The missing link: using the NBER recession indicator to construct coincident and leading indices economic activity

We use the information content in the decisions of the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee to construct coincident and leading indices of economic activity for the United States. We identify the coincident index by assuming that the coincident variables have a common cycle with the unobserved state of the economy, and that the NBER business cycle dates signify the turning points in the unobserved state. This model allows us to estimate our coincident index as a linear combination of the coincident series. We establish that our index performs better than other currently popular coincident indices of economic activity.

The missing link: using the NBER recession indicator to construct coincident and leading indices economic activity

We use the information content in the decisions of the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee to construct coincident and leading indices of economic activity for the United States. We identify the coincident index by assuming that the coincident variables have a common cycle with the unobserved state of the economy, and that the NBER business cycle dates signify the turning points in the unobserved state. This model allows us to estimate our coincident index as a linear combination of the coincident series. We compare the performance of our index with other currently popular coincident indices of economic activity.

A monthly indicator of Brazilian GDP. The Brazilian business cycle and growth cycle

This paper constructs an indicator of Brazilian GDP at the monthly ftequency. The peculiar instability and abrupt changes of regimes in the dynamic behavior of the Brazilian business cycle were explicitly modeled within nonlinear ftameworks. In particular, a Markov switching dynarnic factor model was used to combine several macroeconomic variables that display simultaneous comovements with aggregate economic activity. The model generates as output a monthly indicator of the Brazilian GDP and real time probabilities of the current phase of the Brazilian business cycle. The monthly indicator shows a remarkable historical conformity with cyclical movements of GDP. In addition, the estimated filtered probabilities predict ali recessions in sample and out-of-sample. The ability of the indicator in linear forecasting growth rates of GDP is also examined. The estimated indicator displays a better in-sample and out-of-sample predictive performance in forecasting growth rates of real GDP, compared to a linear autoregressive model for GDP. These results suggest that the estimated monthly indicator can be used to forecast GDP and to monitor the state of the Brazilian economy in real time.

Translocation of 99mTc labelled bacteria after intestinal ischemia and reperfusion

Ischemia and reperfusion of the small intestine disrupts gut barrier, causes bacterial translocation and activates inflammatory responses. An experimental study was planned to evaluate if 99mTc labelled Escherichia coli translocates to mesenteric lymph nodes, liver, spleen, lung and serum of rats submitted to mesenteric ischemia/reperfusion. Additionally, it was observed if the time of reperfusion influences the level of translocation. METHODS: Forty male Wistar rats underwent 45 minutes of gut ischemia by occlusion of the superior mesenteric artery. The translocation of labelled bacteria to different organs and portal serum was determined in rats reperfused for 30 minutes, 24 hours, sham(S) and controls(C), using radioactivity count and colony forming units/g (CFU). RESULTS: All the organs from rats observed for 24 hours after reperfusion had higher levels of radioactivity and positive cultures (CFU) than did the organs of rats reperfused for 30 minutes, C and S, except in the spleen (p<0,01). CONCLUSION: The results of this study indicated that intestinal ischemia/reperfusion led to bacterial translocation, mostly after 24 hours of reperfusion

Antimicrobial resistance of heterotrophic marine bacteria isolated from seawater and sands of recreational beaches with different organic pollution levels in southeastern Brazil: evidences of resistance dissemination

Antimicrobial resistance of marine heterotrophic bacteria to different antimicrobials agents were evaluated in seawater, dry and wet sands from three marine recreational beaches with different pollution levels. In all studied beaches, the greatest frequencies of resistance were found in relation to penicillin. on Gonzaguinha, the most polluted beach, 72.3% of all isolated strains showed simple resistance, whilst 8.33% had multiple resistance. The values found on Ilha Porchat beach, were 70.8% and 6.9% for simple and multiple resistances, respectively. on GuaraA(0), the less polluted beach, only 35.3% of isolated strains had simple resistance. Multiple resistance was not observed. While samples from Gonzaguinha and Ilha Porchat beach showed isolated strains resistant to seven and six different antimicrobial agents, respectively, samples from GuaraA(0) beach were resistant only to penicillin and erytromicin. The positive correlations obtained between the degree of seawater contamination and frequency and variability of bacterial resistance indicate that polluted marine recreational waters and sands are sources of resistant bacteria contributing thus, to the dissemination of bacterial resistance.

Antimicrobial resistance and species composition of Enterococcus spp. isolated from waters and sands of marine recreational beaches in Southeastern Brazil

Density, species composition and antimicrobial resistance in bacteria of the Enterococcus genus were evaluated in seawater and sands from 2 marine recreational beaches with different levels of pollution. The 2 beaches showed predominance of Enterococcus faecalis and Enterococcus faecium, in the water and the sand. Dry sand presented higher densities of Enterococcus sp. and higher frequency of resistant strains than wet sand and seawater. The beach with a higher degree of pollution presented higher percentages of resistant strains (66.7% and 61.5%, in sand and in water, respectively) and resistance to a larger number of antimicrobials compared with the less polluted beach, Ilha Porchat (35.7% and 31.25% of resistant strains in sand and water, respectively). in water samples, the highest frequencies of resistance were obtained against streptomycin (38.5%) and erythromycin (25%), whilst in sand, the highest frequencies were observed in relation to erythromycin and tetracycline (38.1% and 14.3%, respectively). These results show that water and sands from beaches with high indexes of faecal contamination of human origin may be potential sources of contamination by pathogens and contribute to the dissemination of bacterial resistance. (C) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Hemolytic activity of alternative complement pathway as an indicator of innate immunity in pacu (Piaractus mesopotamicus)

The objective of this study was to evaluate the methodology to establish the hemolytic activity of alternative complement pathway as an indicator of the innate immunity in Brazilian fish pacu (Piaractus mesopotamicus), in addition to verifying the influence of β-glucan as an immunostimulant. Fish were fed with diets containing 0, 0.1 and 1% β-glucan, during seven days, and then inoculated with Aeromonas hydrophila. Seven days after the challenge, they were bled for serum extraction. The methodology consisted of a kinetic assay that allows calculating the required time for serum proteins of the complement to promote 50% lysis of a rabbit red blood cell suspension. The method developed in mammals was successfully applied for pacu and determined that the hemolytic activity of the proteins of the complement system (alternative pathway) increased after the pathogen challenge, but was not influenced by the β-glucan treatment.

Faecal IgA concentration is influenced by age in dogs

Data comparing age-related alterations in faecal IgA concentrations of dogs are not available in the literature. The present study aimed to compare the faecal concentrations of IgA in puppies, mature and senior dogs. A total of twenty-four beagle dogs were used, including eight puppies (5 months old, four females and four males), eight mature (4.6 years old, eight males) and eight senior dogs (10.6 years old, three males and five females). Fresh faecal samples were collected from each dog for three consecutive days and pooled by animal. After saline extraction, IgA content was measured by ELISA. Data were analysed by one-way ANOVA, and means were compared with Tukey's test (P<0.05). Results showed that puppies have lower faecal IgA concentrations than mature dogs (P<0.05); senior animals presented intermediary results. The reduced faecal IgA concentration in puppies is consistent with the reduced serum and salivary IgA concentrations reported previously, suggesting a reduced mucosal immunity in this age group. Although some studies have found an increased serum IgA concentration in older dogs, this may differ from the intestinal secretion of IgA, which appears to be lower in some senior animals (four of the eight dogs studied).

Electrical conductivity as an indicator of pea seed aging of stored at different temperatures

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Bacterial functional redundancy along a soil reclamation gradient

A strategy to measure bacterial functional redundancy was developed and tested with soils collected along a soil reclamation gradient by determining the richness and diversity of bacterial groups capable of in situ growth on selected carbon substrates. Soil cores were collected from four sites along a transect from the Jamari tin mine site in the Jamari National Forest, Rondonia, RO, Brazil: denuded mine spoil, soil from below the canopy of invading pioneer trees, revegetated soil under new growth on the forest edge, and the forest floor of an adjacent preserved forest. Bacterial population responses were analyzed by amending these soil samples with individual carbon substrates in the presence of bromodeoxyuridine (BrdU), BrdU-labeled DNA was then subjected to a 16S-23S rRNA intergenic analysis to depict the actively growing bacteria from each site, the number and diversity of bacterial groups responding to four carbon substrates (L-serine, L-threonine, sodium citrate, and or-lactose hydrate) increased along the reclamation-vegetation gradient such that the preserved forest soil samples contained the highest functional redundancy for each substrate. These data suggest that bacterial functional redundancy increases in relation to the regrowth of plant communities and may therefore represent an important aspect of the restoration of soil biological functionality to reclaimed mine spoils. They also suggest that bacterial functional redundancy may be a useful indicator of soil quality and ecosystem functioning.

Auxin-producing bacteria isolated from the roots of Cattleya walkeriana, an endangered Brazilian orchid, and their role in acclimatization

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Growth and antimicrobial activity of lactic acid bacteria from rumen fluid according to energy or nitrogen source

Objetivou-se avaliar os efeitos da suplementação com diferentes fontes de energia e de compostos nitrogenados sobre o crescimento e produção de bacteriocinas de bactérias ácido-láticas in vitro. As incubações foram conduzidas utilizando-se fluido ruminal originado de um novilho Holandês-Zebu fistulado no rúmen. O animal foi mantido em pastagem de Brachiaria decumbens recebendo 200 g/dia de proteína bruta suplementar. Os substratos e o inóculo foram acondicionados em frascos de vidro considerando-se oito tratamentos: celulose, celulose e caseína, celulose e peptona de soja, celulose e ureia, amido, amido e caseína, amido e peptona de soja e amido e ureia. Incubações sucessivas foram conduzidas para seleção dos microrganismos em função das fontes energéticas e de compostos nitrogenados. O amido favoreceu o crescimento de bactérias ácido-láticas em comparação à celulose. A suplementação com proteína verdadeira (peptona de soja e caseína) estimulou o crescimento dessas bactérias em comparação ao controle (sem suplementação com compostos nitrogenados). A adição de ureia não estimulou o crescimento de bactérias ácido-láticas. Nenhuma atividade antimicrobiana foi detectada a partir das colônias de bactérias ácido-láticas isoladas. Fontes de proteína verdadeira incrementam a competição entre bactérias fermentadoras de carboidratos estruturais e não-estruturais.

Estimation of fecal production, digesta flow and digestibility in dairy heifers with different indicator

Objetivou-se com este trabalho avaliar a produção fecal por meio do indicador interno, fibra em detergente neutro indigestível (FDNi), e externos, cromo complexado com ácido etilenodiaminotetracético (Cr-EDTA ) e o cloreto de itérbio (YbCl3), além de estimar o fluxo duodenal da matéria seca e os coeficientes de digestibilidades aparentes total, ruminal e pós-ruminal, de diferentes nutrientes. Foram utilizadas oito novilhas mestiças Holandês/Zebu, distribuídas em duplo quadrado latino 4 x 4. Os indicadores Cr-EDTA, YbCl3 e o FDNi não estimaram produção fecal de forma eficiente (p < 0,05), obtendo resultado de 1,64; 1,71 e 2,71 kg dia-1, respectivamente, quando comparado à coleta total de fezes, que obteve resultado de 1,39 kg dia-1. Os valores estimados de fluxo de matéria seca, tanto para a metodologia de único, quanto para de duplo indicador, podem ser considerados biologicamente aceitáveis. Contudo, o valor obtido pela associação Cr-EDTA/YbCl3, utilizada na forma de duplo indicador, foi o mais confiável, pela melhor recuperação dos indicadores externos (Cr-EDTA e YbCl3), que obtiveram médias de 89 e 85%, respectivamente, em comparação ao interno (FDNi), que obteve média 67%. Os coeficientes de digestibilidade ruminal e pós ruminal, estimados pela associação Cr-EDTA/YbCl3, foram considerados melhores, em consequência do valor de fluxo de matéria seca estimado por esta associação.