Willingness-to-pay for a probabilistic flood forecast: a risk-based decision-making game

Probabilistic hydro-meteorological forecasts have over the last decades been used more frequently to communicate forecastuncertainty. This uncertainty is twofold, as it constitutes both an added value and a challenge for the forecaster and the user of the forecasts. Many authors have demonstrated the added (economic) value of probabilistic over deterministic forecasts across the water sector (e.g. flood protection, hydroelectric power management and navigation). However, the richness of the information is also a source of challenges for operational uses, due partially to the difficulty to transform the probability of occurrence of an event into a binary decision. This paper presents the results of a risk-based decision-making game on the topic of flood protection mitigation, called “How much are you prepared to pay for a forecast?”. The game was played at several workshops in 2015, which were attended by operational forecasters and academics working in the field of hydrometeorology. The aim of this game was to better understand the role of probabilistic forecasts in decision-making processes and their perceived value by decision-makers. Based on the participants’ willingness-to-pay for a forecast, the results of the game show that the value (or the usefulness) of a forecast depends on several factors, including the way users perceive the quality of their forecasts and link it to the perception of their own performances as decision-makers.

Stress, time pressure, and decision making

This study surveys parents with children who are deaf or hard of hearing from one private school in St. Louis, Missouri. The issue of stress and time pressure on decision making is addressed and the importance of how stress and time pressure effect parents’ decisions regarding their children who are deaf and hard of hearing.

Factors associated with health-related quality of life after successful kidney transplantation: a population-based study

Kidney transplantation improves the quality of life of end-stage renal disease patients. The quality of life benefits, however, pertain to patients on average, not to all transplant recipients. The aim of this study was to identify factors associated with health-related quality of life after kidney transplantation. Population-based study with a cross-sectional design was carried out and quality of life was assessed by SF-36 Health Survey Version 1. A multivariate linear regression model was constructed with sociodemographic, clinical and laboratory data as independent variables. Two hundred and seventy-two kidney recipients with a functioning graft were analyzed. Hypertension, diabetes, higher serum creatinine and lower hematocrit were independently and significantly associated with lower scores for the SF-36 oblique physical component summary (PCSc). The final regression model explained 11% of the PCSc variance. The scores of oblique mental component summary (MCSc) were worse for females, patients with a lower income, unemployed and patients with a higher serum creatinine. The regression model explained 9% of the MCSc variance. Among the studied variables, comorbidity and graft function were the main factors associated with the PCSc, and sociodemographic variables and graft function were the main determinants of MCSc. Despite comprehensive, the final regression models explained only a little part of the heath-related quality of life variance. Additional factors, such as personal, environmental and clinical ones might influence quality of life perceived by the patients after kidney transplantation.

Stranger in a Strange Land: The struggle for cultural and personal identity in Haruki Murakami's Hard-Boiled Wonderland and the End of the World

In order to explicate Murakami's version of the official culture, I have analyzed the novel with the works of several different theorists. Primarily, I drew my own understanding of the official culture from Raymond Williams's examination of culture in Marxism and Literature. His terminology became helpful in writing about the operation of the System and the Town, though it did not define that operation precisely. Williams's work also introduced me to the theory behind the official culture's manipulation and exclusion of historical aspects in order to create their "official" version of history, from which the official culture draws its identity. For further analysis of the treatment of history, I turned to Friedrich Nietzsche's On the Advantage and Disadvantage of History for Life. Though it examines the official culture's manipulation of history in a much more in-depth manner, it seems to have influenced Murakami's treatment of individual memories and cultural histories. For instance, the herd ofunicoms in the End of the World resembles Nietzsche's description of the ''unhistorical herd," or has the potential to resemble it. With these theories I was able to access the mechanisms of cultural control that Murakami depicts in the form of the System and the Town, and from there I was able to develop a model for how the narrator struggles to subvert that control. Both sides of that struggle are depicted and re-imagined many times throughout Hard-Boiled Wonderland and the End of the World.