR(1) time series, close to the non-stationary case, the dependence is too strong and uniform asymptotic accuracy cannot be ensured. Finally, we conduct simulations to demonstrate that our results are practically applicable and that our methodological suggestions are advantageous.

The epidemiology of foot-and-mouth disease at the wildlife-livestock interface in northern Tanzania

Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD), a disease of cloven hooved animals caused by FMD virus (FMDV), is one of the most economically devastating diseases of livestock worldwide. The global burden of disease is borne largely by livestock-keepers in areas of Africa and Asia where the disease is endemic and where many people rely on livestock for their livelihoods and food-security. Yet, there are many gaps in our knowledge of the drivers of FMDV circulation in these settings. In East Africa, FMD epidemiology is complicated by the circulation of multiple FMDV serotypes (distinct antigenic variants) and by the presence of large populations of susceptible wildlife and domestic livestock. The African buffalo (Syncerus caffer) is the only wildlife species with consistent evidence of high levels of FMDV infection, and East Africa contains the largest population of this species globally. To inform FMD control in this region, key questions relate to heterogeneities in FMD prevalence and impacts in different livestock management systems and to the role of wildlife as a potential source of FMDV for livestock. To develop FMD control strategies and make best use of vaccine control options, serotype-specific patterns of circulation need to be characterised. In this study, the impacts and epidemiology of FMD were investigated across a range of traditional livestock-keeping systems in northern Tanzania, including pastoralist, agro-pastoralist and rural smallholder systems. Data were generated through field studies and laboratory analyses between 2010 and 2015. The study involved analysis of existing household survey data and generated serological data from cross-sectional livestock and buffalo samples and longitudinal cattle samples. Serological analyses included non-structural protein ELISAs, serotype-specific solid-phase competitive ELISAs, with optimisation to detect East African FMDV variants, and virus neutralisation testing. Risk factors for FMDV infection and outbreaks were investigated through analysis of cross-sectional serological data in conjunction with a case-control outbreak analysis. A novel Bayesian modeling approach was developed to infer serotype-specific infection history from serological data, and combined with virus isolation data from FMD outbreaks to characterise temporal and spatial patterns of serotype-specific infection. A high seroprevalence of FMD was detected in both northern Tanzanian livestock (69%, [66.5 - 71.4%] in cattle and 48.5%, [45.7-51.3%] in small ruminants) and in buffalo (80.9%, [74.7-86.1%]). Four different serotypes of FMDV (A, O, SAT1 and SAT2) were isolated from livestock. Up to three outbreaks per year were reported by households and active surveillance highlighted up to four serial outbreaks in the same herds within three years. Agro-pastoral and pastoral livestock keepers reported more frequent FMD outbreaks compared to smallholders. Households in all three management systems reported that FMD outbreaks caused significant impacts on milk production and sales, and on animals’ draught power, hence on crop production, with implications for food security and livelihoods. Risk factor analyses showed that older livestock were more likely to be seropositive for FMD (Odds Ratio [OR] 1.4 [1.4-1.5] per extra year) and that cattle (OR 3.3 [2.7-4.0]) were more likely than sheep and goats to be seropositive. Livestock managed by agro-pastoralists (OR 8.1 [2.8-23.6]) or pastoralists (OR 7.1 [2.9-17.6]) were more likely to be seropositive compared to those managed by smallholders. Larger herds (OR: 1.02 [1.01-1.03] per extra bovine) and those that recently acquired new livestock (OR: 5.57 [1.01 – 30.91]) had increased odds of suffering an FMD outbreak. Measures of potential contact with buffalo or with other FMD susceptible wildlife did not increase the likelihood of FMD in livestock in either the cross-sectional serological analysis or case-control outbreak analysis. The Bayesian model was validated to correctly infer from ELISA data the most recent serotype to infect cattle. Consistent with the lack of risk factors related to wildlife contact, temporal and spatial patterns of exposure to specific FMDV serotypes were not tightly linked in cattle and buffalo. In cattle, four serial waves of different FMDV serotypes that swept through southern Kenyan and northern Tanzanian livestock populations over a four-year period dominated infection patterns. In contrast, only two serotypes (SAT1 and SAT2) dominated in buffalo populations. Key conclusions are that FMD has a substantial impact in traditional livestock systems in East Africa. Wildlife does not currently appear to act as an important source of FMDV for East African livestock, and control efforts in the region should initially focus on livestock management and vaccination strategies. A novel modeling approach greatly facilitated the interpretation of serological data and may be a potent epidemiological tool in the African setting. There was a clear temporal pattern of FMDV antigenic dominance across northern Tanzania and southern Kenya. Longer-term research to investigate whether serotype-specific FMDV sweeps are truly predictable, and to shed light on FMD post-infection immunity in animals exposed to serial FMD infections is warranted.

Agronomic performance of selected sweet potato cultivars under greenhouse and field infested with meloigogyne incognita and soilborne insect pests.

The root knot nematode (RKN), Meloidogyne incognita, is widespread worldwide and a major pathogen of several cultivated crops. The use of resistant genotypes is the most effective and environmentally sound way to manage RKN. In this study, we screened 16 selected sweet potato cultivars including Amanda, Bárbara, Beatriz, Beauregard, Brazlândia Branca, Brazlândia Rosada, Brazlândia Roxa, BRS Amélia, BRS Cuia, BRS Rubissol, Carolina Vitória, Duda, Júlia, Marcela, PA-26/2009, and Princesa obtained from Embrapa and Universidade Federal do Tocantins? germplasm bank. Studies were conducted under greenhouse and field conditions and the agronomic performance of the cultivars was evaluated in a nematode and soilborne insect-infested field. All 16 sweet potato cultivars tested were rated as resistant to this nematode both under greenhouse and field conditions with reproduction factors < 1. In the field infested with M. incognita, sweet potato cultivars Duda, BRS Amélia, Beauregard, Brazlândia Rosada, and Brazlândia Roxa stood out as superior cultivars, with average yield ranging from 26 to 47 tons per ha. Overall, most cultivars exhibited a fusiform to near fusiform root shape, a good characteristic for the market, and were moderately affected by insects (attack incidence 1 to 30%). As global demand for energy continues to rise, selecting new cultivars of sweet potatoes with increased resistance to nematode diseases and with high yield will be important for food security and biofuel production.

Employment of Real-Time/FPGA Architectures for Test and Control of Automotive Engines

Nowadays the production of increasingly complex and electrified vehicles requires the implementation of new control and monitoring systems. This reason, together with the tendency of moving rapidly from the test bench to the vehicle, leads to a landscape that requires the development of embedded hardware and software to face the application effectively and efficiently. The development of application-based software on real-time/FPGA hardware could be a good answer for these challenges: FPGA grants parallel low-level and high-speed calculation/timing, while the Real-Time processor can handle high-level calculation layers, logging and communication functions with determinism. Thanks to the software flexibility and small dimensions, these architectures can find a perfect collocation as engine RCP (Rapid Control Prototyping) units and as smart data logger/analyser, both for test bench and on vehicle application. Efforts have been done for building a base architecture with common functionalities capable of easily hosting application-specific control code. Several case studies originating in this scenario will be shown; dedicated solutions for protype applications have been developed exploiting a real-time/FPGA architecture as ECU (Engine Control Unit) and custom RCP functionalities, such as water injection and testing hydraulic brake control.

Theoretical and experimental study of novel hybrid composite and metal-composites interfaces

The growing demand for lightweight solutions in every field of engineering is driving the industry to seek new technological solutions to exploit the full potential of different materials. The combination of dissimilar materials with distinct property ranges embodies a transparent allocation of component functions while allowing an optimal mix of their characteristics. From both technological and design perspectives, the interaction between dissimilar materials can lead to severe defects that compromise a multi-material hybrid component's performance and its structural integrity. This thesis aims to develop methodologies for designing, manufacturing, and monitoring of hybrid metal-composite joints and hybrid composite components. In Chapter 1, a methodology for designing and manufacturing hybrid aluminum/composite co-cured tubes is assessed. In Chapter 2, a full-field methodology for fiber misalignment detection and stiffness prediction for hybrid, long fiber reinforced composite systems is shown and demonstrated. Chapter 3 reports the development of a novel technology for joining short fiber systems and metals in a one-step co-curing process using lattice structures. Chapter 4 is dedicated to a novel analytical framework for the design optimization of two lattice architectures.

Response times in computerized adaptive testing: a method for cheating detection

In the field of educational and psychological measurement, the shift from paper-based to computerized tests has become a prominent trend in recent years. Computerized tests allow for more complex and personalized test administration procedures, like Computerized Adaptive Testing (CAT). CAT, following the Item Response Theory (IRT) models, dynamically generates tests based on test-taker responses, driven by complex statistical algorithms. Even if CAT structures are complex, they are flexible and convenient, but concerns about test security should be addressed. Frequent item administration can lead to item exposure and cheating, necessitating preventive and diagnostic measures. In this thesis a method called "CHeater identification using Interim Person fit Statistic" (CHIPS) is developed, designed to identify and limit cheaters in real-time during test administration. CHIPS utilizes response times (RTs) to calculate an Interim Person fit Statistic (IPS), allowing for on-the-fly intervention using a more secret item bank. Also, a slight modification is proposed to overcome situations with constant speed, called Modified-CHIPS (M-CHIPS). A simulation study assesses CHIPS, highlighting its effectiveness in identifying and controlling cheaters. However, it reveals limitations when cheaters possess all correct answers. The M-CHIPS overcame this limitation. Furthermore, the method has shown not to be influenced by the cheaters’ ability distribution or the level of correlation between ability and speed of test-takers. Finally, the method has demonstrated flexibility for the choice of significance level and the transition from fixed-length tests to variable-length ones. The thesis discusses potential applications, including the suitability of the method for multiple-choice tests, assumptions about RT distribution and level of item pre-knowledge. Also limitations are discussed to explore future developments such as different RT distributions, unusual honest respondent behaviors, and field testing in real-world scenarios. In summary, CHIPS and M-CHIPS offer real-time cheating detection in CAT, enhancing test security and ability estimation while not penalizing test respondents.

Comparação entre métodos para mensuração da potência aeróbia em atletas tetraplégicos= : Comparison of methods for aerobic power assessment in athletes with tetraplegia

Universidade Estadual de Campinas . Faculdade de Educação Física

Differences between the quality of strawberries (Fragaria x ananassa) pollinated by the stingless bees Scaptotrigona aff. depilis and Nannotrigona testaceicornis

We investigated the success of two stingless bee species in pollinating strawberries in greenhouses. Three greenhouses and one open field area were used; one greenhouse had only strawberry plants (control), another (G1) had three colonies of Scaptotrigona aff. depilis and another (G2) had three colonies of Nannotrigona testaceicornis. In the open field area, the flowers could be visited by any bee. The total production of fruits was counted and a random sample (N = 100) from each area was used to measure weight, length, circumference, and achenes number (N = 5). The percentages of deformed strawberries were: 23% (no bees); 2% (greenhouses with bees) and 13% (open field). The strawberries from the greenhouse with N. testaceicornis and the open field were heavier than those from the greenhouses with no bees and with S. depilis. The fruit circumference was largest in the greenhouses with bees. The achenes number did not differ among the experimental areas. The strawberries produced in the greenhouses with stingless bees had more quality and greater commercial value than the fruits produced in the open field area and the greenhouse without bees. We conclude that stingless bees are efficient pollinators of strawberry flowers cultivated in greenhouses.

Quantum statistical correlations in thermal field theories: Boundary effective theory

We show that the one-loop effective action at finite temperature for a scalar field with quartic interaction has the same renormalized expression as at zero temperature if written in terms of a certain classical field phi(c), and if we trade free propagators at zero temperature for their finite-temperature counterparts. The result follows if we write the partition function as an integral over field eigenstates (boundary fields) of the density matrix element in the functional Schrodinger field representation, and perform a semiclassical expansion in two steps: first, we integrate around the saddle point for fixed boundary fields, which is the classical field phi(c), a functional of the boundary fields; then, we perform a saddle-point integration over the boundary fields, whose correlations characterize the thermal properties of the system. This procedure provides a dimensionally reduced effective theory for the thermal system. We calculate the two-point correlation as an example.

ON TWO-DIMENSIONAL QUASITOPOLOGICAL FIELD THEORIES

We study a class of lattice field theories in two dimensions that includes gauge theories. We show that in these theories it is possible to implement a broader notion of local symmetry, based on semisimple Hopf algebras. A character expansion is developed for the quasitopological field theories, and partition functions are calculated with this tool. Expected values of generalized Wilson loops are defined and studied with the character expansion.