The added value from adopting a CGE approach to analyse changes in environmental trade balances

The application of multi-region environmental input-output (IO) analysis to the problem of accounting for emissions generation (and/or resource use) under different accounting principles has become increasingly common in the ecological and environmental economics literature in particular, with applications at the international and interregional subnational level. However, while environmental IO analysis is invaluable in accounting for pollution flows in the single time period that the accounts relate to, it is limited when the focus is on modelling the impacts of any marginal change in activity. This is because a conventional demand-driven IO model assumes an entirely passive supply-side in the economy (i.e. all supply is infinitely elastic) and is further restricted by the assumption of universal Leontief (fixed proportions) technology implied by the use of the A and multiplier matrices. Where analysis of marginal changes in activity is required, extension from an IO accounting framework to a more flexible interregional computable general equilibrium (CGE) approach, where behavioural relationships can be modelled in a more realistic and theory-consistent manner, is appropriate. Our argument is illustrated by comparing the results of introducing a positive demand stimulus in the UK economy using IO and CGE interregional models of Scotland and the rest of the UK. In the case of the latter, we demonstrate how more theory consistent modelling of both demand and supply side behaviour at the regional and national levels effect model results, including the impact on the interregional CO2 ‘trade balance’.

Do Productivity Improvements Move Us Along the Environmental Kuznets Curve?

The Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesis focuses on the argument that rising prosperity will eventually be accompanied by falling pollution levels as a result of one or more of three factors: (1) structural change in the economy; (2) demand for environmental quality increasing at a more-than-proportional rate; (3) technological progress. Here, we focus on the third of these. In particular, energy efficiency is commonly regarded as a key element of climate policy in terms of achieving reductions in economy-wide CO2 emissions over time. However, a growing literature suggests that improvements in energy efficiency will lead to rebound (or backfire) effects that partially (or wholly) offset energy savings from efficiency improvements. Where efficiency improvements are aimed at the production side of the economy, the net impact of increased efficiency in any input to production will depend on the combination and relative strength of substitution, output/competitiveness, composition and income effects that occur in response to changes in effective and actual factor prices, as well as on the structure of the economy in question, including which sectors are targeted with the efficiency improvement. In this paper we consider whether increasing labour productivity will have a more beneficial, or more predictable, impact on CO2/GDP ratios than improvements in energy efficiency. We do this by using CGE models of the Scottish regional and UK national economies to analyse the impacts of a simple 5% exogenous (and costless) increase in energy or labour augmenting technological progress.

How do improvements in labour productivity in the Scottish economy affect the UK position on the Environmental Kuznets Curve?

The research reported here is an output of Karen Turner’s ESRC Climate Change Leadership Fellow project (Grant reference RES-066-27-0029). However, this research builds on previous work funded by the ESRC on modelling the economic and environmental impacts of technological improvement (Grant reference: RES-061-25-0010) and by the EPSRC through the SuperGen Marine Energy Research Consortium on accounting for and modeling environmental indicators (Grant reference: EP/E040136/1).

An interregional input-output analysis of the pollution content of trade flows and environmental trade balances between five states in the US Mid-West

In this paper we attempt an empirical application of the multi-region input-output (MRIO) method in order to enumerate the pollution content of interregional trade flows between five Mid-West regions/states in the US –Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Michigan and Wisconsin – and the rest of the US. This allows us to analyse some very important issues in terms of the nature and significance of interregional environmental spillovers within the US Mid-West and the existence of pollution ‘trade balances’ between states. Our results raise questions in terms of the extent to which authorities at State level can control local emissions where they are limited in the way some emissions can be controlled, particularly with respect to changes in demand elsewhere in the Mid-West and US. This implies a need for policy co-ordination between national and state level authorities in the US to meet emissions reductions targets. The existence of an environmental trade balances between states also raises issues in terms of net losses/gains in terms of pollutants as a result of interregional trade within the US and whether, if certain activities can be carried out using less polluting technology in one region relative to others, it is better for the US as a whole if this type of relationship exists.

Environmental Degradation and the Limits to LOV

We show how consumers’ environmental concerns may limit ‘love of variety’ (LOV) and be reflected in consumers decisions. We investigate how the impact of environmental degradation on LOV influences demand and optimal product variety, and how a pollution tax on firms might be used to improve upon the market outcome and increase welfare.

Global Warming And Extreme Events: Rethinking The Timing And Intensity Of Environmental Policy

The possibility of low-probability extreme events has reignited the debate over the optimal intensity and timing of climate policy. In this paper we therefore contribute to the literature by assessing the implications of low-probability extreme events on environmental policy in a continuous-time real options model with “tail risk”. In a nutshell, our results indicate the importance of tail risk and call for foresighted pre-emptive climate policies.

First-and second-best allocations under economic and environmental uncertainty

This paper uses a micro-founded DSGE model to compare second-best optimal environmental policy and the resulting allocation to first-best allocation. The focus is on the source and size of uncertainty, and how this affects optimal choices and the inferiority of second best vis-à-vis first best.

Is MDCT enough reliable for the evaluation of acute colitis including the underlying etiology? : correlation with colonoscopy and pathology : P2

Purpose: 1. To assess the diagnostic value of MDCT for acute colitis of various origin confirmed by colonoscopy and histology. 2. To evaluate the accuracy of MDCT of making the correct differential diagnosis. Methods and materials: The electronic hospital database from January 2006 to August 2008 revealed 351 patients with acute colitis of any origin wdetected by colonoscopy. In 85 out of these patients MDCT had been simultaneously performed (delay 3.1 days). Two radiologists jointly reviewed their corresponding CT features without knowledge of pathology and correlated them with the final histological diagnosis. Results: Eighty patients were finally included (46 women, mean age 63.4). Colitis was of ischemic (n = 35, 44%) or infectious (n = 15, 19%) origin. 18 patients (23%) had acute ulcerative colitis or Crohn's disease, in 10 patients (12%) another inflammatory cause and in two patients (2%) post radiation colitis was proven. MDCT was positive in 63 patients (78.9%). In 11 out of the 17 negative MDCT, the examination had been performed without large bowel distention. Ischemic colitis was responsible for 47.1% of the negative MDCT. Correct differential diagnosis was made in 32 (50.7%) out of the 63 positive MDCT. Among the different etiologies, the ischemic colitis was the most often misdiagnosed cause (n = 17, 58.6%). Conclusion: Large bowel distension is mandatory for reliable MDCT detection of acute colitis of any origin. Among the different aetiologies the ischemic cause is the most often associated with false negative MDCT findings and, in case of positive features, the most difficult to recognize as such.

Surfactant protein-D and exposure to bioaerosols in wastewater and garbage workers.

PURPOSE: Bioaerosols and their constituents, such as endotoxins, are capable of causing an inflammatory reaction at the level of the lung-blood barrier, which becomes more permeable. Thus, it was hypothesized that occupational exposure to bioaerosols can increase leakage of surfactant protein-D (SP-D), a lung-specific protein, into the bloodstream. METHODS: SP-D was determined by ELISA in 316 wastewater workers, 67 garbage collectors, and 395 control subjects. Exposure was assessed with four interview-based indicators and by preliminary endotoxin measurements using the Limulus amoebocyte lysate assay. Influence of exposure on serum SP-D was assessed by multiple linear regression considering smoking, glomerular function, lung diseases, obesity, and other confounders. RESULTS: Overall, mean exposure levels to endotoxins were below 100 EU/m(3). However, special tasks of wastewater workers caused higher endotoxin exposure. SP-D concentration was slightly increased in this occupational group and associated with the occurrence of splashes and contact to raw sewage. No effect was found in garbage collectors. Smoking increased serum SP-D. No clinically relevant correlation between spirometry results and SP-D concentrations appeared. CONCLUSIONS: These results support the hypothesis that inhalation of bioaerosols, even at low concentrations, has a subclinical effect on the lung-blood barrier, the permeability of which increases without associated spirometric changes.

Environmental Kuznets Curves for Carbon Emissions: A Critical Survey

The empirical finding of an inverse U-shaped relationship between per capita income and pollution, the so-called Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC), suggests that as countries experience economic growth, environmental deterioration decelerates and thus becomes less of an issue. Focusing on the prime example of carbon emissions, the present article provides a critical review of the new econometric techniques that have questioned the baseline polynomial specification in the EKC literature. We discuss issues related to the functional form, heterogeneity, “spurious” regressions and spatial dependence to address whether and to what extent the EKC can be observed. Despite these new approaches, there is still no clear-cut evidence supporting the existence of the EKC for carbon emissions. JEL classifications: C20; Q32; Q50; O13 Keywords: Environmental Kuznets Curve; Carbon emissions; Functional form; Heterogeneity; “Spurious” regressions; Spatial dependence.Residential satisfaction is often used as a barometer to assess the performance of public policy and programmes designed to raise individuals' well-being. However, the fact that responses elicited from residents might be biased by subjective, non-observable factors casts doubt on whether these responses can be taken as trustable indicators of the individuals' housing situation. Emotional factors such as aspirations or expectations might affect individuals' cognitions of their true residential situation. To disentangle this puzzle, we investigated whether identical residential attributes can be perceived differently depending on tenure status. Our results indicate that tenure status is crucial not only in determining the level of housing satisfaction, but also regarding how dwellers perceive their housing characteristics. Keywords: Housing satisfaction, subjective well-being, homeownership. JEL classification: D1, R2.

Potential schistosome-vector snails and associated trematodes in ricefields of Corrients province, Argentina: preliminary results

Considering the possibility of introduction of schistosomiasis mansoni into Argentina as a consequence of dam construction on the Rio De La Plata basin, preliminary studies have been carried out on agrosystems such as ricefields in Corrientes province with the following purposes: 1) to survey and estimate the relative abundance of planorbids and identify potential vector species; 2) to identify environmental factors capable of influencing Biomphalaria population dynamics; and 3) to find out snail-parasite associations and estimate snail infection rates in order to detect possible competitive interactions between larval stages of native trematodes that could be used in biological control of Schistosoma mansoni. Three potential schistosome vectors were detected in ricefields, namely Biomphalaria straminea, B. tenagophila and B. peregrina, although B. orbignyi, a species refractory to infection with S. mansoni, proved the most frequent and abundant. Positive correlations (P<0.05) were found between Biomphalaria abundance and some environmental parameters: conductivity, hardness, calcium, nitrites plus nitrates, ammonium and bicarbonates. Water temperature correlation was negative (P<0.05). No correlation (P>0.05) was found in total iron, phosphates (SRP), pH and soil granulometry. Echinocercariae developed from rediae and belonging to Petasiger sp., Paryphostomum sp., and other undetermined species were found.

The Effects of Experience on Preference Uncertainty: Theory and Empirics for Public and Quasi-Public Environmental Goods

This paper develop and estimates a model of demand estimation for environmental public goods which allows for consumers to learn about their preferences through consumption experiences. We develop a theoretical model of Bayesian updating, perform comparative statics over the model, and show how the theoretical model can be consistently incorporated into a reduced form econometric model. We then estimate the model using data collected for two environmental goods. We find that the predictions of the theoretical exercise that additional experience makes consumers more certain over their preferences in both mean and variance are supported in each case.

Consumer Behaviour in a Social Context: Implications for Environmental Policy

In this paper we summarise some of our recent work on consumer behaviour, drawing on recent developments in behavioural economics, in which consumers are embedded in a social context, so their behaviour is shaped by their interactions with other consumers. For the purpose of this paper we also allow consumption to cause environmental damage. Analysing the social context of consumption naturally lends itself to the use of game theoretic tools, and indicates that we seek to develop links between economics and sociology rather than economics and psychology, which has been the more predominant field for work in behavioural economics. We shall be concerned with three sets of issues: conspicuous consumption, consumption norms and altruistic behaviour. Our aim is to show that building links between sociological and economic approaches to the study of consumer behaviour can lead to significant and surprising implications for conventional economic policy prescriptions, especially with respect to environmental policy.