Development and validation of a risk score predicting substantial weight gain over 5 years in middle-aged European men and women.

BACKGROUND Identifying individuals at high risk of excess weight gain may help targeting prevention efforts at those at risk of various metabolic diseases associated with weight gain. Our aim was to develop a risk score to identify these individuals and validate it in an external population. METHODS We used lifestyle and nutritional data from 53°758 individuals followed for a median of 5.4 years from six centers of the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) to develop a risk score to predict substantial weight gain (SWG) for the next 5 years (derivation sample). Assuming linear weight gain, SWG was defined as gaining ≥ 10% of baseline weight during follow-up. Proportional hazards models were used to identify significant predictors of SWG separately by EPIC center. Regression coefficients of predictors were pooled using random-effects meta-analysis. Pooled coefficients were used to assign weights to each predictor. The risk score was calculated as a linear combination of the predictors. External validity of the score was evaluated in nine other centers of the EPIC study (validation sample). RESULTS Our final model included age, sex, baseline weight, level of education, baseline smoking, sports activity, alcohol use, and intake of six food groups. The model's discriminatory ability measured by the area under a receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.64 (95% CI = 0.63-0.65) in the derivation sample and 0.57 (95% CI = 0.56-0.58) in the validation sample, with variation between centers. Positive and negative predictive values for the optimal cut-off value of ≥ 200 points were 9% and 96%, respectively. CONCLUSION The present risk score confidently excluded a large proportion of individuals from being at any appreciable risk to develop SWG within the next 5 years. Future studies, however, may attempt to further refine the positive prediction of the score.

Leishmania infection and host-blood feeding preferences of phlebotomine sandflies and canine leishmaniasis in an endemic European area, the Algarve Region in Portugal

The Algarve Region (AR) in southern Portugal, which is an international tourist destination, has been considered an endemic region of zoonotic leishmaniasis caused by Leishmania infantum since the 1980s. In the present study, phlebotomine and canine surveys were conducted to identify sandfly blood meal sources and to update the occurrence of Leishmania infection in vectors and dogs. Four sandfly species were captured: Phlebotomus perniciosus, Phlebotomus ariasi, Phlebotomus sergenti and Sergentomyia minuta. In one P. perniciosus female, L. infantum DNA was detected. Blood meal tests showed that this species had no host preferences and was an opportunistic feeder. An overall canine leishmaniasis (CanL) seroprevalence of 16.06% was found; the seroprevalence was 3.88% in dogs housed in kennels and 40.63% in dogs that attended veterinary clinics. The simultaneous occurrence of dogs and P. perniciosus infected with L. infantum in the AR indicates that the region continues to be an endemic area for CanL. Our results reinforce the need for the systematic spatial distribution of phlebotomine populations and their Leishmania infection rates and the need to simultaneously perform pathogen monitoring in both invertebrate and vertebrate hosts to investigate the transmission, distribution and spreading of Leishmania infection.

Management of bleeding and coagulopathy following major trauma: an updated European guideline.

INTRODUCTION: Evidence-based recommendations are needed to guide the acute management of the bleeding trauma patient. When these recommendations are implemented patient outcomes may be improved. METHODS: The multidisciplinary Task Force for Advanced Bleeding Care in Trauma was formed in 2005 with the aim of developing a guideline for the management of bleeding following severe injury. This document represents an updated version of the guideline published by the group in 2007 and updated in 2010. Recommendations were formulated using a nominal group process, the Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development and Evaluation (GRADE) hierarchy of evidence and based on a systematic review of published literature. RESULTS: Key changes encompassed in this version of the guideline include new recommendations on the appropriate use of vasopressors and inotropic agents, and reflect an awareness of the growing number of patients in the population at large treated with antiplatelet agents and/or oral anticoagulants. The current guideline also includes recommendations and a discussion of thromboprophylactic strategies for all patients following traumatic injury. The most significant addition is a new section that discusses the need for every institution to develop, implement and adhere to an evidence-based clinical protocol to manage traumatically injured patients. The remaining recommendations have been re-evaluated and graded based on literature published since the last edition of the guideline. Consideration was also given to changes in clinical practice that have taken place during this time period as a result of both new evidence and changes in the general availability of relevant agents and technologies. CONCLUSIONS: A comprehensive, multidisciplinary approach to trauma care and mechanisms with which to ensure that established protocols are consistently implemented will ensure a uniform and high standard of care across Europe and beyond.

Do labour mobility and networks foster geographical knowledge diffusion? The case of European regions

The goal of this paper is twofold: first, we aim to assess the role played by inventors’ cross-regional mobility and networks of collaboration in fostering knowledge diffusion across regions and subsequent innovation. Second, we intend to evaluate the feasibility of using mobility and networks information to build cross-regional interaction matrices to be used within the spatial econometrics toolbox. To do so, we depart from a knowledge production function where regional innovation intensity is a function not only of the own regional innovation inputs but also external accessible R&D gained through interregional interactions. Differently from much of the previous literature, cross-section gravity models of mobility and networks are estimated to use the fitted values to build our ‘spatial’ weights matrices, which characterize the intensity of knowledge interactions across a panel of 269 regions covering most European countries over 6 years.

Conservation phylogeography: does historical diversity contribute to regional vulnerability in European tree frogs (Hyla arborea)?

Documenting and preserving the genetic diversity of populations, which conditions their long-term survival, have become a major issue in conservation biology. The loss of diversity often documented in declining populations is usually assumed to result from human disturbances; however, historical biogeographic events, otherwise known to strongly impact diversity, are rarely considered in this context. We apply a multilocus phylogeographic study to investigate the late-Quaternary history of a tree frog (Hyla arborea) with declining populations in the northern and western part of its distribution range. Mitochondrial and nuclear polymorphisms reveal high genetic diversity in the Balkan Peninsula, with a spatial structure moulded by the last glaciations. While two of the main refugial lineages remained limited to the Balkans (Adriatic coast, southern Balkans), a third one expanded to recolonize Northern and Western Europe, loosing much of its diversity in the process. Our findings show that mobile and a priori homogeneous taxa may also display substructure within glacial refugia ('refugia within refugia') and emphasize the importance of the Balkans as a major European biodiversity centre. Moreover, the distribution of diversity roughly coincides with regional conservation situations, consistent with the idea that historically impoverished genetic diversity may interact with anthropogenic disturbances, and increase the vulnerability of populations. Phylogeographic models seem important to fully appreciate the risks of local declines and inform conservation strategies.

Oesophageal atresia: prevalence, prenatal diagnosis and associated anomalies in 23 European regions.

OBJECTIVE: To describe prevalence, prenatal diagnosis and epidemiological data on oesophageal atresia from 23 well-defined European regions and compare the prevalence between these regions. DESIGN: Population-based study using data from a large European database for surveillance of congenital anomalies (EUROCAT) for two decades (1987-2006). SETTINGS: Twenty-three participating registries based on multiple sources of information including information about live births, fetal deaths with gestational age ≥20 weeks and terminations of pregnancy. PATIENTS: 1222 cases of oesophageal atresia in a population of 5 019 804 births. RESULTS: The overall prevalence was 2.43 cases per 10 000 births (95% CI 2.30 to 2.57). There were regional differences in prevalence ranging from 1.27 to 4.55. Prenatal detection rates varied by registry from >50% of cases to <10% of cases. A total of 546 cases (44.7%) had an isolated oesophageal anomaly, 386 (31.6%) were multiple malformed and 290 (23.7%) had an association or a syndrome. There were 1084 live born cases (88.7%), 43 cases were fetal deaths and 95 cases were terminations of pregnancy. One-week survival for live births was 86.9% and 99.2% if the gestational age was ≥38 weeks and isolated oesophageal atresia was present. Males accounted for 57.3% of all cases and 38.5% of live born cases were born with gestational age <37 weeks. CONCLUSION: There were regional differences in prevalence of oesophageal atresia in Europe. Half of all cases had associated anomalies. Prenatal detection rate increased from 26% to 36.5% over the two decades. Survival in infants with isolated oesophageal atresia born at term is high.

How to Measure Scope Variables when no Metrics Exist : Application to Landscape Quality Measurement and Hedonic Price Evaluation

Landscape is an example of a non-market good where no metrics exist to measure its quality. The paper proposes an original methodology to nevertheless estimate scope variables in those circumstances, allowing then to better test if people's willingnesstopay for such good is sensitive to the scope. The methodology is based on techniques developed in the context of multicriteria decision analysis. It is applied to assess the quality of the landscape of several Swiss alpine resorts. This assessment is then used as an explanatory variable in a hedonic price function to explain the rent of apartments and to derive an implicit price of the landscape quality.

Glutathione Precursor, N-Acetyl-Cysteine, Modulates EEG Synchronization in Schizophrenia Patients

Background: Glutathione (GSH) dysregulation at the gene, protein and functional levels observed in schizophrenia patients, and schizophrenia-like anomalies in GSH deficit experimental models, suggest that genetic glutathione synthesis impairments represent one major risk factor for the disease (Do et al., 2009). In a randomized, double blind, placebo controlled, add-on clinical trial of 140 patients, the GSH precursor N-Acetyl-Cysteine (NAC, 2g/day, 6 months) significantly improved the negative symptoms and reduced sideeffects due to antipsychotics (Berk et al., 2008). In a subset of patients (n=7), NAC (2g/day, 2 months, cross-over design) also improved auditory evoked potentials, the NMDA-dependent mismatch negativity (Lavoie et al, 2008). Methods: To determine whether increased GSH levels would modulate the topography of functional brain connectivity, we applied a multivariate phase synchronization (MPS) estimator (Knyazeva et al, 2008) to dense-array EEGs recorded during rest with eyes closed at the protocol onset, the point of crossover, and at its end. Results: The whole-head imaging revealed a specific synchronization landscape in NAC compared to placebo condition. In particular, NAC increased MPS over frontal and left temporal regions in a frequency-specific manner. The topography and direction of MPS changes were similar and robust in all 7 patients. Moreover, these changes correlated with the changes in the Liddle's score of disorganization, thus linking EEG synchronization to the improvement of the clinical picture. Conclusions: The data suggest an important pathway towards new therapeutic strategies that target GSH dysregulation in schizophrenia. They also show the utility of MPS mapping as a marker of treatment efficacy.

Incendis històrics a l'alta muntanya pirinenca : anàlisi dels carbons sedimentaris a la torbera de Montarenyo (Lladorre, Pallars Sobirà)

Les zones europees d’alta muntanya, concretament les mediterrànies, han estat utilitzades des de temps remots per l’ésser humà, a través de l’aprofitament de boscos i prats mitjançant activitats com l’agricultura, la ramaderia, la silvicultura i la metal·lúrgia. Però, des de fa temps, amb l’abandonament de les àrees rurals, estem davant d’una falta de gestió dels boscos, degut a la pèrdua de les activitats tradicionals. L’objectiu d’aquest treball és el de determinar l’impacte provocat per les societats antigues sobre els boscos, amb la utilització del foc com a eina de gestió, així com l’anàlisi dels processos d’antropització de les zones de muntanya que utilitzaven aquest recurs. En aquest treball l’anàlisi de l’evolució del paisatge es fa mitjançant l’estudi de les comunitats vegetals històriques i la dinàmica d’incendis, a través de dues metodologies basades en testimonis sedimentaris: l’anàlisi de carbons i l’anàlisi del pol·len. El testimoni sedimentari ha estat extret de la torbera ombrotròfica de Montarenyo, situada a la vessant sud dels Pirineus, a la Vall de Cardós, al Pallars Sobirà. Aquestes dues disciplines han permès indagar en la geohistòria ambiental, per tal d’establir les relacions entre l’ambient i la societat. Els resultats mostren que el foc ha estat utilitzat per nombroses activitats, creant unes dinàmiques forestals característiques. El paisatge actual és conseqüència de les pressions que va haver de patir el bosc durant anys, unes pressions que, amb major o menor mesura han gestionat les masses forestals. Cal doncs conèixer quina ha estat la gestió històrica del bosc per entendre’n el seu estat actual i poder escollir la gestió més adequada per conservar-lo.