The limitations of policy coordination in the euro area under the European Semester. Bruegel Policy Contribution 2015/19, November 2015

The European Semester is a yearly process of the European Union to improve economic policy coordination and ensure the implementation of the EU’s economic rules. Each Semester concludes with recommendations for the euro area as a whole and for each EU member state. We show that implementation of recommendations was poor at the beginning of the Semester in 2011, and has deteriorated since. The European Semester is not particularly effective at enforcing even the EU’s fiscal and macroeconomic imbalance rules. We find that euro-area recommendations with tangible economic goals are not well reflected in the recommendations issued to member states. Finally, we review various proposals to improve the efficiency of the European Semester and conclude that while certain steps could be helpful, policy coordination will likely continue to have major limitations.

Squaring the cycle: capital flows, financial cycles, and macro-prudential policy in the euro area. Bruegel Working Paper 2015/14, November 2015

• Before the financial and economic crisis, monetary policy unification and interest rate convergence resulted in the divergence of euroarea countries’ financial cycles. This divergence is deeply rooted in the financial integration spurred by currency union and strongly correlated with intra-euro area capital flows. Macro-prudential policy will need to deal with potentially divergent financial cycles, while catering for potential cross-border spillovers from domestic policies, which domestic authorities have little incentive to internalise. • The current framework is unfit to deal effectively with these challenges. The European Central Bank should be responsible for consistent and coherent application of macro-prudential policy, with appropriate divergences catering for national differences in financial conditions. The close link between domestic financial cycles and intra-euro area capital flows raises the question of whether macro-prudential policy in the euro area can be compatible with free flows of capital. Financial cycle divergence had its counterpart in the build-up of macroeconomic imbalances, so effective implementation of the Macroeconomic Imbalance Procedure would support and strengthen macro-prudential policy.

Economic Policy Coordination in the Euro Area under the European Semester. CEPS Special Report No. 123, December 2015

The implementation record of the Country Specific Recommendations (CSRs) has declined over time, as financial turbulence lessened and the economic outlook started to improve. Urgency for reforms seemingly receded to leave room to request member states to move towards more accommodative stances. It is mainly the small countries that implement, at least partially, the recommendations addressed to them. Unfortunately, there is little that the EU can do to change the status quo. Yet, the President of the Eurogroup could be held accountable for the implementation of the recommendations addressed to the euro area. The creation of National Competitiveness Boards risks making the European Semester even more complex and likely to have little impact in the countries that need them most, namely large countries and those with poor governance. To make it effective, a procedure would be needed to make national wage norms consistent at the euro-area level, which may be a very difficult objective to achieve.

The Impact of the ECB’s Asset Purchase Programmes on Sovereign Bond Spreads in the Euro Area. Bruges European Economic Research Papers 35/2015

This paper estimates the immediate impact of the European Central Bank’s asset purchase programmes on sovereign bond spreads in the euro area between 2008 and 2015 using a country-by-country GARCH model. The baseline estimates are rigorously diagnosed for misspecification and subjected to a wide range of sensitivity tests. Among others, changes in the dependent variable, the independent variables and the number of (G)ARCH terms are tested. Moreover, the model is applied to subsamples and dynamic conditional correlations are analyzed to estimate the effects of the asset purchases on the contagion of spread movements. Generally, it is found that the asset purchase programmes triggered an reduction of sovereign bond spreads. More specifically, the Securities Markets Programme (SMP) had the most significant immediate effects on sovereign bond spreads across the euro area. The announcements related to the Outright Monetary Transactions (OMT) programme also yielded substantial spread compression in the periphery. In contrast to that, the most recent Public Sector Purchase Programme (PSPP) announced in January 2015 and implemented since March 2015 had no significant immediate effects on sovereign bond spreads, except for Irish spreads. Hence, immediate effects seem to be dependent upon the size of the programme, the extent to which it targets distressed sovereigns and the way in which it is communicated.

Tree line shifts and disturbance events for sites studied in the Torneträsk area of sub-Arctic Sweden for the period 1800-2009

Aim: Models project that climate warming will cause the tree line to move to higher elevations in alpine areas and more northerly latitudes in Arctic environments. We aimed to document changes or stability of the tree line in a sub-Arctic model area at different temporal and spatial scales, and particularly to clarify the ambiguity that currently exists about tree line dynamics and their causes. Location: The study was conducted in the Tornetrask area in northern Sweden where climate warmed by 2.5 °C between 1913 and 2006. Mountain birch (Betula pubescens ssp. czerepanovii) sets the alpine tree line. Methods: We used repeat photography, dendrochronological analysis, field observations along elevational transects and historical documents to study tree line dynamics. Results: Since 1912, only four out of eight tree line sites had advanced: on average the tree line had shifted 24 m upslope (+0.2 m/year assuming linear shifts). Maximum tree line advance was +145 m (+1.5 m/year in elevation and +2.7 m/year in actual distance), whereas maximum retreat was 120 m downslope. Counter-intuitively, tree line advance was most pronounced during the cooler late 1960s and 1970s. Tree establishment and tree line advance were significantly correlated with periods of low reindeer (Rangifer tarandus) population numbers. A decreased anthropozoogenic impact since the early 20th century was found to be the main factor shaping the current tree line ecotone and its dynamics. In addition, episodic disturbances by moth outbreaks and geomorphological processes resulted in descent and long-term stability of the tree line position, respectively. Main conclusions: In contrast to what is generally stated in the literature, this study shows that in a period of climate warming, disturbance may not only determine when tree line advance will occur but if tree line advance will occur at all. In the case of non-climatic climax tree lines, such as those in our study area, both climate-driven model projections of future tree line positions and the use of the tree line position for bioclimatic monitoring should be used with caution.

Biomarker distributions in surface sediments from the Kara and Laptev Seas (Arctic Ocean)

Studies of spatial and temporal changes in modern and past sea-ice occurrence may help to understand the processes controlling the recent decrease in Arctic sea-ice cover. Here, we determined concentrations of IP25, a novel biomarker proxy for sea ice developed in recent years, phytoplankton-derived biomarkers (brassicasterol and dinosterol) and terrigenous biomarkers (campesterol and ß-sitosterol) in the surface sediments from the Kara and Laptev seas to estimate modern spatial (seasonal) sea-ice variability and organic-matter sources. C25-HBI dienes and trienes were determined as additional paleoenvironmental proxies in the study area. Furthermore, a combined phytoplankton-IP25 biomarker approach (PIP25 index) is used to reconstruct the modern sea-ice distribution more quantitatively. The terrigenous biomarkers reach maximum concentrations in the coastal zones and estuaries, reflecting the huge discharge by the major rivers Ob, Yenisei and Lena. Maxima in phytoplankton biomarkers indicating increased primary productivity were found in the seasonally ice-free central part of the Kara and Laptev seas. Neither IP25 nor PIP25, however, show a clear and simple correlation with satellite sea-ice distribution in our study area due to the complex environmental conditions in our study area and the transportation process of sea-ice diatom in the water column. Differences in the diene/IP25 and triene/IP25 ratios point to different sources of these HBIs and different environmental conditions. The diene/IP25 ratio seems to correlate positively with sea-surface temperature, while negatively with salinity distributions.

Time-Resolved Micro PIV in the Pivoting Area of the Triflo Mechanical Heart Valve

The Lapeyre-Triflo FURTIVA valve aims at combining the favorable hemodynamics of bioprosthetic heart valves with the durability of mechanical heart valves (MHVs). The pivoting region of MHVs is hemodynamically of special interest as it may be a region of high shear stresses, combined with areas of flow stagnation. Here, platelets can be activated and may form a thrombus which in the most severe case can compromise leaflet mobility. In this study we set up an experiment to replicate the pulsatile flow in the aortic root and to study the flow in the pivoting region under physiological hemodynamic conditions (CO = 4.5 L/min / CO = 3.0 L/min, f = 60 BPM). It was found that the flow velocity in the pivoting region could reach values close to that of the bulk flow during systole. At the onset of diastole the three valve leaflets closed in a very synchronous manner within an average closing time of 55 ms which is much slower than what has been measured for traditional bileaflet MHVs. Hot spots for elevated viscous shear stresses were found at the flanges of the housing and the tips of the leaflet ears. Systolic VSS was maximal during mid-systole and reached levels of up to 40 Pa.

'Institutional Shopping' for Natural Resource Management in a Protected Area and Indigenous Territory in the Bolivian Amazon.

Focusing on an overlapping protected area and indigenous territory in the Bolivian Amazon, this article discusses how indigenous people continue to negotiate access to natural resources. Using the theoretical framework of New Institutionalism, ethnographic data from participatory observations, and interviews with Takana indigenous resource users and park management staff, we identified four phases of institutional change. We argue that under the current institutionally pluralistic setting in the overlapping area, indigenous users apply “institutional shopping” to choose, according to their power and knowledge, the most advantageous institutional framework in a situation. Indigenous users strategically employed arguments of conservation, indigeneity, or long-term occupation to legitimize their claims based on the chosen institution. Our results highlight the importance of ideologies and bargaining power in shaping the interaction of individuals and institutions. As a potential application of our research to practice, we suggest that rather than seeing institutional pluralism solely as a threat to successful resource management, the strengths of different frameworks may be combined to build robust institutions from the bottom up that are adapted to the local context. This requires taking into account local informal institutions, such as cultural values and beliefs, and integrating them with conservation priorities through cross-cultural participatory planning.

Geology, hydrology, and quality of water in the Madera area, San Joaquin Valley, California /

Three folded maps in pocket.

Streamflow recharge to the Madison Limestone and the Casper Formation in the Glenrock area, east-central Wyoming /

Mode of access: Internet.

Mediaeval architecture in the central area of Corinth.

Mode of access: Internet.

Comparison of numerical and physical models of wave response in a harbor /

"Final Report."