Identidad nacional e intervención extranjera, Nicaragua, 1840-1930

Resumen La autora destaca la complejidad de las relaciones entre los actores locales y los agentes de las potencias externas, sus modos de cooperación, sometimiento y resistencia bajo diversos contextos sociales, asi como los resultados imprevistos o paradójicos de las intervenciones foráneas en la construcción de la idea nacional de Nicaragua Abstract The autor highlights the complexity of relations between local actor and the agents of foreing powers ; their modes of cooperation, submission, and resistance under diverse social contexts; and resistance under diverse social contexts; and the unexpected or paradoxical results of foreign interventions in the construction of the national idea of Nicaragua

ESTUDIO GEOGRÁFICO DE LA CONTAMINACIÓN DE LAS AGUAS DEL RÍO CIRUELAS, HEREDIA-ALAJUELA, COSTA RICA.

Este artículo se deriva de una investigación más amplia sobre la contaminación de la cuenca del río Ciruelas, aplicando métodos y técnicas de investigación geográfica. A partir de la definición de las características físico-naturales, del uso de la tierra, su dinámica y de los análisis físicos, químicos y bacteriológicos de las aguas, se procede a la precisión de áreas críticas. Los resultados obtenidos se incluyen en una cartografía temática de rigurosa elaboración con base en la aplicación de Sistemas de Información Geográfica (SIGs). Finalmente, se entregan una serie de conclusiones y recomendaciones orientadas a mejorar la calidad ambiental de la cuenca del río Ciruelas. ABSTRACT This article derives from a broader research developed by the authors about the Ciruelas river watershed contamination. Applying geographical research methods and techniques. Critical areas are identified after the definition of physical and natural characteristics, land use determination, and the physical, chemical and bacteriological analysis of water and its dynamics. Outcomes are included in a theme cartography of rigorous elaboration based on Geographical Information Systems application. Finally, a series of conclusions and recommendations are given focusing on the improvement of the environmental quality of the Ciruelas river watershed.

Validation of FHWA crash models for rural intersections - Lessons learned

A national-level safety analysis tool is needed to complement existing analytical tools for assessment of the safety impacts of roadway design alternatives. FHWA has sponsored the development of the Interactive Highway Safety Design Model (IHSDM), which is roadway design and redesign software that estimates the safety effects of alternative designs. Considering the importance of IHSDM in shaping the future of safety-related transportation investment decisions, FHWA justifiably sponsored research with the sole intent of independently validating some of the statistical models and algorithms in IHSDM. Statistical model validation aims to accomplish many important tasks, including (a) assessment of the logical defensibility of proposed models, (b) assessment of the transferability of models over future time periods and across different geographic locations, and (c) identification of areas in which future model improvements should be made. These three activities are reported for five proposed types of rural intersection crash prediction models. The internal validation of the model revealed that the crash models potentially suffer from omitted variables that affect safety, site selection and countermeasure selection bias, poorly measured and surrogate variables, and misspecification of model functional forms. The external validation indicated the inability of models to perform on par with model estimation performance. Recommendations for improving the state of the practice from this research include the systematic conduct of carefully designed before-and-after studies, improvements in data standardization and collection practices, and the development of analytical methods to combine the results of before-and-after studies with cross-sectional studies in a meaningful and useful way.

Empirical investigation of interactive highway safety design model accident prediction algorithm : Rural intersections

One major gap in transportation system safety management is the ability to assess the safety ramifications of design changes for both new road projects and modifications to existing roads. To fulfill this need, FHWA and its many partners are developing a safety forecasting tool, the Interactive Highway Safety Design Model (IHSDM). The tool will be used by roadway design engineers, safety analysts, and planners throughout the United States. As such, the statistical models embedded in IHSDM will need to be able to forecast safety impacts under a wide range of roadway configurations and environmental conditions for a wide range of driver populations and will need to be able to capture elements of driving risk across states. One of the IHSDM algorithms developed by FHWA and its contractors is for forecasting accidents on rural road segments and rural intersections. The methodological approach is to use predictive models for specific base conditions, with traffic volume information as the sole explanatory variable for crashes, and then to apply regional or state calibration factors and accident modification factors (AMFs) to estimate the impact on accidents of geometric characteristics that differ from the base model conditions. In the majority of past approaches, AMFs are derived from parameter estimates associated with the explanatory variables. A recent study for FHWA used a multistate database to examine in detail the use of the algorithm with the base model-AMF approach and explored alternative base model forms as well as the use of full models that included nontraffic-related variables and other approaches to estimate AMFs. That research effort is reported. The results support the IHSDM methodology.

Serious tax non compliance : motivation and guardianship

This article reviews what international evidence exists on the impact of civil and criminal sanctions upon serious tax noncompliance by individuals. This construct lacks sharp definitional boundaries but includes large tax fraud and large-scale evasion that are not dealt with as fraud. Although substantial research and theory have been developed on general tax evasion and compliance, their conclusions might not apply to large-scale intentional fraudsters. No scientifically defensible studies directly compared civil and criminal sanctions for tax fraud, although one U.S. study reported that significantly enhanced criminal sanctions have more effects than enhanced audit levels. Prosecution is public, whereas administrative penalties are confidential, and this fact encourages those caught to pay heavy penalties to avoid publicity, a criminal record, and imprisonment.

On the nature of over-dispersion in motor vehicle crash prediction models

Statistical modeling of traffic crashes has been of interest to researchers for decades. Over the most recent decade many crash models have accounted for extra-variation in crash counts—variation over and above that accounted for by the Poisson density. The extra-variation – or dispersion – is theorized to capture unaccounted for variation in crashes across sites. The majority of studies have assumed fixed dispersion parameters in over-dispersed crash models—tantamount to assuming that unaccounted for variation is proportional to the expected crash count. Miaou and Lord [Miaou, S.P., Lord, D., 2003. Modeling traffic crash-flow relationships for intersections: dispersion parameter, functional form, and Bayes versus empirical Bayes methods. Transport. Res. Rec. 1840, 31–40] challenged the fixed dispersion parameter assumption, and examined various dispersion parameter relationships when modeling urban signalized intersection accidents in Toronto. They suggested that further work is needed to determine the appropriateness of the findings for rural as well as other intersection types, to corroborate their findings, and to explore alternative dispersion functions. This study builds upon the work of Miaou and Lord, with exploration of additional dispersion functions, the use of an independent data set, and presents an opportunity to corroborate their findings. Data from Georgia are used in this study. A Bayesian modeling approach with non-informative priors is adopted, using sampling-based estimation via Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) and the Gibbs sampler. A total of eight model specifications were developed; four of them employed traffic flows as explanatory factors in mean structure while the remainder of them included geometric factors in addition to major and minor road traffic flows. The models were compared and contrasted using the significance of coefficients, standard deviance, chi-square goodness-of-fit, and deviance information criteria (DIC) statistics. The findings indicate that the modeling of the dispersion parameter, which essentially explains the extra-variance structure, depends greatly on how the mean structure is modeled. In the presence of a well-defined mean function, the extra-variance structure generally becomes insignificant, i.e. the variance structure is a simple function of the mean. It appears that extra-variation is a function of covariates when the mean structure (expected crash count) is poorly specified and suffers from omitted variables. In contrast, when sufficient explanatory variables are used to model the mean (expected crash count), extra-Poisson variation is not significantly related to these variables. If these results are generalizable, they suggest that model specification may be improved by testing extra-variation functions for significance. They also suggest that known influences of expected crash counts are likely to be different than factors that might help to explain unaccounted for variation in crashes across sites

Fault diagnosis of induction motor based on decision trees and adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference

This paper presents a fault diagnosis method based on adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) in combination with decision trees. Classification and regression tree (CART) which is one of the decision tree methods is used as a feature selection procedure to select pertinent features from data set. The crisp rules obtained from the decision tree are then converted to fuzzy if-then rules that are employed to identify the structure of ANFIS classifier. The hybrid of back-propagation and least squares algorithm are utilized to tune the parameters of the membership functions. In order to evaluate the proposed algorithm, the data sets obtained from vibration signals and current signals of the induction motors are used. The results indicate that the CART–ANFIS model has potential for fault diagnosis of induction motors.

Classification with a reject option using a hinge loss

We consider the problem of binary classification where the classifier can, for a particular cost, choose not to classify an observation. Just as in the conventional classification problem, minimization of the sample average of the cost is a difficult optimization problem. As an alternative, we propose the optimization of a certain convex loss function φ, analogous to the hinge loss used in support vector machines (SVMs). Its convexity ensures that the sample average of this surrogate loss can be efficiently minimized. We study its statistical properties. We show that minimizing the expected surrogate loss—the φ-risk—also minimizes the risk. We also study the rate at which the φ-risk approaches its minimum value. We show that fast rates are possible when the conditional probability P(Y=1|X) is unlikely to be close to certain critical values.

Utilisation of solar energy for building operation

In face of the increasing concern on global warming and climate change, the interests in the utilization of solar energy for building operation are also rapidly growing. In this paper, the importance of using renewable energy in building operations is first discussed. The potential use of solar energy is then reviewed. Possible applications of solar energy in building operation are also discussed, including the use of solar energy in the forms of daylighting, hot water heating, space heating and cooling and building-integrated photovoltaics. Finally, the research activities in the utilization of solar energy for space cooling at QUT are highlighted.

Bollywood Extras

"Bollywood Extras" has been described as a bit like Vladimir Nabokov's "Lolita" (1955) meets Nathanael West's "Day of the Locust" (1939). Unlike those two classics, this new novel by Dr D. Bruno Starrs is set in 21st Century India's Hindi-language film industry epicenter known as 'Bollywood', Mumbai's answer to America's 'Hollywood'. And there is another major difference: the story (i.e. the narrative interaction between an American Extras Casting Agent, 'Dr Arden Pyle', an under-age wannabe Bollywood starlet, 'Chandy', and the despicable but wealthy Indian man who stalks her, 'Ishmail'), is all staged against a backdrop of rabid religious terrorism. Written with the unique black comedic and literary flair Dr D. Bruno Starrs is renown for, this, his 3rd full-length novel, boldly captures the feel of Mumbai and the small-time players in its big-time film industry, with style, humor and originality. Tom Flood, winner of the Miles Franklin Literary Award and founder of Flood Manuscripts, said this of the novel's second last draft: "What is best about 'Bollywood Extras' will likely be its albatross in the sliced bread world of mainstream publishing. Three strengths that make the work what it is - the length, the style, the intellectual capital - will be three strikes against it when it comes to the money. While I delight in rich language and agile invention, I've given you the reasons the trade ('legit') presses won't take 'Bollywood Extras'. Do I think you should you change it? No. I like it. Why ruin an interesting work for money?" As a professional assessor, Flood did, of course, offer many suggestions and these were duly implemented, although the author steadfastly adhered to the style he had already cemented, thus not changing in anyway what Flood refers to as its three strengths. Dr Starrs knew (having accessed Flood's professional services previously) that a 'Thumbs Up' from the best manuscript assessor in the country meant that Bollywood Extras was ready to be birthed. So, here it is: Dr Starrs has delivered his 3rd baby and 'christened' it "Bollywood Extras"!