883 resultados para FORECASTING


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The space currents definitely take effects on electromagnetic environment and also are scientific highlight in the space research. Space currents as a momentum and energy provider to Geospace Storm, disturb the varied part of geomagnetic field, distort magnetospheric configuration and furthermore take control of the coupling between magnetosphere and ionosphere. Due to both academic and commercial objectives above, we carry on geomagnetic inverse and theoretical studies about the space currents by using geomagnetic data from INTERMAGNET. At first, we apply a method of Natural Orthogonal Components (NOC) to decomposition the solar daily variation, especially for (solar quiet variation). NOC is just one of eign mode analysis, the most advantage of this method is that the basic functions (BFs) were not previously designated, but naturally came from the original data so that there are several BFs usually corresponding to the process really happened and have more physical meaning than the traditional spectrum analysis with the fixed BFs like Fourier trigonometric functions. The first two eign modes are corresponding to the and daily variation and their amplitudes both have the seasonal and day-to-day trend, that will be useful for evaluating geomagnetic activity indices. Because of the too strict constraints of orthogonality, we try to extend orthogonal contraints to the non-orthogonal ones in order to give more suitable and appropriate decomposition of the real processes when the most components did not satisfy orthogonality. We introduce a mapping matrix which can transform the real physical space to a new mathematical space, after that process, the modified components which associated with the physical processes have satisfied the orthogonality in the new mathematical space, furthermore, we can continue to use the NOC decomposition in the new mathematical space, and then all the components inversely transform back to original physical space, so that we would have finished the non-orthogonal decomposition which more generally in the real world. Secondly, geomagnetic inverse of the ring current’s topology is conducted. Configurational changes of the ring current in the magnetosphere lead to different patterns of disturbed ground field, so that the global configuration of ring current can be inferred from its geomagnetic perturbations. We took advantages of worldwide geomagnetic observatories network to investigate the disturbed geomagnetic field which produced by ring current. It was found that the ring current was not always centered at geomagnetic equator, and significantly deviated off the equator during several intense magnetic storms. The deviation owing to the tilting and latitudinal shifting of the ring current with respect to the earth’s dipole can be estimated from global geomagnetic survey. Furthermore those two configurational factors which gave a quantitative description of the ring current configuration, will be helpful to improve the Dst calibration and understand the dependence of ring current’s configuration on the plasma sheet location relative to the equator when magnetotail field warped. Thirdly, the energization and physical acceleration process of ring current during magnetic storm has been proposed. When IMF Bz component increase, the enhanced convection electric field drive the plasma injection into the inner magnetosphere. During the transport process, a dynamic heating is happened which make the particles more ‘hot’ when the injection is more deeply inward. The energy gradient along the injection path is equivalent to a kind of force, which resist the plasma more earthward injection, as a diamagnetic effect of the magnetosphere anti and repellent action to the exotically injected plasma. The acceleration efficiency has a power law form. We use analytical way to quantitatively describe the dynamical process by introducing a physical parameter: energization index, which will be useful to understand how the particle is heated. At the end, we give a scheme of how to get the from storm time geomagnetic data. During intense magnetic storms, the lognormal trend of geomagnetic Dst decreases depend on the heating dynamic of magnetosphere controlling ring current. The descending pattern of main phase is governed by the magnetospheric configuration, which can be describled by the energization index. The amplitude of Dst correlated with convection electric field or south component of the solar wind. Finally, the Dst index is predicted by upstream solar wind parameter. As we known space weather have posed many chanllenges and impacts on techinal system, the geomagnetic index for evaluating the activity space weather. We review the most popular Dst prediction method and repeat the Dst forecasting model works. A concise and convnient Key Points model of the polar region is also introduced to space weather. In summary, this paper contains some new quantitative and physical description of the space currents with special focus on the ring current. Whatever we do is just to gain a better understanding of the natural world, particularly the space environment around Earth through analytical deduction, algorithm designing and physical analysis, to quantitative interpretation. Applications of theoretical physics in conjunction with data analysis help us to understand the basic physical process govering the universe.

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Stress change is one of key factors in seismic nucleating and triggering; therefore for understanding and forecasting earthquakes, it is necessary to research on stress status and its changes in rocks. Propagating in underground structures, wave velocity and attenuation contain information on stress changes of the Earth’s interior. For a better understanding of relationship between seismic data and stress changes, modeling and ultrasonic test supply significant references. In this article, acoustoelastic theory is introduced to explain nonlinear elastic characteristics of rocks. Based on the acoustoelastic theory, a solid-fluid coupled model is given to calculate velocity under different stress for porous and liquid fulfilled rocks. Except for the stress-velocity relationship, effects of pore pressure induced stress changes on ultrasonic coda attenuation are also studied. Intrinsic attenuation quality factors are calculated for a comparison purpose. Finally, the relationship between elastic constants and stress changes is thoroughly investigated, a mixture model from two phases of Hooke media is introduced to explain the differences between dynamic and static moduli, a relation among wave length, wave velocities and elastic moduli considering dimension of microstructure, dimension and state of surface between phases is presented. The most important aspect of this work is exploring and establishing relationships between the seismic properties of rocks and changes of their stress conditions, which will have its application in earthquake forecast and seismic hazard.

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The faulted slope zone of Biyang depression, a multiple hydrocarbon accumulation zone lying in a rich oil depression of Nanxiang basin, is a structural-sedimentary compounded slope, which is developed in Yanshanian period and has an area of 500 km2. From the ‘bottom up’, the developed strata may be divided into Yuhuangding formation in Neogene, Dacang Fang, Hetao-yuan plus Liaozhuang formations and Fenghuangzheng plus Pingyuan formation in Neogene, while Hetao-yuan formation is the main hydrocarbon-bearing target. Because of transtensional stress fields formed by persistent action of large-scale faulting in the south of the depression, sedimentary differential compaction in different stages, and tectonic inversion in later developing stage of the depression, a series of nose structure zones cut by different strike faults are developed. Therefore, the reservoir migration and accumulation are controlled by the complex faulted-nose structural zone, reservoir types are dominated by faulted-noses, faulted-blocks and fault-lithology, while lithology and stratigraphic unconformable reservoirs are locally developed. In combination with demands of practical production, applying with a new research approach of systematology and a combination with dynamic and static modes, guided by modern petroleum geologic theory, and based on previous data and studies, new techniques, methods of geophysical exploration, various computer simulation and forecasting techniques are applied in the new research of this paper. Starting from the structural features and formation mechanism, the forming mechanism of faulted structure, conditions and controlling factors of hydrocarbon accumulation, as well as various space-time allocation relationships in the process of accumulation are analyzed in the research. Besides that, the hydrocarbon migration, accumulation mechanism and dynamic evolution process are also discussed in the paper. Through the research, the accumulation rule of the faulted slope zone in faulted lake basin, the distribution and enrichment regularity of different reservoir controlling factors are systematically summarized. The summarizations indicate that the faulted slope is a favorable orientational zone, hydrocarbon is accumulated in nose structures and enriched in the main body of nose structures, faulted transformation zone and the ascent direction of laddering faulted blocks, the faults are the controlling factors, hydrocarbon accumulation zones controlled by fault-lithology are distributed along the faulting direcion. In the end, hydrocarbon migration and accumulation models of complex faulted-nose blocks are established. 1) Down cut model—‘flank-sheet’: the hydrocarbon is migrated like ‘sheet’ along a series of faults with parallel distribution and accumulated in the flank of nose structures; 2)Cross cut --‘axis-string’ model: the hydrocarbon cutting across the faults is migrated like ‘string’ and accumulated in the axis of nose structures. In view of different distribution models, reservoir forming combination patterns are divided and hydrocarbon reservoir evaluation exploration is carried out, which achieves good results in application. Key words: faulted slope zone; migration and accumulation model; reservoir controlling mechanism; reservoir-forming combination

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As a key issue of ionospheric weather study, systemic studies on ionospheric storms can not only further improve our understanding of the response of the ionosphere to solar and geomagnetic disturbances, but also help us to reveal the chemical, dynamic and electro-dynamic mechanisms during storms. Empirical modelling for regional ionospheric storm is also very useful, because it can provide us with tools and references for the forecasting and further practical application of ionospheric activity. In this thesis, we focus on describing and forecasting of ionospheric storms at middle and low latitudes. The main points of my investigations are listed as follows. (1) By using magnetic storms during the period over 50 years, the dependence of the type, onset time and time delay of the ionospheric storms on magnetic latitude, season and local time at middle and low latitudes in the East-Asian sector are studied. The results show that the occurrences of the types of ionospheric disturbances differ in latitude and season. The onset of the ionospheric storms depends on local time. At middle latitudes, most negative phase onsets are within the local time interval from night to early morning, and they rarely occurred in the local noon and afternoon sectors. At low latitudes, positive phases commence most frequently in the daytime sector as well as pre-midnight sector. The average time delays for both the positive and negative ionospheric storms increase with descending latitudes. The time delay has significant dependence on the local time of main phase onset (MPO). The time delay of positive response is shorter for daytime MPO and longer for night-time MPO, whereas the opposite applies for negative response. (2) Based on some previous researches, a primary empirical model for mid-latitude ionospheric disturbance is set up. By fitting to the observed data, we get a high accuracy with a mean RMSE of only 12-14% in summer and equinox. The model output has been compared with the output of STORM model, and the results show that, our model is much better than STORM in summer and a little better for some mid-latitude stations at equinox. Especially, for the type of two-step geomagnetic storm, our model can present twice descending of foF2 very well. In addition, our model can forecast positive ionospheric storms.

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A full understanding of failure mechanism, critical hydrological condition, and process of mobilization and deposition of a landslide is essential for optimal design of stabilization measure and forecasting of landslide hazard. This requires a quantitative study of hydrological response of a slope to rainfall through field monitoring, laboratory test and numerical modelling. At 13:40 on September 18, 2002, a fill slope failed following a period of prolonged rain in Shenzhen, resulting in 5 fatalities and 31 injuries. The failed mass with a volume about 2.5×104m3 traveled about 140m on level ground. Field monitoring, laboratory test, theoretical analysis and numerical modelling were carried out to undestand the hydrological response and failure mechanism of this fill slope. This thesis mainly focuses on the following aspects: (1) The hydrological responses and failure processes of slopes under rainfall infiltration were reviewed. Firstly, the factors influencing on the hydrological responses of slopes were analysed. Secondly, the change of stress state of slope soil and modelling methods of slope failure under rainfall infiltration were reviewed. (2) The characteristics of the Yangbaodi landslide and associated rainfall triggering the failure were presented. The failure was characterized by shallow flowslide, due to an increase of ground water table caused by rainfall infiltration. (3) A fully automated instrumentation was carried out to monitor rainfall, and saturated – unsaturated hydrological response of the fill slope, using a raingauge, piezometers, tensiometers and moisture probes. A conceptual hydrogeological model was presented based on field monitoring and borehole data. Analysis of monitoring data showed that the high pore water pressure in fill slope was caused by upward flow of semiconfined groundwater in the moderately decomposed granite. (4) Laboratory and in-situ testing was performed to study the physical and mechanical properties of fills. Isotropically consolidated undrained compression tests and anisotropically consolidated constant shear stress tests were carried out to understand the failure mechanism of the fill slope. It is indicated that loosely compacted soil is of strain-softening behaviour under undrained conditions, accompanied with a rapid increase in excess pore water pressure. In anisotropically consolidated constant shear stress tests, a very small axial strain was required to induce the failure and the excess pore water pressure increased quickly at failure. This indicated that static liquefaction caused by rise in groundwater table due to rainfall infiltration occurred. (5) The hydraulic conductivity of the highly and moderately decomposed granite was estimated using monitering data of pore water pressure. A saturated – unsaturated flow was modeled to study the hydrological response of the fill slope using rainfall records. It was observed that the lagged failure was due to the geological conditions and the discrepancy of hydraulic conductivity of slope soils. The hydraulic conductivity of moderately decomposed granite is relatively higher than the other materials, resulting in a semiconfied groundwater flow in the moderately decomposed granite, and subsequent upward flow into the upper fill layer. When the ground water table in the fill layer was increased to the critical state, the fill slope failed. (6) Numerical exercises were conducted to replay the failure process of the fill slope, based on field monitoring, laboratory and in-situ testing. It was found that the fill slope was mobilized by a rapid transfer of the concentrated shear stress. The movement of failure mass was characterized by viscosity fluid with a gradual increase in velocity. The failure process, including mobilization and subsequent movement and deposition, was studied using numerical methods.

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The dynamic environments of mineralization in Mesozoic Jiaodong gold mine concentrated area can be devided into two types, compressive environment which related to intracontinental collision and extensional environment which related to intracontinental volcanic rift. The altered rock type (Jiaojia type) and quartz vein type (Linglong type) which related to the former one, were discovered for several years, and became the main types of gold deposits in recent years. A new type gold deposit, syn-detachment altered tectonic breccia type gold deposit, such as Pengjiakuang gold deposit and Songjiagou gold deposit has been discovered on the northeastern margin of Jiaolai Basin. In this paper, the new type of gold deposit has been studied in detail. The study area is located at the northeastern boundaries of Jiaolai Basin, and between the Taocun-Jimo Fault and Wji-Haiyang Fault, in the eastern part of the Jiaodong Block. Pengjiakuang gold deposit and Songjiagou gold deposit occur in a arc-shape detachment fault zone between conglomerate of Lower Cretaceous Laiyang Formation and metamorphic complex of Lower Proterozoic Jingshan Group. Regional geological studies show that Kunyuanshan and Queshan granite intrusions and Qingshanian volcanism were formed in different period of lithospheric thinning of East China in Mesozoic. Granite intrusions were formed in compressive environment, while Qingshanian volcanism were formed in extensional environment. They are all related to the detachment of Sulu Orogenic Belt and the sinistral motion of Tanlu Fault. The Pengjiakuang detachment systems which were formed in the the sinistral motion of Tanlu Fault are the important ore-controlling and ore-containing structure. The Pengjiakuang type gold deposit, controlled by detachment structure, was formed before Yanshanian volcanic period concerning with mixture of meteoric water and magmatic water found in fluid inclusions of gold ores. The minerogenetic epoch has been proposed in 90~120Ma. the host rocks have been extensively subjected to pyritization, silicification, sericitization and carbonatization. Individual ore-body has maximum length of 800m, oblique extension of 500~700m and gold grade of 1~43 * 10~(-6). Native gold is disseminated in silicified, phyllic or carbonatized tectonic breccia. Sulfur, carbon and lead isotope studies on gold ores and wall rocks show that the sulfur come from the metamorphic complex of Lower Proterozoic Jingshan Group, carbon comes from the marble in Jingshan Group, while a part of lead comes from the mantle. The mineralizing fluid is rich in Na~+ and Cl~-, but relatively impoverished in K~+ and F~-. According to the date from hydrogen and oxygen isotopic compositions (δ~(18)OH_2O = 0.59%~4.03%, δDH_2O = -89.5%~97.9%), the conclusion can be reached that the mineralizing fluid of Pengjiakuang gold deposit was a kind of mixed hydrothermal solution which was mainly composed of meteoric water and magmatic water. A genetical model has been formulated. Some apparent anomaly features which show low in the central part and high in the both sides corresponding to the gold-bearing structure, were sum up after analying a vast amount of date by prospecting the orebodies using gamma-ray spectrometer, electrogeochemical parameter technique, controlled source audio magnetic telluric (CSAMT) and shallow surface thermometry in Pengjiakuang gold deposit. The location forecasting problem of buried orebodies has been solved according to these features, and the successful rate is very high in well-drilling. The structural geological-geophysical-geochemical prospecting model has been formulated on the base of the study of geological, geophysical and geochemical characteristics of Pengjiakuang type gold deposit, and the optimum combinational process of geophysical and geochemical prospecting techniques has been summed up. A comparative study shows that the Pengjiakuang type gold deposit, the syn-detachment altered tectonic breccia type gold deposit, is different from Jiaojia type gold deposits and Linglong type gold deposits, in Jiaodong Block. In general, if formed under an extensional tectonic condition and located at detachment fault zone along the margin of Mesozoic Jiaolai basin, and the gold mineralization has also close genetic relationship with alkaline magamtism. Being a new type of gold deposit in Jiaodong gold mine concentrated area, it could be potential to explore in the same regions which processed the same ore-forming geological conditions and mineralization informations.

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Productivity prediction is a serious factor to oil reservoir management and working out economic plans so that it is paid great attention to all the time. Gudao Oil Field, which has been yielding more than 100 million tons of crude oil accumulatively since it was put into developing in 1970's as a complete set of oil field, now entering double extra high water-bearing period after productivity construction, stable production and depletion stage. It's main layer series of development is thought to be type of channel sand reservoir in east China. Form channel sand reservoir in upper Guantao Group of Shengli Oil Field, there are several large oil fields such as Gudao, Gudong and Chengdao etc. with almost one-third reserves of whole Shengli Oil Field. It is considered the common characteristics in this area would be that the layer is less developed, the sand distribution is sporadic, the connectivity is weak, the heterogeneity is strong in plane, the oil layer is unconsolidated with big porosity, high permeability and serious sanding, and the oil is heavy. Because of the restricted factors to productivity of this kind of reservoir, it is very significant to study the productivity prediction this kind of reservoir. By selecting the upstream fluvial reservoir in Guantao Group of Neogene system as researching object, the author studied the forecasting technology with heterogeneous reservoir. Firstly, the author constructed the 3D subtle geological model quantificationally through researching exploitation geology in the way of combination of dynamic and static methods. Secondly, by the aid of dynamic material obtained while producing, the author analyzed the oil distribution law and influencing factors, then finished dynamic oil reservoir description on the basis of static oil reservoir description. Thirdly, via comparing and analyzing all the forecasting methods of productivity existed, the author developed a set of method to forecast productivity of single well and oil field which fit to channel sand reservoir. At last, under the support of ORACLE database, with the advanced computer technology, the author programmed the software called 'Channel Sand Reservoir Prediction System'. Up to now, this system has been putting into use in Gudao Oil Field and very successful.

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The north steep slope zone of Dongying Depression has great potential in oil resource and as the usage of 3-d seismic data in the last decade, the exploration of oil and gas has get into the stage of sandy glavel body lithological oil-gas pool exploration. In this thesis, writer take the north steep slope zone of Dongying Depression as target area and take Sha-III and Sha-[V Menber as purpose stratum, study on sequence stratigraphy, depositional system, reservoir description, emphasesing on analyzing of forming of lithological oil-gas pool, especially the dynamics principle of oil and gas preliminary movement from the source rock to the reservoir form lithological oil-gas pools. The aim of this work is to give some quantitatively explanation for the mechanism of lithological oil-gas pool forming, and set up the theory of pool form with characteristic terrestrial faulted basin. There are main conclusions and views as follow. 1. Applying with principle of sequence stratigrapgy, according to the depositional cycles of Dongying Depression, the sequence stratigraphical partition of Tertiary was finished, stressing on dismembering Sha-III and Sha-IV Menber as 5system tracts. 2. The structure of Dongying Depression especially of the north steep slope zone has accomplished, including the analyzing the structural cortroling to depositional condition of the north steep slope zone of Dongying Depression, discussed relationship between the structure of the north steep slope zone and the pool-forming. 3. The horizontal and vertical exchanges of ancient climates and ancient physiognomy of the all stratum units and studies on characteristic of depositional system distribution have been finished, found that there are five depositional systems in the north steep slope zone of Dongying Depression as fluvial, delta (tan-delta), sub-water fluvial fan lacustrine, gravitive flow, and seven formations of sandy glavel body, and forecasting of all kinds of sandy glavel body has been made. 4. Seismic stratigraphy and log stratigraphy have been made, described and forecasted all kinds of reservoir of objective stratum by means of physical geography method, setup a series means of sandy glavel body description suit to target area. 5. The pool-forming system has been studied, analyzing all the elements in petroleum sub-system of Sha-III and Sha-IV Menber of Dongying Depression with view of source controlling, estimated the petroleum system applying source rock potential index combining with distribution ofreservior. 6.Through studying types of pool, the controlling factors of pool-forming of sandy glavel body were discussed by deposition stages, formation types, structure ect. as a conclusion that the characteristics of pool forming in the north steep slope zone of Dongying Depression are, the controlling factor of the pools is mainly lithology, petrophysics of oil sands vary greatly, with a large heterogeneity, all kind of reservoir with different formation has different pool-forming conditions, and as a result, formed various pools of sandy glavel body along the steep slope with regular combination, distribution and constituted the multiple petroleum accumulative pattern. 7. It's the first time to cauculate and estimate the fluid pressure in source rock of Dongying Depression, set up the stratum fluid pressure in Dongying Depression, and firstly use equivalent charging pressure and reservoir forming index to quantitatively evaluate the pool-forming condition of lithological pool.8. Above all studies, follow up the scent of the exploration combined with practice a lot of explorative targets were found, and got geat economic and social benefit.

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As a marginal subject, dynamic responses of slopes is not only an important problem of engineering geology (Geotechnical problem), but also of other subjects such as seismology, geophysics, seismic engineering and engineering seismic and so on. Owning to the gulf between different subjects, it is arduous to study dynamic responses of slopes and the study is far from ripeness. Studying on the dynamic responses of slopes is very important in theories as well as practices. Supported by hundreds of bibliographies, this paper systemically details the development process of this subject, introduces main means to analyze this subject, and then gives brief remarks to each means respectively. Engineering geology qualitative analysis is the base of slopes dynamic responses study. Because of complexity of geological conditions, engineering geology qualitative analysis is very important in slopes stability study, especially to rock slopes with complex engineering geology conditions. Based on research fruits of forerunners, this paper summarizes factors influencing slopes dynamic stability into five aspects as geology background, stratums, rock mass structure, and topography as well as hydrogeology condition. Based on rock mass structure controlling theory, engineering geology model of the slope is grouped into two typical classes, one is model with obvious controlling discontinuities, which includes horizontal bedded slope, bedding slope, anti-dip slope, slide as well as slope with base rock and weathered crust; the other is model without obvious controlling discontinuities, which includes homogeneous soil slope, joint rock mass slope. Study on slope failure mechanism under dynamic force, the paper concludes that there are two effects will appear in slope during strong earthquake, one is earthquake inertia force, the other is ultra pore pressure buildup. The two effects lead to failure of the slope. To different types of slope failure, the intensity of two effects acting on the slope is different too. To plastic flow failure, pore pressure buildup is dominant; to falling rock failure and toppling failure, earthquake inertia force is dominant in general. This paper briefly introduces the principle of Lagrangian element method. Through a lot of numerical simulations with FLAC3D, the paper comprehensively studies dynamic responses of slopes, and finds that: if the slope is low, displacement, velocity and acceleration are linear enlarging with elevation increasing in vertical direction; if the slope is high enough, displacement, velocity and acceleration are not linear with elevation any more, on the other hand, they fluctuate with certain rhythm. At the same time, the rhythm appears in the horizontal direction in the certain area near surface of the slope. The distribution form of isoline of displacement, velocity and acceleration in the section of the slope is remarkably affected by the slope angle. In the certain area near the slope surface, isoline of displacement, velocity and acceleration is parallel to the surface of the slope, in the mean time, the strike direction of the extreraum area is parallel to the surface of the slope too. Beyond this area, the isoline direction and the strike direction of the extremum area turn to horizontal with invariable distance. But the rhythm appearing or not has nothing to with the slope angle. The paper defines the high slope effect and the low slope effect of slopes dynamic responses, discusses the threshold height H^t of the dynamic high slope effect, and finds that AW is proportional to square root of the dynamic elastic moduli El P , at the same time, it is proportional to period Tof the dynamic input. Thus, the discriminant of H^t is achieved. The discriminant can tell us that to a slope, if its height is larger than one fifth of the wavelength, its response regular will be the dynamic high slope effect; on the other hand, its response regular will be the dynamic low slope effect. Based on these, the discriminant of different slopes taking on same response under the same dynamic input is put forward in this paper. At the same time, the paper studies distribution law of the rhythm extremum point of displacement, velocity and acceleration, and finds that there exists relationship of N = int among the slope height H, the number of the rhythm extremum VHlhro) point N and ffthre- Furthermore, the paper points out that if N^l, the response of the slope will be dynamic high slope effect; \fNforecasting result is almost coincided with numerical simulation result. The Jinping hydropower station, located at the middle stream of Yalongjiang River and the west side of Jinpingdahewan, is the highest double-curvature arch dam planned in building in the world. However, deep fractures are well developed at the left abutment slope, so stability of the slope is a key engineering geological problem. The paper studies the dynamic stability of the slope. In the analysis, considering regional geology and regional seismology of the slope, combining with characteristics of the slope as well as the scale of the project, PGA(peak ground acceleration) of the site is decided (about 197.1cm/s2) by engineering seismology, and then the seismic input used in the slope dynamic analysis is determined. Comprehensive studies are carried out on the slope, especially to its deep fractures, and then the paper concludes that the deep fractures of slope are the result of the combination unloading effect of gravity and tectonic stress. At the same time, the failure model of the slope under dynamic input is attained. Based on these, the stability is comprehensively studied for section IV-IV with numerical simulation method as well as method putting forward in chapter 5. At last, the paper concludes that under dynamic input, the section will slide along fault f9, some deep fractures and fault/5 with certain permanent displacement, and this must be taken into consideration in the engineering.

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In order to developing reservoir of Upper of Ng at high-speed and high-efficient in Chengdao oilfield which is located in the bally shallow sea, the paper builds up a series of theory and means predicting and descripting reservoir in earlier period of oilfield development. There are some conclusions as follows. 1. It is the first time to form a series of technique of fine geological modeling of the channel-sandy reservoir by means of mainly seismic methods. These technique include the logging restriction seismic inversion, the whole three dimension seismic interpretation, seismic properties analysis and so on which are used to the 3-dimension distributing prediction of sandy body, structure and properties of the channel reservoir by a lot of the seismic information and a small quantity of the drilling and the logging information in the earlier stage of the oil-field development. It is the first time that these methods applied to production and the high-speed development of the shallow sea oilfield. The prediction sandy body was modified by the data of new drilling, the new reservoir prediction thinking of traced inversion is built. The applied effect of the technique was very well, according to approximately 200 wells belonging to 30 well groups in Chengdao oilfield, the drilling succeeded rate of the predicting sandy body reached 100%, the error total thickness only was 8%. 2. The author advanced the thinking and methods of the forecasting residual-oil prediction at the earlier stage of production. Based on well data and seismic data, correlation of sediment units was correlated by cycle-correlation and classification control methods, and the normalization and finely interpretation of the well logging and sedimentation micro-facies were acquired. On the region of poor well, using the logging restriction inversion technique and regarding finished drilling production well as the new restriction condition, the sand body distributing and its property were predicted again and derived 3-dimension pool geologic model including structure, reservoir, fluid, reservoir engineering parameter and producing dynamic etc. According to the reservoir geologic model, the reservoir engineering design was optimized, the tracking simulation of the reservoir numerical simulation was done by means of the dynamic data (pressure, yield and water content) of development well, the production rule and oil-water distributing rule was traced, the distributing of the remaining oil was predicted and controlled. The dynamic reservoir modeling method in metaphase of development was taken out. Based on the new drilling data, the static reservoir geologic model was momentarily modified, the research of the flow units was brought up including identifying flow units, evaluating flow units capability and establishing the fine flow units model; according to the dynamic data of production and well testing data, the dynamic tracing reservoir description was realized through the constant modification of the reservoir geologic model restricted these dynamic data by the theory of well testing and the reservoir numerical simulation. It was built the dynamic tracing reservoir model, which was used to track survey of the remaining oil on earlier period. The reservoir engineering tracking analysis technique on shallow sea oilfield was founded. After renewing the structure history since tertiary in Chengdao area by the balance section technique and estimating the activity character of the Chengbei fault by the sealing fault analysis technique, the meandering stream sediment pattern of the Upper of Ng was founded in which the meandering border was the uppermost reservoir unit. Based on the specialty of the lower rock component maturity and the structure maturity, the author founded 3 kinds of pore structure pattern in the Guanshang member of Chengdao oil-field in which the storing space mainly was primary (genetic) inter-granular pore, little was secondary solution pore and the inter-crystal pore tiny pore, and the type of throat mainly distributed as the slice shape and the contract neck shape. The positive rhythmic was briefly type included the simple positive rhythm, the complex positive rhythm and the compound rhythm. Interbed mainly is mudstone widely, the physical properties and the calcite interbed distribute localized. 5. The author synthetically analyzed the influence action of the micro-heterogeneity, the macro-heterogeneity and the structure heterogeneity to the oilfield water flood development. The efficiency of water flood is well in tiny structure of convex type or even type at top and bottom in which the water breakthrough of oil well is soon at the high part of structure when inject at the low part of structure, and the efficiency of water flood is poor in tiny structure of concave type at top and bottom. The remaining oil was controlled by sedimentary facies; the water flooding efficiency is well in the border or channel bar and is bad in the floodplain or the levee. The separation and inter layer have a little influence to the non-obvious positive rhythm reservoir, in which the remaining oil commonly locate within the 1-3 meter of the lower part of the separation and inter layer with lower water flooding efficiency.

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The central uplift in the Huimin depression is famous for its large amounts of faults and small-scale fault-block area, and it is the famed typical complicated fault-block group oil & gas field in the whole world. After many years of rolling exploration and exploitation, many complex oil &gas field have been discovered in the central uplift, and won the splendent fruit. With the gradual deepening and development of the rolling exploitation, the exploration faces more and more difficulties. Therefore, it is important to reveal the forming mechanism and distributing rule of the complex fault-block reservoir, and to realize the forecast of the complex fault-block reservoir, sequentially, expedite the exploration step. This article applies the new multi-subject theory, method and technique such as structure geometry, kinematics, dynamics, structural stress field, fluid potential field, well logging record and constrained inversion of seismic records, coherence analysis, the seal mold and seal history of oil-bounded fault etc, and try to reveal the forming mechanism and distributing law of the complex fault-block reservoir, in result, implements the forecast of the fault-block reservoir and the remaining oil distributing. In order to do so, this article synthetically carries out structural estimate, reservoir estimate, fault sealing history estimate, oil-bearing properties estimate and residual. This article also synthetically researches, describes and forecast the complex fault-block in Huimin depression by use of the techniques, e.g. seismetic data post-stack processing technique, multi-component demarcating technique, elaborate description technique for the fault-block structure, technique of layer forecasting, fault sealing analysis technique, comprehensive estimate technique of fault-block, comprehensive analysis and estimate technique of remaining oil etc. The activities of the faults varies dramatically in the Huimin depression, and most of the second-class and the third-class faults are contemporaneous faults, which control the macroscopical distribution of the reservoir in the Huimin depression. The fourth-class faults cause the complication between the oil & gas among the fault-blocks. The multi-period strong activities of the Linyi fracture resulted in the vertical migration of large amount of oil & gas along with the faults. This is the main reason for the long vertical distribution properties near the Linyi fracture in the Huimin depression. The sealing ability of the fault is controlled by the property,size and direction of the main stress, the contact relationship of the both sides of the fault, the shale polluting factor, and the configuration relationship between the fault move period and the migration period of oil & gas. The article suggest four fault-sealing modes in the research zone for the first time, which establishes the foundation for the further forecast of the complex fault-block reservoir. Numerical simulation of the structural stress field reveals the distribution law and the evolvement progress of the three-period stress field from the end of the Dongying period to the Guantao period to nowadays. This article puts forward that the Linyi and Shanghe regions are the low value of the maximum main stress data. This is combined with the fault sealing history estimate, then multi-forming-reservoir in the central uplift is put forward. In the Shanghe oilfield, the article establishes six reservoir geological modes and three remaining oil distributing modes(the plane, the inside layer and the interlayer), then puts forward six increase production measure to enhance the remaining oil recovery ratio. Inducting the exploitation of oilfield, it wins notable economic effects and social effects.

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This article is an important part of "95" technological subject of SINOPEC. It has a large number of difficulties and workloads, and has significant theoretical meanings and practical value. The study area is composed of sandstone & conglomerate reservoir of alluvial fan & fan delta, which belong to Sha3 lower member and Sha4 upper member of lower tertiary of Yong'an Town Oilfield in Dongying Depression. The target stataum develops in the hanging wall of the synsedimentary fault in the scarp zone of Dongying Depression. The frequently intense movements result in the variation of sandstone and conglomerate reservoir and the evolution of the time and space of Sha3 lower member and Sha4 upper member in Yong'an Town Oilfield. As a result, it is difficult for the individual reservoir correlation at the root of fan, which bring about a tackle problem for the exploitation of oilfield. In this background, the research of fluid units will be more difficult. In this article, the new concepts, the new methods, and the new techniques of sedimentology, petroleum geology, reservoir geology, physics of crystal surface, dynamic & static state reservoir description and well logging geology are synthetically applied, and the computer technology are made full uses of, and the identifying, dividing and appraising of the two-formation-type sandstone & conglomerate reservoir fluid units of Sha3 lower member and Sha4 upper member systemically analyzed in Yong'an Town Oilfield, Dongying Depression. For the first time, the single-well model, the section model, the plane model, the nuclear magnetism log model, the microcosmic network model, the 4-D geology model and the simulation model of the two-formation-type reservoir fluid units of the of sandstone & conglomerate reservoir of Sha3 lower member and Sha4 upper member are established, and the formative mechanism and distributing & enrichment laws of oil-gas of the two type of sandstone and conglomerate reservoir fluid units are revealed. This article established the optimizing, identifying, classifying and appraising standard of the two-formation-type reservoir fluid units of the of sandstone and conglomerate reservoir of Sha3 lower member and Sha4 upper member, which settles the substantial foundations for static state model of the fluid units, reveals the macroscopic & microcosmic various laws of geometrical static state of the fluid units, and instructs the oil exploitation. This article established static state model of the two-formation-type sandstone and conglomerate reservoir fluid units by using the multi-subject theories, information and techniques, and reveals the geometrical configuration, special distribution and the oil-gas enrichment laws of the sandstone and conglomerate reservoir fluid units. For the first time, we established the nuclear magnetism log model of the two-formation-type sandstone and conglomerate reservoir of Sha3 lower member and Sha4 upper member, which reveals not only the character and distributing laws of the porosity and permeability, bat also the formation and distribution of the movable fluid. It established six type of microcosmic net model of the two-formation-type sandstone and conglomerate reservoir of Sha3 lower member and Sha4 upper member in the working area by using the advanced theories, such as rock thin section, SEM, image analysis, intrusive mercury, mold, rock C.T. measure & test image etc., which reveals the microcosmic characteristic of porosity & throat, filterate mode and microcosmic oil-gas enrichment laws of the sandstone and conglomerate reservoir. For the first time, it sets up the 4-D model and mathematic model of the sandstone and conglomerate reservoir, which reveals the distributing and evolving laws of macroscopic & microcosmic parameters of the two-formation-type sandstone and conglomerate reservoir and oil-gas in 4-D space. At the same time, it also forecasts the oil-gas distribution and instructs the oilfield exploitation. It established reservoir simulation model, which reveals the filterate character and distributing laws of oil-gas in different porosity & throat net models. This article established the assistant theories and techniques for researching, describing, indicating and forecasting the sandstone and conglomerate reservoir fluid units, and develops the theories and techniques of the land faces faulted basin exploitation geology. In instructing oilfield exploitation, it had won the notable economic & social benefits.

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In this paper, We analyzed the geological and geographical settings of dinosaurs extinction at the end of Cretaceous, especially the effect of the change of the elements contents on dinosaurs extinction. We studied basis on the two typical sections-Cretaceous-Paleocene boundary (Baishantou section (in Jiayin, Heilongjiang province of China) and Arkhara-Boguchan Coal Mine section (in Far East of Russian)) and Longgushan section (in Jiayin, Heilongjiang province of China) mainly. This work provided some evidences for forecasting the effects of global environmental change on bio-circle. The followings are the primary gains: According to the paleo-climate indexes (CaO/MgO,Sr/Ba) and the results of Factor Analysis, we found that there were similar climate in Baishantou section and Arkhara-Boguchan Coal Mine section near the K/E boundary, and both of them took on the trend of temperature declining and precipitation heightening after transitory high-temperature and drought. There are similar change and evlution rule of the elements contents near the boundary in the both sections (Baishantou section and Arkhara-Boguchan Coal Mine section). Both iron group elements and chalcophile elements appeared obvious abnormity. There are not visible correlation between the change of elements contents and climate indexes. This shows that the elements abnormity maybe came from the factors excluding climate or the factors were too many to conceal the influence of climate. --The result of cluster analysis showed that the boundary between BST3-8 and BST3-9 may be the K/E boundary of Baishantou section, and the top of twofold coal were the K/E boundary of Arkhara-Boguchan Coal Mine section which was consistent with accepted conclusion formerly. By contrast of elements contents in dinosaur bones and general organism, in surrounding rock and general sand stone, the regulation of the change of elements contents in dinosaur bones and surrounding rock, we confirmed that dinosaur extinction in Jiayin were relative with the high abnormities of Sr, Ba, Pb, Cr and the low abnormity of Zn, at least, it was them which speeded up dinosaurs extinction. After a series of analysis, we concluded that dinosaurs extinction of this areas tied up with the relative high background values of geo-chemical elements , paleo-climate and disaster incidents. First of all, high background values provided the necessary condition for the accumulation of the elements. Secondly, the drought climate adverse to the survival of dinosaurs, and led them to extinct gradually. finally, disaster incidents, the eruption of volcano or the collision of aerolites, made them exit this planet.

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China is experiencing a rapid development of highway ever since 1990s. By the end of 2004, the total length of the highway summed up to 33 thousand kilometers, ranking 2n in the world. After the open of highway, the accumulation of time and traffic causes the decrease of its capability. To ensure its good quality, security and operation functions, we should take some reasonable measures to maintain it periodically. At present, a big problem is that the traditional maintain measures can no longer meet the increasing requirements. Due to the characters of highway, the relationship of various maintenance data and geographic positions is even closer than any others. If we wan to improve the quality and efficiency of the maintenance work, particularly when there is need for decision-making, a great number of data that is related to geographic positions are absolutely necessary. Evidently, Geographical Information System (GIS) has incomparably advantages in dealing with these spatial information. As a result, a management system for highway maintenance work based on GIS became inevitable for the development of the maintenance of highway. The purpose of this paper is to establish a management system for highway maintenance work base on Geographical Information System (GIS), Global Positioning System (GPS) and spatial database, to manage all kinds of problems encountered in the work, and to provide support on information and methods. My study mainly includes: (1) Analysis on the current status of the maintenance and management work; overview on the history of domestic and international highway maintenance management systems; identifying the necessity and importance for establishing a management system for highway maintenance work based on GIS. (2) Based on the requirement analysis, I proposed a general design for this management system, and discussed the objective, design principles, framework, systematical structure and function design. (3) Outdoor data collection is not only a prime way to understand the current situation of the road, but also an important method for data update after the system is put into use. This paper also intends to establish a set of plan to collect data efficiently and precisely which is based on GIS and GPS technologies. (4) The maintenance management database is a supporting platform for various maintenance decision-makings. Such decisions need the support of a great amount of data, which would cause other problems, such as the diversity of the data source, difference of data formats. This paper also discussed how to deal with these problems and establish such a database. (5) To propose an approach to assess the condition of pavement, based on GIS and related maintenance models. Among all the maintenance models, the two for assessing and forecasting pavement condition are the most important and mature. This paper also analyzed these two models and introduced them in terms of the integration of models. (6) This paper took the Guangshen Highway for example, explaining how to realize a GIS for management of highway maintenance work.

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P-J Fit and P-O Fit are focus problems in the investigation field of industry and organization psychology. They have distinct influences on staff job performance and job attitude. In a certain extend,these influences are moderated by some variables. LMX(Leader-member Exchange) and TMX(Team-member exchange) are two most important personal relationship types in job scene. Post investigations indicated that they are equal to forecasting variables and moderating variables of staff job performance and job attitude. From actualities, although there are many investigations about the relationships between P-J Fit, P-O Fit, LMX, TMX and job attitude, these investigations only focused on some aspects, and they discussed little about four aspects at one time and mutual influences. Using hierarchical regression analysis to analyze the survey data collected from 592 employees in a big governmental telecom company, we got some results as follows: (1)After controlling demography variables, standardized regression coefficients on P-J Fit, P-O Fit, LMX, TMX and job satisfaction, organization commitment are all positive, and reach distinct levels. (2) LMX could distinctly moderate the influences of P-J Fit, P-O Fit on job satisfaction, but couldn’t distinctly moderate the influences of the two on organization commitment. Specifically, as LMX increased,the effect of P-J on job satisfaction decreased gradually,while the effect of P-O increased. (3) TMX could not distinctly moderate the relationships between P-J Fit, P-O Fit, job satisfaction and organization commitment. The theoretical implication of this investigation lies in enriching and developing investigations in these fields in a certain extend, through conforming the influences of P-J Fit, P-O Fit, LMX, and TMX on job satisfaction and organization commitment. The practical implication lies in revealing these aspects for corporation governors: When selecting applications for a job, they should try their best to realize the best fit of personal ability and the job requirements, personal value and organization culture. They should enhance staff job satisfaction and organization commitment through furthering the relationship between the leader and members, team members each other. They should cushion disadvantage influences of non-P-J Fit on staff job satisfaction and enhance positive influences of P-O Fit. 【Key words】 person-job fit; person-organization fit; leader-member exchange; team member exchange; job attitude