997 resultados para Epidemiological modelling
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Yhteenveto: Laajan merialueen dynamiikan mallintaminen
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Void breaking and formation in a packed bed are important phenomena in stabilising and optimising the performance of reactors such as the blast furnace, spouted bed and catalytic regenerator. These phenomena have been studied using a mathematical model. The model is based on a previously published force balance approach to predict the cavity size. Limited numbers of experiments, at room temperature, have been carried out in order to compare the experimental results with theory. A good agreement has been found between the experimental and theoretical results. In addition, the predictions have been compared with published data, which give reasonable agreement. The role of various forces (friction, pressure and bed weight) on void initiation and breaking has been investigated. The effect of bed height, particle diameter and density, void fraction, as well as gas flow rate on void formation and breaking has also been studied.
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Alcohol and other substance use disorders (SUDs) result in great costs and suffering for individuals and families and constitute a notable public health burden. A multitude of factors, ranging from biological to societal, are associated with elevated risk of SUDs, but at the level of individuals, one of the best predictors is a family history of SUDs. Genetically informative twin and family studies have consistently indicated this familial risk to be mainly genetic. In addition, behavioral and temperamental factors such as early initiation of substance use and aggressiveness are associated with the development of SUDs. These familial, behavioral and temperamental risk factors often co-occur, but their relative importance is not well known. People with SUDs have also been found to differ from healthy controls in various domains of cognitive functioning, with poorer verbal ability being among the most consistent findings. However, representative population-based samples have rarely been used in neuropsychological studies of SUDs. In addition, both SUDs and cognitive abilities are influenced by genetic factors, but whether the co-variation of these traits might be partly explained by overlapping genetic influences has not been studied. Problematic substance use also often co-occurs with low educational level, but it is not known whether these outcomes share part of their underlying genetic influences. In addition, educational level may moderate the genetic etiology of alcohol problems, but gene-environment interactions between these phenomena have also not been widely studied. The incidence of SUDs peaks in young adulthood rendering epidemiological studies in this age group informative. This thesis investigated cognitive functioning and other correlates of SUDs in young adulthood in two representative population-based samples of young Finnish adults, one of which consisted of monozygotic and dizygotic twin pairs enabling genetically informative analyses. Using data from the population-based Mental Health in Early Adulthood in Finland (MEAF) study (n=605), the lifetime prevalence of DSM-IV any substance dependence or abuse among persons aged 21—35 years was found to be approximately 14%, with a majority of the diagnoses being alcohol use disorders. Several correlates representing the domains of behavioral and affective factors, parental factors, early initiation of substance use, and educational factors were individually associated with SUDs. The associations between behavioral and affective factors (attention or behavior problems at school, aggression, anxiousness) and SUDs were found to be largely independent of factors from other domains, whereas daily smoking and low education were still associated with SUDs after adjustment for behavioral and affective factors. Using a wide array of neuropsychological tests in the MEAF sample and in a subsample (n=602) of the population-based FinnTwin16 (FT16) study, consistent evidence of poorer verbal cognitive ability related to SUDs was found. In addition, participants with SUDs performed worse than those without disorders in a task assessing psychomotor processing speed in the MEAF sample, whereas no evidence of more specific cognitive deficits was found in either sample. Biometrical structural equation models of the twin data suggested that both alcohol problems and verbal ability had moderate heritabilities (0.54—0.72), and that their covariation could be explained by correlated genetic influences (genetic correlations -0.20 to -0.31). The relationship between educational level and alcohol problems, studied in the full epidemiological FT16 sample (n=4,858), was found to reflect both genetic correlation and gene-environment interaction. The co-occurrence of low education and alcohol problems was influenced by overlapping genetic factors. In addition, higher educational level was associated with increased relative importance of genetic influences on alcohol problems, whereas environmental influences played a more important role in young adults with lower education. In conclusion, SUDs, especially alcohol abuse and dependence, are common among young Finnish adults. Behavioral and affective factors are robustly related to SUDs independently of many other factors, and compared to healthy peers, young adults who have had SUDs during their life exhibit significantly poorer verbal cognitive ability, and possibly less efficient psychomotor processing. Genetic differences between individuals explain a notable proportion of individual differences in risk of alcohol dependence, verbal ability, and educational level, and the co-occurrence of alcohol problems with poorer verbal cognition and low education is influenced by shared genetic backgrounds. Finally, various environmental factors related to educational level in young adulthood moderate the relative importance of genetic factors influencing the risk of alcohol problems, possibly reflecting differences in social control mechanisms related to educational level.
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Merkel cell carcinoma (MCC) is a rare cutaneous malignancy that occurs predominantly on sun exposed skin areas. A new polyomavirus (MCPyV) was identified in MCC tumor tissues in 2008 suggesting that a viral infection might be an etiological factor. A typical MCC is a rapidly growing painless purple nodule. In its early stage it can be misjudged by its appearance as a cyst or abscess. Recurrences are common and approximately half of the patients will develop lymph node metastases and third of the patents will have distant metastases. It affects mostly elderly persons at an average age of 70 at the time of diagnosis. MCC was first described in 1972 and the first MCC patient in Finland was identified in 1983. MCC has been poorly recognized, but increased awareness and better diagnostic accuracy has increased the incidence since the early years. In this study, all cases with a notation of MCC during 1979 2008 were obtained from the Finnish Cancer Registry. Based on this data, the incidence is 0.11 for men and 0.12 for women. It is similar than that of other Nordic countries, but lower than in the USA. For clinical series, the files of patients diagnosed with MCC during 1983 2004 were reviewed, and the tissue samples were re-evaluated, if available (n=181). Third of the patients were men, and the most common site of the primary tumor was the head and neck (53%). The majority of the patients (86%) presented with a clinically node-negative (Stage I or II) disease, but the disease recurred in 38% of them. The treatment schemes were heterogeneous. No additional benefit from a wide margin (≥2 cm) was found compared to a margin of 0.1-1.9 cm, but intralesional excision was more often associated with local recurrence. None of the patients with Stage I-II disease who had received postoperative radiotherapy had local recurrence during the follow-up period. The 5-year relative survival ratio for Stage I disease was 68%, for Stage II 67%, for Stage III 16%, and for Stage IV 0%. The relative excess risk of death was significantly lower among women than among men. Some of these tissue samples were further analyzed for vascular invasion (n=126) by immunohistochemistry using vascular endothelial markers CD-31 and D2-40. Vascular invasion was seen in 93% of the samples and it was observed already in very small, <5mm tumors. The tissue samples were also analyzed for the presence of MCPyV by using a polymerase chain reaction (PCR) and quantitative PCR. MCPyV DNA was present in 80% of 114 samples studied. The patients with virus-positive tumors had better overall survival than patients with virus-negative tumors. Immunohistochemical analyses were performed for the expression of VEGFR-2 (n=21) and endostatin (n=19), but they had no prognostic value. Our results support the concept of treating MCC with margin-negative excision and radiotherapy to the tumor bed to reduce local recurrence. The finding of a high frequency of lymphovascular invasion reduces its value as a prognostic factor, but emphasizes the role of sentinel node biopsy even in very small primary MCC.
Identification and Epidemiological Typing of Campylobacter strains isolated from Patients in Finland
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C. jejuni constitutes the majority of Campylobacter strains isolated from patients in Finland, and C. coli strains are also reported. To improve the species identification, a combination of phenotype- and genotype-based methods was applied. Standardising the cell suspension turbidity in the hippurate hydrolysis test enabled the reliable identification of hippurate-positive Campylobacter strains as C. jejuni. The detection of species-specific genes by PCR showed that about 30% of the hippurate-negative strains were C. jejuni. Three typing methods, serotyping, PCR-RFLP analysis of LOS biosynthesis genes and pulsed-field gel electrophoresis (PFGE) were evaluated as epidemiological typing tools for C. jejuni. The high number of non-typeable strains lowered the discriminatory ability of serotyping. PCR-RFLP typing offered high discrimination for both serotypeable and non-typeable strains, but the correlation between serotypes and RFLP-types was not high enough to enable its use for molecular serotyping of non-typeable strains. PFGE was a highly discriminative typing method. Although the use of two restriction enzymes generally increases the discriminatory ability, KpnI alone offered almost as high discrimination as the use of SmaI and KpnI. The characteristic seasonal distribution of Campylobacter infections with a peak in summer and low incidence in winter was mainly due to domestically acquired infections. Of the C. jejuni strains, 41% were of domestic origin compared to only 17% of the C. coli strains. Serotypes Pen 12, Pen 6,7 and Pen 27 were significantly associated with domestic C. jejuni infections, Pen 1,44, Pen 3 and Pen 37 with travel-related infections. Pen 2 and Pen 4-complex were common both in domestic and travel-related infections. Serotype Pen 2 was less common among patients 60 years or older than in younger patients, more prevalent in Western Finland than in other parts of the country and more prevalent than other serotypes in winter. The source of Pen 2 infections may be related to cattle, since Pen 2 is the most common serotype in isolates from Finnish cattle. PFGE subtypes among isolates from patients and chickens during the summer 2003 and from cattle during the whole year were compared. The analysis of indistinguishable SmaI/KpnI subtypes suggested that up to 31% of the human infections may have been mediated by chickens and 19% by cattle. Human strains isolated during two one-year sampling periods were studied by PFGE. Of the domestic strains, 69% belonged to SmaI subtypes found during both sampling periods. Four SmaI subtypes accounted for 45% of the domestic strains, further typing of these subtypes by KpnI revealed six temporally persistent SmaI/KpnI subtypes. They were only occasionally identified in travel-related strains, and therefore, can be considered to be national subtypes. Each subtype was associated with a serotype: Pen 2, Pen 12, Pen 27, Pen 4-complex, Pen 41, and Pen 57. Five of these subtypes were identified in cattle (S5/K27, S7/K1, S7/K2, S7/K5 and S64/K19), and two in chickens (S7/K1 and S64/K19) with a temporal association with human infections in 2003. Cattle are more likely potential sources of these persistent subtypes, since long-term excretion of Campylobacter strains by cattle has been reported.
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A higher-order theory of laminated composites under in-plane loads is developed. The displacement field is expanded in terms of the thickness co-ordinate, satisfying the zero shear stress condition at the surfaces of the laminate. Using the principle of virtual displacement, the governing equations and boundary conditions are established. Numerical results for interlaminar stresses arising in the case of symmetric laminates under uniform extension have been obtained and are compared with similar results available in the literature.
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We investigate the chemical weathering processes and fluxes in a small experimental watershed (SEW) through a modelling approach. The study site is the Mule Hole SEW developed on a gneissic basement located in the climatic gradient of the Western Ghats, South India. The model couples a lumped hydrological model simulating the water budget at the watershed scale to the WITCH model estimating the dissolution/precipitation rates of minerals using laboratory kinetic laws. Forcing functions and parameters of the simulation are defined by the field data. The coupled model is calibrated with stream and groundwater compositions through the testing of a large range of smectite solubility and abundance in the soil horizons. We found that, despite the low abundance of smectite in the dominant soil type of the watershed (4 vol.%), their net dissolution provides 75% of the export of dissolved silica, while primary silicate mineral dissolution releases only 15% of this flux. Overall, smectites (modelled as montmorillonites) are not stable under the present day climatic conditions. Furthermore, the dissolution of trace carbonates in the saprolitic horizon provides 50% of the calcium export at the watershed scale. Modelling results show the contrasted behavior of the two main soil types of the watershed: red soils (88% of the surface) are provider of calcium, while black soils (smectite-rich and characterized by a lower drainage) consumes calcium through overall carbonate precipitation. Our model results stress the key role played by minor/accessory minerals and by the thermodynamic properties of smectite minerals, and by the drainage of the weathering profiles on the weathering budget of a tropical watershed. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
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A sensitive framework has been developed for modelling young radiata pine survival, its growth and its size class distribution, from time of planting to age 5 or 6 years. The data and analysis refer to the Central North Island region of New Zealand. The survival function is derived from a Weibull probability density function, to reflect diminishing mortality with the passage of time in young stands. An anamorphic family of trends was used, as very little between-tree competition can be expected in young stands. An exponential height function was found to fit best the lower portion of its sigmoid form. The most appropriate basal area/ha exponential function included an allometric adjustment which resulted in compatible mean height and basal area/ha models. Each of these equations successfully represented the effects of several establishment practices by making coefficients linear functions of site factors, management activities and their interactions. Height and diameter distribution modelling techniques that ensured compatibility with stand values were employed to represent the effects of management practices on crop variation. Model parameters for this research were estimated using data from site preparation experiments in the region and were tested with some independent data sets.
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Factor V Leiden (FV Leiden) is the most common inherited thrombophilia in Caucasians increasing the risk for venous thrombosis. Its prevalence in Finland is 2-3%. FV Leiden has also been associated with several pregnancy complications. However, the importance of FV Leiden as their risk factor is unclear. The aim of the study was to assess FV Leiden as a risk factor for pregnancy complications in which prothrombotic mechanisms may play a part. Specifically, the study aimed to assess the magnitude of the risk, if any, associated with FV Leiden for pregnancy-associated venous thrombosis, pre-eclampsia, unexplained stillbirth, and preterm birth. The study was conducted as a nested case-control study within a fixed cohort of 100,000 consecutive pregnant women in Finland. The study was approved by the ethics committee of the Finnish Red Cross Blood Service and by the Ministry of Social Affairs and Health. All participants gave written informed consent. Cases and controls were identified by using national registers. The diagnoses of the 100,000 women identified from the National Register of Blood Group and Blood Group Antibodies of Pregnant Women were obtained from the National Hospital Discharge Register. Participants gave blood samples for DNA tests and filled in questionnaires. The medical records of the participants were reviewed in 49 maternity hospitals in Finland. Genotyping was performed in the Finnish Genome Center. When evaluating pregnancy-associated venous thrombosis (34 cases, 641 controls), FV Leiden was associated with 11-fold risk (OR 11.6, 95% CI 3.6-33.6). When only analyzing women with first venous thrombosis, the risk was 6-fold (OR 5.8, 95% CI 1.6-21.8). The risk was increased by common risk factors, the risk being highest in women with FV Leiden and pre-pregnancy BMI over 30 kg/m2 (75-fold), and in women with FV Leiden and age over 35 years (60-fold). When evaluating pre-eclampsia (248 cases, 679 controls), FV Leiden was associated with a trend of increased risk (OR 1.7, 95% CI 0.8-3.9), but the association was not statistically significant. When evaluating unexplained stillbirth (44 cases, 776 controls), FV Leiden was associated with over 3-fold risk (OR 3.8, 95% CI 1.2-11.6). When evaluating preterm birth (324 cases, 752 controls), FV Leiden was associated with over 2-fold risk (OR 2.4, 95% CI 1.3-4.6). FV Leiden was especially associated with late preterm birth (32-36 weeks of gestation), but not with early preterm birth (< 32 weeks of gestation). The results of this large population-based study can be generalized to Finnish women with pregnancies continuing beyond first trimester, and may be applied to Caucasian women in populations with similar prevalence of FV Leiden and high standard prenatal care.
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X-ray synchrotron radiation was used to study the nanostructure of cellulose in Norway spruce stem wood and powders of cobalt nanoparticles in cellulose support. Furthermore, the growth of metallic clusters was modelled and simulated in the mesoscopic size scale. Norway spruce was characterized with x-ray microanalysis at beamline ID18F of the European Synchrotron Radiation Facility in Grenoble. The average dimensions and the orientation of cellulose crystallites was determined using x-ray microdiffraction. In addition, the nutrient element content was determined using x-ray fluorescence spectroscopy. Diffraction patterns and fluorescence spectra were simultaneously acquired. Cobalt nanoparticles in cellulose support were characterized with x-ray absorption spectroscopy at beamline X1 of the Deutsches Elektronen-Synchrotron in Hamburg, complemented by home lab experiments including x-ray diffraction, electron microscopy and measurement of magnetic properties with a vibrating sample magnetometer. Extended x-ray absorption fine structure spectroscopy (EXAFS) and x-ray diffraction were used to solve the atomic arrangement of the cobalt nanoparticles. Scanning- and transmission electron microscopy were used to image the surfaces of the cellulose fibrils, where the growth of nanoparticles takes place. The EXAFS experiment was complemented by computational coordination number calculations on ideal spherical nanocrystals. The growth process of metallic nanoclusters on cellulose matrix is assumed to be rather complicated, affected not only by the properties of the clusters themselves, but essentially depending on the cluster-fiber interfaces as well as the morphology of the fiber surfaces. The final favored average size for nanoclusters, if such exists, is most probably a consequence of these two competing tendencies towards size selection, one governed by pore sizes, the other by the cluster properties. In this thesis, a mesoscopic model for the growth of metallic nanoclusters on porous cellulose fiber (or inorganic) surfaces is developed. The first step in modelling was to evaluate the special case of how the growth proceeds on flat or wedged surfaces.
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The mechanism of action of ribonuclease (RNase) T1 is still a matter of considerable debate as the results of x-ray, 2-D nmr and site-directed mutagenesis studies disagree regarding the role of the catalytically important residues. Hence computer modelling studies were carried out by energy minimisation of the complexes of RNase T1 and some of its mutants (His40Ala, His40Lys, and Glu58Ala) with the substrate guanyl cytosine (GpC), and of native RNase T1 with the reaction intermediate guanosine 2',3'-cyclic phosphate (G greater than p). The puckering of the guanosine ribose moiety in the minimum energy conformer of the RNase T1-GpC (substrate) complex was found to be O4'-endo and not C3'-endo as in the RNase T1-3'-guanylic acid (inhibitor/product) complex. A possible scheme for the mechanism of action of RNase T1 has been proposed on the basis of the arrangement of the catalytically important amino acid residues His40, Glu58, Arg77, and His92 around the guanosine ribose and the phosphate moiety in the RNase T1-GpC and RNase T1-G greater than p complexes. In this scheme, Glu58 serves as the general base group and His92 as the general acid group in the transphosphorylation step. His40 may be essential for stabilising the negatively charged phosphate moiety in the enzyme-transition state complex.
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This paper deals with the two-dimensional electric field modelling and electric field stress calculations of different types of composite insulators used in high voltage distribution and transmission systems. The computer simulations are carried out by using a commercially available software package. The potential and electric filed results obtained for the actual insulator profiles for three types of composite/polymeric insulators are discussed and presented.
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One of the most important factors that affect the pointing of precision payloads and devices in space platforms is the vibration generated due to static and dynamic unbalanced forces of rotary equipments placed in the neighborhood of payload. Generally, such disturbances are of low amplitude, less than 1 kHz, and are termed as ‘micro-vibrations’. Due to low damping in the space structure, these vibrations have long decay time and they degrade the performance of payload. This paper addresses the design, modeling and analysis of a low frequency space frame platform for passive and active attenuation of micro-vibrations. This flexible platform has been designed to act as a mount for devices like reaction wheels, and consists of four folded continuous beams arranged in three dimensions. Frequency and response analysis have been carried out by varying the number of folds, and thickness of vertical beam. Results show that lower frequencies can be achieved by increasing the number of folds and by decreasing the thickness of the blade. In addition, active vibration control is studied by incorporating piezoelectric actuators and sensors in the dynamic model. It is shown using simulation that a control strategy using optimal control is effective for vibration suppression under a wide variety of loading conditions.