Application of Intervention Analysis to Evaluate the Impacts of Special Events on Freeways

In China in particular, large, planned special events (e.g., the Olympic Games, etc.) are viewed as great opportunities for economic development. Large numbers of visitors from other countries and provinces may be expected to attend such events, bringing in significant tourism dollars. However, as a direct result of such events, the transportation system is likely to face great challenges as travel demand increases beyond its original design capacity. Special events in central business districts (CBD) in particular will further exacerbate traffic congestion on surrounding freeway segments near event locations. To manage the transportation system, it is necessary to plan and prepare for such special events, which requires prediction of traffic conditions during the events. This dissertation presents a set of novel prototype models to forecast traffic volumes along freeway segments during special events. Almost all research to date has focused solely on traffic management techniques under special event conditions. These studies, at most, provided a qualitative analysis and there was a lack of an easy-to-implement method for quantitative analyses. This dissertation presents a systematic approach, based separately on univariate time series model with intervention analysis and multivariate time series model with intervention analysis for forecasting traffic volumes on freeway segments near an event location. A case study was carried out, which involved analyzing and modelling the historical time series data collected from loop-detector traffic monitoring stations on the Second and Third Ring Roads near Beijing Workers Stadium. The proposed time series models, with expected intervention, are found to provide reasonably accurate forecasts of traffic pattern changes efficiently. They may be used to support transportation planning and management for special events.

Tracer-based assessment of flow paths, storage and runoff generation in northern catchments : a review

Peer reviewed

Lenore Hershey, Editor of the Ladies' Home Journal, speaks with women at 10th Anniversary of being editor

General note: Title and date provided by Bettye Lane.

Lenore Hershey, Editor of the Ladies' Home Journal

General note: Title and date provided by Bettye Lane.

Nancy Berman, Editor of first NYC women's newspaper

General note: Title and date provided by Bettye Lane.

The role of paradigm analysis in the development of policies for a resource efficient economy

Policy makers are often called upon to navigate between scientists’ urgent calls for long-term concerted action to reduce the environmental impacts due to resource use, and the public’s concerns over policies that threaten lifestyles or jobs. Against these political challenges, resource efficiency policy making is often a changeable and even chaotic process, which has fallen short of the political ambitions set by democratically elected governments. This article examines the importance of paradigms in understanding how the public collectively responds to new policy proposals, such as those developed within the project DYNAmic policy MiXes for absolute decoupling of environmental impact of EU resource use from economic growth (DYNAMIX). The resulting proposed approach provides a framework to understand how different concerns and worldviews converge within public discourse, potentially resulting in paradigm change. Thus an alternative perspective on how resource efficiency policy can be development is proposed, which envisages early policies to lay the ground for future far-reaching policies, by altering the underlying paradigm context in which the public receive and respond to policy. The article concludes by arguing that paradigm change is more likely if the policy is conceived, framed, designed, analyzed, presented, and evaluated from the worldview or paradigm pathway that it seeks to create (i.e. the destination paradigm).

Working with people affected by cancer – Phase 1 of a mixed methods exploration of practitioner perspectives in nutritional therapy

Introduction - Nutritional therapy (NT) is a bioscience-based branch of complementary and alternative medicine (CAM) with National Occupational Standards (NOS) and accredited training courses which include compulsory clinical training. Approximately 900 practitioners are registered with the voluntary regulator, the Complementary and Natural Healthcare Council (CNHC), but the number of unregulated practitioners is unknown. Cancer is a leading cause of death worldwide; nutrition and lifestyle factors may affect recurrence and survival rates. Many cancer patients and survivors seek individualised advice on diet and use of supplements and appropriately skilled nutritional therapy practitioners (NTP) may be well-placed to safely provide this advice. Little is known of NTPs’ perspectives on working with people affected by cancer; this study seeks to explore their views on training, use of evidence and other resources, to support the development of safe evidence-based practice in this important clinical area. Methods – An on-line anonymised questionnaire collected data from participants recruited from all UK registered NTPs. Recruitment was facilitated by the British Association for Applied Nutrition and Nutritional Therapy (BANT). Quantitative data on practitioner characteristics, years in practice, other therapies practiced and work with cancer clients were collected. Qualitative data on types of evidence used, barriers to practice and perceived training and support needs when working with clients with cancer, were collected and analysed. SPSS was used to produce descriptive statistics. Preliminary Results – 274/888 (31%) of registered NTPs participated. 61% respondents had accredited NT qualifications of which 46% were at degree or post-graduate level. 73% (202) participants indicated they also had other higher education qualifications, including 153 (56%) at degree or above. When asked to describe their position on cancer work, 17% respondents (40/238) indicated no interest, and 35% (84/238) respondents already work with cancer clients (cancer practitioners - CP). A further 48% (114/238) respondents expressed interest in starting cancer work, and typically requested specialist training and practice guidelines to support this area of clinical practice. Cancer practitioners (CP) rated searches of peer-reviewed literature as most useful for information to support practice, whereas commercial product information was rated least useful. CPs requested engagement with mainstream medicine, more access to research evidence and professional recognition to facilitate and support work with cancer clients. A need for professional networking, mentorship and/or supervision was noted by CP and non-CP respondents, which is of interest since 81% all participants worked as sole practitioners exclusively or as part of their practice, <1% worked within the NHS. Discussion & Conclusions – This is the first detailed documentation of NTP perspectives on cancer work. A number of areas have been identified for further detailed evidence to be collected using focus groups and interviews, including detailed training needs, communication with mainstream cancer professionals, access to research evidence, and professional recognition. This work will inform and support the development of professional practice guidelines for NT and inform the development of specialist training and other resources.

Complexity of risk: Mixed methods approach to understanding youth risk and insecurity in post-conflict settings

In settings of intergroup conflict, identifying contextually-relevant risk factors for youth development in an important task. In Vukovar, Croatia, a city devastated during the war in former Yugoslavia, ethno-political tensions remain. The current study utilized a mixed method approach to identify two salient community-level risk factors (ethnic tension and general antisocial behavior) and related emotional insecurity responses (ethnic and non-ethnic insecurity) among youth in Vukovar. In Study 1, focus group discussions (N=66) with mother, fathers, and adolescents 11 to 15-years-old were analyzed using the Constant Comparative Method, revealing two types of risk and insecurity responses. In Study 2, youth (N=227, 58% male, M=15.88 SD=1.12 years old) responded to quantitative scales developed from the focus groups; discriminate validity was demonstrated and path analyses established predictive validity between each type of risk and insecurity. First, community ethnic tension (i.e., threats related to war/ethnic identity) significantly predicted ethnic insecurity for all youth (β=.41, p&lt;.001). Second, experience with community antisocial behavior (i.e., general crime found in any context) predicted non-ethnic community insecurity for girls (β=.32, p&lt;.05), but not for boys. These findings are the first to show multiple forms of emotional insecurity at the community level; implications for future research are discussed.

Review of dietary assessment methods in public health

This report provides a descriptive summary of tools to measure dietary intake and dietary behaviours - exploring the application, reliability and validity of the various tools.

State-of-the-Art Methods for Design of Integral Bridge Abutments, HR-227, 1981

The routine use of integral abutments to tie bridge superstructures to foundation piling began in this country about 30 years ago. Kansas, Missouri, Ohio, North Dakota, and Tennessee were some of the early users. This method of construction has steadily grown more popular. Today more than half of the state highway agencies have developed design criteria for bridges without expansion joint devices.