Vulnerability of mediterranean watersheds to climate change

Desertification is a critical issue for Mediterranean drylands. Climate change is expected to aggravate its extension and severity by reinforcing the biophysical driving forces behind desertification processes: hydrology, vegetation cover and soil erosion. The main objective of this thesis is to assess the vulnerability of Mediterranean watersheds to climate change, by estimating impacts on desertification drivers and the watersheds’ resilience to them. To achieve this objective, a modeling framework capable of analyzing the processes linking climate and the main drivers is developed. The framework couples different models adapted to different spatial and temporal scales. A new model for the event scale is developed, the MEFIDIS model, with a focus on the particular processes governing Mediterranean watersheds. Model results are compared with desertification thresholds to estimate resilience. This methodology is applied to two contrasting study areas: the Guadiana and the Tejo, which currently present a semi-arid and humid climate. The main conclusions taken from this work can be summarized as follows: • hydrological processes show a high sensitivity to climate change, leading to a significant decrease in runoff and an increase in temporal variability; • vegetation processes appear to be less sensitive, with negative impacts for agricultural species and forests, and positive impacts for Mediterranean species; • changes to soil erosion processes appear to depend on the balance between changes to surface runoff and vegetation cover, itself governed by relationship between changes to temperature and rainfall; • as the magnitude of changes to climate increases, desertification thresholds are surpassed in a sequential way, starting with the watersheds’ ability to sustain current water demands and followed by the vegetation support capacity; • the most important thresholds appear to be a temperature increase of +3.5 to +4.5 ºC and a rainfall decrease of -10 to -20 %; • rainfall changes beyond this threshold could lead to severe water stress occurring even if current water uses are moderated, with droughts occurring in 1 out of 4 years; • temperature changes beyond this threshold could lead to a decrease in agricultural yield accompanied by an increase in soil erosion for croplands; • combined changes of temperature and rainfall beyond the thresholds could shift both systems towards a more arid state, leading to severe water stresses and significant changes to the support capacity for current agriculture and natural vegetation in both study areas.

Automatic learning for the classification of chemical reactions and in statistical thermodynamics

This Thesis describes the application of automatic learning methods for a) the classification of organic and metabolic reactions, and b) the mapping of Potential Energy Surfaces(PES). The classification of reactions was approached with two distinct methodologies: a representation of chemical reactions based on NMR data, and a representation of chemical reactions from the reaction equation based on the physico-chemical and topological features of chemical bonds. NMR-based classification of photochemical and enzymatic reactions. Photochemical and metabolic reactions were classified by Kohonen Self-Organizing Maps (Kohonen SOMs) and Random Forests (RFs) taking as input the difference between the 1H NMR spectra of the products and the reactants. The development of such a representation can be applied in automatic analysis of changes in the 1H NMR spectrum of a mixture and their interpretation in terms of the chemical reactions taking place. Examples of possible applications are the monitoring of reaction processes, evaluation of the stability of chemicals, or even the interpretation of metabonomic data. A Kohonen SOM trained with a data set of metabolic reactions catalysed by transferases was able to correctly classify 75% of an independent test set in terms of the EC number subclass. Random Forests improved the correct predictions to 79%. With photochemical reactions classified into 7 groups, an independent test set was classified with 86-93% accuracy. The data set of photochemical reactions was also used to simulate mixtures with two reactions occurring simultaneously. Kohonen SOMs and Feed-Forward Neural Networks (FFNNs) were trained to classify the reactions occurring in a mixture based on the 1H NMR spectra of the products and reactants. Kohonen SOMs allowed the correct assignment of 53-63% of the mixtures (in a test set). Counter-Propagation Neural Networks (CPNNs) gave origin to similar results. The use of supervised learning techniques allowed an improvement in the results. They were improved to 77% of correct assignments when an ensemble of ten FFNNs were used and to 80% when Random Forests were used. This study was performed with NMR data simulated from the molecular structure by the SPINUS program. In the design of one test set, simulated data was combined with experimental data. The results support the proposal of linking databases of chemical reactions to experimental or simulated NMR data for automatic classification of reactions and mixtures of reactions. Genome-scale classification of enzymatic reactions from their reaction equation. The MOLMAP descriptor relies on a Kohonen SOM that defines types of bonds on the basis of their physico-chemical and topological properties. The MOLMAP descriptor of a molecule represents the types of bonds available in that molecule. The MOLMAP descriptor of a reaction is defined as the difference between the MOLMAPs of the products and the reactants, and numerically encodes the pattern of bonds that are broken, changed, and made during a chemical reaction. The automatic perception of chemical similarities between metabolic reactions is required for a variety of applications ranging from the computer validation of classification systems, genome-scale reconstruction (or comparison) of metabolic pathways, to the classification of enzymatic mechanisms. Catalytic functions of proteins are generally described by the EC numbers that are simultaneously employed as identifiers of reactions, enzymes, and enzyme genes, thus linking metabolic and genomic information. Different methods should be available to automatically compare metabolic reactions and for the automatic assignment of EC numbers to reactions still not officially classified. In this study, the genome-scale data set of enzymatic reactions available in the KEGG database was encoded by the MOLMAP descriptors, and was submitted to Kohonen SOMs to compare the resulting map with the official EC number classification, to explore the possibility of predicting EC numbers from the reaction equation, and to assess the internal consistency of the EC classification at the class level. A general agreement with the EC classification was observed, i.e. a relationship between the similarity of MOLMAPs and the similarity of EC numbers. At the same time, MOLMAPs were able to discriminate between EC sub-subclasses. EC numbers could be assigned at the class, subclass, and sub-subclass levels with accuracies up to 92%, 80%, and 70% for independent test sets. The correspondence between chemical similarity of metabolic reactions and their MOLMAP descriptors was applied to the identification of a number of reactions mapped into the same neuron but belonging to different EC classes, which demonstrated the ability of the MOLMAP/SOM approach to verify the internal consistency of classifications in databases of metabolic reactions. RFs were also used to assign the four levels of the EC hierarchy from the reaction equation. EC numbers were correctly assigned in 95%, 90%, 85% and 86% of the cases (for independent test sets) at the class, subclass, sub-subclass and full EC number level,respectively. Experiments for the classification of reactions from the main reactants and products were performed with RFs - EC numbers were assigned at the class, subclass and sub-subclass level with accuracies of 78%, 74% and 63%, respectively. In the course of the experiments with metabolic reactions we suggested that the MOLMAP / SOM concept could be extended to the representation of other levels of metabolic information such as metabolic pathways. Following the MOLMAP idea, the pattern of neurons activated by the reactions of a metabolic pathway is a representation of the reactions involved in that pathway - a descriptor of the metabolic pathway. This reasoning enabled the comparison of different pathways, the automatic classification of pathways, and a classification of organisms based on their biochemical machinery. The three levels of classification (from bonds to metabolic pathways) allowed to map and perceive chemical similarities between metabolic pathways even for pathways of different types of metabolism and pathways that do not share similarities in terms of EC numbers. Mapping of PES by neural networks (NNs). In a first series of experiments, ensembles of Feed-Forward NNs (EnsFFNNs) and Associative Neural Networks (ASNNs) were trained to reproduce PES represented by the Lennard-Jones (LJ) analytical potential function. The accuracy of the method was assessed by comparing the results of molecular dynamics simulations (thermal, structural, and dynamic properties) obtained from the NNs-PES and from the LJ function. The results indicated that for LJ-type potentials, NNs can be trained to generate accurate PES to be used in molecular simulations. EnsFFNNs and ASNNs gave better results than single FFNNs. A remarkable ability of the NNs models to interpolate between distant curves and accurately reproduce potentials to be used in molecular simulations is shown. The purpose of the first study was to systematically analyse the accuracy of different NNs. Our main motivation, however, is reflected in the next study: the mapping of multidimensional PES by NNs to simulate, by Molecular Dynamics or Monte Carlo, the adsorption and self-assembly of solvated organic molecules on noble-metal electrodes. Indeed, for such complex and heterogeneous systems the development of suitable analytical functions that fit quantum mechanical interaction energies is a non-trivial or even impossible task. The data consisted of energy values, from Density Functional Theory (DFT) calculations, at different distances, for several molecular orientations and three electrode adsorption sites. The results indicate that NNs require a data set large enough to cover well the diversity of possible interaction sites, distances, and orientations. NNs trained with such data sets can perform equally well or even better than analytical functions. Therefore, they can be used in molecular simulations, particularly for the ethanol/Au (111) interface which is the case studied in the present Thesis. Once properly trained, the networks are able to produce, as output, any required number of energy points for accurate interpolations.

Characterization of the volatile fraction emitted by phloems of four pinus species by solid-phase microextraction and gas chromatography–mass spectrometry

Pine forests constitute some of the most important renewable resources supplying timber, paper and chemical industries, among other functions. Characterization of the volatiles emitted by different Pinus species has proven to be an important tool to decode the process of host tree selection by herbivore insects, some of which cause serious economic damage to pines. Variations in the relative composition of the bouquet of semiochemicals are responsible for the outcome of different biological processes, such as mate finding, egg-laying site recognition and host selection. The volatiles present in phloem samples of four pine species, P. halepensis, P. sylvestris, P. pinaster and P. pinea, were identified and characterized with the aim of finding possible host-plant attractants for native pests, such as the bark beetle Tomicus piniperda. The volatile compounds emitted by phloem samples of pines were extracted by headspace solid-phase micro extraction, using a 2 cm 50/30 mm divinylbenzene/carboxen/polydimethylsiloxane table flex solid-phase microextraction fiber and its contents analyzed by high-resolution gas chromatography, using flame ionization and a non polar and chiral column phases. The components of the volatile fraction emitted by the phloem samples were identified by mass spectrometry using time-of-flight and quadrupole mass analyzers. The estimated relative composition was used to perform a discriminant analysis among pine species, by means of cluster and principal component analysis. It can be concluded that it is possible to discriminate pine species based on the monoterpenes emissions of phloem samples.

Real time mobile system for support in firefighting environments

Dissertação apresentada na Faculdade de Ciências e Tecnologia da Universidade Nova de Lisboa para a obtenção do grau de Mestre em Engenharia Electrotécnica e de Computadores

Study on the changes of soil chemical characteristics as result of prescribed fire

Every year, particularly during the summer period, the Portuguese forests are devastated by forest fire that destroys their ecosystems. So in order to prevent these forest fires, public and private authorities frequently use methods for the reduction of combustible mass as the prescribed fire and the mechanical vegetation pruning. All of these methods of prevention of forest fires alter the vegetation layer and/or soil [1-2]. This work aimed the study of the variation of some chemical characteristics of soil that suffered prescribed fire. The studied an area was located in the Serra of Cabreira (Figure 1) with 54.6 ha. Twenty sampling points were randomly selected and samples were collected with a shovel before, just after the prescribed fire, and 125 and 196 days after that event. The parameters that were studied were: pH, soil moisture, organic matter and iron, magnesium and potassium total concentration. All the analysis followed International Standard Methodologies. This work allowed to conclude that: a) after the prescribed fire; i) the pH remained practically equal to the the initial value; ii) occurred a slight increase of the average of the organic matter contents and iron total contents; b) at the end of the sampling period compared to the initial values; i) the pH didn´t change significantly; ii) the average of the contents of organic matter decreased; and iii) the average of the total contents of Fe, Mg and K increased.

Prescribed burning impact on forest soil properties – a fuzzy boolean nets approach

The Portuguese northern forests are often and severely affected by wildfires during the Summer season. These occurrences significantly affect and negatively impact all ecosystems, namely soil, fauna and flora. In order to reduce the occurrences of natural wildfires, some measures to control the availability of fuel mass are regularly implemented. Those preventive actions concern mainly prescribed burnings and vegetation pruning. This work reports on the impact of a prescribed burning on several forest soil properties, namely pH, soil moisture, organic matter content and iron content, by monitoring the soil self-recovery capabilities during a one year span. The experiments were carried out in soil cover over a natural site of Andaluzitic schist, in Gramelas, Caminha, Portugal, which was kept intact from prescribed burnings during a period of four years. Soil samples were collected from five plots at three different layers (0–3, 3–6 and 6–18) 1 day before prescribed fire and at regular intervals after the prescribed fire. This paper presents an approach where Fuzzy Boolean Nets (FBN) and Fuzzy reasoning are used to extract qualitative knowledge regarding the effect of prescribed fire burning on soil properties. FBN were chosen due to the scarcity on available quantitative data. The results showed that soil properties were affected by prescribed burning practice and were unable to recover their initial values after one year.

Fuzzy Boolean nets investigation of the alteration of some physical forest soil properties due to a prescribed fire action

Portuguese northern forests are often and severely affected by wildfires during the summer season. Some preventive actions, such as prescribed (or controlled) burnings and clear-cut logging, are often used as a measure to reduce the occurrences of wildfires. In the particular case of Serra da Cabreira forest, due to extremely difficulties in operational field work, the prescribed (or controlled) burning technique is the the most common preventive action used to reduce the existing fuel load amount. This paper focuses on a Fuzzy Boolean Nets analysis of the changes in some forest soil properties, namely pH, moisture and organic matter content, after a controlled fire, and on the difficulties found during the sampling process and how they were overcome. The monitoring process was conducted during a three-month period in Anjos, Vieira do Minho, Portugal, an area located in a contact zone between a two-mica coarse-grained porphyritic granite and a biotite with plagioclase granite. The sampling sites were located in a spot dominated by quartzphyllite with quartz veins whose bedrock is partially altered and covered by slightly thick humus, which maintains low undergrowth vegetation.

Soil attributes dynamics evaluation after prescribed burning practice in northwestern Portugal forest

The Portuguese northern forests are often and severely affected by wildfires during the summer season. These occurrences affect significant and rudely all ecosystems, namely soil, fauna and flora. Preventive actions such as prescribed burnings and clear-cut logging are frequently used and have showed a significant reduction of the natural wildfires occurrences. In Portugal, and due to some technical and operational conditions, prescribed burnings in forests are the most common preventive action used to reduce the existing fuel hazard. The overall impacts of this preventive action on Portuguese ecosystems are complex and not fully understood. This work reports to the study of a prescribed burning impact in soil chemical properties, namely pH, humidity and organic matter, by monitoring the soil self-recovery capacity. The experiments were carried out in soil cover over a natural site of Andaluzitic schist, in Gramelas, Caminha, Portugal, who was able to maintain itself intact from prescribed burnings from four years. The composed soil samples were collected from five plots at three different layers (0-3cm, 3-6cm and 6-18cm) 1 day before prescribed fire and after the prescribed fire. The results have shown that the dynamic equilibrium in soil was affected significantly.

Le gisement de Asseiceira, Portugal (Miocène supérieur) Données complémentaires sur Freiria de Rio Maior

A new upper Miocene locality at Asseiceira (Rio Maior), near the top of the "Calcários de Almoster e Santarém" unit (Almoster and Santarém limestones) is studied. Animal and plant fossils are described. Comparisons are drawn to other localities related to the same unit: Freiria and Azambujeira (middle and upper levels, both with large mammals). Small mammals from Asseiceira and Freiria point out to a rather old age amidst the upper Vallesian, MN 10 mammal-unit. This gives a fairly accurate datation for the "Calcários de Almoster e Santarém" and for the short time span of the corresponding sedimentation. Climate was warm and quite dry, with contrasting seasons and arid events. During upper Vallesian times, climate in Iberian Peninsula was varied but drier than in France, and specially so in the inner basins. However in Portugal and in Catalonia climate would he less different in comparison with that of the Rhône basin. Environmental evolution has been important: at Freiria and Azambujeira (middle level) there were mainly shallow lacustrine environments that received ressurgence waters from the nearby "Maciço calcário". Humid areas were closely surrounded by dense forests and these by broader and drier savanna or steppe areas. Still later, carbonate sedimentation ended. For some time there was still a river system with oxbows; humid areas probably were decreasing in favour of surrounding, rather dry environments. This study stressed the nced for revision of the geology of the region of Rio Maior and for a new geological mapping of that area. Environmental evolution has been important: at Freiria and Azambujeira (middle level) there were mainly shallow lacustrine environments that received ressurgence waters from the nearby "Maciço calcário".

The Cristo Rei section (Lower Miocene). Distal fluviatile environments in a marine series, plants, vertebrates and other evidence, age

The section at Cristo Rei shows sandy beds with intercalated clayey lenses (IVb division from the Lisbon Miocene series) that correspond to a major regression event dated from between ca. 17.6 and 17 Ma. They also correspond to a distal position (relatively to the typical fluviatile facies in Lisbon), nearer the basin's axis. Geologic data and paleontological analysis (plant fossils, fishes, crocodilians, land mammals) allow the reconstruction of environments that were represented in the concerned area: estuary with channels and ox-bows; upstream, areas occupied by brackish waters where Gryphaea griphoides banks developped; still farther upstream, freshwaters sided by humid forests and low mountain subtropical forests under warm temperate and rainy conditions, as well as not far away, seasonally dry environments (low density tree or shrub cover, or steppe).

Using data mining techniques to support breast cancer diagnosis

More than ever, there is an increase of the number of decision support methods and computer aided diagnostic systems applied to various areas of medicine. In breast cancer research, many works have been done in order to reduce false-positives when used as a double reading method. In this study, we aimed to present a set of data mining techniques that were applied to approach a decision support system in the area of breast cancer diagnosis. This method is geared to assist clinical practice in identifying mammographic findings such as microcalcifications, masses and even normal tissues, in order to avoid misdiagnosis. In this work a reliable database was used, with 410 images from about 115 patients, containing previous reviews performed by radiologists as microcalcifications, masses and also normal tissue findings. Throughout this work, two feature extraction techniques were used: the gray level co-occurrence matrix and the gray level run length matrix. For classification purposes, we considered various scenarios according to different distinct patterns of injuries and several classifiers in order to distinguish the best performance in each case described. The many classifiers used were Naïve Bayes, Support Vector Machines, k-nearest Neighbors and Decision Trees (J48 and Random Forests). The results in distinguishing mammographic findings revealed great percentages of PPV and very good accuracy values. Furthermore, it also presented other related results of classification of breast density and BI-RADS® scale. The best predictive method found for all tested groups was the Random Forest classifier, and the best performance has been achieved through the distinction of microcalcifications. The conclusions based on the several tested scenarios represent a new perspective in breast cancer diagnosis using data mining techniques.

Estudo comparativo da utilização do biodiesel produzido a partir de óleos alimentares usados e do gasóleo numa frota industrial

A definição de teores mínimos de incorporação de biocombustíveis, constitui objeto de discussão entre grupos pro-desenvolvimento e ambientalistas. Esses últimos argumentam que as consequências da utilização desta fonte energética ainda são desconhecidas. Além disso, alegam que a produção de biocombustíveis é, em parte, responsável pelo aumento no preço dos alimentos, encoraja a conversão de florestas em monoculturas e conduz à exploração de trabalhadores em países em desenvolvimento (PEDs). Para responder à dependência energética dos combustíveis de origem fóssil, e ajudar a reduzir as emissões de gases com efeito de estufa, sobretudo no sector dos transportes, o biodiesel produzido a partir de óleos alimentares usados têm sido apontado como uma “solução verde” capaz de minimizar o problema das alterações climáticas e valorizar um resíduo, e simultaneamente conferir ao setor energético um pouco mais de independência. De forma a desmistificar e clarificar um pouco estas premissas, a presente dissertação pretende fazer um estudo de avaliação do impacto da utilização do biodiesel, nomeadamente no que diz respeito às emissões gasosas. Posteriormente realizou-se, tomando como referência uma pequena frota industrial existente, uma análise comparativa dos consumos e emissões dos principais poluentes decorrentes da utilização do biodiesel em diferentes percentagens de incorporação no gasóleo, comparativamente ao gasóleo puro. O trabalho culmina com uma abordagem técnica sobre o comportamento de um veículo equipado com um motor de ignição por compressão, utilizando como biocombustível o biodiesel.

Dynamics of cork mycobiota throughout stopper manufacturing process: from diversity to metabolite

Dissertation presented to obtain the Ph.D degree in Biology

Enzootic transmission of Trypanosoma cruzi and T. rangeli in the Federal District of Brazil

The Federal District of Brazil (DF) lies within the Cerrado biome, where open shrubland (savannas) is interspersed with riverside gallery forests and permanent swamps (veredas). Trypanosoma cruzi-infected native triatomines occur in the area, but the enzootic transmission of trypanosomatids remains poorly characterized. A parasitological survey involving sylvatic triatomines (166 Rhodnius neglectus collected from Mauritia flexuosa palms) and small mammals (98 marsupials and 70 rodents, totaling 18 species) was conducted in 18 sites (mainly gallery forests and veredas) of the DF. Parasites were isolated, morphologically identified, and characterized by PCR of nuclear (mini-exon gene) and kinetoplast DNA (kDNA). Six R. neglectus, seven Didelphis albiventris and one Akodon cursor were infected by trypanosomes; wild reservoir infection is documented for the first time in the DF. kDNA PCR detected T. cruzi in five R. neglectus and mini-exon gene PCR revealed T. cruzi I in isolates from D. albiventris. Parasites infecting one bug yielded T. rangeli KP1+ kDNA amplicons. In spite of the occurrence of T. cruzi-infected D. albiventris (an important wild and peridomestic reservoir) and R. neglectus (a secondary vector displaying synanthropic behavior), a low-risk of human Chagas disease transmission could be expected in the DF, considering the low prevalence infection recorded in this work. The detection of T. rangeli KP1+ associated with R. neglectus in the DF widens the known range of this parasite in Brazil and reinforces the hypothesis of adaptation of T. rangeli populations (KP1+ and KP1-) to distinct evolutionary Rhodnius lineages.

Mayaro virus: imported cases of human infection in São Paulo State, Brazil

Mayaro virus (MAYV) is an arbovirus (Togaviridae: Alphavirus) enzootic in tropical South America and maintained in a sylvan cycle involving wild vertebrates and Haemagogus mosquitoes. MAYV cases occur sporadically in persons with a history of recent activities inside or around forests. This paper reports three cases of MAYV fever detected in men infected in Camapuã, MS, Brazil. Serum samples collected at four days and two months after the onset of the symptoms and examined by hemagglutination inhibition test, revealed monotypic seroconversion to MAYV. Isolation of the virus was obtained from one of the samples by inoculation of the first blood samples into newborn mice. A suspension of the infected mouse brain was inoculated into C6/36 cells culture and the virus was identified by indirect immunofluorescent assay with alphavirus polyclonal antibodies. RT-PCR, performed with RNA extracted from the supernatant of C6/36 infected cells in the presence of alphavirus generic primers as well as specific MAYV primers, confirmed these results. The reported cases illustrate the importance of laboratory confirmation in establishing a correct diagnosis. Clinical symptoms are not always indicative of a disease caused by an arbovirus. Also MAYV causes febrile illness, which may be mistaken for dengue.