The Malthusian parameter of ascents: What prevents the exponential increase of one’s ancestors?

The reason that the indefinite exponential increase in the number of one’s ancestors does not take place is found in the law of sibling interference, which can be expressed by the following simple equation:\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \usepackage{amsmath} \usepackage{wasysym} \usepackage{amsfonts} \usepackage{amssymb} \usepackage{amsbsy} \usepackage{mathrsfs} \setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \begin{document} \begin{equation*}\begin{matrix}{\mathit{N}}_{{\mathit{n}}} \enskip & \\ {\mathit{{\blacksquare}}} \enskip & \\ {\mathit{ASZ}} \enskip & \end{matrix} {\mathrm{\hspace{.167em}{\times}\hspace{.167em}2\hspace{.167em}=\hspace{.167em}}}{\mathit{N_{n+1},}}\end{equation*}\end{document} where Nn is the number of ancestors in the nth generation, ASZ is the average sibling size of these ancestors, and Nn+1 is the number of ancestors in the next older generation (n + 1). Accordingly, the exponential increase in the number of one’s ancestors is an initial anomaly that occurs while ASZ remains at 1. Once ASZ begins to exceed 1, the rate of increase in the number of ancestors is progressively curtailed, falling further and further behind the exponential increase rate. Eventually, ASZ reaches 2, and at that point, the number of ancestors stops increasing for two generations. These two generations, named AN SA and AN SA + 1, are the most critical in the ancestry, for one’s ancestors at that point come to represent all the progeny-produced adults of the entire ancestral population. Thereafter, the fate of one’s ancestors becomes the fate of the entire population. If the population to which one belongs is a successful, slowly expanding one, the number of ancestors would slowly decline as you move toward the remote past. This is because ABZ would exceed 2. Only when ABZ is less than 2 would the number of ancestors increase beyond the AN SA and AN SA + 1 generations. Since the above is an indication of a failing population on the way to extinction, there had to be the previous AN SA involving a far greater number of individuals for such a population. Simulations indicated that for a member of a continuously successful population, the AN SA ancestors might have numbered as many as 5.2 million, the AN SA generation being the 28th generation in the past. However, because of the law of increasingly irrelevant remote ancestors, only a very small fraction of the AN SA ancestors would have left genetic traces in the genome of each descendant of today.

Intramolecular vibrational dephasing obeys a power law at intermediate times

Experimental intramolecular vibrational dephasing transients for several large organic molecules are reanalyzed. Fits to the experimental data, as well as full numerical quantum calculations with a factorized potential surface for all active degrees of freedom of fluorene indicate that power law decays, not exponentials, occur at intermediate times. The results support a proposal that power law decays describe vibrational dephasing dynamics in large molecules at intermediate times because of the local nature of energy flow.

Using rare mutations to estimate population divergence times: A maximum likelihood approach

In this paper we propose a method to estimate by maximum likelihood the divergence time between two populations, specifically designed for the analysis of nonrecurrent rare mutations. Given the rapidly growing amount of data, rare disease mutations affecting humans seem the most suitable candidates for this method. The estimator RD, and its conditional version RDc, were derived, assuming that the population dynamics of rare alleles can be described by using a birth–death process approximation and that each mutation arose before the split of a common ancestral population into the two diverging populations. The RD estimator seems more suitable for large sample sizes and few alleles, whose age can be approximated, whereas the RDc estimator appears preferable when this is not the case. When applied to three cystic fibrosis mutations, the estimator RD could not exclude a very recent time of divergence among three Mediterranean populations. On the other hand, the divergence time between these populations and the Danish population was estimated to be, on the average, 4,500 or 15,000 years, assuming or not a selective advantage for cystic fibrosis carriers, respectively. Confidence intervals are large, however, and can probably be reduced only by analyzing more alleles or loci.

Call to needle times after acute myocardial infarction in urban and rural areas in northeast Scotland: prospective observational study

Objective: To determine call to needle times and consider how best to provide timely thrombolytic treatment for patients with acute myocardial infarction.

Monophyly and extensive extinction of advanced eusocial bees: Insights from an unexpected Eocene diversity

Advanced eusociality sometimes is given credit for the ecological success of termites, ants, some wasps, and some bees. Comprehensive study of bees fossilized in Baltic amber has revealed an unsuspected middle Eocene (ca. 45 million years ago) diversity of eusocial bee lineages. Advanced eusociality arose once in the bees with significant post-Eocene losses in diversity, leaving today only two advanced eusocial tribes comprising less than 2% of the total bee diversity, a trend analogous to that of hominid evolution. This pattern of changing diversity contradicts notions concerning the role of eusociality for evolutionary success in insects.

Estimation of divergence times from multiprotein sequences for a few mammalian species and several distantly related organisms

When many protein sequences are available for estimating the time of divergence between two species, it is customary to estimate the time for each protein separately and then use the average for all proteins as the final estimate. However, it can be shown that this estimate generally has an upward bias, and that an unbiased estimate is obtained by using distances based on concatenated sequences. We have shown that two concatenation-based distances, i.e., average gamma distance weighted with sequence length (d2) and multiprotein gamma distance (d3), generally give more satisfactory results than other concatenation-based distances. Using these two distance measures for 104 protein sequences, we estimated the time of divergence between mice and rats to be approximately 33 million years ago. Similarly, the time of divergence between humans and rodents was estimated to be approximately 96 million years ago. We also investigated the dependency of time estimates on statistical methods and various assumptions made by using sequence data from eubacteria, protists, plants, fungi, and animals. Our best estimates of the times of divergence between eubacteria and eukaryotes, between protists and other eukaryotes, and between plants, fungi, and animals were 3, 1.7, and 1.3 billion years ago, respectively. However, estimates of ancient divergence times are subject to a substantial amount of error caused by uncertainty of the molecular clock, horizontal gene transfer, errors in sequence alignments, etc.

Metapopulation extinction caused by mutation accumulation

Theory suggests that the risk of extinction by mutation accumulation can be comparable to that by environmental stochasticity for an isolated population smaller than a few thousand individuals. Here we show that metapopulation structure, habitat loss or fragmentation, and environmental stochasticity can be expected to greatly accelerate the accumulation of mildly deleterious mutations, lowering the genetic effective size to such a degree that even large metapopulations may be at risk of extinction. Because of mutation accumulation, viable metapopulations may need to be far larger and better connected than would be required under just stochastic demography.

Lessons from the past: Evolutionary impacts of mass extinctions

Mass extinctions have played many evolutionary roles, involving differential survivorship or selectivity of taxa and traits, the disruption or preservation of evolutionary trends and ecosystem organization, and the promotion of taxonomic and morphological diversifications—often along unexpected trajectories—after the destruction or marginalization of once-dominant clades. The fossil record suggests that survivorship during mass extinctions is not strictly random, but it often fails to coincide with factors promoting survival during times of low extinction intensity. Although of very serious concern, present-day extinctions have not yet achieved the intensities seen in the Big Five mass extinctions of the geologic past, which each removed ≥50% of the subset of relatively abundant marine invertebrate genera. The best comparisons for predictive purposes therefore will involve factors such as differential extinction intensities among regions, clades, and functional groups, rules governing postextinction biotic interchanges and evolutionary dynamics, and analyses of the factors that cause taxa and evolutionary trends to continue unabated, to suffer setbacks but resume along the same trajectory, to survive only to fall into a marginal role or disappear (“dead clade walking”), or to undergo a burst of diversification. These issues need to be addressed in a spatially explicit framework, because the fossil record suggests regional differences in postextinction diversification dynamics and biotic interchanges. Postextinction diversifications lag far behind the initial taxonomic and morphological impoverishment and homogenization; they do not simply reoccupy vacated adaptive peaks, but explore opportunities as opened and constrained by intrinsic biotic factors and the ecological and evolutionary context of the radiation.

The current biodiversity extinction event: Scenarios for mitigation and recovery

The current massive degradation of habitat and extinction of species is taking place on a catastrophically short timescale, and their effects will fundamentally reset the future evolution of the planet's biota. The fossil record suggests that recovery of global ecosystems has required millions or even tens of millions of years. Thus, intervention by humans, the very agents of the current environmental crisis, is required for any possibility of short-term recovery or maintenance of the biota. Many current recovery efforts have deficiencies, including insufficient information on the diversity and distribution of species, ecological processes, and magnitude and interaction of threats to biodiversity (pollution, overharvesting, climate change, disruption of biogeochemical cycles, introduced or invasive species, habitat loss and fragmentation through land use, disruption of community structure in habitats, and others). A much greater and more urgently applied investment to address these deficiencies is obviously warranted. Conservation and restoration in human-dominated ecosystems must strengthen connections between human activities, such as agricultural or harvesting practices, and relevant research generated in the biological, earth, and atmospheric sciences. Certain threats to biodiversity require intensive international cooperation and input from the scientific community to mitigate their harmful effects, including climate change and alteration of global biogeochemical cycles. In a world already transformed by human activity, the connection between humans and the ecosystems they depend on must frame any strategy for the recovery of the biota.